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招商证券国际:调低小鹏汽车-W(09868)2025-27年销量3%/6%/11% 维持“增持”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-19 03:25
Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities International maintains a target price of HKD 115 and USD 29 for Xpeng Motors (09868, XPEV.US), while keeping an "Overweight" investment rating, highlighting the company's growth potential through its dual-energy vehicle strategy and accelerated overseas expansion, despite a downward adjustment in sales forecasts due to increased industry competition [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Xpeng Motors reported a narrowing net loss in Q3, with a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter reduction of 78.9% and 20.3% respectively, outperforming expectations [1] - The partnership with Volkswagen has led to higher gross profit income, improving profit margins [1] Group 2: Sales and Production Guidance - The guidance for Q4 deliveries is set between 125,000 and 132,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 37% to 44%, with an average of 43,000 units in the last two months [1] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company is optimistic about expanding its range of extended-range vehicles, while maintaining a cautious stance on its pure electric vehicle models [1] - The collaboration with Volkswagen and accelerated international expansion are expected to continuously improve profitability [1] - Anticipated increases in AI-related research and development investments may exceed market expectations [1]
招商证券国际:调低小鹏汽车-W2025-27年销量3%/6%/11% 维持“增持”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-19 03:24
Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities International maintains a target price of HKD 115 and USD 29 for Xpeng Motors (09868, XPEV.US), while keeping an "Overweight" investment rating, highlighting growth potential driven by a dual-energy vehicle strategy and accelerated overseas expansion, despite a downward revision in sales forecasts due to increased industry competition [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Xpeng Motors reported a narrowing net loss in Q3, with a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter reduction of 78.9% and 20.3% respectively, which was better than expected [1] - The company achieved higher gross profit margins through collaboration with Volkswagen, contributing to improved profitability [1] Group 2: Sales and Production Guidance - The guidance for Q4 indicates expected deliveries of 125,000 to 132,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 37% to 44%, with an average of 43,000 vehicles over the last two months [1] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company is optimistic about expanding its range of extended-range vehicles, while maintaining a cautious stance on its pure electric vehicle models [1] - There is a positive outlook on the collaboration with Volkswagen and the acceleration of overseas expansion, which is expected to continuously improve profitability [1] - Anticipated increased investment in AI-related research and development may exceed market expectations [1]
招商证券国际:升腾讯控股(00700)目标价至766港元 人工智能持续创新驱动强劲增长
智通财经网· 2025-11-18 09:43
该行上调腾讯盈利预测,目前预计集团2025、2026财年预测收入分别同比增长14%、10%,非国际财务 报告准则净利润分别同比增长17%、15%,主要受益于持续的成本控制和AI驱动的效率提升促使利润率 扩张。腾讯2025年三季度业绩超预期:收入同比增长15%,超预期2%;非国际财务报告准则(Non-IFRS) 净利润同比增长18%,超预期7%,受益于各板块利润率改善;所有业务板块均在人工智能赋能下展现出 强劲增长势头。招商证券国际指,腾讯凭借强大的社交网络护城河及AI技术,认为AI智能体、广告、 AI产品商业化、海外机会以及AI驱动的利润率提升将为腾讯带来盈利和估值的上行空间。 智通财经APP获悉,招商证券国际发布研报称,基于盈利预测调整和估值周期前移,将腾讯控股(00700) 目标价由700港元上调至766港元,目标估值倍数保持不变,意味着分别对应2025、2026财年预测市盈率 分别为25倍、22倍;评级增持。腾讯目前2025、2026财年预测市盈率分别为21倍、19倍,分别对比中国 同业的17倍、15倍及美国同业的28倍、28倍。 ...
招商证券国际:升腾讯控股目标价至766港元 人工智能持续创新驱动强劲增长
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 09:42
招商证券国际发布研报称,基于盈利预测调整和估值周期前移,将腾讯控股(00700)目标价由700港元上 调至766港元,目标估值倍数保持不变,意味着分别对应2025、2026财年预测市盈率分别为25倍、22倍; 评级增持。腾讯目前2025、2026财年预测市盈率分别为21倍、19倍,分别对比中国同业的17倍、15倍及 美国同业的28倍、28倍。 该行上调腾讯盈利预测,目前预计集团2025、2026财年预测收入分别同比增长14%、10%,非国际财务 报告准则净利润分别同比增长17%、15%,主要受益于持续的成本控制和AI驱动的效率提升促使利润率 扩张。腾讯2025年三季度业绩超预期:收入同比增长15%,超预期2%;非国际财务报告准则(Non-IFRS) 净利润同比增长18%,超预期7%,受益于各板块利润率改善;所有业务板块均在人工智能赋能下展现出 强劲增长势头。招商证券国际指,腾讯凭借强大的社交网络护城河及AI技术,认为AI智能体、广告、 AI产品商业化、海外机会以及AI驱动的利润率提升将为腾讯带来盈利和估值的上行空间。 ...
招商证券国际:降血脂市场潜力巨大 PCSK9/Lp心血管新药将迎来黄金时代
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 09:20
Core Insights - The lipid-lowering market is projected to reach $35 billion, with some drugs entering the long-term prevention field for cardiovascular event risk reduction (CVRR) [1][2] - Two significant lipid-lowering drugs are expected to report critical Phase III results in 2026, targeting PCSK9 and Lp(a) [1][2] - The development of cardiovascular and cardiac drugs is entering a harvest phase, with a focus on Phase III progress [1] Group 1: Key Developments in Lipid-Lowering Drugs - Novartis' PCSK9 small nucleic acid Leqvio and ASO drug Pelacarsen are under close observation for their Phase III trials, which could expand the market for lipid-lowering therapies [1][2] - Merck's MK-0616, the first oral cyclic peptide PCSK9 to enter Phase III, is expected to influence the long-term trajectory of the PCSK9 market [2] Group 2: Emerging Targets and Innovations - Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' Plozasiran (ARO-APOC3) is set for FDA approval for treating familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS), marking a significant advancement in the siRNA field [3] - Eli Lilly's Lp(a) small molecule inhibitor Muvalaplin has initiated Phase III trials, with plans to enroll 10,450 participants, expected to complete by 2031 [3] Group 3: Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Transformation - Major pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly, AbbVie, and Pfizer are launching online Direct-to-Consumer platforms, breaking traditional barriers in drug sales [4] - This shift aims to attract more self-paying users, particularly in the chronic disease sector, which is anticipated to capture the largest market share in the future [4]
招商证券国际:降血脂市场潜力巨大 PCSK9/Lp(a)心血管新药将迎来黄金时代
智通财经网· 2025-11-18 09:16
Core Insights - The lipid-lowering market is projected to reach $35 billion, with some drugs entering the long-term cardiovascular event risk reduction (CVRR) prevention field [1][2] - Two significant lipid-lowering drugs are expected to report critical Phase III results in 2026, targeting PCSK9 and Lp(a) [1][2] - The development of cardiovascular and cardiac drugs is entering a harvest phase, with a focus on Phase III progress [1] Group 1: Lipid-Lowering Drugs and Market Potential - Novartis' PCSK9 small nucleic acid Leqvio and ASO drug Pelacarsen are under close observation for their Phase III trials, which could expand the market for lipid-lowering treatments [1][2] - The potential success of Novartis' VICTORION trials could signify a shift of PCSK9 from merely lowering cholesterol to long-term cardiovascular protection, with expectations of exceeding $6 billion in future market potential [2] - Merck's MK-0616, the first oral cyclic peptide PCSK9 entering Phase III, is anticipated to influence the long-term trajectory of the PCSK9 market [2] Group 2: Breakthroughs in Other Lipid-Lowering Targets - Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' Plozasiran (ARO-APOC3) is set for FDA approval for treating familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS), marking a significant advancement in the siRNA field [3] - Eli Lilly's Lp(a) small molecule inhibitor Muvalaplin has initiated Phase III trials, aiming to enroll 10,450 participants, with completion expected by 2031 [3] - The Lp(a) field is becoming a competitive space with multiple large pharmaceutical companies advancing their candidates into Phase III trials, indicating a robust development landscape [3] Group 3: Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Transformation - Major pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly, AbbVie, and Pfizer are launching online Direct-to-Consumer platforms, signaling a shift in drug sales strategies [4] - This transformation aims to break traditional barriers between serious medical endpoints and consumer markets, potentially attracting more self-paying users [4] - The focus on chronic disease management is expected to yield significant market share in the future [4]
招商证券国际:重申阿里巴巴-W首选地位 评级“买入”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 07:24
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Alibaba's strong execution, business synergy, and comprehensive technology product system position it as a key beneficiary in the AI sector, reaffirming it as a preferred stock with a "buy" rating [1] - Alibaba has launched its flagship AI application "Qianwen APP," which serves as its official AI assistant, featuring dialogue Q&A, intelligent writing, and multi-modal camera functions, providing a competitive advantage over ChatGPT's third-party application integration [1] - According to Omdia, the AI cloud market in China reached 22.3 billion RMB in the first half of this year, with Alibaba holding a 35.8% market share, indicating that new consumer initiatives will drive long-term revenue growth [1] Group 2 - Alibaba is set to announce its Q2 2026 earnings on November 25, with expectations of a 3.6% year-on-year revenue growth, primarily driven by incremental contributions from instant retail [2] - Customer management revenue (CMR) is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year, remaining consistent with the previous quarter [2] - Instant retail revenue is expected to reach 26.9 billion RMB, reflecting an 83% year-on-year increase, while cloud and international e-commerce businesses are anticipated to grow by 26% and 19% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The adjusted EBITDA for the group is expected to decline by 61% year-on-year to 15.9 billion RMB, with non-GAAP net profit projected to decrease by 54% to 16.8 billion RMB [2]
招商证券国际:重申阿里巴巴-W(09988)首选地位 评级“买入”
智通财经网· 2025-11-18 07:23
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Alibaba's strong execution, business synergy, and comprehensive technology product system position it as a key beneficiary in the AI sector, reaffirming it as a preferred investment with a "buy" rating [1] - Alibaba has launched its flagship AI application, "Qianwen APP," which is described as the "most powerful official AI assistant" with features like conversational Q&A, intelligent writing, and a multi-modal camera [1] - The report highlights that Alibaba's self-built ecosystem and free strategy provide a competitive advantage over ChatGPT's third-party application integration, with a focus on monitoring daily active user (DAU) growth in the short term [1] Group 2 - Alibaba is expected to announce its Q2 2026 earnings on November 25, with projected revenue growth accelerating to 3.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by incremental contributions from instant retail [2] - Customer management revenue (CMR) is anticipated to grow by 10% year-on-year, remaining consistent with the previous quarter [2] - Instant retail revenue is expected to reach 26.9 billion RMB, reflecting an 83% year-on-year increase, while cloud and international e-commerce businesses are projected to grow by 26% and 19% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The adjusted EBITDA for the group is forecasted to decline by 61% year-on-year to 15.9 billion RMB, with non-GAAP net profit expected to decrease by 54% year-on-year to 16.8 billion RMB [2]
招商证券:需求触底改善 餐饮供应链行业重启成长价值
智通财经网· 2025-11-18 07:04
Core Viewpoint - The overall demand in the restaurant sector is weak but shows signs of recovery, with seasonal demand expected to improve and holiday performance being better than average [1] Industry Status - The restaurant sector is currently at a demand bottom, but there are indications of recovery, particularly during peak seasons and holidays, with leading chain restaurants gradually improving [1] - The chain restaurant penetration rate is a key growth driver for supply chain companies, increasing from 15% in 2020 to an expected 23% in 2024, and further to 25% in 2025, indicating structural opportunities in the sector [1] Company Changes - High industry activity has led to increased competition in the restaurant supply chain, with companies transitioning from supporters to drivers, enhancing R&D and innovation capabilities [2] - Companies are consolidating resources to strengthen their competitive position and are actively developing new channels to expand their market reach [2] - The capacity investments made by companies in the past are beginning to materialize, supporting long-term growth and enabling leading firms to continue scaling up [2] Valuation Analysis - The valuation of the seasoning and pre-processed food index has significantly declined from its peak, with current valuations at historical lows, placing the seasoning sector at a 14.9% valuation and pre-processed food at 18.6% [3] - Compared to other food and beverage segments, the current valuation of pre-processed foods is relatively low, suggesting potential for recovery as the industry rebounds [3] Investment Recommendations - The restaurant supply chain sector is gaining attention, with Q3 2025 performance generally exceeding expectations, and quality companies are expected to accelerate growth due to enhanced competitive advantages [4] - Current valuations are below the 20th percentile of the past decade, indicating potential for growth and valuation recovery as demand improves [4] - Recommended stocks include Hai Tian Wei Ye, Anqi Yeast, Anjing Food, China Resources Beer, Richen Co., Lihigh Food, Baoli Food, and Qianhe Flavor [4]
大行评级丨招商证券国际:重申阿里巴巴为首选标的 维持美股目标价204美元
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-18 05:32
阿里巴巴将于11月25日公布2026财年第二季度业绩,该行预计集团营收按年增长加速至3.6%,主要受 益于实时零售业务的增量贡献;客户管理收入(CMR)按年增长10%,与上季度相近;实时零售营收预计 达到269亿元,按年增长83%;云业务与国际电商业务预计保持强劲增长,分别按年增长26%、19%。 招商证券国际发表研报指,阿里巴巴正式推出旗舰级客户端AI应用千问APP,定位为阿里最强大模型官 方AI助手,具备对话问答、智能写作及多模态全能相机功能;相较于ChatGPT对接第三方应用的模式, 该行认为阿里自建的全生态产品体系及免费策略构成竞争优势,短期需关注日活跃用户数(DAU)增长。 基于阿里强大的执行力、业务协同性及全栈技术产品体系构成的AI核心受益地位,该行重申为首选标 的,评级"买入",维持美股目标价204美元,对应2027财年21倍市盈率。 ...