Group 1: Coal Price Trends - Coal prices have continued to rise, exceeding 830 CNY/ton, but a short-term peak may be reached [1] - The core reason for the recent coal price increase is a fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics since May [1] - The coal production for October was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but month-on-month stable [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has contracted significantly due to government intervention against "involution," with production from July to October showing a continuous decline [1] - The total electricity consumption in August and September increased by 4.6%, a significant recovery from the 2.5% growth in Q1, indicating strong demand [1] - Despite entering the typical demand off-season, demand has remained unexpectedly high, particularly in East China [1] Group 3: Market Insights - As of November 14, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 837 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.3% increase from the previous week [2] - The focus on domestic supply stability and reduced imports is expected to maintain a steady decline in total supply for the year [2] - The operating rate of major coking enterprises was reported at 79.18%, indicating a slight increase [2] Group 4: Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks in the coal sector, including China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [3] - Other recommended companies include Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jincheng Anthracite Mining [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the coal industry [1][13]. Core Viewpoints - The 2026 medium- and long-term coal supply contract plan aligns with expectations, with a slight relaxation in performance requirements. The plan continues the mechanism established in the 2022 contracts, which was a significant adjustment from the previous five-year mechanism [1][2]. - The pricing mechanism for coal contracts has been adjusted to include a monthly price adjustment mechanism for production area contracts, while the port benchmark price remains unchanged at 675 RMB/ton [3][10]. - The report suggests that with the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, the expected increase in domestic coal supply is limited, leading to a recovery in coal prices and improved performance in long-term contracts [3][6]. Summary by Sections Contract Signing Requirements - For power companies, the signing demand should not be less than 80% of the required amount, with 80% of these contracts under key regulatory oversight. For coal companies, the task volume should not be less than 75% of their own resource volume [2][10]. Pricing Mechanism - The production area contracts will now have a monthly price adjustment mechanism, with the benchmark price set based on the reasonable price range for coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The floating price will be determined by various indices [3][10]. Performance Supervision - The contract performance requirements have been relaxed, with monthly performance rates required to be no less than 80%, and quarterly and annual rates should generally not be less than 90%. There is an emphasis on increasing performance during peak seasons [3][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies with significant recovery potential, including Jin控煤业, 华阳股份, 山煤国际, 兖矿能源, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中国神华 [6].

Market Overview - The coal mining sector experienced a decline of 2.38% on November 18, with Zhengzhou Coal Power leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3939.81, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13080.49, down 0.92% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Zhengzhou Coal Power (600121) closed at 5.08, down 8.30% with a trading volume of 1.25 million shares and a transaction value of 645 million yuan [1] - Dayou Energy (600403) closed at 10.26, down 7.98% with a trading volume of 2.00 million shares and a transaction value of 2.22 billion yuan [1] - Liaoning Energy (600758) closed at 4.28, down 5.93% with a trading volume of 537,200 shares and a transaction value of 233 million yuan [1] - Other notable declines include Lu'an Environmental Energy (669109) down 5.60%, and Electric Power Investment Energy (002128) down 5.51% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The coal mining sector saw a net outflow of 1.616 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.356 billion yuan [1] - The table of capital flow indicates that Electric Power Investment Energy (002128) had a net inflow of 27.82 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net outflow from retail investors [2] - Other companies like Huai Bei Mining (600985) and Gansu Energy Chemical (000552) also showed mixed capital flows, with varying degrees of net inflows and outflows from different investor types [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the decline in the stock price of Jinkong Coal Industry, which fell by 5.17% to 15.22 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 302 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.16%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 25.474 billion CNY [1] - Jinkong Coal Industry, established on July 25, 2001, and listed on June 23, 2006, is primarily engaged in coal mining, washing, processing, and sales, with coal accounting for 94.00% of its main business revenue [1] - The company also generates revenue from coal by-products (3.26%), transportation services (1.63%), and other sources (1.11%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Guolian Fund has one fund heavily invested in Jinkong Coal Industry, specifically Guolian Coal A (168204), which reduced its holdings by 82,100 shares in the third quarter, now holding 1.1511 million shares, representing 3.82% of the fund's net value [2] - The estimated floating loss for Guolian Coal A today is approximately 955,400 CNY [2] - Guolian Coal A was established on January 1, 2021, with a current scale of 291 million CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 10.19% and a one-year return of 7.6% [2] Group 3 - The fund managers of Guolian Coal A are Chen Xinyu and Du Chao, with Chen having a tenure of 6 years and 112 days, managing assets totaling 1.211 billion CNY, and achieving a best return of 68.84% during his tenure [3] - Du Chao has a tenure of 2 years and 31 days, managing assets of 1.967 billion CNY, with a best return of 55.81% during his management period [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the decline in the stock price of Jinko Coal Industry, which fell by 5.17% to 15.22 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 302 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.16%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 25.474 billion CNY [1] - Jinko Coal Industry, officially known as Shanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd., was established on July 25, 2001, and listed on June 23, 2006. The company is primarily engaged in coal mining, washing, processing, and sales, with coal accounting for 94.00% of its main business revenue [1] - The revenue composition of Jinko Coal Industry includes 94.00% from coal, 3.26% from coal by-products, 1.63% from transportation services, and 1.11% from other sources [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under Bosera Fund has a significant position in Jinko Coal Industry. Bosera Xintai Mixed A (004175) held 46,100 shares in the second quarter, representing 1.31% of the fund's net value, making it the largest holding [2] - The estimated floating loss for Bosera Xintai Mixed A (004175) today is approximately 38,300 CNY. The fund was established on December 29, 2016, with a latest scale of 3.2026 million CNY [2] - Year-to-date, Bosera Xintai Mixed A (004175) has reported a loss of 0.35%, ranking 8105 out of 8193 in its category, while its one-year return is 3.27%, ranking 7699 out of 7977. Since its inception, the fund has achieved a return of 100.61% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting a "Buy" rating for specific stocks based on their performance relative to the market [3][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand, particularly in the context of winter heating needs [3][4]. - It emphasizes the impact of environmental regulations and safety inspections on coal production, which are likely to tighten supply further [3][7]. - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities, including Jin控煤业, 华阳股份, and 山煤国际, based on their price elasticity and valuation [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses the initiation of the third round of central ecological environment protection inspections, which will affect major coal-producing regions and companies [7]. - It mentions the State Energy Administration's guidance on integrating coal with renewable energy, focusing on low-carbon transitions and new energy developments in mining areas [7]. 2. Price Trends of Coal - The report notes fluctuations in domestic coal prices, with specific increases in certain regions, such as a rise of 10 CNY/ton in Dazhou and Ordos [8]. - The overall coal price index in the Bohai Rim region has increased by 4 CNY/ton, indicating a general upward trend in coal prices [8]. 3. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have risen by 1.19% to 64.39 USD/barrel, which may influence coal prices due to the relationship between oil and coal markets [14]. 4. Port Inventory Trends - The report indicates an increase in coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports, with a total of 24.3 million tons, reflecting a 2.56% rise week-on-week [18]. 5. Domestic and International Freight Rates - Domestic coastal shipping rates have increased slightly, with an average of 51.52 CNY/ton, while international shipping rates from Australia to China have also seen a rise [23]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings projections [28].

Investment Strategy Overview - The report highlights the resurgence of resource nationalism driven by de-globalization, emphasizing coal's strategic importance for national energy security. Major coal-producing countries like Indonesia, Mongolia, and the USA are tightening control over coal resources, integrating them into national strategies to bolster energy independence and support domestic industrial and power needs [3][4][5]. Supply Side Analysis - The coal industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, with safety and environmental regulations leading to a more rational supply order. The release of production capacity is expected to be steady but cautious, promoting high-quality development in the coal sector [3][4]. - Domestic supply costs are rising, and coal imports are tightening marginally due to increased scrutiny and regulations [4][32]. Demand Side Analysis - The report anticipates a stable and slight increase in overall coal demand, driven by the rigid growth in electricity consumption and the irreplaceable role of coal in peak regulation and energy security. The expected price range for thermal coal in 2026 is projected to be between 750-800 RMB per ton [3][4][29]. - The resilience of coal power generation is highlighted, particularly in the context of fluctuating renewable energy output, indicating that coal will continue to play a crucial role in the energy mix [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in stable, high-dividend companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy. It also suggests paying attention to companies with price elasticity like Jinkong Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Tebian Electric Apparatus, and Shanxi Coal International [3][4]. - Growth-oriented companies in coal-electricity joint ventures, such as Xinji Energy, are also recommended for consideration [3][4]. Regional Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline in 2025 due to new resource tax regulations, which will increase export costs and support domestic coal prices [11][12]. - Mongolia's coal production and sales are affected by ongoing political instability, impacting the stability of coal imports [17][18]. - The USA is implementing favorable policies to revitalize its coal industry, including reducing royalty rates and increasing federal land available for coal exploration [21][22]. Future Capacity and Production Trends - Future coal production capacity is expected to be limited, with only about 67 million tons of new capacity projected over the next three years. The focus is shifting towards regions like Xinjiang, which has significant coal reserves and favorable mining conditions [61][67]. - The report notes that the overall coal production in China is unlikely to see significant growth in 2026 due to ongoing safety inspections and regulatory measures [51][53].

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is expected to stabilize and rebound in prices due to the "check overproduction" policy, benefiting thermal coal companies through improved long-term contract performance and coal-electricity integration, while coking coal companies face pressure due to lagging contract pricing [1][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the coal sector saw a positive revenue growth, with thermal coal companies experiencing a better net profit growth compared to coking coal companies [1]. - The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 621 CNY/ton on June 30, 2025, to 699 CNY/ton on September 30, 2025, marking a cumulative increase of 12.6% in Q3 [1]. - The overall performance of the coal industry is expected to continue improving due to increased heating demand and tight supply-side policies in Q4 [1][6]. Group 2: Production and Sales - The "check overproduction" policy in Q3 2025 led to stable production among leading thermal coal companies, while coking coal production saw a noticeable decline [2]. - Most listed coal companies did not significantly reduce their output in Q3, with some midstream companies experiencing high sales growth and accelerated inventory reduction due to improved supply-demand dynamics [2]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - In Q3 2025, the self-produced coal prices decreased year-on-year by 10% to 20%, while the sales prices of coal companies showed narrow fluctuations or slight increases, with most increases being less than 10% [3]. - The lag in price transmission from market coal prices to listed companies' sales prices is attributed to long-term contract pricing mechanisms and order delivery cycles [3]. Group 4: Cost Management - In H1 2025, coal companies shifted their strategies from volume-based to cost control, which became crucial in facing low coal prices and high inventory levels [4]. - Leading thermal coal companies maintained cost control in Q3 2025, achieving a decrease in unit costs, while some coking coal companies experienced an increase in unit sales costs, negatively impacting their performance [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The combination of stable production, rising prices, and cost reductions for thermal coal companies is expected to lead to improved profitability, while coking coal companies may see significant price rebounds in Q4 as long-term contracts adjust to higher market prices [5]. - The coal market is currently in a phase of tightening supply and increasing demand, with winter coal prices expected to remain strong due to seasonal heating needs and ongoing supply-side policies [7]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively monitoring robust thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as well as high-elasticity coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining, Jincheng Anthracite Mining, and Shanxi Coal International [8].

Core Viewpoint - Jin Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuations in stock performance, with a year-to-date increase of 25.51% but a recent decline in the last five trading days by 2.11% [1][2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Jin Energy reported a revenue of 9.325 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.277 billion yuan, down 40.65% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 6.083 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.640 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [2] Stock Market Activity - As of November 17, the stock price of Jin Energy was 16.21 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 27.131 billion yuan [1] - The stock has seen a trading volume of 135 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.50% on the same day [1] - The net inflow of main funds was 1.1095 million yuan, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1] Shareholder Structure - As of October 20, the number of shareholders increased to 58,000, with an average of 28,856 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 4.40% [2] - The second-largest circulating shareholder is the Guotai CSI Coal ETF, holding 33.2232 million shares, an increase of 2.024 million shares from the previous period [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong, with the northern port coal price reaching 834 RMB/ton, an increase of 17 RMB/ton week-on-week, as the industry anticipates an increase in daily consumption during the winter peak season [4][14][71] - The supply-demand balance in the coal market remains favorable, with stable production and a slight increase in port inventories, while non-electric demand from sectors like metallurgy and chemicals continues to support coal consumption [5][14][71] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with strong cash flows and high dividend yields, amidst market volatility and external economic pressures [7][73] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The northern port thermal coal price increased to 834 RMB/ton, with production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region stable at 89.79% [14][21] - Daily consumption at coastal and inland power plants showed a week-on-week change of -8.0 and +12.3 thousand tons, respectively, indicating a recovery phase [14][24] - The report notes a decrease in coal imports due to rising prices and lower acceptance from downstream users, while supply constraints from Indonesia and Russia are expected to limit import availability [14][71] 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal production capacity utilization increased by 0.37 percentage points to 84.2%, driven by recovery in some mines in Shanxi [5][72] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu port rose to 1,366 trucks, indicating stable supply [5][72] - The report anticipates that despite short-term market sentiment fluctuations, coking coal prices will remain stable due to low production and inventory levels [6][72] 3. Coke - The supply-demand balance for coke remains stable, with some steel mills accepting a price increase of 50-55 RMB/ton, effective from November 15 [6][51] - The report indicates that independent coking plants have seen a decrease in production rates, while iron output has increased, supporting demand for coke [6][58] 4. Investment Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on robust coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which exhibit strong fundamentals and growth potential [7][9][73] - It suggests that investors should consider the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in light of ongoing market dynamics and regulatory changes [7][73]