Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that domestic coal prices have shifted from an upward trend to a rational decline since November, with future price stability dependent on winter demand, particularly if temperatures drop unexpectedly in December and January, potentially increasing residential electricity demand and coal consumption by power plants [1] - The report suggests that the global energy landscape indicates that coal's role as a stabilizing force is unlikely to change in the short term, recommending a focus on long-term opportunities in the power sector [1] - The challenges facing the U.S. electricity system include high demand driven by AI and extreme weather, which complicates the goals of decarbonization, reliability, and cost efficiency, creating a "trilemma" that may require a shift away from decarbonization to meet reliability and cost demands [1] Group 2 - As of December 12, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 763 RMB/ton, down 38 RMB/ton (-4.7%) from the previous week, with domestic supply stable and imports continuing to decline [2] - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1650 RMB/ton, with expectations for improved demand despite the seasonal downturn [3] - The total inventory of coking coal across three ports is 3.01 million tons, with a utilization rate of 73.16% for coking enterprises with inventories over 200,000 tons [4] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on key companies in the sector, including China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH, 01088), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH, 01898), while also keeping an eye on Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH, 01171) and Jinneng Holding [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook on the coal sector, recommending a focus on key players such as China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, while also keeping an eye on Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding [3][4]. Core Insights - The coal sector has reached a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downward risks [1]. - Coal prices have recently entered a rational decline after a period of increase, with future price stability dependent on winter demand [3][4]. - The report highlights the ongoing global energy challenges, particularly in the U.S., where electricity supply issues are exacerbated by rising demand driven by AI and extreme weather [3][4]. Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of December 12, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 763 RMB/ton, down 38 RMB/ton (-4.7%) from the previous week [5][6]. - The price of Q5000 coal at Huanghua Port is 662 RMB/ton, down 39 RMB/ton (-5.6%) [5][6]. - Inventory levels have increased across major ports, with Qinhuangdao's inventory rising to 7.3 million tons, up 480,000 tons (7.0%) [19][20]. Coking Coal Data Tracking - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1650 RMB/ton, while other grades have seen slight declines [36]. - The average price of primary metallurgical coke at major domestic ports is 1686 RMB/ton, down 55 RMB/ton (-3.2%) [61]. Global Coal Market Dynamics - The offshore price of Newcastle Q5500 coal has decreased by 8 USD/ton (-8.8%), making domestic coal more cost-effective compared to imports [15][22]. - The report notes that Australian coking coal prices have increased by 3 USD/ton (1.4%), while costs for domestic coking coal remain lower than imported options [47]. Long-term Contracts and Pricing Trends - The annual long-term contract price for Q5500 coal at Northern Ports has increased to 694 RMB/ton, up 10 RMB/ton (1.5%) from the previous month [26]. - The comprehensive trading price for Q5500 coal in Qinhuangdao is 709 RMB/ton, down 6 RMB/ton (-0.8%) from the previous week [38].

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" [4]. Core Insights - The coal sector has confirmed a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with supply-demand dynamics showing a reversal point and downward risks fully released [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of winter demand in determining future coal prices, especially if temperatures drop unexpectedly in December and January, potentially increasing residential electricity demand and coal consumption by power plants [4]. - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the U.S. power system, particularly the "impossible trinity" of decarbonization goals, grid reliability, and the cost-speed requirements of AI data centers, suggesting that the U.S. may need to abandon its decarbonization targets to meet these demands [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend core dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, along with Yanzhou Coal and Jinneng Holding [4]. Coal Price Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 763 RMB/ton, down 38 RMB/ton (-4.7%) from the previous week [7]. - Domestic coal prices have entered a rational decline phase since November, with a focus on whether winter demand can exceed expectations [4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic supply remains stable, with imports continuing to decrease; total supply is expected to maintain a stable decline throughout the year [4]. - The report notes that the average price of metallurgical coke at major domestic ports has decreased, with the price of primary metallurgical coke at 1686 RMB/ton, down 55 RMB/ton (-3.2%) [58]. Inventory Levels - As of December 12, 2025, Qinhuangdao's coal inventory has increased by 48,000 tons (7.0%), with total inventory at major northern ports rising by 201,200 tons (5.8%) [22]. - The report indicates that the total inventory of coking coal at three major ports is 3.01 million tons, up 11,000 tons (3.8%) from the previous week [57]. Market Tracking - The report tracks coal price declines across various ports, with significant drops noted at Huanghua, Jiangsu, and Ningbo ports [7][9]. - The report also highlights that the average price of Australian coking coal has increased by 3 USD/ton (1.4%), while domestic coking coal remains cheaper than imported options [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "stronger than the market" for the coal industry, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the benchmark index [2][13]. Core Insights - The central economic work emphasizes "anti-involution," with limited month-on-month growth in coal imports in November. The Xinjiang railway has seen coal transportation exceed 90 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [1]. - November coal imports reached 44.05 million tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 5.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.9%. Cumulative imports from January to November totaled 432 million tons, down 12% year-on-year [1]. - The report anticipates that supply-side growth will remain limited, while demand is expected to be relatively stable, potentially shifting from a loose supply-demand situation to a balanced or slightly tight one [1]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that coal prices have accelerated their decline due to weak demand, with Qinhuangdao coal prices at 753 RMB/ton, down 4.8% month-on-month and 5.2% year-on-year [1]. - Average daily coal consumption in power plants across 25 provinces was 5.81 million tons, down 6.8% year-on-year, while average inventory stood at 135.46 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year [1]. - The report suggests that while coal prices are expected to continue declining, the extent of the decline will be limited due to seasonal demand recovery and ongoing supply-side optimization [1]. Price Trends and Market Outlook - The report indicates that the coal price is likely to experience limited declines in the short term, with a focus on economic recovery and macro policies influencing actual demand release [1]. - The report highlights that the second round of price reductions for coke has been implemented, with a decrease of 50-55 RMB/ton, while the main coking coal prices remain stable [7]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the production and profitability of steel mills, as well as the overall demand for coking coal, which may influence future price movements [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are expected to benefit from stable dividends, such as China Coal Energy, China Shenhua, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [8]. - It also suggests monitoring companies that may benefit from coal capacity reserve policies and intelligent safety upgrades in coal mines, as well as those involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Viewpoints - Since late November, thermal coal prices have significantly declined due to abnormal weather, accelerated production resumption, and concerns over potential electricity price reductions in 2026. Despite the recent rapid price drop, the report anticipates an improvement in coal demand in 2026, with limited supply capacity utilization, suggesting a potential increase in the price baseline [2][7]. - The report emphasizes that while coal prices are currently under pressure due to weak demand, factors such as cold weather and snowfall could stabilize and potentially increase prices in the future [6][31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 3.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.63 percentage points, ranking last among all industries [30]. - As of December 12, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 745 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][58]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The report outlines that the recent decline in coal prices is attributed to several factors: warmer weather leading to lower electricity consumption, increased coal supply from resumed production, and concerns regarding electricity price negotiations for 2026 [7]. - The demand outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of stable or slightly positive growth in thermal power generation, despite potential long-term impacts from energy storage technologies [7][8]. - On the supply side, the report notes that while there may be new production capacity in 2026, overall supply growth is expected to remain limited due to ongoing regulatory controls on excessive production [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with a balanced risk-reward profile, recommending stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy for their strong fundamentals and dividend potential [7][8]. - It also highlights the potential for higher returns from currently undervalued stocks if demand improves and coal prices rise unexpectedly, suggesting companies like Huayang Co. and Jinkong Coal Industry as potential targets [7][8].

据天眼查APP显示，晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司成立于2001年07月25日，注册资本167370万人民 币。（数据宝） （原标题：晋控煤业12月12日大宗交易成交801.09万元） 晋控煤业12月12日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量56.02万股，成交金额801.09万元，大宗交易成交 价为14.30元。该笔交易的买方营业部为机构专用，卖方营业部为瑞银证券有限责任公司上海花园石桥 路证券营业部。 证券时报•数据宝统计显示，晋控煤业今日收盘价为14.30元，下跌1.38%，日换手率为1.54%，成交额为 3.71亿元，全天主力资金净流入1427.79万元，近5日该股累计下跌0.56%，近5日资金合计净流出7828.93 万元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为2.32亿元，近5日减少1336.51万元，降幅为5.44%。 12月12日晋控煤业大宗交易一览 | 成交量 （万 | 成交金 额 | 成交价 格 | 相对当日 收盘折溢 | 买方营业 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股） | （万 | （元） | 价 | 部 | | | | 元） | ...

| 交易日期 | 证券商标 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量(*) 买入营业部 | | | 卖出营业部 | 是否为专场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-12 | 雷控煤业 | 601001 | 14.3 801.09 | 56.02 | 机构专用 | 發開更落电腦器系 | Ka | 12月12日，晋控煤业大宗交易成交56.02万股，成交额801.09万元，占当日总成交额的2.12%，成交价 14.3元，较市场收盘价14.3元持平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is expected to stabilize and recover in price due to seasonal demand increases and supply constraints as the year-end safety inspections become stricter [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - In October, electricity consumption exceeded expectations with a growth of 10.4%, while non-electric demand remained weak, leading to a 9.7% year-on-year decline in coal imports [1]. - Domestic coal prices saw fluctuations in November, with a rise followed by a decline, while long-term contract prices were adjusted upwards [1]. - International coal prices, particularly for Australian thermal and coking coal, continued to rise in November [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic coal production decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in October, and coal imports fell by 12.0% in November [1]. - The global seaborne coal loading volume dropped by 3.6% year-on-year in the first ten months, but demand from emerging markets remained strong [1]. - Seasonal demand is expected to increase from December to January, supporting coal prices as supply remains relatively low due to stricter safety regulations [2]. Group 3: Key Companies - Companies with stable earnings and dividends include China Shenhua (601008.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH) [3]. - Companies likely to benefit from improved demand expectations and supply reductions include Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) and Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) [3]. - Companies with notable long-term growth potential include Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) and China Qinfa (00866) [3].

12月9日，晋控煤业发布公告称，公司控股子公司内蒙古同煤鄂尔多斯矿业投资有限公司（色连煤矿） 拟继续将色连一号矿井委托汇永控股集团有限公司运营，并续签相关合同，托管期限初步定为三年。 事实上，自2023年起，晋控煤业控股子公司色连煤矿将"色连一号矿井"的生产、技术与安全管理整体委 托予汇永控股集团运营管理。双方签订的矿井整体安全生产委托管理合同即将到期。 在委托运营期间，色连煤矿与汇永集团合作顺畅，不仅提升了矿井安全生产管理水平，也有效控制了生 产运营成本，保障了矿井平稳运行。基于此，色连煤矿计划与汇永集团续签合同，继续委托其运营色连 一号矿井。 色连一号矿井由内蒙古同煤鄂尔多斯矿业投资有限公司负责开发运营，矿井于2009年10月正式开工建 设，2014年7月进入联合试运转阶段，并于2019年9月取得竣工验收批复，次年3月完成生产要素公告， 进入正式生产阶段。 产能方面，该矿井经历了一次显著提升。根据内蒙古自治区能源局于2022年9月下发的批复文件，色连 一号煤矿的生产能力已获准从原来的每年500万吨核增至每年800万吨。 本次续约交易的委托方为内蒙古同煤鄂尔多斯矿业投资有限公司。该公司位于内蒙古自治区鄂尔多 ...

证券代码：601001 证券简称：晋控煤业 公告编号：2025－027 晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司 关于控股子公司色连煤矿拟继续将矿井 委托运营的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告不存在虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责 任。 重要内容提示： 一、 交易概述 （一）交易内容 2023 年公司控股子公司色连煤矿将"色连一号矿井"的生产、技 术、安全生产管理整体委托给汇永控股集团有限公司（以下简称"汇 永集团"）运营管理。色连煤矿与汇永集团签署矿井整体安全生产委托 管理合同。协议即将到期。 色连矿井采用委托运营模式期间，色连煤矿与汇永集团保持了良 好的合作关系，提高了矿井及安全生产管理水平，有效降低了生产运 晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）控股子 公司内蒙古同煤鄂尔多斯矿业投资有限公司（以下简称"矿业 公司"或"色连煤矿"）拟继续将"色连一号矿井"委托运营。 本次交易不构成关联交易，不构成重大资产重组。 如遇国家政策发生变化、不可抗力等原因，将对委托运营产生 实质性影响，提醒广大投资者注意风险。 营成本，保证了矿井正常运营。现色连煤矿拟继续将色连 ...