丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨隆基绿能（601012.SH） [Table_Title] BC 销售占比持续提升，产业生态进一步完善 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 隆基绿能发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年公司实现收入 825.82 亿元，同比下降 36%；归母净利-86.18 亿元，同比下降 180%，符合业绩预告区间；其中，2024Q4 实现收入 239.9 亿元，同比下降 32%；归母净利-21.13 亿元。2025Q1 实现收入 136.52 亿元，同比下降 23%；归母净利-14.36 亿元。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 1 隆基绿能（601012.SH） cjzqdt11111 邬博华 曹海花 王耀 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490524120006 SFC：BQK482 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Title2] BC 销售占比持续提升，产业生态进一步完善 [Table_Summary2] 事件描 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industry is facing a significant mismatch in supply and demand, leading to a sharp decline in prices across the supply chain, which will pressure the company's profitability in 2024 and Q1 2025. However, the company's HPBC 2.0 product saw a notable increase in shipments in Q1, with 4.32 GW shipped, accounting for 25% of total shipments. The company plans to reach a production capacity of 50 GW for HPBC 2.0 by the end of the year, with expectations for further shipment growth in 2026. [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 82.582 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -8.618 billion yuan, down 180.15% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was -8.747 billion yuan, also down 180.74% year-on-year. In Q4, the single-quarter revenue was 23.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.23% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.57%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.113 billion yuan. [2] Industry Challenges - The price decline in the supply chain has significantly pressured the company's gross margin in 2024. The solar industry is affected by supply-demand imbalances, leading to substantial price drops in components and silicon wafers. The company's revenue from components and battery business was 66.334 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.13%, with a gross margin of 6.27%, down 12.11 percentage points. The silicon wafer and rod business generated revenue of 8.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.53%, with a gross margin of -14.31%, down 30.19 percentage points. [3] Asset Impairment - The company recorded an asset impairment loss of 8.7 billion yuan in 2024, with 2.143 billion yuan in Q4 primarily related to fixed assets. The total impairment included 6.128 billion yuan for inventory write-downs and contract performance cost impairments due to price declines in the supply chain. In Q1 2025, the company's losses narrowed quarter-on-quarter due to reduced asset impairments and cost control, but the gross margin further declined to -4.18% due to rising upstream silicon prices and falling component prices. [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating its transition to BC technology, with Q1 battery component shipments reaching 16.93 GW, including 4.32 GW of BC components, accounting for 25.5% of total shipments. The production efficiency of HPBC 2.0 reached 24.8%, with a target for BC component shipments to exceed 25% for the year. The company has established a 5 GW joint venture factory in the U.S. to mitigate risks associated with market barriers, aiming for strong profitability in the high-price U.S. market. [5] Financial Stability - The company maintains a strong cash position and a low debt-to-asset ratio, indicating resilience during the industry's downturn. As of the end of Q1, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 51.483 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 59.8%, significantly lower than other leading companies. The inventory turnover days decreased by 12 days year-on-year to 98 days, indicating initial success in inventory reduction. [5] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 80.832 billion yuan, 93.449 billion yuan, and 105.551 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of -2.768 billion yuan, 1.075 billion yuan, and 3.834 billion yuan. [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant growth and performance of the New Energy ETF, which has shown a notable increase in trading volume and scale, ranking among the top two comparable funds [3] - The New Energy ETF has a recent average daily trading volume of 36.32 million yuan over the past year, indicating strong liquidity [3] - The fund's scale has increased by 3.44 million yuan in the past week, and its share count has grown by 36 million shares in the last six months, both ranking in the top two among comparable funds [3] - The valuation of the index tracked by the New Energy ETF is at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 2.08, which is lower than 85.94% of the time over the past five years, suggesting a favorable valuation [3] - The index includes companies involved in renewable energy production, application, storage, and related equipment, reflecting the overall performance of the new energy sector [3] Group 2 - The Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission has issued a draft implementation plan for the market-oriented reform of new energy grid connection prices, which is the first provincial-level guideline following the national notice aimed at promoting high-quality development in the new energy sector [4] - The guidelines are expected to serve as a reference for other regions in formulating their own plans in response to the national directive [4] - According to Guojin Securities, the core driving force for the photovoltaic industry is shifting from policy intervention to self-driven industry dynamics, indicating a potential recovery for the sector [4] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI New Energy Index include major companies such as CATL, LONGi Green Energy, and others, collectively accounting for 44.26% of the index [4]

Core Insights - The BIPV (Building Integrated Photovoltaics) industry has gained significant attention from the Chinese government since 2021, with various policies aimed at promoting its development as part of the country's carbon neutrality goals [1][8][20] - The market for BIPV is expected to grow rapidly, with projected new installations of approximately 11,140 MW in 2024 and a cumulative capacity of around 28,129 MW [1][18] - BIPV is recognized as an effective means to develop green buildings and reduce energy consumption in the construction sector [1][18] Industry Overview - BIPV technology integrates solar photovoltaic components into buildings, allowing them to generate electricity for their own use [4] - The BIPV market is categorized into applications such as photovoltaic roofs and walls, with materials classified into crystalline and thin-film types [4] Industry Development History - The BIPV industry has evolved over nearly 30 years, with the first projects in China initiated in 2004 [5] Policy Support - The Chinese government has implemented multiple policies to support the BIPV industry, including the "14th Five-Year Plan for Energy Conservation and Green Building Development" [8][9] - Recent policies aim to enhance the integration of renewable energy in various sectors, including construction [8][9] Industry Chain - The BIPV industry chain consists of upstream component manufacturers, midstream system integrators, and downstream application scenarios [11][13] - Key players in the midstream include companies like Jianghe Group and Sentech, which provide integrated BIPV solutions [11][20] Market Potential - The market for BIPV roofs was valued at approximately 91.73 billion yuan in 2022, expected to reach 366.77 billion yuan by 2027 [15] - The BIPV curtain wall market was valued at around 6.57 billion yuan in 2022, projected to grow to 45.73 billion yuan by 2027 [15] Key Companies - Major companies in the BIPV sector include Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and Jianghe Group, which are involved in both manufacturing and system integration [20][21] Future Trends - The BIPV industry is expected to benefit from continued policy support and technological advancements, leading to lower costs and increased market adoption [26][27] - Innovative business models, such as energy management contracts and rooftop leasing, are anticipated to enhance project economics and accelerate market penetration [28]

Group 1 - The core theme of the news revolves around the rising interest and investment in low-carbon economy initiatives, highlighted by the performance of the China Securities Low-Carbon Economy Theme Index and related ETFs [1][2][3] - The China Securities Low-Carbon Economy Theme Index (000977) saw a strong increase of 1.21%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Guoxuan High-Tech (up 9.99%) and Ningde Times (up 4.41%) [1] - The Carbon Neutrality ETF (159885) has experienced a 1.39% increase, marking its third consecutive rise, indicating growing investor confidence in carbon neutrality initiatives [2] Group 2 - The 2025 (Third Cross-Strait Carbon Neutrality Conference) held in Fuzhou focused on sustainable development opportunities and cooperation between the two sides, with over 200 experts and industry leaders participating [2] - The conference resulted in the "Cross-Strait Enterprises Carbon Neutral Green Action Fuzhou Initiative," urging enterprises to commit to green practices and contribute to global climate governance [2] - A report from Dongwu Securities emphasized the importance of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality by 2030, with a focus on establishing zero-carbon parks and factories, and expanding the national carbon trading market [2][3] Group 3 - CITIC Securities highlighted that achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 is crucial for China to integrate into the new global industrial chain and build a community with a shared future [3] - Non-fossil energy is expected to be the main driver of energy growth, with policies focusing on energy consumption control, carbon trading, and green finance [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Low-Carbon Economy Theme Index account for 62.79% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment in key sectors such as clean energy and storage [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Views - The electric power equipment and new energy industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with a potential industry turnaround as capacity is gradually cleared [1][2] - In 2024, the industry's total revenue decreased by 3.69% year-on-year to CNY 49,934.98 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 44.66% to CNY 2,086.33 billion [2][3] - The average gross margin for the industry in 2024 was 18.88%, down 2.29 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 5.04%, down 3.46 percentage points [4][5] Summary by Sections 2024 Industry Performance - The electric power equipment and new energy industry experienced a revenue decline of 3.69% in 2024, with total revenue at CNY 49,934.98 billion and net profit down 44.66% to CNY 2,086.33 billion [2][3] - The new energy vehicle sector achieved revenue of CNY 20,445.81 billion, a slight increase of 0.85%, but net profit decreased by 19.39% to CNY 1,096.23 billion [3][6] - The renewable energy generation sector saw revenue drop by 8.97% to CNY 25,195.68 billion, with net profit down 69.69% to CNY 631.44 billion [3][6] - The electric power equipment sector reported a revenue increase of 10.20% to CNY 4,293.50 billion, with net profit rising by 9.80% to CNY 358.66 billion [3][6] 2025 Q1 Industry Performance - In Q1 2025, the industry achieved revenue of CNY 11,025.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.16%, and net profit of CNY 679.87 billion, up 12.25% [5][7] - The new energy vehicle sector's revenue grew by 19.46% to CNY 4,775.68 billion, with net profit increasing by 75.48% to CNY 332.27 billion [5][7] - The renewable energy generation sector's revenue decreased by 5.65% to CNY 5,335.37 billion, with net profit down 23.46% to CNY 266.15 billion [5][7] - The electric power equipment sector reported revenue of CNY 914.21 billion, a 9.98% increase, and net profit of CNY 81.45 billion, up 18.77% [5][7] Investment Recommendations - For the new energy vehicle sector, the report suggests prioritizing investments in the battery cell segment and midstream material sectors with strong integration [33] - In the photovoltaic sector, it recommends focusing on high-performance auxiliary materials and integrated component segments, as well as new technology such as HJT battery equipment [34] - For wind energy, it advises investing in tower foundations and submarine cable segments with significant growth potential [34] - In the hydrogen energy sector, it highlights the importance of companies with cost and technology advantages in electrolyzer production and hydrogen infrastructure [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Longi Green Energy, with a target price of 18.01 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a phase of performance pressure, but the BC technology is expected to see significant growth in production [2][8]. - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 82.58 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 36.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -8.62 billion CNY, marking a shift from profit to loss [4][8]. - The company is transitioning its production lines to the HPBC 2.0 technology, which has achieved a battery yield of approximately 97% and a maximum production efficiency of 24.8% [8]. - The company aims to ship 80-90 GW of components in 2025, with BC products expected to account for over 25% of this total [8]. - The company has a solid position in the silicon wafer market, with a strategy focused on cost control and efficiency improvements [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 82,582 million CNY, with a gross margin of 7.44% and a net profit margin of -10.44% [4][8]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a gradual recovery, with net profits expected to be -2.27 billion CNY in 2025, 3.90 billion CNY in 2026, and 5.18 billion CNY in 2027 [4][8]. - The company's cash position is strong, with 51.48 billion CNY in cash as of the end of Q1 2025, providing a buffer for operations [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Longi Green Energy, with a target price of 18.01 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a phase of performance pressure, but the BC technology is expected to see significant growth in production [2][8]. - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 82.58 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 36.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -8.62 billion CNY, marking a shift from profit to loss [4][8]. - The company is transitioning its production lines to the HPBC 2.0 technology, which has achieved a battery yield of approximately 97% and a maximum production efficiency of 24.8% [8]. - The company aims to ship 80-90 GW of components in 2025, with BC products expected to account for over 25% of this total [8]. - The company has a solid position in the silicon wafer market, with a strategy focused on cost control and efficiency improvements [8]. - The report highlights that the company has made sufficient impairment provisions, with a total of 87 billion CNY in asset impairment recognized in 2024 [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 82.58 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 7.44% and a net margin of -10.44% [4][8]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a gradual recovery, with net profits projected at -2.27 billion CNY, 3.90 billion CNY, and 5.18 billion CNY respectively [8]. - The company's PE ratios are projected to be -51, 29, and 22 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the issuance of convertible bonds by LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd., which aims to raise a total of RMB 7 billion through the issuance of 70 million convertible bonds, each with a face value of RMB 100 [1][4][10] - The bonds were approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and began trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on February 17, 2022 [1][4] - The bonds have a maturity period of six years, with an annual interest rate that increases from 0.20% in the first year to 2.00% in the sixth year [1][4][10] Group 2 - In 2024, LONGi Green Energy reported a revenue of RMB 82.58 billion, a decrease of 36.23% compared to 2023, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 8.62 billion [11][12] - The company faced challenges such as declining prices and gross margins for its PERC and TOPCon products, leading to increased asset impairment provisions [11][12] - The company’s total assets decreased by 6.78% to RMB 152.84 billion by the end of 2024 [11][12] Group 3 - The funds raised from the convertible bonds are intended for various investment projects, including the construction of high-efficiency solar cell production facilities [9][12] - As of December 31, 2024, the company had utilized RMB 426.85 million of the raised funds, with a portion allocated to projects that have been adjusted or delayed due to market conditions [12][13] - The company plans to adjust the timeline for certain projects, such as the Wuhu Phase II project, to June 2026 due to industry cyclicality and supply-demand mismatches [12][13]

股票代码：601012 债券代码：113053 股票简称：隆基绿能 债券简称：隆 22 转债 隆基绿能科技股份有限公司 公开发行可转换公司债券 受托管理事务报告 （2024 年度） 债券受托管理人 （深圳市罗湖区红岭中路 1012 号国信证券大厦 16-26 层） 二〇二五年五月 1 重要声明 本报告依据《可转换公司债券管理办法》（以下简称"《管理办法》"）、《隆基 绿能科技股份有限公司（发行人）与国信证券股份有限公司（受托管理人）签订 的隆基绿能科技股份有限公司 2021 年度公开发行可转换公司债券之受托管理协 议》（以下简称"《受托管理协议》"）、《隆基绿能科技股份有限公司公开发行可转 换公司债券募集说明书》（以下简称"《募集说明书》"）、《隆基绿能科技股份有限 公司 2024 年年度报告》等相关公开信息披露文件、第三方中介机构出具的专业 意见等，由债券受托管理人国信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"国信证券"）编 制。国信证券对本报告中所包含的从上述文件中引述内容和信息未进行独立验证， 也不就该等引述内容和信息的真实性、准确性和完整性做出任何保证或承担任何 责任。 本报告不构成对投资者进行或不进行某项行为的推 ...