Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the aviation and logistics sectors, including China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and SF Express [2]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from multiple catalysts, including the recovery of passenger demand and improved ticket pricing due to high load factors and regulatory support [4][6]. - The logistics and express delivery industry is experiencing a divergence in growth rates, with a focus on improving operational quality through policies aimed at reducing "involution" and the adoption of automation technologies [6][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation Sector - The report highlights the positive impact of the national strategy to expand domestic demand, which is expected to drive up airline stock prices. For instance, companies like China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines saw stock increases of 12.48% and 13.60%, respectively [4]. - Key metrics for airlines from December 15 to December 19 include average daily flights and aircraft utilization rates, with notable year-on-year increases in flight numbers for several airlines [4]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the aviation sector, driven by a combination of recovering demand, regulatory support for pricing, and a gradual recovery in aircraft utilization rates [6]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is witnessing a mixed trend in volume and pricing, with November data showing a year-on-year increase in delivery volumes for some companies while others face declines [6]. - The report notes that the integration of Danbird Logistics into Shentong Express is expected to enhance scale and operational efficiency [6]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to improve profitability across the express delivery industry, with a focus on enhancing service quality and pricing strategies [6][7]. Infrastructure - The report suggests that the infrastructure sector, particularly highways, remains stable with consistent cash dividends and ongoing expansion projects [6]. - Data from December 8 to December 14 indicates a slight decline in freight traffic on highways and railways, but overall port throughput showed a year-on-year increase [6]. Shipping and Trade - The shipping sector is experiencing fluctuations in freight rates, with oil shipping showing strength while dry bulk rates are declining. The report suggests that geopolitical factors may reshape global shipping dynamics [7]. - The report recommends monitoring companies in the shipping sector for potential investment opportunities, particularly those positioned to benefit from seasonal demand increases [7].

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Spring Airlines, Wang Yu, highlighted that China's continuous expansion of its "visa-free circle" has injected new momentum into the aviation and tourism industries [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - Spring Airlines is seizing the opportunity presented by the expansion of visa-free destinations to accelerate the development of its route network targeting countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [1] - The company has already established multiple routes to visa-free destinations such as Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, forming a certain scale of network [1] - Spring Airlines plans to further enhance existing routes and actively explore markets in Central Asia [1] Group 2: Future Plans - Looking towards the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Spring Airlines aims to continue improving its international route layout [1] - The company plans to launch new routes from Shanghai to Mongolia and Laos by March 2026, facilitating personnel exchanges between China and foreign countries and supporting high-level opening-up [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the expansion of China's visa-free travel policy, which is providing new momentum for the aviation and tourism industries [2] - Spring Airlines is seizing the opportunity presented by the expanded visa-free destinations to accelerate the development of its route network targeting countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [2] - The company has already established multiple routes to visa-free destinations such as Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, and plans to further enhance and expand its existing routes [2] Group 2 - Spring Airlines aims to improve its international route layout during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with plans to launch new routes from Shanghai to Mongolia and Laos by March 2026 [2] - The company is committed to facilitating international exchanges and supporting high-level opening-up [2]

Group 1: Airline Industry Performance - In November 2025, the six major listed airlines in China achieved a total passenger transport volume of approximately 48.615 million, representing an 18.4% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [1] - China National Airlines led with a passenger transport volume of 13.0717 million, including 1.6374 million on international routes, which is a 19.7% increase from 2019 [1] - The international routes became a key growth driver, with a total of 6.305 million passengers transported, marking a 16.6% increase compared to 2019 [1] Group 2: Capacity and Load Factor - The overall load factor for the six major airlines remained high, with Spring Airlines leading at 92.3%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points from 2019 [2] - Other airlines also reported healthy load factors: China Eastern Airlines at 87.4% (up 7.2 percentage points), China Southern Airlines at 86.3%, and China National Airlines at 83.3% [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Strategy - The aviation industry is experiencing a clear pattern of "overall recovery with internal differentiation," with hub airlines leveraging their network advantages for steady growth [3] - Private airlines like Juneyao Airlines and Spring Airlines are adopting flexible strategies to penetrate international markets, showcasing significant results [3] - The competition is shifting from scale expansion to quality improvement, indicating a transition towards high-quality development in the aviation sector [3] Group 4: Airbus A320 Production Milestone - Airbus delivered its 800th A320 series aircraft from the Tianjin assembly line, marking a significant milestone in its operations in China [5] - The A321neo aircraft, received by China National Airlines, features advanced engines and a comfortable cabin layout, reflecting Airbus's commitment to enhancing its production capabilities in China [5] - The establishment of a second A320 assembly line in Tianjin further strengthens Airbus's global production network, which includes ten assembly lines worldwide [5][8] Group 5: Sustainable Aviation Initiatives - The A320neo series aircraft is designed to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by 20% compared to previous generations [6] - Airbus aims for all its aircraft to operate on up to 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030, highlighting its commitment to sustainability in aviation [6] Group 6: Localization and Global Integration - The delivery of the 800th A320 aircraft signifies China's evolution from a market and component supplier to a core assembly and delivery center in the global aviation manufacturing landscape [8] - This development underscores the quality and efficiency of China's high-end manufacturing system, aligning with international standards in aircraft manufacturing [8]

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines' stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent increase of 2.00% to 55.59 CNY per share, while the company faces a net outflow of funds [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 18, Spring Airlines' stock price increased by 2.00%, reaching 55.59 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.68 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.31%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 543.86 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has decreased by 1.48%, with a 5-day increase of 5.60%, a 20-day decrease of 0.61%, and a 60-day increase of 3.19% [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 16.773 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.98%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.32% to 2.336 billion CNY [2] - Since its A-share listing, Spring Airlines has distributed a total of 2.83 billion CNY in dividends, with 1.899 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Spring Airlines reached 30,200, an increase of 43.53% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 30.33% to 32,433 shares [2] - The second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 21.9475 million shares, a decrease of 765,500 shares from the previous period [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **financial, raw materials, and transportation industries** [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments Financial Industry - Current low interest rates may lead to financial mismatches, prompting central banks and banks to shift towards reasonable interest rate pricing [1][3]. - Social financing and M2 no longer have quantitative guidance, with loan growth stabilizing around **6%** [1][3]. - Personal loan growth is not significantly impacted by previous bad asset digestion [1][3]. - As of November, medium to long-term loans show signs of stabilization, while manufacturing investment has slowed to **1.7%**, below overall demand growth of **4%** [1][3]. - A balanced supply-demand relationship is expected to alleviate financial system risk concerns and industrial product price pressures, with a potential rebound in PPI by **2027** [1][3]. - Loan interest rates are stabilizing, which may gradually improve interest margins, and insurance yields are performing well [1][4]. - The financial sector is expected to benefit from government bond rates slightly rising, supporting fiscal policies to stabilize and enhance financial returns [1][4]. Manufacturing and Credit Demand - In **2026**, manufacturing credit demand is anticipated to weaken, while consumer loan growth is expected to decline due to high-interest consumer loan clean-up [5]. - The initiation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and increased local special bonds will support infrastructure loan demand, stabilizing overall financing needs [5]. - Strict management of hidden debts and real estate risks will continue, leading to a reduction in overall financial risks [5]. Insurance Industry - The insurance sector has significant growth potential, with household financial assets growing at **12%** [6]. - Insurance products are competitive, providing guaranteed rates along with retirement and health services, with growth expected to exceed household financial asset growth [6]. - China Ping An anticipates its BNB growth to exceed **20%**, indicating substantial upside potential [6]. - The insurance sector is viewed as an important investment target due to its long-term double-digit growth potential and the increasing interest from U.S. investors in the Chinese insurance market [6]. Raw Materials Industry - The macro environment for **2026** suggests a weak dollar in the first half, potentially rebounding in the second half, with ample liquidity in both China and the U.S. supporting commodity prices [7]. - Strong demand for energy storage and supply disruptions are expected to drive prices of copper, aluminum, and cobalt higher [7]. - Significant mining accidents have led to a tight supply situation for copper, with global copper supply expected to remain flat [7]. - Recommended stocks include those related to aluminum, copper, gold, lithium, and cobalt, such as Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [7]. Aluminum Supply and Demand - Global aluminum supply is projected to decrease by **700,000 tons** due to factory shutdowns, while new supply is expected to be **1.4 million tons** [2][8]. - Overall demand is forecasted to grow by over **2%**, but demand in the photovoltaic sector is expected to decline by **30%** [9]. Congo Fund's New Quota System - The new quota system from the Congo Fund has led to a significant reduction in supply, with expected output only **40%** of previous levels, resulting in market tightness [10]. Anti-Overcapacity Policies - Recent government meetings have emphasized anti-overcapacity policies, potentially limiting new capacity in coal, steel, and cement industries [11]. Other Important Insights - The Thai market for J&T Express has shown significant success, becoming the largest express company in Thailand, with a market share exceeding that of the second to fourth competitors combined [12]. - The competitive landscape in Thailand's express delivery market is intense, with low costs due to favorable geographic conditions and balanced regional economic development [14]. - Long-term growth potential for J&T Express is viewed positively, but uncertainties in Southeast Asia's e-commerce landscape may affect valuation [15]. - The aviation industry has shown positive performance, with significant growth in passenger traffic and improved pricing power for airlines [16].

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines will launch a direct round-trip flight route from Shanghai Pudong to Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, starting on March 3, 2026, marking a significant expansion in its international operations [1] Group 1: Route Details - The new route will operate twice a week, specifically on Tuesdays and Fridays [1] - The outbound flight (9C7057) will depart from Shanghai Pudong at 08:00 Beijing time and arrive in Ulaanbaatar at 12:00 local time [1] - The return flight (9C7058) will leave Ulaanbaatar at 13:00 local time and arrive back in Shanghai at 16:45 Beijing time [1] - The weekly seating capacity for this route is set at 740 seats [1] Group 2: Sales Information - The ticket sales for the new route have already commenced [1]

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines will launch a direct round-trip flight route from Shanghai Pudong to Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, starting on March 3, 2026, as part of its efforts to enhance Shanghai's international aviation hub and expand its "Belt and Road" route network [1][3]. Group 1: Route Details - The new route will operate twice a week, on Tuesdays and Fridays, providing a total of 740 seats weekly [3]. - The outbound flight 9C7057 will depart from Shanghai Pudong at 08:00 and arrive in Ulaanbaatar at 12:00 local time, while the return flight 9C7058 will leave Ulaanbaatar at 13:00 local time and return to Shanghai at 16:45 Beijing time [3]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The direct flight will efficiently connect the East China region with the Mongolian plateau, filling a critical gap in Shanghai's international aviation network and enhancing its hub function for the Yangtze River Delta, nationwide, and global connectivity [3]. - The low-cost operating model of the new route will significantly reduce travel costs and time for passengers, converting potential demand into actual passenger flow and stimulating tourism and business exchanges between the two locations [3]. Group 3: Tourism and Cultural Exchange - Ulaanbaatar serves as the political, economic, and cultural center of Mongolia, providing travelers with access to unique cultural experiences such as the Terelj National Park and the Genghis Khan statue [3]. - Shanghai, as a major entry point in China, offers attractive urban resources and cultural tourism facilities for international travelers, while the new route provides Mongolian travelers with convenient access to China's Yangtze River Delta economic circle [3]. Group 4: Promotional Activities - Spring Airlines has launched the "Taihua Calculation" winter sports theme activity, covering various popular domestic and international snow destinations, allowing travelers to plan their winter trips at a better cost [4]. - From now until March 20, 2026, travelers can obtain a snow travel coupon package worth over 500 yuan through Spring Airlines' official platform, enjoying exclusive benefits at partner hotels in locations like Zhangjiakou and Changbai Mountain [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2][7]. Core Insights - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor during the off-peak season, with both domestic and international travel thriving. The high load factor and slight recovery in ticket prices suggest a significant improvement in airline unit revenue. The implementation of "anti-involution" measures and the self-regulatory agreement by the China Air Transport Association is expected to reduce malicious low pricing, further supporting ticket price recovery and enhancing airline profitability. Additionally, the decline in oil prices is likely to reduce costs, contributing to further profit growth for airlines. Key airlines to focus on include China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [3][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The industry has seen sustained high passenger load factors since early 2025, with both domestic and international routes performing well. The off-peak season is not as weak as expected, with high load factors and a slight recovery in ticket prices, indicating a potential significant recovery in airline unit revenue. The implementation of self-regulatory measures is expected to mitigate low pricing practices, further supporting ticket price recovery and enhancing airline profitability [3][13]. 2. Off-Peak Passenger Load Factor and Ticket Prices 2.1 Supply and Demand - The capacity growth rate has rebounded, leading to an increase in passenger load factors. In October 2025, the industry’s Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) increased by 6.2% and 8.9% year-on-year, respectively, with a load factor of 87.4%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [4][15]. 2.2 Ticket Prices - Ticket prices have weakened in December, with the average domestic ticket price at 839 yuan, down 7.0% year-on-year. The average ticket price for domestic routes, including fuel, was 709 yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [4][23]. 2.3 Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel has slightly increased in December, with the domestic aviation fuel price at 6045 yuan per ton, up 3.9% year-on-year. The exchange rate of the Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, with the exchange rate at 7.0602 yuan per dollar as of December 16, 2025, down 1.78% from the end of 2024 [5][37]. 3. Airline Capacity and Load Factors 3.1 Operational Status - In November, most airlines maintained stable capacity growth, with significant increases in international capacity. The passenger load factors for both domestic and international routes have shown year-on-year improvements, significantly increasing compared to 2019 levels [4][43]. 3.2 Fleet Expansion - In November, Air China and China Southern Airlines each added 7 aircraft, marking the highest net increase among the six major airlines. From January to November, China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines saw net increases of 47, 26, and 21 aircraft, respectively [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines is suspending several routes between Japan and China due to market impacts and low passenger load factors, particularly following diplomatic tensions and natural disasters affecting travel sentiment [2][4][14]. Route Suspensions - Spring Airlines will suspend the route between Saga Airport and Shanghai Pudong International Airport starting December 22, with previous reductions in frequency from four to two flights per week [2][4]. - The route from Okayama Airport to Shanghai will be suspended from December 16 to March 28, 2026, with all flights operated by China Eastern Airlines [5][7]. - The Toyama-Shanghai route will also see a suspension from January 3 to March 28, 2026, with a total of 37 round trips canceled due to market issues [8][10]. - The Shizuoka-Shanghai route will be suspended from January 2026 until late March, with a significant impact expected on local businesses due to the high proportion of Chinese tourists [14]. Passenger Load Factors - The load factor for the Saga-Shanghai route dropped from over 90% to around 40% following a travel advisory from the Chinese government and subsequent earthquake alerts in Japan [4]. - The Okayama-Shanghai route had an average load factor of 82.4% in November, but the future operational plans remain uncertain [7]. - The Shizuoka route had a load factor of 67% in October, indicating a decline in demand [14]. Economic Impact - The economic impact of the Shizuoka route is significant, with an estimated economic effect of 35.4 billion yen for the fiscal year 2024, a 30% increase from 2023 [14].