Macro and Strategy Research - In June, social financing increased by over 90 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bond financing contributing over 50 billion yuan, indicating a strong support for social financing growth [2] - The short-term loans for enterprises increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 110 billion yuan in June, reflecting a cautious approach towards long-term loans due to external uncertainties and profit pressures [2][3] - M1 growth rate rebounded significantly by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6% in June, driven by accelerated fiscal spending and a reduction in seasonal government deposits [3] Economic Data Review - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, slightly below expectations, while the industrial added value in June grew by 6.8%, exceeding expectations [5] - The contribution rates of final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports to GDP growth were 52.3%, 24.7%, and 23.0% respectively, indicating consumption as the main driver of GDP growth [5] - The industrial production index showed a significant rebound in June, supported by increased working days and the release of policies [6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth has declined for three consecutive months, with manufacturing investment decreasing by 2.7 percentage points to 5.1% in June, reflecting cautious corporate investment sentiment [7] - Real estate investment growth rate fell to -12.9%, indicating ongoing demand-side pressures in the real estate sector [8] Industry Research - The mechanical equipment industry saw a 1.56% increase in the index from July 9 to July 15, outperforming the broader market [10] - Excavator sales in June reached 18,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, indicating a strong domestic market for construction machinery [10] - The easing of tariff uncertainties in Southeast Asia is expected to positively impact export dynamics in the mechanical equipment sector [10]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, expecting a growth rate exceeding 10% compared to the CSI 300 index [45]. Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, excavator sales reached 18,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. Cumulatively, sales for the first half of the year reached 120,500 units, up 16.8% year-on-year, with domestic sales at 65,600 units, reflecting a 22.9% increase year-on-year. The domestic engineering machinery market remains in a renewal cycle, and recent government emphasis on urban renewal is expected to boost domestic sales steadily [10][37]. - The gradual implementation of tariffs in major Southeast Asian countries has alleviated short-term uncertainties regarding exports, warranting continued monitoring of export changes [10][37]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The State Council issued a notice to enhance employment support policies, expanding the coverage of work-for-relief programs [4][19]. - Zhiyuan Robotics and Yushu Technology won a humanoid robot order worth 124 million yuan [4][19]. Key Product Recommendations - Companies recommended for "Increase" rating include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC Corporation [5][10]. Market Review - From July 9 to July 15, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.52%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry increased by 1.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.04 percentage points, ranking 6th among all primary industries [28][29]. Industry Data - As of July 11, 2025, the steel composite price index (CSPI) stood at 90.83 [20]. - As of July 15, 2025, WTI and Brent crude oil prices were $66.98 per barrel and $69.21 per barrel, respectively [21]. Company Announcements - Juxing Technology plans to acquire an 18.47% stake in Weina Technology to enhance its competitiveness in the chip sector [26]. - Yijiahe intends to extend the construction period of its Yangzhou Intelligent Manufacturing Center project by 2 years [27].

Core Viewpoint - The hydraulic motor industry in China is experiencing structural changes, characterized by differentiated import growth and simultaneous increases in export volume and value, reflecting the demand for high-precision and high-reliability products driven by domestic industrial upgrades [1][11]. Industry Overview - Hydraulic motors are key components in hydraulic systems, converting hydraulic pressure into mechanical energy, widely used in various industrial applications such as construction machinery, shipbuilding, and mining [2]. Industry Development History - The hydraulic motor industry in China has evolved through three main stages: the initial phase from 1952 to 1978, the rapid development phase from 1979 to 2000, and the mature and transformative phase from 2000 to present, with significant advancements in technology and production capabilities [4][5]. Industry Status - In the first five months of 2025, China imported 104,400 hydraulic motors, a year-on-year increase of 2.09%, with an import value of 629 million yuan, up 11.84%. Exports reached 929,900 units, growing 12.76%, with an export value of 810 million yuan, up 9.20% [1][11]. - The demand for high-end hydraulic motors is particularly strong in sectors like construction machinery electrification and industrial automation, with local companies making technological breakthroughs in high-end markets [1][11]. Industry Supply Chain - The upstream of the hydraulic motor industry includes raw materials such as steel, castings, and hydraulic oil, while the downstream applications span across various industrial sectors, with construction machinery being the largest application area [7]. Key Enterprises' Performance - The competitive landscape of the hydraulic motor industry features international giants dominating the high-end market, while domestic companies like Hengli Hydraulic and Aidi Precision are gaining market share through cost-effective strategies [15][19]. Industry Development Trends - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-end and intelligent products, with advancements in materials and electronic control technologies enhancing performance [21]. - Green manufacturing is becoming a standard, driven by environmental regulations and energy efficiency standards, pushing companies to adopt energy-saving technologies [22][23]. - The globalization of the hydraulic motor industry is shifting from an export-oriented approach to localized development, with companies establishing production bases in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [24].

本公司董事会及董事会全体成员保证公告内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实、准确和完整承担个别及连带责任。 江苏恒立液压股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 7 月 15 日接到 控股股东常州恒屹智能装备有限公司的通知，其名称由"常州恒屹智能装备有限 公司"变更为"江苏恒立控股集团有限公司"，有关工商变更登记手续已办理完 成，并取得营业执照。 证券代码：601100 证券简称：恒立液压 公告编号：临 2025-014 江苏恒立液压股份有限公司 关于控股股东变更名称及完成工商变更登记的公告 2025 年 7 月 15 日 上述工商变更事项不涉及该股东持股数量及持股比例的变动，对公司治理及 生产经营活动不构成影响，不会导致公司控股股东及实际控制人发生变化。 特此公告。 江苏恒立液压股份有限公司董事会 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [4]. Core Insights - The machinery industry is expected to see a moderate recovery in demand in the second half of 2025, driven by equipment upgrades and technological empowerment [4]. - Key companies in the machinery sector are projected to experience varied growth rates in Q2 2025, with notable performances from companies like SANY Heavy Industry (25% growth) and PCB manufacturer Ding Tai Gao Ke (66% growth) [4][5]. - The report highlights three main trends in the robotics sector: the advancement of humanoid robots, the entry of global giants into the robotics field, and the practical application of various robot forms in specific scenarios [4]. - In the rail transit equipment sector, significant investment is expected to continue, with a projected fixed asset investment nearing 900 billion yuan for the year, supported by strong passenger demand [4]. - The engineering machinery sector is approaching a cyclical turning point, with signs of recovery in demand and a favorable environment for new machine sales [4]. - The laser segment is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in general laser applications, driven by technological advancements and increased overseas exports [4]. Summary by Sections Robotics and Components - The humanoid robot industry is progressing towards commercialization, with significant contributions expected from companies like Greentech Harmonic and Wolong Electric Drive [4]. Rail Transit Equipment - In the first half of 2025, China's railway fixed asset investment reached 355.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, with expectations for continued high growth [4]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector has seen improved profitability and is positioned for a new sales cycle as construction activity resumes [4]. Laser Technology - General laser demand is rapidly increasing due to high-power technology iterations and new applications in consumer electronics and photovoltaics [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Hydraulic, anticipating a sequential business recovery driven by improving excavator component demand and potential growth in the humanoid robot sector [3][25]. Core Views - The report highlights that Hengli's earnings growth is expected to accelerate to 17% year-over-year (YoY) in 2Q25, up from only 3% YoY in 1Q25, primarily due to stronger demand for excavator components from Chinese OEMs and foreign customers [1][19]. - Revenue growth for Hengli is forecasted at 13% YoY in 2Q25, driven by the excavator component business, which is outpacing the overall growth of China's excavator industry [2][19]. - The report emphasizes that the market has not fully accounted for Hengli's potential to outgrow the Chinese excavator industry due to increased exports and restocking by foreign OEMs [2][19]. Financial Summary - Hengli's estimated net profit for 2Q25 is projected to be Rmb800 million, reflecting a 17% YoY increase and a 30% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase [2][8]. - The target price for Hengli is set at Rmb85.0, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 40x for 2025E, which aligns with its historical average [26][7]. - The expected total return for Hengli's shares is 22.1%, comprising a 21.1% price return and a 1.0% dividend yield [4][7]. Market Position and Strategy - Hengli Hydraulic is recognized as China's leading hydraulic parts supplier, focusing on the research, development, and manufacturing of hydraulic components [24]. - The company is preparing to produce up to 100,000 planetary roller screws for humanoid robot clients by 2026, despite uncertainties in demand from clients [25]. - The report notes that losses from Hengli's Mexico and ball screw & linear guide plants are expected to decrease as production ramps up [25].

Core Viewpoints - The mechanical industry is expected to outperform the market, with a focus on high-quality leading companies and structural growth opportunities [15][5][24] - The industry is undergoing a transformation driven by domestic upgrades, self-sufficiency, and accelerated overseas development [15][20] Industry Overview and Outlook - The core equipment localization is fundamental for the rise of the industry, breaking through bottlenecks in high-end equipment is essential for true autonomy and industrialization [15] - The trend of industrial upgrading is inevitable, with advancements in digitalization and energy transformation enhancing social efficiency and reducing costs [15] - The development of exports is transitioning from point to surface, with competitive manufacturing enterprises moving from import substitution to export substitution [15] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on emerging growth sectors and export-driven leading companies, particularly in areas such as humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and coal chemical equipment [25][26] - Key recommended stocks include Huace Testing, Guodian Measurement, and Yizhiming, among others [24][2] Key Recommendations - The report highlights specific companies for investment, including: - Humanoid Robots: Hengli Hydraulic, Huichuan Technology, and Zhenyu Technology [26] - AI Infrastructure: Yingliu Technology and Haomai Technology [28] - Engineering Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic, XCMG, and Sany Heavy Industry [29] - Nuclear Power Equipment: Jiadian Co., Zhongmi Holdings, and Jiangsu Shentong [29] - General Equipment: Huichuan Technology, Green Harmonic, and Baichu Electronics [29] Performance Tracking - In June, the mechanical industry index rose by 2.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.32 percentage points, with stable valuation levels [6][11] - The manufacturing PMI index for June was reported at 49.70%, indicating a slight improvement [6][12] Financial Projections - The report provides forecasts for key companies, indicating resilience in operations, with expected revenue and profit growth across various sectors [31] - For example, Hengli Hydraulic is projected to achieve a revenue of 27.68 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit of 7.96 billion yuan [31]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on undervalued leaders in the shipbuilding sector, particularly China Shipbuilding, and highlights potential investment opportunities in industrial gases and engineering machinery [3][9]. Core Insights - The global new ship price index showed a slight increase of 0.22% in June 2025, indicating a marginal improvement in industry sentiment [3][22]. - China Shipbuilding's H1 2025 net profit is projected to be between 2.8 billion to 3.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 98.25% to 119.49%, showcasing strong performance and capacity for profit release [3][22]. - Industrial gas prices have returned to positive year-on-year growth, driven by structural demand improvements and low inventory levels, with a significant increase in pipeline gas revenue expected for Hangzhou Oxygen [3][22]. - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a robust upward trend, with excavator sales in June 2025 reaching 18,804 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [3][36]. Summary by Sections General Machinery - The general machinery sector continues to face pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, indicating contraction [24]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector shows resilience, with domestic excavator sales increasing by 6.2% and exports by 19.3% in June 2025 [3][36]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is witnessing a slowdown in decline, with the new ship price index indicating a recovery trend [3][44]. Oilfield Equipment - The oilfield equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with global rig counts rising to over 1,600 units, reflecting a recovery in demand [3][47]. Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is expected to perform well in Q3 2025, benefiting from previous maintenance and low base effects [3][55]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine industry is on a steady upward trajectory, with significant order growth reported for leading companies [3][57].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the robotics industry, focusing on companies like Zhiyuan Chain, Hechuan Technology, and Hengli Hydraulic, highlighting their recent developments and market positions [1][2][4][5][10]. Core Insights and Arguments Zhiyuan Chain - Zhiyuan Robot has acquired 63.62% of Shangwei New Materials, changing the actual controller to Deng Taihua, which exceeded market expectations and may set a new paradigm for the robotics industry [2]. - Zhiyuan Chain is leading in business models, product positioning, and industrial ecology in the domestic market, with related companies expected to achieve breakthroughs in various application scenarios [1][4]. Hechuan Technology - Hechuan Technology completed an equity incentive plan and is expanding horizontally, expecting a revenue growth of 15-20% in 2025, significantly reducing losses and achieving profitability in 2026 [1][5]. - The humanoid robot segment is projected to generate approximately 5 million yuan in revenue in 2024, with expected shipments reaching 30 million yuan in 2025 [6]. - Hechuan has established deep connections with leading manufacturers like Zhiyuan, Xiaopeng, and Huawei, and is investing in sensor companies through an industrial fund [5][6]. Hengli Hydraulic - Hengli Hydraulic's market cap is around 90 billion yuan, facing challenges due to Tesla's order cuts and fluctuations in the construction machinery sector, but is seen as a long-term investment opportunity [10]. - The excavator segment is expected to grow by 10-20% in 2025, with a significant share of 40% in the domestic market [11]. - The company is also expanding into the medical device sector, with projected revenues of 200-300 million yuan in 2025, and a growth rate exceeding three times in the following years [14]. Dematech - Dematech is optimistic about its prospects in vertical scenarios, focusing on technological breakthroughs in vision, language, and motion modules, and is collaborating with Zhiyuan to develop a logistics industry model [15][16]. - The partnership with Zhiyuan allows for accelerated project order realization in the logistics sector, leveraging existing data collection platforms [17][18]. Resource Chain - Resource Chain holds a competitive edge in the robotics sector, with a strong brand, channel, and iteration speed, positioning itself ahead of many domestic competitors [19][20]. - The company emphasizes the importance of iteration speed for survival and growth in the robotics industry, which is crucial for adapting to market changes [21]. - The core assets of Resource Chain are its large and small brain systems and brand operations, which are critical for its competitive advantage [23]. Other Important Insights - The market has misconceptions about Resource Chain, often focusing too much on hardware while neglecting its unique business model and competitive strengths [27]. - The shift towards ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) models in the supply chain will lead to new investment opportunities and changes in market dynamics [25]. - The potential acquisition of Shangwei New Materials may involve injecting Resource Chain's brain or brand assets rather than manufacturing assets, reflecting a strategic focus on intellectual property and brand management [26].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" [4] - The specific companies recommended for "Increase" rating are Sany Heavy Industry (600031), Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), and CRRC (601766) [4] Core Viewpoints - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam includes a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on goods transiting through Vietnam to the US, which is expected to influence export chains [3][36] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in June 2025 were 77.2 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9.11% [13] - Sales of various excavators in June 2025 reached 18,804 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [14] - Sales of various loaders in June 2025 reached 12,014 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [15] Industry Data - As of July 4, 2025, the steel composite price index (CSPI) was 90.53 [16] - As of July 8, 2025, the WTI and Brent crude oil prices were $67.93 per barrel and $69.58 per barrel, respectively [17] Company Announcements - Zhonghe Technology plans to establish an aerospace venture capital fund with professional investment institutions, with a total fund size of 50.05 million yuan [23] - Hangcha Group's subsidiary, Hangcha Intelligent, intends to acquire 99.23% of Guozhi Robot through a capital increase and share expansion [24] - Shandong Molong announced a forecast for its half-year performance in 2025, with a year-on-year decline in net profit of 92.36%-94.12% [25] Market Review - From July 2 to July 8, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.41%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry increased by 0.42%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.99 percentage points [26] - As of July 8, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry was 26.93, with a valuation premium of 114.94% relative to the CSI 300 [27]