Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for the machinery equipment sector, specifically for construction machinery [5][28]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a recovery in excavator sales in June 2025, with total sales reaching 18,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. Domestic sales were 8,136 units, down 3% month-on-month but up 6% year-on-year, while exports were 10,700 units, up 19% year-on-year [1][2]. - The growth in second-hand excavator exports is expected to drive domestic replacement demand, with a notable increase in the market share of domestic brands overseas [1][4]. - The report highlights that domestic infrastructure investment has shown slight improvement, with a 5.6% year-on-year increase in completed investment in the first five months of 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Excavator Sales and Market Trends - In June 2025, excavator sales showed a recovery, with a total of 18,800 units sold, marking a 13.3% increase year-on-year. The domestic market saw sales of 8,136 units, while exports reached 10,700 units, reflecting a 19% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the role of second-hand excavator exports in supporting domestic demand, with May exports showing a 52% year-on-year increase [3]. Domestic Demand and Infrastructure Investment - The report notes a slight improvement in domestic demand, with new housing starts down 22.8% year-on-year in the first five months, a slight narrowing from a 23.8% decline in the previous period. Infrastructure investment, excluding electricity, increased by 5.6% year-on-year [2]. - The report anticipates that improved project funding will gradually translate into construction and equipment usage [2]. Recommendations for Key Companies - The report recommends key companies in the industry, including SANY Heavy Industry (600031 CH) with a target price of 23.10, LiuGong (000528 CH) with a target price of 14.55, and Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH) with a target price of 82.00, all rated as "Buy" [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical industry [1] Core Insights - The mechanical industry is experiencing significant advancements, particularly in humanoid robots and automation technologies, with major companies launching mass production of innovative products [3][4][6] - The humanoid robot sector is expected to see a breakthrough in 2025, with mass production levels reaching thousands of units, which will enhance data collection and training capabilities [6] - The agricultural machinery market is facing challenges, but long-term demand is anticipated to rise due to policy support and export opportunities [9] - The engineering machinery sector is currently under pressure domestically but is witnessing growth in exports, with a positive outlook for infrastructure investments [13] - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with government support and increasing applications in tourism and logistics [24] Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - On June 30, Junpu Intelligent's subsidiary launched mass production of humanoid robots, marking a significant milestone in the industry [3] - The Sichuan provincial government is promoting the development of humanoid robots and related AI products [3] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see substantial growth, with a focus on complex functionalities and cost reduction in production [6] Agricultural Machinery - The agricultural machinery market's sentiment index is at 40.9%, indicating a downturn [8] - Despite current challenges, tractor exports have increased by 12.6% in quantity and 31.2% in value from January to May 2025 [9] Engineering Machinery - In May 2025, excavator sales reached 18,202 units, with domestic sales declining by 1.5% but exports increasing by 5.4% [13] - The engineering machinery sector is expected to recover as infrastructure investments rise [13] Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is being actively developed, with initiatives in low-altitude tourism and support for eVTOL aircraft [24][22] - The government is encouraging the application of low-altitude equipment and services across various sectors [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3][4][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the humanoid robotics sector, including strategic partnerships and government support, which are expected to drive growth and innovation [1][2][3][4][19]. - The establishment of a 10 billion yuan investment fund in Hubei province aims to accelerate the development of humanoid robotics and AI technologies [23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain positioning and the identification of key players in the humanoid robotics market, suggesting a focus on companies with strong capabilities in various components [3][4]. Industry Dynamics - Humanoid Robotics: - Strategic collaborations, such as the one between Shanghai Robotics Institute and Madi Technology, are set to enhance the application of humanoid robots in healthcare and elder care [15]. - Companies like Junpu Intelligent and ByteDance are making strides in production and technology, with ByteDance achieving a production milestone of 1,000 robots in 2.5 years [19][16]. - Government Initiatives: - The Central Financial Committee has proposed measures to promote high-quality development in the marine economy, which may indirectly benefit robotics through enhanced technological capabilities [2][24]. - The establishment of the AI Infrastructure and the China-ASEAN AI Innovation Cooperation Center is expected to boost investment in AI-related sectors [25]. Key Companies and Investment Focus - The report identifies several key companies for investment consideration, including: - Humanoid Robotics: Focus on suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic, Huichuan Technology, and Zhaowei Machinery [3][4]. - AI Infrastructure: Companies such as Hanzhong Precision Machinery and Ice Wheel Environment are highlighted for their potential growth due to increasing AI demand [3][4]. - The report also notes the rapid development of the low-altitude economy and its implications for various sectors, including logistics and surveying [4][26]. Company Performance and Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for those rated "Outperform" [8][30]. - Notable companies include: - Green Harmony (688017.SH): Outperform rating with a projected EPS increase from 0.33 to 0.50 yuan [30]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ): Outperform rating with an expected EPS growth from 1.60 to 2.01 yuan [30]. - Zhaowei Machinery (003021.SZ): Outperform rating with EPS forecasted to rise from 0.94 to 1.11 yuan [30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The June PMI for the machinery industry has rebounded to 49.7%, indicating a recovery in general equipment and engineering machinery sectors [4][6] - Despite a decline in domestic engineering machinery operations, exports are experiencing rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% in May [5][6] - The overall demand for machinery equipment is expected to improve in the second half of the year due to easing US-China trade tensions and supportive fiscal and monetary policies [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the machinery industry has shown a relative return of 19.5% and an absolute return of 35.6% [3] General Equipment - The production index and new orders index have increased to 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating expansion [4] - The overall manufacturing sector is showing resilience, with a continuous recovery in PMI for May and June [4] Engineering Machinery - The average working hours for major engineering machinery products in June were 77.2 hours, down 9.1% year-on-year [5] - The average operating rate for engineering machinery was 56.9%, a decline of 7.55 percentage points year-on-year [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the engineering machinery sector, which is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and strong export growth [6] - Specific companies to watch include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, and Hengli Hydraulic [6] Key Company Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts and ratings for key companies, with several companies rated as "Buy" [20]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the machinery sector, particularly highlighting specific companies for investment opportunities [13]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector shows short-term fluctuations in operating rates but maintains a long-term recovery logic driven by domestic demand [7][25]. - The new shipbuilding prices have stabilized and are showing signs of recovery, indicating an upward trend in industry sentiment [7][46]. - The gas turbine sector is experiencing robust growth, with significant increases in orders and production expected [7][55]. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 0.26% over the past week, ranking 24th among 31 primary industry categories [3][16]. - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 8.29%, ranking 7th among the same categories [3][18]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The general machinery sector continues to face pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, indicating contraction [24]. Engineering Machinery - The operating rate for major engineering machinery products was 56.9% in June, down 7.55% year-on-year [7][25]. - The average working hours for these products were 77.2 hours, reflecting a decline of 9.11% year-on-year [7][25]. Shipbuilding - The global new ship price index reached 187.11 in June, marking a 0.22% increase, the first rise since February [7][46]. Oilfield Equipment - The global rig count has stabilized at over 1,600 units, indicating a bottoming out of demand in the oilfield equipment sector [48]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is on a steady upward trajectory, with GEV's new orders increasing by 44.9% in Q1 2025 [55][56]. Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery trends in various segments, including engineering machinery, shipbuilding, and gas turbines, as they present potential investment opportunities [7][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [43]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see early industrial applications, with local government policies accelerating the commercialization process. Key investment themes include technological upgrades and advancements in robotics [2][39]. - The engineering machinery sector is projected to maintain growth due to stable infrastructure investment and the acceleration of special bond issuance, despite a negative growth rate in excavator sales in May 2025 [2][39]. - The mechanical equipment sector has shown a bi-weekly increase of 4.30%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.05 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 industries [12][19]. Market Performance - As of July 3, 2025, the Shenyin Wanguo mechanical equipment sector's PE TTM is 26.77 times, with sub-sectors such as general equipment at 34.10 times and automation equipment at 45.21 times [1][23]. - The general equipment sub-sector had the highest bi-weekly increase of 5.64%, followed by automation equipment at 4.41% and rail transit equipment II at 3.53% [19][22]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Huichuan Technology (300124) and Greentech Harmonic (688017) for humanoid robots, and Sany Heavy Industry (600031) and Hengli Hydraulic (601100) for engineering machinery [2][39][41].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, with a focus on the production rhythm of humanoid robots and the potential investment opportunities in the industry chain [8][70][71] - The report recommends "overweight" ratings for specific companies including SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC [2][71] Industry Overview - In May 2025, excavator sales reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%, with domestic sales at 8,392 units, down 1.48% [7][24][70] - The report highlights that the domestic construction machinery market is currently in a renewal cycle, with urban renewal initiatives expected to drive steady demand for engineering machinery [70][71] - The humanoid robot industry is progressing well, with major manufacturers like Tesla clarifying their mass production routes, which is anticipated to accelerate the development of the industry chain [70][71] Market Performance - From June 1 to July 1, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.67%, while the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment industry increased by 2.85%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.18 percentage points [5][59] - As of July 1, 2025, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment industry was 26.75 times, with a valuation premium of 115.88% compared to the CSI 300 [67][68] Key Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a focus on investment opportunities in companies involved in urban renewal and humanoid robotics, emphasizing the importance of these sectors for future growth [70][71] - Specific companies recommended for investment include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC, all rated as "overweight" [2][71]

Summary of Conference Call on Engineering Machinery Industry Industry Overview - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing fluctuations in domestic market performance, particularly in excavator sales, which saw a decline in growth rate since April 2025. The expected growth rate for June is projected to be within ±5% [1][2] - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for the domestic excavator market remains positive, with strong production schedules for medium and large excavators [1][2] Company Performance Expectations - Annual net profit forecasts for key companies in the engineering machinery sector are optimistic: - SANY Heavy Industry: ¥8.5 billion - XCMG: ¥7.5 billion - Zoomlion: ¥4.8-5 billion - LiuGong: ¥1.8-1.9 billion - The second quarter is expected to show significant year-on-year growth for these companies [1][3] Market Dynamics - The domestic market has a high proportion of small excavators (70-80%), which have lower profitability. However, the export market has shown a year-on-year growth of 8-9% from January to May 2025, supporting overall performance [1][5] - Non-excavator products, such as truck cranes, have shown a notable recovery, alleviating some domestic performance pressures [1][5] Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The engineering machinery sector has seen a valuation correction, with P/E ratios for major companies at relatively low levels: - SANY: 17x - XCMG: 12x - Zoomlion: 12-13x - LiuGong: 10-13x - This presents a favorable investment opportunity [1][6] Future Market Outlook - The domestic market is not expected to experience significant declines in the coming months, with strong production data from Hengli Hydraulic and positive feedback from dealers regarding downstream demand [1][7] - If local government funding issues are resolved, the market is anticipated to gradually recover and grow in the second half of the year [1][8] Funding Sources and Government Impact - Funding for the engineering machinery industry primarily comes from two sources: small investors and central government allocations for water conservancy projects, which provide stable cash flow and support excavator demand [1][9] - The issuance of ¥1 trillion in government bonds, with 70-80% directed towards water conservancy projects, is expected to stabilize cash flow and support demand for excavators [1][10] Debt Replacement Effects - Local government debt replacement has led to a temporary decline in operating rates, but new projects are expected to increase in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, boosting excavator sales [1][11][12] Long-term Market Trends - The domestic excavator market is projected to experience an upward trend over the next few years, driven by replacement demand and the export of used equipment [1][13] - Non-excavator equipment markets are also showing signs of recovery, with significant improvements in profitability for companies like SANY [1][14] Export Market Performance - The export market for engineering machinery has remained stable, with excavator exports growing by 8% from January to May 2025, despite some fluctuations due to tariff adjustments [1][15] - Chinese brands have a significant presence in emerging markets, with potential for substantial growth in regions like Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America [1][19][20] Recommendations for Investment - Key companies recommended for investment include: - SANY Heavy Industry: Strong performance and potential for profit release - XCMG: Notable scale advantages, though facing short-term caution due to stock unlock issues - Zoomlion: Focus on tower crane and aerial work platform recovery - LiuGong: Attractive valuation with significant upside potential - Hengli Hydraulic: Strong short-term growth potential and global expansion opportunities [1][25][26]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry or specific companies [2]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with companies like Orbbec and Rongtai expanding their market presence and revenue projections [3][4]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for components and technologies related to humanoid robots, indicating a robust supply chain development [2][3][4][5][6][7]. Company Summaries Orbbec (688322.SS) - Orbbec's humanoid robot revenue is projected to grow from Rmb4 million in 2024 to Rmb30 million in 2025, with market share in China expected to surpass that of Intel's RealSense [3][10]. - The dollar content for 3D vision technology is anticipated to increase from Rmb4,000-5,000 to Rmb8,000 as it becomes integrated into more parts of the robot [3]. Rongtai (603119.SS) - Rongtai has a ~50% market share in micro ballscrews used in humanoid robots and is expanding its operations by building a factory in Thailand to meet US customer requirements [4][10]. - The company aims to grow its core business by 20%-30% CAGR, driven by rising penetration rates in the humanoid robot supply chain [4]. Hengli (601100.SS) - Hengli plans to reduce the production cost of planetary roller screws to ~Rmb1,000 by the end of 2025 and is considering establishing a plant in Houston, TX, to secure orders from US customers [5][10]. - The company targets a +10% YoY revenue and earnings growth, primarily driven by strong demand in the excavator component business [10]. Bozhon (688097.SS) - Bozhon's subsidiary Linkhou is expected to generate Rmb400 million-500 million in revenue in 2025 by providing components and assembly services to Zhiyuan [6][10]. - The company has sold Rmb20 million-30 million worth of humanoid robot assembly equipment to a leading US humanoid robot maker since 2024 [6]. Wolong (600580.SS) - Wolong aims to become the second electric motor supplier to Zhiyuan, targeting revenue growth from Rmb15 billion in 2024 to Rmb16 billion in 2025 [7][10]. - The company plans to pursue mergers and acquisitions to fuel long-term growth, with net profit expected to rise from Rmb793 million in 2024 to Rmb1.1 billion in 2025 [7][10].

Group 1: General Automation Equipment - In May 2025, the production of metal cutting machine tools in China was approximately 67,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a month-on-month decline of 9.3 percentage points [1] - The cumulative production from January to May 2025 reached about 332,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.3%, with a month-on-month decline of 3.5 percentage points [1] - The production of industrial robots in May 2025 was around 69,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 35.5%, but a month-on-month decline of 16.0 percentage points [1] Group 2: Engineering Machinery - In May 2025, the total sales of six types of engineering machinery, including excavators and forklifts, showed varied performance, with excavators up 2.1% and forklifts up 11.8% year-on-year [2] - Conversely, six other types, including truck cranes and aerial work platforms, experienced declines, with truck cranes down 20.3% year-on-year [2] - Domestic demand for engineering machinery appeared weak in May, attributed to insufficient project funding and adverse weather conditions affecting operational rates [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The manufacturing PMI in China rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% in May 2025, indicating a gradual improvement in manufacturing conditions [3] - The ongoing improvement in U.S.-China relations is expected to support continued growth in exports, further enhancing manufacturing sentiment [3] - The mechanical industry is rated as "buy," with a focus on engineering machinery companies benefiting from recovering domestic demand and sustained export growth [3]