中国民航将于2025年10月底换季，预计局方将继续严控时刻增长，特别是协调机场时刻总量或继续保持 稳定。考虑2025年机队低速增长且周转提升空间有限，预计淡季国内供给将继续低速增长。2024Q4价 格战或致航司明显亏损，预计反内卷短期有望管控过度低价，中期有望政策引导航司干线市场收益管理 改善。预计2025Q4淡季航司将继续大幅减亏，2025全年将行业性扭亏为盈。(格隆汇) | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | --- | --- | --- | | 00753 | | 5.670 4.81% | | 01055 中国南方航空股 | | 4.040 4.39% | | 00670 | 中国东方航空股 | 3.150 2.94% | 格隆汇9月17日｜港股三大航空股继续拉升，其中，中国国航盘中涨超5%领衔，中国南方航空涨超 4%，中国东方航空涨3%。 消息上，2025年国庆中秋假期合并，10月1日至10月8日放假八天，今年假期旅游热度高涨。航旅纵横大 数据显示，截至9月13日，今年中秋国庆假期国内航线机票预订量超452万张，日均机票预订量较去年同 期增长超25%。截至9月13日，今年中秋国庆假期的 ...

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，8月迎来暑运旺季高峰，航空市场运力运量稳步增长。继续 看好航空板块，供给逻辑确定性强，预计未来3-5 年行业机队供给增速趋缓，需求端具备弹性，客运量 和客座率持续增长均已在相对高位，可关注后续民航"反内卷"下票价回暖信号及趋势。同时，在外部油 汇变化配合下，航空公司能够释放较大业绩提升空间，推荐中国国航(601111.SH)、华夏航空 (002928.SZ)、春秋航空(601021.SH)、吉祥航空(603885.SH)、国泰航空(00293)、南方航空(600029.SH)、 中国东航(600115.SH)。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 暑运后半段进入旺季高峰，8月民航运力运量均同比增长 根据航班管家数据，8月民航旅客运输量约7508万人次，同比24年增长3.0%;民航国内运力同比24年增长 1.3%，国内客流量同比24年增长2.2%。8月国际客运航班约6.1万班次，恢复至19年同期的88.6%，中国 大陆赴日、韩、香港航班量排列前三。8月民航日均飞机利用率为8.9小时，环比+0.3%，同比+0.2%。 根据航班管家数据，8月宽体机日均利用率为10.5小时，窄体机为8.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [7]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing steady growth in capacity and passenger volume, with August data showing a year-on-year increase in domestic passenger transport volume by 3.0% and domestic capacity by 1.3% compared to 2024 [3][4]. - The report highlights that airlines are increasing capacity to meet the demand during the peak summer travel season, with a notable rise in passenger turnover and load factors across major airlines [4]. - The analysis suggests that the supply-demand balance in the domestic market is improving, with significant growth in capacity and volume for airlines like Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections August Data Overview - In August, the average daily aircraft utilization rate was 8.9 hours, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [4]. - Major airlines reported varying year-on-year changes in capacity (ASK) and passenger turnover (RPK), with Spring Airlines leading in growth [4][5]. Domestic Market Performance - The domestic market shows a balanced growth in supply and demand, with significant increases in capacity and volume for Spring Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines [4]. - Year-on-year changes in ASK and RPK for major airlines indicate a mixed performance, with some airlines like Spring Airlines showing strong growth [5]. International Market Performance - Airlines are significantly increasing international capacity, with several airlines surpassing pre-pandemic levels in terms of capacity and passenger turnover [4]. - The report provides detailed year-on-year comparisons for international operations, highlighting the recovery trajectory of major airlines [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on airlines such as China National Aviation, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, citing strong supply logic and expected growth in passenger volume and load factors [4][7]. - The analysis anticipates a gradual slowdown in fleet supply growth over the next 3-5 years, with resilient demand expected to support the sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The aviation industry shows steady growth in supply and demand as of August 2025, with ticket prices performing slightly better than in July. The report highlights a recent recovery in both volume and pricing [1]. - Domestic demand remains resilient, supported by internal growth and ongoing recovery in international routes. Supply constraints continue to be a factor, while falling oil prices are expected to reduce costs [7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in leading companies within the industry, particularly focusing on low-cost carriers and those with strong operational efficiencies [7]. Summary by Sections Airline Data Analysis - In August, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth year-on-year was led by Spring Airlines (12.0%), followed by Eastern Airlines (6.8%), Southern Airlines (6.4%), Air China (2.3%), and Juneyao Airlines (-2.7%). RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth was similarly led by Spring Airlines (12.2%) [1]. - Cumulative data from January to August shows Spring Airlines leading in ASK growth (10.0%) and Eastern Airlines leading in RPK growth (11.3%) [1]. - Domestic routes in August saw Spring Airlines with an ASK growth of 9.1% and RPK growth of 9.6%, while Air China experienced a decline in both metrics [1]. - International routes showed significant growth for Spring Airlines (ASK +27.2%, RPK +26.3%) and a strong performance from Juneyao Airlines [2]. Load Factor and Fleet Size - The load factor in August was highest for Spring Airlines at 93.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points. The cumulative load factor from January to August for Spring Airlines was 91.2%, reflecting a slight decline [3]. - The total fleet size of the five listed airlines increased by 12 aircraft in August, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for investment in the aviation sector, particularly for companies like Huaxia Airlines, which is expected to reach a sustainable operational turning point, and Spring Airlines, which is leveraging its low-cost competitive advantage [7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in international routes, with companies like Juneyao Airlines expected to benefit from efficient operations of wide-body aircraft [7].

Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector experienced a rise of 1.24% on September 16, with HNA Holding leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45% [1] Stock Performance - HNA Holding (600221) closed at 1.69, with a gain of 4.32% and a trading volume of 10.23 million shares, amounting to a turnover of 1.702 billion yuan [1] - Huaxia Airlines (002928) closed at 9.80, up 3.92%, with a trading volume of 211,400 shares and a turnover of 204 million yuan [1] - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 53.50, gaining 1.98% with a trading volume of 74,400 shares and a turnover of 397 million yuan [1] - China National Airlines (601111) closed at 7.92, up 1.67%, with a trading volume of 714,600 shares and a turnover of 564 million yuan [1] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 4.02, gaining 1.01% with a trading volume of 2.1582 million shares and a turnover of 866 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include: - Xiamen Airlines (600897) down 0.07% to 14.72 [1] - Shanghai Airport (600009) down 0.06% to 32.06 [1] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 271 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 178 million yuan [2] - HNA Holding experienced a net inflow of 79.14 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net outflow from retail investors [2] - Spring Airlines had a net inflow of 7.38 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors contributing positively [2] - China National Airlines faced a net outflow of 4.23 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a significant net outflow [2] - Xiamen Airport saw a net outflow of 1.34 million yuan from institutional investors, but retail investors contributed positively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation stocks have risen in the afternoon trading session, driven by increased demand for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday periods [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China National Aviation (601111) rose by 4.82% to HKD 5.44 [1] - Eastern Airlines (00670) increased by 3.74% to HKD 3.05 [1] - Southern Airlines (600029) gained 2.65% to HKD 3.88 [1] Group 2: Ticket Booking Trends - As of September 8, domestic flight ticket bookings for the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays exceeded 3.26 million, with a daily average increase of over 26% compared to the same period last year [1] - International flight ticket bookings surpassed 1.16 million, with a daily average increase of approximately 15% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Market Insights - According to Guotai Junan Securities, significant activities in early September have led to a rapid recovery in market volume and pricing, particularly in Beijing, with active business travel demand [1] - Anticipated major meetings in October are expected to shift business travel demand forward, supporting continued positive trends in volume and pricing through mid to late September [1] - Forecasts suggest that airline profitability may continue to grow year-on-year in Q3 2025, despite potential price wars in Q4 2024 leading to lower ticket prices [1] - The industry is expected to significantly reduce losses and potentially turn profitable for the year, driven by a recovery in business travel demand and a slowdown in fleet growth [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The aviation sector is expected to see a bottoming out of its economic cycle, with potential improvements in demand and pricing as the supply growth remains low [5][8] - Despite a decline in ticket prices during the peak summer season, there are signs of recovery in business travel demand, which may lead to better pricing in the near future [5][8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - China National Aviation (601111 CH): Buy, Target Price: 9.25 CNY [4] - China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH): Buy, Target Price: 4.80 CNY [4] - China Southern Airlines (600029 CH): Buy, Target Price: 7.35 CNY [4] - Spring Airlines (601021 CH): Buy, Target Price: 67.80 CNY [4] - 吉祥航空 (603885 CH): Buy, Target Price: 16.25 CNY [4] - 华夏航空 (002928 CH): Buy, Target Price: 13.65 CNY [4] - Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Buy, Target Price: 13.20 HKD [4] Industry Performance - In August, the three major airlines and Spring Airlines saw a 5.0% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and a 5.8% increase in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), leading to an overall passenger load factor increase of 0.6 percentage points to 86.8% [5][11] - Domestic ticket prices showed a year-on-year decline of 6.5% during the peak summer season, but there was a 2.5% increase in ticket prices in early September [5][8] Company-Specific Insights - China National Aviation reported a revenue of 80.757 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.6% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.806 billion CNY, narrowing by 35.1% [23] - China Eastern Airlines achieved a revenue of 66.822 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.592 billion CNY, narrowing by 42.5% [23] - China Southern Airlines reported a revenue of 86.291 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.533 billion CNY, which is a 24.8% increase in loss year-on-year [24] - Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 10.304 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 4.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.169 billion CNY, a 14.1% decrease year-on-year [24] - 吉祥航空 reported a revenue of 11.067 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.0% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.505 billion CNY, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [24] - 华夏航空 reported a revenue of 3.610 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 12.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.251 billion CNY, an increase of 859.0% year-on-year [24] - Cathay Pacific reported a revenue of 54.309 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, a 9.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.651 billion HKD, a 1.1% increase year-on-year [24]

Group 1 - The three major Hong Kong airline stocks, including Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, experienced collective gains, with Air China rising approximately 2%, China Southern Airlines increasing by 1.6%, and China Eastern Airlines up over 1% [1] - Goldman Sachs reported a strong rebound in the mainland aviation industry for the second quarter, but noted that summer performance was not ideal, with domestic air travel demand remaining weak [1] - The firm predicts a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in international ticket prices, while domestic ticket prices may improve starting in September [1] Group 2 - Air China's passenger turnover increased by 3.2% year-on-year in August, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability [2] - China Southern Airlines reported an increase in passenger turnover of 5.97% year-on-year and a cargo turnover increase of 5.48% in August [2] - China Eastern Airlines saw an 8.72% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in August and plans to hold a joint mid-term performance briefing on September 12 [2]

Core Insights - China National Airlines announced an increase in passenger turnover volume by 3.2% year-on-year for August 2025, measured in revenue passenger kilometers [2] - The average passenger load factor improved to 83.7%, up by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Passenger Operations - Passenger capacity input, measured in available seat kilometers, increased by 2.3% year-on-year [2] - Domestic passenger capacity input decreased by 1.2%, with passenger turnover remaining flat [2] - International passenger capacity input rose by 12.6%, with passenger turnover increasing by 12.9% [2] - Regional passenger capacity input fell by 5.7%, with passenger turnover declining by 2.2% [2] - The average load factor for domestic routes increased by 1.1 percentage points, while international routes saw an increase of 0.2 percentage points, and regional routes improved by 2.9 percentage points [2] Cargo Operations - Cargo capacity input, measured in available cargo ton kilometers, increased by 1.5% year-on-year [2] - Cargo and mail turnover, measured in revenue cargo ton kilometers, rose by 10.2% year-on-year [2] - The cargo load factor improved to 42.1%, up by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [2]

Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines (601111) (00753) reported an increase in passenger turnover volume and capacity for August 2025, indicating a positive trend in both domestic and international operations [1] Group 1: Passenger Operations - The group's passenger turnover volume (measured in revenue passenger kilometers) increased by 3.2% year-on-year [1] - Passenger capacity (measured in available seat kilometers) rose by 2.3% year-on-year [1] - Domestic passenger capacity decreased by 1.2%, while passenger turnover remained flat [1] - International passenger capacity increased by 12.6%, with passenger turnover rising by 12.9% [1] - Regional passenger capacity fell by 5.7%, and passenger turnover decreased by 2.2% [1] - The average passenger load factor was 83.7%, up by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Domestic routes saw a load factor increase of 1.1 percentage points, international routes increased by 0.2 percentage points, and regional routes rose by 2.9 percentage points [1] Group 2: Cargo Operations - Cargo capacity (measured in available cargo ton kilometers) increased by 1.5% year-on-year [1] - Cargo and mail turnover (measured in revenue cargo ton kilometers) rose by 10.2% year-on-year [1] - The cargo load factor was 42.1%, up by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 3: Fleet Expansion - In August 2025, the group introduced 3 A320 series aircraft and 3 B737 series aircraft [1] - As of the end of August 2025, the group operated a total of 941 aircraft, including 419 owned, 228 under finance leases, and 294 under operating leases [1]