全球航线网络拓展、"一带一路"航线开辟、成渝区域枢纽建设、高高原安全飞行……5月25日，第二十届中国西部 国际博览会（简称西博会）在成都开幕。中国国际航空股份有限公司（简称国航）以"乘西部之风 赴世界之约"为 主题，展现其全力服务国家战略、赋能区域经济的实践成果。 展会上，"飞享全球"板块聚焦国航突出的全球航线网络实力，以462条航线为基础，借助星空联盟，国航旅客可畅 达全球189个国家（地区）的1150个目的地。 "飞享丝路"则记录国航积极响应"一带一路"倡议，68条"空中丝路"航线既是奋力建设的证明，也是迈向更高目标 的起点。 "飞享成渝"展现国航以成都、重庆两地82个国内通航点、31个共飞通航点以及25条国际航线聚力推动成渝地区双 城经济圈建设落地航空领域。 "飞享雪域"以六十年一个甲子的轮回同贺西藏自治区成立60周年和国航拉萨航线安全飞行60周年。国航秉承以"永 攀高峰科学严谨 敢打能胜"为内涵的"飞越天堑"高高原精神，用60年的坚守与探索，淬炼高高原飞行"中国标准"， 助力西藏航空网络建设和西藏高水平对外开放。在国航展台，丰富的展示内容及飞行员科普讲座、精品餐食品鉴 等活动，吸引众多观众驻足参观、互 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the contrasting fortunes within the low-cost airline industry, exemplified by the struggles of Happy Airlines against the backdrop of profitable competitors like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines. It emphasizes that the challenges faced by Happy Airlines stem from internal issues rather than the overall industry climate [5][8][15]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The low-cost airline sector has seen significant growth, with the market share of low-cost carriers in the Asia-Pacific region increasing from 28.1% in 2020 to 32.4% in 2024 for domestic routes, and from 8.4% to 18.6% for international routes [11]. - In China, the low-cost airline market accounted for only 8.1% of domestic routes as of last year, indicating substantial growth potential as the market matures [11]. - Projections suggest that by 2025, the Chinese low-cost airline market could exceed 120 billion yuan, representing 25% of the total civil aviation transport market, with an annual compound growth rate of 18% [11][12]. Group 2: Happy Airlines' Struggles - Happy Airlines has faced continuous operational challenges since its inception, including a lack of profitability and high debt levels, with a reported asset-liability ratio exceeding 200% as of April this year [19][20]. - The airline's fleet primarily consists of the New Zhou 60 aircraft, which has not been well-received in the market, compounded by competition from high-speed rail networks [19]. - Despite attempts to diversify its fleet by introducing Boeing 737 aircraft, the airline's financial situation worsened due to the pandemic and increased operational costs [19][20]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines have established strong market positions through efficient operational strategies, such as maximizing seating capacity and minimizing operational costs [24][25]. - Traditional full-service airlines are increasingly competing in the low-cost segment, leading to price wars that blur the lines between low-cost and full-service offerings [28][29]. - The overall aviation industry is experiencing "profit anxiety," with average ticket prices declining significantly, impacting profitability across the board [30][31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the aviation industry is expected to see a turnaround in performance starting in 2025, driven by declining oil prices and long-term supply-demand optimization [1] - The overall trend in the aviation sector from 2025 onwards is characterized by increased volume and stable pricing, with international routes nearing full recovery [1][2] - Airlines are shifting their strategy from price prioritization to a balance of volume and price, with expectations of rising capacity and load factors in 2024, despite pressure on ticket prices [2] Group 2 - Supply of capacity remains constrained due to factors such as supply chain bottlenecks and trade frictions, with aircraft delivery rates expected to be below expectations in the coming years [3] - The significant drop in oil prices is expanding profit margins for airlines, with a 1% decrease in oil prices leading to cost reductions or profit increases for major airlines [4] - If fuel prices remain low in 2025, it will provide substantial support to airline profits [4]

Core Viewpoint - China International Airlines (Air China) has officially launched a direct flight route between Beijing and Toronto, marking a significant milestone in its global route network expansion [1][5]. Group 1: Flight Details - The new route, operated by Boeing 777-300ER aircraft, will have flight numbers CA993/994 and will run twice a week [3][5]. - The CA993 flight departs from Beijing Capital International Airport every Tuesday and Saturday at 12:30 PM, arriving in Toronto at 1:10 PM, with a total flight duration of approximately 12 hours and 40 minutes [3][5]. - The return flight CA994 departs from Toronto Pearson International Airport every Tuesday and Saturday at 4:15 PM, arriving in Beijing the next day at 6:10 PM, with a total flight duration of approximately 13 hours and 55 minutes [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The launch of this route increases the number of direct flights between Beijing and Toronto to three per week, including an existing weekly flight operated by Hainan Airlines [3][5]. - Air China aims to strengthen its presence in North America, where it already operates flights to major cities such as Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, Washington, and Vancouver [5][6]. - The reopening of the Beijing-Toronto route comes after over 30 years since it was last operated, highlighting the growing importance of Canada in Air China's global network [5][6]. Group 3: Community and Economic Impact - The resumption of this route is expected to facilitate easier and more efficient travel between China and Canada, enhancing mutual understanding between the two nations [6]. - Air China plans to continue expanding its capacity and services in the future, aiming to create a more efficient trans-Pacific aviation network [6].

为庆祝此次复航，国航在多伦多皮尔逊国际机场为首班出港旅客准备了首航留影、互动伴手礼。记者了 解到，首航当天，往返承运旅客约600人，几乎满员。 这也是国航北京—多伦多航线在时隔30余年后重启。国航方面表示，此次复航是其全球航线网络拓展的 又一里程碑。目前，国航在北美地区已开通洛杉矶、纽约、旧金山、华盛顿、温哥华五大航点，北京— 多伦多航线恢复后，将与现有的温哥华—北京航线形成联动。 当地时间5月20日，旅客姜先生与夫人在多伦多皮尔逊国际机场办理登机手续之后拍摄纪念照片，他们 将搭乘CA994航班前往北京。中新社记者余瑞冬摄 中国国际航空公司(简称"国航")新开的中国首都北京往返加拿大最大城市多伦多的客运直飞航线5月20 日正式启航。 国航北京—多伦多航线由波音777-300ER型客机执飞，航班号为CA993/4，运行频次为每周二、六共两 班。 加上目前海南航空公司执飞的每周一个往返航班的北京—多伦多客运直航航线，国航新航线使北京与多 伦多之间的直航航班增至每周三班。 当地时间5月20日，国航CA994航班班机从多伦多皮尔逊国际机场起飞，前往北京。 中新社记者余瑞冬 摄 国航20日晚在多伦多举行首航答谢招待会。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in ticket prices, with expectations for continued recovery in ticket prices during the peak travel season due to strong demand [3][5]. - The report suggests focusing on key airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines as potential investment opportunities [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report indicates that the passenger load factor remains high, with strong travel demand during the May Day holiday, leading to a noticeable reduction in the year-on-year decline in ticket prices [3][4]. 2. Industry Ticket Price Trends - The year-on-year decline in industry ticket prices has significantly narrowed, with ticket prices in May showing a decline of only 3.0% compared to the previous year [5][27]. - The average domestic ticket price from the beginning of 2025 until May 18 is 847 yuan, reflecting a 10.0% year-on-year decrease [5][27]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is affected by fleet issues, with potential delays in aircraft introductions due to supply chain problems and limited short-term improvements in utilization rates due to engine maintenance [3][4]. - The demand side shows sustained growth in travel demand during peak seasons, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics and a potential rise in ticket prices [3][4]. 4. Operational Performance of Airlines - In April 2025, domestic airlines experienced a year-on-year increase in capacity and turnover, with passenger load factors exceeding levels from 2019 [47][49]. - The report notes that China Southern Airlines had the highest net increase in aircraft in April, adding five aircraft to its fleet [47][48]. 5. Fuel Price Trends - The average price of aviation fuel has shown a continuous year-on-year decline, with May's average price at 5,385 yuan per ton, down 19.0% from the previous year [41][41]. - Brent crude oil prices have also decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 23.6% as of May 16, 2025 [41][41]. 6. Exchange Rate Stability - The exchange rate has remained stable, with the USD to RMB exchange rate at 7.1916 as of May 19, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04% from the end of 2024 [41][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation sector [5]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a notable improvement in passenger load factors, with April's load factor increasing by 2.8 percentage points to 84.3% year-on-year, driven by a 7.8% increase in capacity [1][2]. - Revenue management strategies are beginning to show positive results, with domestic ticket prices increasing by 11.5% during the week of May 5-11 [1][4]. - The supply growth in the aviation sector is expected to remain low, which, combined with effective revenue management, suggests a potential for improved profitability for airlines throughout the year [1][4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors - The three major airlines reported a load factor increase of 3.1 percentage points to 84.0% in April, with domestic routes showing a 3.9 percentage point increase to 85.3% [2][10]. - Spring Airlines experienced a decline in load factor by 2.5 percentage points to 88.2%, while Juneyao Airlines showed a strong performance with a load factor increase of 2.9 percentage points to 86.2% [3][10]. Capacity and Revenue - The total available seat kilometers (ASK) for the three major airlines and Spring Airlines increased by 7.8% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in capacity [10]. - Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) also rose by 11.5%, reflecting a strong demand recovery [10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the supply-demand structure will continue to improve, leading to a favorable environment for revenue management and profitability enhancement during the peak summer travel season [4][21]. - The expected low supply growth, coupled with rising ticket prices, is likely to support airlines' earnings recovery [1][4]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several airlines, including China National Aviation (601111 CH), China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH), with target prices set at 10.20, 5.15, and 69.10 respectively [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in the logistics sector, specifically highlighting SF Holding as a strong candidate due to its valuation, operational resilience, and shareholder returns [2]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 19.1% in business volume for April, while the average revenue per package decreased by 7% [2]. - The logistics sector is under pressure with domestic shipping prices for liquid chemicals declining, but there is a push towards smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. being recommended [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a recovery with an increase in flight operations and a new visa-free policy expected to boost inbound tourism [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index increased by 2.1% from May 10 to May 16, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1% [12]. Express Delivery - In April, the express delivery business volume reached 163.2 billion packages, a 19.1% increase year-on-year, with revenue of 121.28 billion yuan, up 10.8% [2]. - The average revenue per package was 7.43 yuan, down 7% year-on-year [2]. Logistics - The domestic shipping price for liquid chemicals was 163 yuan/ton, down 15.1% year-on-year [3]. - Hai Chen Co. is recommended due to its focus on smart logistics and improving demand in the consumer electronics sector [3]. Aviation and Airports - The average daily flight operations reached 14,919, a 5.58% increase year-on-year, with international flights up 17.67% [4]. - The introduction of visa-free travel for five countries is expected to enhance tourism [4]. Shipping - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was 1,104.88 points, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 20.5% year-on-year [22]. - The domestic container shipping index (PDCI) was 1,163 points, down 0.8% week-on-week but up 7.8% year-on-year [33]. Road and Rail - National highway truck traffic increased by 15.15% week-on-week, with a total of 51.75 million trucks [82]. - Railway passenger turnover was 1,121.34 billion person-kilometers, down 1.31% year-on-year [79].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The shipping industry is experiencing a surge in demand due to a recent temporary reduction in tariffs between China and the US, leading to a significant increase in shipping volumes on the US route. The average booking volume surged by 277% compared to the previous week [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 10.0% week-on-week, indicating a strong recovery in shipping rates, particularly for routes to the US [6] - The logistics sector is showing resilience, with express delivery volumes in April increasing by 19.1% year-on-year, reflecting robust demand across various sectors [9] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance favoring growth in the sector [12] Summary by Sections Shipping Vessels - The recent tariff reductions have led to a surge in demand for shipping services, particularly on the US route, with a projected increase in freight rates over the next 2-3 months due to supply constraints [5] - The average weekly capacity for the US route is expected to be 500,000 TEU, down 6% from last year [5] - The oil tanker market is facing supply tightness due to limited new orders and an aging fleet, which is expected to sustain high demand in the coming years [12] Express Logistics - In April, the express delivery industry in China saw a business volume of 16.32 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with revenue reaching 121.28 billion yuan, up 10.8% [9] - The concentration index for express delivery brands (CR8) was 86.7, indicating a stable competitive landscape [9] Aviation and Airports - The airline industry is poised for growth due to low supply growth and recovering demand, with key companies to watch including China Southern Airlines and Air China [12] - The passenger transport volume in March was approximately 59 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [50] Overall Market Performance - From May 12 to May 16, the transportation index rose by 2.12%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [17] - The shipping sector saw the highest increase at 7.42%, indicating strong market performance [17]

【文/观察者网 王勇 编辑/赵乾坤】 据民航局日前发布的数据，截至目前，中外航司执行国际客运航班周均达6428班，比去年同期增长 25.4%。其中中方航司执飞4470班，比去年同期增长31.4%；外方航司执飞1958班，比去年同期增长 13.6%。 中国东方航空航班《旅行与旅游世界》 数据显示，我国与共建"一带一路"国家间航班量份额稳步提高，目前航班量占比达到约72%。此外，今 年以来，我国国际航线网络不断完善，通航国家数量达到79个，国际航班通达性进一步提升。 随着我国国际航线网络不断拓展，"五一"假期期间，入境游客达111.5万人次，同比增长43.1%。今年以 来国际航线数量一路上涨，前4个月新增5个通航国家，79个国家的"国际特种兵"可以直接"空降"中国。 据国际旅游行业媒体《旅行与旅游世界》5月14日报道，中国东方航空今夏将强势拓展国际航线版图， 新开六条横跨欧亚大陆的空中通道，其中包括伊斯坦布尔、巴黎和阿拉木图三大全新航点。这一战略布 局将显著增强中国与欧洲、中亚核心城市间的航空联通性。 美国《航空周刊》日前报道称，中国东方航空公司正在深化其在欧洲和中亚的空中交通网络，该航司将 于 6 月 30 日 ...