Market Overview - On October 23, the aviation and airport sector rose by 0.38% compared to the previous trading day, with Shenzhen Airport leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3922.41, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13025.45, also up 0.22% [1] Stock Performance - Shenzhen Airport (000089) closed at 7.40, up 3.06% with a trading volume of 554,900 shares and a turnover of 408 million yuan [1] - Xiamen Airport (600897) closed at 15.35, up 1.12% with a trading volume of 67,900 shares and a turnover of 105 million yuan [1] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 4.94, up 0.82% with a trading volume of 966,200 shares and a turnover of 473 million yuan [1] - China Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 6.66, up 0.45% with a trading volume of 608,500 shares and a turnover of 403 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net inflow of 32.22 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net inflow of 35.07 million yuan [2] - However, speculative funds recorded a net outflow of 67.29 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - China Southern Airlines (600029) had a net inflow of 69.47 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 34.49 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) saw a net inflow of 39.42 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 3.79 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Shenzhen Airport (000089) experienced a net outflow of 11.13 million yuan from institutional investors, but had a net inflow of 5.62 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Xilinhot Airport, Air China, and Huaxia Airlines aims to enhance winter travel services and expand flight routes for the 2025 winter season [1][2][3] Group 1: Flight Services and Products - Air China introduced a "ticket + skiing" travel service, offering discounts for ski resorts in Hohhot when booking flights on the Xilinhot-Hohhot route [2] - Huaxia Airlines presented various travel products, including the Mohe Northern Lights package on the Xilinhot-Harbin route and outbound travel options to Japan and South Korea [2] - Xilinhot Airport highlighted new routes for the 2025 winter season, including Xilinhot-Zhengzhou-Guangzhou and Xilinhot-Baotou-Xi'an, along with convenient transfer services [2] Group 2: Strategic Collaboration and Market Development - The visit served as a platform for face-to-face communication among airlines, tourism enterprises, and the airport, promoting resource sharing and mutual benefits [3] - Xilinhot Airport plans to leverage this event to further expand its route network and promote new travel products, enhancing the integration of aviation and tourism [3] - The initiative aims to improve service quality and operational efficiency, contributing to the high-quality development of the regional economy and facilitating citizen travel [3]

Market Overview - On October 22, the aviation and airport sector declined by 0.19% compared to the previous trading day, with Huaxia Airlines leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3913.76, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.61, down 0.62% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the aviation and airport sector showed mixed performance, with China Eastern Airlines up by 0.82% to 4.90, while Huaxia Airlines fell by 2.36% to 10.77 [2][3] - The trading volume and turnover for major stocks included: - China Eastern Airlines: 1.0972 million shares, turnover of 534 million yuan - Huaxia Airlines: 327,400 shares, turnover of 351 million yuan - Xiamen Airport: 48,400 shares, turnover of 73.69 million yuan [1][2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 152 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 168 million yuan [2][3] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks included: - China Eastern Airlines: Net inflow of 50.62 million yuan from institutional investors - Huaxia Airlines: Net inflow of 2.51 million yuan from institutional investors - Xiamen Airport: Net outflow of 6.81 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Insights - The core focus of the news is the successful hosting of the Linyi Airport's 2025 winter-spring flight schedule promotion conference, emphasizing the optimization of flight networks, enhancement of services, and convenience for travelers [1] Flight Network Expansion - Linyi Airport will restore flights to Beijing, achieving full coverage of the top ten domestic hubs (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Harbin, Kunming, Xi'an, Urumqi) [2] - The new flight season will optimize and increase the frequency of routes to key domestic hubs and popular tourist cities, ensuring sufficient capacity and optimized schedules for essential routes to meet the travel needs of business and leisure travelers [2] Service Enhancement - The flight schedule change represents not only an expansion of routes but also a significant improvement in service efficiency [3] - Linyi Airport will continue to implement "first-time passenger services" and promote the construction of a "smart airport," optimizing the entire service process including check-in, security checks, and boarding to reduce passenger waiting times [3] - Collaborations with airlines and travel agencies will lead to the introduction of special ticket prices and diversified travel products such as "flight + hotel" and "flight + scenic spots," benefiting the public and stimulating air travel consumption [3] Economic Development Collaboration - The flight schedule change is a crucial measure for Linyi Airport to adapt to market demands and support local economic and social development [4] - The airport aims to establish itself as an important aviation hub in the southern Shandong and northern Jiangsu regions, continuously improving its flight network to facilitate external openness, deepen economic cooperation, and promote tourism development [4] - Representatives from the cultural and tourism bureau, airlines, travel agencies, and corporate clients highly praised the new flight season plan, believing it will greatly facilitate local residents' travel and attract more visitors and business people to Linyi, injecting new vitality into the local economy [4]

重视航空超级周期长逻辑，重申增持 20251021 摘要 中国航空业正处于超级周期的初级阶段，人口红利持续驱动需求增长， 叠加疫情后出行意愿增强，即使宏观经济形势未明显改善，航空需求依 然强劲。 票价市场化改革基本完成，主要干线航线全票价已实现 50%-70%的上 调。同时，"十四五"期间机队增速显著放缓至小个位数，减轻了三四 线城市增投压力，有利于提升行业盈利中枢。 2025 年中国航空业进入供给递增时代，通过优化空域时刻管理、合理 控制飞机引进速度、提高机队周转效率及提升客座率来实现，预计该趋 势将持续 15 年。 自 2019 年以来，中国航空业客座率显著提升，部分航线已接近极限。 未来供需改善将更多体现在票价上，行业已进入供给低增时代，主要受 空域时刻瓶颈和飞机制造产能恢复缓慢等因素影响。 2025 年以来，中国航空市场需求整体稳健增长，与 GDP 增长呈正相关 关系。二季度公商务出行活跃，三季度因私出行强劲，9 月份工商务出 行快速恢复，整体趋势向好。 Q&A 近年来航空板块的投资机会如何？其背后的长逻辑是什么？ 航空板块自 2025 年 9 月以来表现亮眼，我们认为这不仅是短期票价同比上升 和油价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic airline ticket prices in September showed a year-on-year increase driven by improved supply and demand dynamics, with expectations for a turning point in Q4 2025 as the supply-demand gap narrows [1] Industry Dynamics - In September, the demand for air travel benefited from increased passenger flow and longer flight distances, resulting in a higher growth rate than supply. The passenger load factor for both domestic and international routes reached record highs [1] - The six listed airlines in A-shares reported a combined ASK/RPK growth of +4.0%/+7.1% year-on-year in September, with domestic passenger load factors reaching 87.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest level for September in history [1] - For international routes, the supply growth rate slowed, leading to a widening gap with demand growth. The ASK/RPK for international routes increased by +8.7%/+13.6% year-on-year, with a passenger load factor increase of 3.5 percentage points [1] Aircraft Utilization and Pricing - The aircraft utilization rate in September remained high at 7.8 hours, with narrow-body aircraft showing a slight increase of +0.4% year-on-year [2] - The domestic passenger load factor for the six airlines reached 87.3%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, and 3.9 percentage points compared to 2019, achieving a historical high [2] - Domestic economy class ticket prices increased by +0.6% year-on-year, while international ticket prices decreased by -15.2% [2] Fleet Expansion - The fleet of the six listed airlines grew by 0.3% month-on-month, with a total of 3,340 aircraft managed as of September 2025, reflecting a net increase of 11 aircraft [3] - The main aircraft types introduced were narrow-body models, including 19 new narrow-body aircraft in September [3] Investment Targets - Key companies to watch include China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), Huaxia Airlines (002928.SZ), Air China (601111.SH), China Southern Airlines (600029.SH), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), and Spring Airlines (601021.SH) [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the airline sector, highlighting the potential for price recovery driven by improved supply-demand dynamics [6][10]. Core Insights - In September 2025, the airline industry experienced a significant increase in passenger load factors, with domestic and international routes reaching record highs. The combined ASK/RPK for six listed airlines grew by 4.0% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the tight supply-demand relationship, with a notable recovery in business travel demand contributing to price increases. The domestic passenger load factor reached 87.3%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest level for September in history [4][13]. - The report suggests that the industry is entering a critical phase where supply constraints may lead to sustained price improvements, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][24]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors and Pricing - The report indicates that high passenger load factors in September have led to price increases, with domestic economy class ticket prices rising by 2.4% year-on-year. International ticket prices, however, saw a decline of 15.2% [4][13]. - The domestic load factor for the six airlines reached 87.3%, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the same period in 2019, reflecting strong demand recovery [4][12]. Fleet Expansion - The total fleet of the six listed airlines increased by 0.3% in September 2025, with a net addition of 11 aircraft. The primary models introduced were the A320 and B737 series [5][24]. - China National Airlines led the fleet expansion with a net increase of 5 aircraft, while Eastern Airlines added 2 aircraft during the same period [26][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to focus on the sustainability of price improvements in the fourth quarter, particularly for business routes. The recovery in business travel is expected to enhance investor sentiment in the sector [5][24]. - Key airlines to watch include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others [5][6].

Core Insights - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has announced the winter-spring schedule for 2025, with domestic flight schedules contracting for two consecutive seasons, showing a decrease of 1.0% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025 [1] - Domestic average ticket prices have increased by 5.9%, with an average daily passenger load factor of 87.9%, which is an increase of 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The international market is experiencing a peak after the summer season, with daily international passenger flights exceeding 2000, marking a 10.6% increase compared to the National Day holiday in 2024 [1] - Shipping giants like MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have collectively raised prices on multiple routes, with increases ranging from $600 to $2000 per container, indicating a structural upward cycle in the shipping industry [1] - Analysts attribute the price hikes to a combination of reduced capacity at European and American ports, adjustments in Red Sea and African routes, and global manufacturing restocking [1] - Oil prices have declined for three consecutive weeks, with the average price of jet fuel in October showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [1] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from fiscal policies, with potential cost advantages from falling oil prices, although exchange rate pressures remain [1] Industry Performance - Domestic ticket prices have turned positive, increasing by 3.0% from week 36 to week 41, aided by industry "de-involution" and improved revenue management by airlines [2] - The decline in oil prices is anticipated to alleviate cost pressures, enhancing airlines' profitability [2] - The appreciation of the Renminbi is also seen as a significant support factor for the industry [2] Related Companies - China Eastern Airlines (00670) [3] - China Southern Airlines (600029) (01055) [3] - Air China (601111) (00753) [3] - Cathay Pacific Airways (00293) [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express logistics is positive due to healthy competition [3][13] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in VLCC freight rates anticipated in Q4 2025 [13] - The aviation industry is seeing stable demand growth, with supply chain issues leading to increased costs for airlines. The overall passenger demand is projected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, outpacing capacity growth [9][14] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In September 2025, major express companies reported improved performance, with YTO, Shentong, and Yunda achieving business volumes of 2.627 billion, 2.187 billion, and 2.110 billion pieces, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.64%, 9.46%, and 3.63% [3][27] - The average revenue per piece for these companies also saw increases, indicating a trend of rising prices in the express delivery sector [3][27] Shipping and Ports - The implementation of new port fees between China and the US is expected to create a dual market structure, granting strategic pricing power to compliant shipping capacities [5] - China has secured pricing power for iron ore, marking a significant shift in global commodity trade dynamics [6] - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 12.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [7] Aviation - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that supply chain bottlenecks are delaying aircraft production, leading to increased costs for airlines, estimated to exceed $11 billion in 2025 [9] - Chinese airlines collectively oppose the US Department of Transportation's proposed flight restrictions, highlighting concerns over operational impacts [10] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were reported to be running smoothly, with significant increases in highway freight traffic [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance electric vehicle charging infrastructure along highways by 2027 [12] Overall Market Performance - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 0.73%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.47% [18]

Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector experienced a significant increase of 3.27% on October 20, with China Eastern Airlines leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3863.89, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12813.21, up 0.98% [1] Stock Performance - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 4.78, up 6.70%, with a trading volume of 3.0187 million shares and a turnover of 1.412 billion [1] - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 6.60, up 6.28%, with a trading volume of 1.7359 million shares and a turnover of 1.122 billion [1] - Xiamen Airport (600897) saw a decline of 0.85%, closing at 15.20, with a trading volume of 130,300 shares [2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net inflow of 757 million in main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 534 million [2][3] - Southern Airlines had a net inflow of 184 million from main funds, but a net outflow of 134 million from retail investors [3] - China Eastern Airlines recorded a net inflow of 150 million from main funds, with a net outflow of 147 million from retail investors [3]