中国民航将于2025年10月底换季，预计局方将继续严控时刻增长，特别是协调机场时刻总量或继续保持 稳定。考虑2025年机队低速增长且周转提升空间有限，预计淡季国内供给将继续低速增长。2024Q4价 格战或致航司明显亏损，预计反内卷短期有望管控过度低价，中期有望政策引导航司干线市场收益管理 改善。预计2025Q4淡季航司将继续大幅减亏，2025全年将行业性扭亏为盈。(格隆汇) | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | --- | --- | --- | | 00753 | | 5.670 4.81% | | 01055 中国南方航空股 | | 4.040 4.39% | | 00670 | 中国东方航空股 | 3.150 2.94% | 格隆汇9月17日｜港股三大航空股继续拉升，其中，中国国航盘中涨超5%领衔，中国南方航空涨超 4%，中国东方航空涨3%。 消息上，2025年国庆中秋假期合并，10月1日至10月8日放假八天，今年假期旅游热度高涨。航旅纵横大 数据显示，截至9月13日，今年中秋国庆假期国内航线机票预订量超452万张，日均机票预订量较去年同 期增长超25%。截至9月13日，今年中秋国庆假期的 ...

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，8月迎来暑运旺季高峰，航空市场运力运量稳步增长。继续 看好航空板块，供给逻辑确定性强，预计未来3-5 年行业机队供给增速趋缓，需求端具备弹性，客运量 和客座率持续增长均已在相对高位，可关注后续民航"反内卷"下票价回暖信号及趋势。同时，在外部油 汇变化配合下，航空公司能够释放较大业绩提升空间，推荐中国国航(601111.SH)、华夏航空 (002928.SZ)、春秋航空(601021.SH)、吉祥航空(603885.SH)、国泰航空(00293)、南方航空(600029.SH)、 中国东航(600115.SH)。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 暑运后半段进入旺季高峰，8月民航运力运量均同比增长 根据航班管家数据，8月民航旅客运输量约7508万人次，同比24年增长3.0%;民航国内运力同比24年增长 1.3%，国内客流量同比24年增长2.2%。8月国际客运航班约6.1万班次，恢复至19年同期的88.6%，中国 大陆赴日、韩、香港航班量排列前三。8月民航日均飞机利用率为8.9小时，环比+0.3%，同比+0.2%。 根据航班管家数据，8月宽体机日均利用率为10.5小时，窄体机为8.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [7]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing steady growth in capacity and passenger volume, with August data showing a year-on-year increase in domestic passenger transport volume by 3.0% and domestic capacity by 1.3% compared to 2024 [3][4]. - The report highlights that airlines are increasing capacity to meet the demand during the peak summer travel season, with a notable rise in passenger turnover and load factors across major airlines [4]. - The analysis suggests that the supply-demand balance in the domestic market is improving, with significant growth in capacity and volume for airlines like Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections August Data Overview - In August, the average daily aircraft utilization rate was 8.9 hours, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [4]. - Major airlines reported varying year-on-year changes in capacity (ASK) and passenger turnover (RPK), with Spring Airlines leading in growth [4][5]. Domestic Market Performance - The domestic market shows a balanced growth in supply and demand, with significant increases in capacity and volume for Spring Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines [4]. - Year-on-year changes in ASK and RPK for major airlines indicate a mixed performance, with some airlines like Spring Airlines showing strong growth [5]. International Market Performance - Airlines are significantly increasing international capacity, with several airlines surpassing pre-pandemic levels in terms of capacity and passenger turnover [4]. - The report provides detailed year-on-year comparisons for international operations, highlighting the recovery trajectory of major airlines [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on airlines such as China National Aviation, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, citing strong supply logic and expected growth in passenger volume and load factors [4][7]. - The analysis anticipates a gradual slowdown in fleet supply growth over the next 3-5 years, with resilient demand expected to support the sector [4].

行业研究 8 月航司供需延续稳步增长，票价同比表现略 推荐（维持） 好于 7 月，关注近期量价回暖 ❑ 航司 8 月数据分析： 1、整体来看，8 月：ASK 同比：春秋(12.0%) > 东航(6.8%) > 南航(6.4%) > 国 航(2.3%) > 吉祥(-2.7%)，RPK 同比：春秋(12.2%) > 东航(8.7%) > 南航(6.0%) > 国航(3.2%) > 吉祥(-1.9%)； 1~8 月累计：ASK 同比：春秋(10.0%) > 东航(7.4%) > 南航(5.8%) > 国航 (3.1%) > 吉祥(2.3%) ，RPK 同比：东航(11.3%) > 春秋(9.1%) > 南航(7.9%) > 国航(4.5%) > 吉祥(2.9%)。 1)国内线，8 月：ASK 同比：春秋(9.1%) > 南航(4.9%) > 东航(3.3%) > 国航(- 1.2%) > 吉祥(-6.8%)，RPK 同比：春秋(9.6%) > 东航(5.5%) > 南航(4.9%) > 国 航(0.0%) > 吉祥(-7.1%)； 1~8 月累计：ASK 同比：春秋(4.7%) > 东航(1.9%) > 南航(1. ...

从资金流向上来看，当日航空机场板块主力资金净流出2.71亿元，游资资金净流入9371.05万元，散户资 金净流入1.78亿元。航空机场板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，9月16日航空机场板块较上一交易日上涨1.24%，海航控股领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3861.87，上涨0.04%。深证成指报收于13063.97，上涨0.45%。航空机场板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600221 | 海航控股 | 1.69 | 4.32% | 1023.29万 | 17.02亿 | | 002928 | 华夏航空 | 9.80 | 3.92% | 21.14万 | 2.04亿 | | 601021 | 春秋航空 | 53.50 11 | 1.98% | 7.44万 | 3.97亿 | | 601111 | 中国国航 | 7.92 | 1.67% | 71.46万 | 5.64亿 | | 600115 | 中国东航 | 4.02 | 1.01% | 215.82万 | ...

国泰海通证券发布研报称，9月初重大活动后，北京市场带动量价快速回升，其中公商需求出行活跃； 考虑10月重大会议影响，公商需求前移将保障9月中下旬量价继续向好；预计2025Q3航司盈利仍有望同 比增长。考虑2024Q4价格战致低票价，预计反内卷将助力淡季票价表现好于上半年，航司有望继续同 比大幅减亏，全年将行业性扭亏。重视航空长逻辑，待公商需求恢复，考虑票价市场化与机队增速放 缓，航司盈利中枢将上升且持续。 航空股午后走高，截至发稿，中国国航（601111）(00753)涨4.82%，报5.44港元；东方航空(00670)涨 3.74%，报3.05港元；南方航空（600029）(01055)涨2.65%，报3.88港元。 消息面上，根据航旅纵横，截至9月8日，今年中秋国庆假期国内航线机票预订量超326万张，日均机票 预订量较去年同期增长超26%。今年中秋国庆假期的出入境航线机票预订量已超116万张，日均机票预 订量比去年同期增长约15%。随着中秋国庆小长假到来，航空出行需求有望提振。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The aviation sector is expected to see a bottoming out of its economic cycle, with potential improvements in demand and pricing as the supply growth remains low [5][8] - Despite a decline in ticket prices during the peak summer season, there are signs of recovery in business travel demand, which may lead to better pricing in the near future [5][8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - China National Aviation (601111 CH): Buy, Target Price: 9.25 CNY [4] - China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH): Buy, Target Price: 4.80 CNY [4] - China Southern Airlines (600029 CH): Buy, Target Price: 7.35 CNY [4] - Spring Airlines (601021 CH): Buy, Target Price: 67.80 CNY [4] - 吉祥航空 (603885 CH): Buy, Target Price: 16.25 CNY [4] - 华夏航空 (002928 CH): Buy, Target Price: 13.65 CNY [4] - Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Buy, Target Price: 13.20 HKD [4] Industry Performance - In August, the three major airlines and Spring Airlines saw a 5.0% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and a 5.8% increase in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), leading to an overall passenger load factor increase of 0.6 percentage points to 86.8% [5][11] - Domestic ticket prices showed a year-on-year decline of 6.5% during the peak summer season, but there was a 2.5% increase in ticket prices in early September [5][8] Company-Specific Insights - China National Aviation reported a revenue of 80.757 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.6% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.806 billion CNY, narrowing by 35.1% [23] - China Eastern Airlines achieved a revenue of 66.822 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.592 billion CNY, narrowing by 42.5% [23] - China Southern Airlines reported a revenue of 86.291 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.533 billion CNY, which is a 24.8% increase in loss year-on-year [24] - Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 10.304 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 4.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.169 billion CNY, a 14.1% decrease year-on-year [24] - 吉祥航空 reported a revenue of 11.067 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.0% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.505 billion CNY, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [24] - 华夏航空 reported a revenue of 3.610 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 12.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.251 billion CNY, an increase of 859.0% year-on-year [24] - Cathay Pacific reported a revenue of 54.309 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, a 9.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.651 billion HKD, a 1.1% increase year-on-year [24]

Group 1 - The three major Hong Kong airline stocks, including Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, experienced collective gains, with Air China rising approximately 2%, China Southern Airlines increasing by 1.6%, and China Eastern Airlines up over 1% [1] - Goldman Sachs reported a strong rebound in the mainland aviation industry for the second quarter, but noted that summer performance was not ideal, with domestic air travel demand remaining weak [1] - The firm predicts a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in international ticket prices, while domestic ticket prices may improve starting in September [1] Group 2 - Air China's passenger turnover increased by 3.2% year-on-year in August, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability [2] - China Southern Airlines reported an increase in passenger turnover of 5.97% year-on-year and a cargo turnover increase of 5.48% in August [2] - China Eastern Airlines saw an 8.72% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in August and plans to hold a joint mid-term performance briefing on September 12 [2]

（文章来源：新京报） 新京报贝壳财经讯 9月15日晚，中国国航公告，2025年8月，公司合并旅客周转量(按收入客公里计)同比 上升。客运运力投入(按可用座位公里计)同比上升2.3%，旅客周转量同比上升3.2%。其中，国内客运运 力投入同比下降1.2%，旅客周转量同比持平；国际客运运力投入同比上升12.6%，旅客周转量同比上升 12.9%；地区客运运力投入同比下降5.7%，旅客周转量同比下降2.2%。平均客座率83.7%，同比上升0.8 个百分点。其中，国内航线同比上升1.1个百分点，国际航线同比上升0.2个百分点，地区航线同比上升 2.9个百分点。货运方面，货运运力投入(按可用货运吨公里计)同比上升1.5%，货邮周转量(按收入货运 吨公里计)同比上升10.2%。货运载运率为42.1%，同比上升3.3个百分点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines (601111) (00753) reported an increase in passenger turnover volume and capacity for August 2025, indicating a positive trend in both domestic and international operations [1] Group 1: Passenger Operations - The group's passenger turnover volume (measured in revenue passenger kilometers) increased by 3.2% year-on-year [1] - Passenger capacity (measured in available seat kilometers) rose by 2.3% year-on-year [1] - Domestic passenger capacity decreased by 1.2%, while passenger turnover remained flat [1] - International passenger capacity increased by 12.6%, with passenger turnover rising by 12.9% [1] - Regional passenger capacity fell by 5.7%, and passenger turnover decreased by 2.2% [1] - The average passenger load factor was 83.7%, up by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Domestic routes saw a load factor increase of 1.1 percentage points, international routes increased by 0.2 percentage points, and regional routes rose by 2.9 percentage points [1] Group 2: Cargo Operations - Cargo capacity (measured in available cargo ton kilometers) increased by 1.5% year-on-year [1] - Cargo and mail turnover (measured in revenue cargo ton kilometers) rose by 10.2% year-on-year [1] - The cargo load factor was 42.1%, up by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 3: Fleet Expansion - In August 2025, the group introduced 3 A320 series aircraft and 3 B737 series aircraft [1] - As of the end of August 2025, the group operated a total of 941 aircraft, including 419 owned, 228 under finance leases, and 294 under operating leases [1]