证券研究报告 兴业银行 (601166 CH) 沈娟 研究员 SAC No. S0570514040002 SFC No. BPN843 贺雅亭 研究员 heyating@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 蒲葭依 研究员 SAC No. S0570525090001 SFC No. BVL774 中收增速改善支撑业绩韧性 2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地 全国性股份制银行 目标价(人民币): 27.08 李润凌* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525100006 lirunling@htsc.com 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 10 月 30 日) | 20.03 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 423,892 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 1,686 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 17.76-25.14 | 股价走势图 (8) 5 18 31 44 Oct-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 (%) 兴业银行 沪深300 资料来源：Wind 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (人民币) | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 27.46 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company's revenue showed a slight decline of 1.82% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, an improvement from a 2.29% decline in the first half of the year. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.12% year-on-year, continuing the positive growth trend observed in the first half [2][9]. - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.08% as of the end of Q3 2025, unchanged from mid-year, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 227.81% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The total operating revenue for the first three quarters was 161.23 billion CNY, with a net profit of 63.08 billion CNY. The net interest income saw a minor decline of 0.56%, but there was a positive growth of 1.38% in Q3 alone [2][9]. - **Loan Growth**: Total loans increased by 4.42% year-to-date, with corporate loans growing by 7.54%. The bank is focusing on supporting key sectors such as green loans and technology loans, which grew significantly [2]. - **Cost Management**: The bank has effectively controlled costs, with provisions for asset impairment losses decreasing by 11.30% year-on-year, supporting profit performance [2]. - **Asset Quality**: The overall asset quality remains stable, with a slight improvement in forward-looking indicators. The proportion of special mention loans decreased to 1.67% [2][9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued improvement in the company's fundamentals, with expected net profit growth rates of 0.7%, 1.98%, and 3.29% for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.51X, which is below the historical average of 0.71X, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2][9].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the news is the financial performance of Industrial Bank Co., Ltd. for the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting a slight decline in revenue but a modest increase in net profit compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the bank achieved operating income of 161.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%, with the decline narrowing by 0.47 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.08 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.12% [1] - Net interest income stood at 110.96 billion yuan, down 0.56% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.96 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - Net fee and commission income increased by 3.79% year-on-year to 20.08 billion yuan, with the growth rate expanding by 1.20 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - Other non-interest income was 30.19 billion yuan, impacted by market interest rate fluctuations, showing a year-on-year decline of 9.28% [1] Asset Quality - As of the end of the third quarter, the bank's non-performing loan balance was 64.56 billion yuan, an increase of 3.08 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous year [2] - The non-performing loan ratio was 1.08%, up 0.01 percentage points from the end of the previous year [2] - The ratio of special mention loans was 1.67%, down 0.04 percentage points from the end of the previous year [2] Loan and Deposit Growth - Total assets reached 10.67 trillion yuan, growing by 1.57% compared to the end of the previous year [1] - Customer loan balance was 5.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42% from the end of the previous year [1] - Customer deposit balance was 5.83 trillion yuan, up 5.47% compared to the end of the previous year [1] - The interest rate on deposits was 1.71%, down 32 basis points year-on-year and down 5 basis points from the end of the first half [1]

Core Viewpoint - Industrial Bank reported its Q3 earnings, revealing a continued decline in revenue but with a narrowing rate of decrease, alongside a proposed cash dividend distribution for 2025 [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Industrial Bank achieved operating revenue of 161.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.47 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2]. - Net interest income fell by 0.56% year-on-year, while net fee and commission income increased by 3.79% [2]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 63.08 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.12% year-on-year [3]. Deposit and Loan Growth - Total deposits amounted to 5.83 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.47% since the beginning of the year, with the interest rate on deposits decreasing by 32 basis points year-on-year to 1.71% [3]. - Total loans reached 5.99 trillion yuan, up 4.42% year-to-date, with corporate loans increasing by 7.54% and personal loans decreasing by 2.49% [3]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan balance stood at 64.56 billion yuan, an increase of 30.83 billion yuan from the end of the previous year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08% [4]. - The bank reported a decrease in new non-performing assets and a lower non-performing asset generation rate compared to the previous year [4][5]. Shareholder Activity - Significant shareholder activity was noted, with major shareholders increasing their stakes in Industrial Bank, including the Fujian Provincial Finance Department and other entities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The net interest margin of Industrial Bank continues to decline, with a focus on maintaining stable interest income and managing asset quality amid a challenging operating environment [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Industrial Bank reported operating revenue of 161.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%, with the decline narrowing compared to the first half of the year [1]. - Net interest income fell by 0.56% year-on-year, while net fee and commission income increased by 3.79% [1][2]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 63.08 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.12% year-on-year [2]. Deposit and Loan Trends - Total deposits amounted to 5.83 trillion yuan, growing by 5.47% since the beginning of the year, with an interest rate of 1.71%, down 5 basis points from the first half [2]. - Total loans reached 5.99 trillion yuan, up 4.42% year-to-date, with corporate loans increasing by 7.54% and personal loans decreasing by 2.49% [2]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan balance was 64.56 billion yuan, an increase of 3.08 billion yuan from the end of the previous year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08% [3]. - The bank reported a decrease in new non-performing assets and a lower generation rate compared to the previous year, indicating improved risk management [3][4]. Shareholder Activity - Significant shareholder activity has been noted, with major shareholders increasing their stakes in Industrial Bank, including the Fujian Provincial Finance Department and others [4].

Core Viewpoint - Financial institutions in Tianjin are enhancing financial services for the elderly during the "Respect for the Elderly Month" in October 2025, focusing on creating a more accessible and warm financial service environment [1][3] Group 1: Service Enhancements - Multiple financial institutions are implementing accessibility improvements, including optimizing branch facilities and service processes to better serve the elderly [1] - Specific features include barrier-free parking, wheelchair ramps, caring waiting areas, and priority service systems for elderly customers [1][3] - Self-service devices are equipped with "large font" modes to facilitate use by older clients [1] Group 2: Community Engagement - Banks are extending their services to outdoor workers, such as sanitation workers and delivery personnel, by providing amenities like drinking water and rest areas [3] - The initiative aims to spread the warmth of financial services to various segments of society [3] Group 3: Commitment to Continuous Improvement - Financial institutions in Tianjin are committed to ongoing service optimization, aiming to address the concerns of elderly clients and enhance their banking experience [3] - The focus is on creating a safe and convenient financial service environment to support a fulfilling later life for the elderly [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Xiamen branch of Industrial Bank is committed to providing personalized and efficient payroll services, enhancing the experience for both enterprises and employees through innovative solutions and dedicated support [1][5]. Group 1: Service Approach - The payroll service team at the Xiamen branch has demonstrated a proactive approach by directly assisting workers at sea to open payroll accounts, showcasing their commitment to customer service [2]. - The team is known for its rapid response and on-site services, ensuring that all payroll-related needs are met promptly, often within an hour [2]. Group 2: Service Enrichment - The service offerings have expanded beyond basic payroll processing to include wealth management, financing support, and various consumer benefits tailored to different industries [3]. - Customized payroll card options have been developed, providing various fee waivers and additional financial services, such as specialized loans for technology companies [3]. Group 3: Technological Empowerment - The introduction of the "Xingye Tong Payroll System" enhances service efficiency by offering digital solutions for payroll management, including online card opening and customizable electronic payslips [4]. - The system also supports cross-border payroll services, catering to both domestic and foreign employees, thereby addressing the needs of multinational companies [4]. Group 4: Commitment to Quality - The leadership of the payroll service team emphasizes a continuous commitment to innovation and flexibility in service delivery to meet the diverse needs of enterprises and employees [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has led banks to increase the investment threshold for gold accumulation services, with some institutions adjusting the minimum investment amount to fluctuate with gold prices, enhancing market responsiveness and risk management [1][2][8]. Group 1: Market Adjustments - Banks like the Bank of Communications and Agricultural Bank of China are shifting their gold accumulation plans to a model where the minimum investment amount is tied to real-time gold prices, requiring that the investment amount be greater than or equal to the current gold price [2][3]. - The new model allows for dynamic adjustments to the investment threshold, addressing the lag in pricing that occurs with traditional fixed-amount models [4][5]. Group 2: Characteristics of the New Model - The "floating with gold prices" model is characterized by three main features: dynamism, flexibility, and risk diversification, allowing for real-time adjustments to the investment threshold based on market fluctuations [4][5]. - The model also maintains a flexible trading unit, accommodating both small investors and risk management, which helps reduce operational complexity and liquidity management pressures for banks [4][5]. Group 3: Future Market Environment - The gold accumulation business is expected to face a more complex market environment, with increased volatility driven by international political situations, economic data, and dollar movements [8][9]. - Investor demand is anticipated to become more differentiated, with a growing emphasis on the long-term value of gold as a hedge against inflation, while short-term speculative behaviors may lead to losses due to price fluctuations [8][9]. Group 4: Regulatory and Competitive Landscape - Regulatory bodies and banks are focusing on risk prevention, with dynamic adjustments to investment thresholds and improved redemption rules to protect investor interests [9]. - Increased competition may drive product innovation, with some banks exploring mechanisms to enhance attractiveness, potentially integrating digital tools to improve transaction efficiency and transparency [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][10] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 161.2 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [5][10] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.08% for the third quarter of 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 228% [5][10] - The report highlights a clear path of "solidifying customer base - reducing liability costs - optimizing credit structure," which has been validated through consistent performance [7][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to be 210.8 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight increase to 212.2 billion yuan in 2024 and 212.5 billion yuan in 2025 [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 77.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 78.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 1.7% [6] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in net interest income, with a forecasted net interest margin of 1.56% for 2025 [7][10] Performance Analysis - The company has seen a reduction in credit costs, contributing positively to profit stability, with a credit cost of 0.19% in the third quarter of 2025 [10] - The report notes that the company's dividend payout ratio is expected to remain above 30%, with a potential distribution in early next year [7][10] - The company has successfully increased its corporate client base by nearly 9% year-on-year, driving an 8% growth in corporate loans [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - Recently, Industrial Bank's Urumqi branch successfully introduced RMB 30 million equivalent of foreign funds for a "specialized and innovative" high-tech enterprise in Xinjiang through an internal guarantee direct loan business, effectively broadening the enterprise's financing channels and reducing financing costs [1] Group 1: Financing Innovation - The internal guarantee direct loan business is designed to address the funding needs of enterprises during the raw material procurement phase [1] - The Urumqi branch led the design of a comprehensive cross-border financing scheme combining "internal guarantee direct loan + currency swap" [1] - This scheme leverages the advantages of the foreign funding market to help enterprises obtain funds at a lower cost [1] Group 2: Risk Management - The currency swap tool is utilized to convert floating rate debt into fixed rate debt, allowing enterprises to lock in financing costs in advance and effectively mitigate exchange rate fluctuation risks [1] - The Urumqi branch provided full assistance to the enterprise in completing foreign debt registration and compliance processes, ensuring smooth business implementation [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The internal guarantee direct loan, as an innovative cross-border financing model, helps alleviate the issues of limited financing channels and high costs for domestic enterprises [1] - The Urumqi branch will continue to implement the central financial work conference spirit, deepening financial support for high-tech industries and "specialized and innovative" enterprises [1] - The focus will be on enhancing the quality and efficiency of cross-border financial services to support high-quality local economic development through high-level opening up [1]