Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved an operating income of 161.2 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 63.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.8% and 0.1% respectively [4][5]. - The report highlights a narrowing decline in revenue and a slight positive growth in profit, with net interest income and non-interest income showing year-on-year growth rates of -0.6% and -4.5% respectively [5][8]. - The bank's asset expansion is steady, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.7% in interest-earning assets and 4.3% in loans as of the end of Q3 2025 [6][10]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains low at 1.08%, indicating strong risk compensation capabilities [10][30]. - The report emphasizes the bank's strategic focus on digital transformation and the development of five new business tracks, aiming for a more efficient and sustainable growth model [12][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 161.2 billion, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 63.1 billion, an increase of 0.1% year-on-year [4][5]. - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROAE) for the first three quarters of 2025 was 10.07%, down 0.85 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. Asset and Liability Management - As of Q3 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 4.7% and 4.3% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a slight acceleration in asset expansion [6][10]. - The bank's deposits increased steadily, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.6% in deposits as of Q3 2025 [7][10]. Profitability and Efficiency - The net interest margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.72%, with a narrowing decline compared to previous periods [8][12]. - Non-interest income decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, contributing to a decline in its proportion of total revenue [9][12]. Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio was reported at 1.08%, with a stable asset quality performance [10][30]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was 227.8%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [10][30]. Capital Adequacy - As of Q3 2025, the bank's core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 9.66%, reflecting a solid capital position [11][30]. - The report notes that the bank has a significant amount of convertible bonds that have not yet been converted, suggesting potential for future capital enhancement [11][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 161.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.1 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.12% year-on-year [5] - The asset structure continues to optimize, with strong performance in corporate loans, and the net interest margin decline has narrowed, indicating stable asset quality and robust risk control capabilities [5] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 210.8 billion yuan, 215.4 billion yuan, and 222.8 billion yuan, with corresponding net profit predictions of 77.5 billion yuan, 79.0 billion yuan, and 81.5 billion yuan [5][7] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 161.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.82% year-on-year, with the decline rate narrowing compared to the first half of 2025 [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.12% [5] Asset Structure - As of the end of Q3 2025, total assets reached 10.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.57% from the end of 2024, with total loans amounting to 5.99 trillion yuan, up 4.42% [5] - Corporate loans accounted for 3.70 trillion yuan, growing by 7.54% [5] Profitability Metrics - The net interest margin stood at 1.72%, with a slight decline of 3 basis points from the end of the first half of 2025, but the rate of decline has slowed [5] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.08%, and the provision coverage ratio was 227.81% [5] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 210.8 billion yuan, 215.4 billion yuan, and 222.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 77.5 billion yuan, 79.0 billion yuan, and 81.5 billion yuan [5][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 3.53 yuan, 3.60 yuan, and 3.72 yuan for the same years [7]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and strategic adjustments of Industrial Bank in the third quarter of 2025, highlighting revenue, profit, asset quality, and loan dynamics. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Industrial Bank achieved revenue of 161.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%, with the decline narrowing by 0.47 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.08 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.12% year-on-year [1] - The net interest margin stood at 1.72%, down 10 basis points from 2024, aligning with initial expectations [1] Loan Dynamics - As of the end of September, total loans increased by 253.3 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, with corporate loans rising by 259.4 billion yuan, achieving 87% of the annual target [2] - Personal loans decreased by 49.6 billion yuan, primarily due to changes in economic conditions and market demand, leading to a strategic shift to prioritize quality over growth [2] - The introduction of a personal consumption loan subsidy policy on September 1 positively impacted individual loan issuance, with a 5.07% month-on-month increase in September [2] Asset Quality - As of September 30, the non-performing loan balance was 64.56 billion yuan, an increase of 3.08 billion yuan from the end of the previous year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08% [3] - The bank's chief risk officer indicated a significant decrease in newly generated non-performing assets compared to the same period last year, with a lower non-performing asset generation rate [3] - The bank expects a decrease in new non-performing loans for the year compared to the previous year, maintaining stable asset quality [3] Non-Interest Income - The bank's net fee and commission income grew by 3.79% year-on-year to 20.08 billion yuan, with an acceleration in wealth management service income [4] - Credit card income showed a reduced decline compared to the first half of the year, indicating improved performance in this segment [4] - Other non-interest income decreased by 9.28% year-on-year to 30.19 billion yuan, influenced by fluctuations in bond rates, but remained competitive within the industry [5] Market Trends - There has been an increase in customer allocation towards equity products, with a notable rise in the penetration of equity-linked products among high-net-worth clients [5] - The bank observed a significant increase in the activity of third-party custody clients, with monthly average sign-ups doubling compared to the first half of the year [5] - The overall market conditions remain favorable for the bond market, although there are concerns about the impact of a strong stock market on bond valuations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on "stabilizing scale and optimizing structure" to address challenges such as "deposit migration" and narrowing interest margins, while also seizing opportunities in the capital market to boost income from wealth management and custody services [1][2]. Deposit Management - As of the end of September, the total deposit scale of the company reached 5.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 302.4 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [2]. - The interest rate on deposits for the first three quarters was 1.71%, down 5 basis points from the first half of the year [2]. - The company plans to stabilize deposit scale by controlling the growth of high-cost deposits and enhancing customer engagement to increase low-cost transaction deposits [2]. Interest Income and Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for the first three quarters was 1.72%, a decrease of 10 basis points compared to the same period in 2024 [3]. - The interest income for the first three quarters was 1,109.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 0.56%, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.96 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3]. Non-Interest Income Growth - The company achieved net fee and commission income of 200.81 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 3.79% [4]. - Wealth management sales revenue reached 4.2 billion yuan, growing by 7.7% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in the capital market [4]. - Credit card income saw a reduced decline, with a total of 6.7 billion yuan in intermediary income, benefiting from integrated customer acquisition strategies [4]. Risk Management - As of the end of September, the non-performing loan balance was 645.60 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08%, reflecting a slight increase from the end of the previous year [7]. - The company reported a significant reduction in new non-performing assets in key areas such as real estate and credit cards, indicating improved risk management [8]. - The company expects a decrease in new non-performing loans for the year, maintaining a stable and controllable asset quality [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the successful issuance of a three-year technology innovation bond by North China Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., led by the Shijiazhuang branch of Industrial Bank, with a total issuance scale of 500 million yuan [1] - This bond issuance marks the first technology innovation bond in the pharmaceutical industry of Hebei Province, setting a historical low for the interest rate of similar products in the region [1] - The funds raised will provide strong financial support for the company's key technological innovation areas, accelerating the transformation and implementation of innovative results [1] Group 2 - As of September 2025, the Shijiazhuang branch of Industrial Bank has provided over 20 billion yuan in financing support to enterprises in Hebei through investment banking services [2] - The branch has served 15 technology-based enterprises through various services, including non-financial bond underwriting, merger loans, and syndicate loans [2] - The bank plans to deepen its "commercial bank + investment bank" strategy, focusing on the full-cycle needs of technology innovation enterprises and leveraging specialized products like technology innovation bonds to inject stable financial momentum into these companies [2]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" signals increased reform and innovation, suggesting medium-term upward momentum in the market, despite short-term liquidity concerns at year-end[3] - Focus on sectors aligned with the "14th Five-Year" industrial guidance and Q3 performance, particularly technology growth (AI, semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals) and advanced manufacturing (new energy)[3] Group 2: Recommended Stocks - Dongcheng Pharmaceutical (002675.SZ) has a market cap of 12.2 billion CNY, with a TTM PE of 73.3, driven by ongoing innovation and clinical trials[4] - Zhongwei Company (688012.SH) leads in high-end semiconductor equipment with a market cap of 187.9 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 98.2, benefiting from increased product delivery[11] - Haiguang Information (688041.SH) has a market cap of 553.7 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 233.9, positioned well in the AI and domestic substitution trends[19] - Industrial Fulian (601138.SH) focuses on AI, with a market cap of 1548.3 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 50.7, showing strong revenue growth of 38.4% YoY[27] - Penghui Energy (300438.SZ) leads in small-scale energy storage with a market cap of 24.5 billion CNY, benefiting from rising demand and price improvements[35] - Jinfeng Technology (002202.SZ) has a market cap of 66.2 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 26.1, with improving margins in wind turbine manufacturing[42] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) has a market cap of 369.8 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 19.3, with copper prices expected to rise[50] - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) has a market cap of 40.6 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 13.5, with significant growth in overseas operations[57] - China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) has a market cap of 342.5 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 7.6, noted for its high dividend yield and resilient asset performance[64] - Shanghai Bank (601166.SH) has a market cap of 13.4 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 5.6, recognized for its stable asset quality and dividend value[73]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Industrial Bank reported a slight decline in operating income for the first three quarters of 2025, while net profit showed a modest increase, indicating a stabilization in performance compared to earlier periods [1][2] - Industrial Bank achieved operating income of 161.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%, with the decline narrowing by 0.47 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 63.08 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0% [1] Group 2 - The bank plans to implement a mid-term dividend for 2025, proposing a distribution of 5.65 yuan per 10 shares [1] - In personnel changes, the bank has seen a return of key executives to its wealth management subsidiary, with new appointments in the second half of the year [2] - The wealth management subsidiary, Xingyin Wealth Management, has increased its registered capital from 5 billion yuan to 10 billion yuan, making it the largest wealth management subsidiary among national joint-stock banks in terms of capital [2] Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, Xingyin Wealth Management managed products totaling 2.32 trillion yuan, maintaining the second position in the market [3] - The subsidiary's fixed income products accounted for 2.27 trillion yuan, while equity products and mixed products were significantly smaller at 67.32 billion yuan and 349.32 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Xingyin Wealth Management has been recognized for its comprehensive wealth management capabilities, ranking first among national wealth management institutions for thirty consecutive quarters [3] Group 4 - Industrial Bank has been actively recruiting financial technology talent, with recent appointments from major financial institutions to enhance its technological capabilities [4] - The bank's investment in information technology reached 8.38 billion yuan in 2024, representing 3.95% of its operating income [4] - As of the end of 2024, the bank employed 7,840 technology personnel, making up 13.51% of its total workforce, the highest proportion among its peers [4]

Market Overview - On October 31, the share price of the banking sector fell by 0.73% compared to the previous trading day, with Everbright Bank leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [1] Individual Bank Performance - Industrial Bank (601166) saw a closing price of 20.23, with an increase of 1.00% and a trading volume of 887,900 shares, totaling 1.793 billion yuan [1] - Huaxia Bank (600015) remained unchanged at 6.81, with a trading volume of 670,600 shares, totaling 45.6 million yuan [1] - Ping An Bank (000001) closed at 11.32, down 0.53%, with a trading volume of 970,200 shares, totaling 1.099 billion yuan [1] - China Merchants Bank (600036) closed at 40.89, down 0.75%, with a trading volume of 702,600 shares, totaling 2.882 billion yuan [1] - Zheshang Bank (601916) closed at 2.99, down 0.99%, with a trading volume of 1.6683 million shares, totaling 501 million yuan [1] - Minsheng Bank (600016) closed at 3.91, down 1.01%, with a trading volume of 4.6781 million shares, totaling 1.834 billion yuan [1] - CITIC Bank (601998) closed at 7.74, down 1.28%, with a trading volume of 915,000 shares, totaling 705 million yuan [1] - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000) closed at 11.49, down 1.29%, with a trading volume of 1.4353 million shares, totaling 1.658 billion yuan [1] - Everbright Bank (601818) closed at 3.34, down 3.19%, with a trading volume of 5.9154 million shares, totaling 1.987 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The banking sector experienced a net outflow of 381 million yuan from main funds, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 433 million yuan, and retail investors had a net outflow of 51.53 million yuan [1] - Specific capital flows for individual banks indicate varying trends, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank experiencing a main fund net inflow of 241 million yuan but a net outflow from retail investors of 181 million yuan [2] - Industrial Bank had a main fund net inflow of 56.7 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 48.09 million yuan [2] - CITIC Bank recorded a main fund net inflow of 30.28 million yuan, with a net outflow from retail investors of 47.03 million yuan [2] - Everbright Bank faced a significant main fund net outflow of 65.63 million yuan, despite a net inflow from speculative funds of 111 million yuan [2] - China Merchants Bank had a substantial main fund net outflow of 2.71 billion yuan, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 3.15 billion yuan [2] - Minsheng Bank experienced a main fund net outflow of 3.17 billion yuan, with a net inflow from retail investors of 2.37 billion yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 26.01 CNY over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue decline has continued to narrow, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.82% in Q3 2025, marking the third consecutive quarter of reduced revenue decline. The pre-provision profit decreased by 2.56% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.12% year-on-year [1]. - The bank's asset scale grew by 3.55% year-on-year, with a quarterly increase of 589 billion CNY, driven by a recovery in corporate credit issuance. However, the net interest margin has contracted, and non-interest income has declined, impacting overall performance [1][2]. - The bank's credit quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08% and a provision coverage ratio of 228.54% as of Q3 2025 [8][9]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to grow by 0.54%, with a profit growth rate of 1.91%. The net interest margin for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 1.72%, showing a year-on-year contraction of 12 basis points [9][17]. - Non-interest income has shown a mixed performance, with net fee income increasing by 6.12% year-on-year, while other non-interest income decreased by 16.63% [8]. Asset and Liability Management - As of Q3 2025, the total assets of the bank increased by 3.55% year-on-year, with significant growth in corporate loans, which rose by 7.84% year-on-year [2][3]. - The total liabilities increased by 3.64% year-on-year, with a notable rise in interbank liabilities, which grew by 9.55% year-on-year [3]. Credit Quality and Risk Management - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08% and a focus on managing risks in key areas such as credit cards and corporate real estate [9][10]. - The provision coverage ratio stands at 228.54%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [8][9].

证券研究报告 兴业银行 (601166 CH) 沈娟 研究员 SAC No. S0570514040002 SFC No. BPN843 贺雅亭 研究员 heyating@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 蒲葭依 研究员 SAC No. S0570525090001 SFC No. BVL774 中收增速改善支撑业绩韧性 2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地 全国性股份制银行 目标价(人民币): 27.08 李润凌* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525100006 lirunling@htsc.com 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 10 月 30 日) | 20.03 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 423,892 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 1,686 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 17.76-25.14 | 股价走势图 (8) 5 18 31 44 Oct-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 (%) 兴业银行 沪深300 资料来源：Wind 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (人民币) | ...