Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Cathay Pacific Haitong maintains a "buy" rating for Modern Dairy (01117), expecting EPS of 0.05 and 0.19 HKD per share for 2026 and 2027 respectively, benefiting from the reversal of the meat and milk cycle [1] - The company is progressing with the acquisition of China Shengmu, having signed an irrevocable voting proxy agreement on October 30, and plans to acquire 1.28% of shares for 37.52 million HKD, which will trigger a mandatory general offer [2] - The acquisition will integrate upstream resources from the major shareholder Mengniu, enhancing scale effects, with the total herd size expected to exceed 610,000 heads and raw milk production to surpass 4 million tons [3] Group 2 - The dairy cow inventory is accelerating its reduction due to ongoing financial pressures and a decrease in heifer restocking, with the impact expected to manifest monthly [4] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced preliminary rulings on anti-subsidy investigations against dairy products from the EU, imposing temporary anti-subsidy tax guarantees starting December 23, which is expected to accelerate domestic substitution in the dairy processing industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities has initiated coverage on CloudWalk Technology, assigning a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 451.33, highlighting the vast potential for AI application deployment in the market [1] Company Summary - CloudWalk Technology is recognized as a veteran player in the AI voice sector, with significant growth prospects in AI applications [1] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 1.268 billion, RMB 1.943 billion, and RMB 2.659 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35%, 53%, and 37% [1] Industry Summary - According to Frost & Sullivan, the market size for AI solutions in China is expected to reach RMB 180.4 billion in 2024, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.7%, and is projected to grow to RMB 1,174.9 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 36.7% [1] - The recent launch of the "Shanhai Zhi Medical Model 5.0" by CloudWalk Technology represents a significant advancement in the medical AI field, featuring a dual-core product system that integrates medical text processing and multi-modal capabilities, making it one of the most comprehensive medical AI technology support systems in the industry [1]

Group 1 - The Heilongjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau issued a warning letter to Guotai Junan Heilongjiang Branch due to multiple violations in brokerage and investment banking operations this year [1] - The violations include employees engaging in unauthorized securities trading, improper handling of client accounts, and inadequate employee management [1] - The regulatory measures were taken under the Compliance Management Measures for Securities Companies and Securities Investment Fund Management Companies [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan's Heilongjiang Branch received another regulatory penalty this month from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for issues related to independent financial advisory services [2] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange criticized Guotai Junan for failing to adequately verify the revenue recognition of the target company during the asset restructuring process [2] - Two project sponsors, Zhu Kaikai and Lin Zipeng, were also reprimanded for their roles in the project [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the securities sector, indicating an expected increase in the industry exceeding the market by more than 15% in the next 3-6 months [42]. Core Insights - The establishment of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund aims to inject long-term capital into technological innovation, potentially mobilizing trillions in social capital and creating a multi-layered venture capital ecosystem [38][39]. - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a high demand for long-term care insurance, transitioning from pilot programs to a comprehensive system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [36]. - The report highlights that listed securities firms have exceeded earnings expectations in Q3, with a projected high profit growth for the year, despite a current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.4, indicating a significant mismatch with performance [2]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been officially launched, with a 20-year duration (10 years for investment and 10 years for exit), which is significantly longer than typical equity funds, alleviating short-term exit pressures for managers [38]. - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: 1. Strongly recommend quality securities firms with valuation mismatches, particularly Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities [2]. 2. Highlighting Sichuan Shuangma's advantageous position in the technology sector and its venture capital business benefiting from gene therapy investments [2]. 3. Noting the impressive growth of diversified financial firms, suggesting attention to Jiufang Zhizhong Holdings, Yixin Group, and Far East Horizon [2]. Insurance Sector - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced new tax regulations for insurance contracts, which are expected to have no significant impact on the current profits and net assets of listed insurance companies [3]. - The report anticipates that the high prosperity of the liability side will drive a valuation switch in insurance stocks, with expectations of continued growth in the insurance sector due to strong demand for savings and pension products [4]. - The insurance sector's premium income for the first 11 months of 2025 reached CNY 57,629 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.6%, indicating a recovery in premium income [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to follow the overall commodity market sentiment, with prices likely to experience a rapid upward movement followed by high - level consolidation in the short term. As domestic production areas enter the off - season, overseas high - yield periods continue, and port inventories may continue to accumulate, providing short - term support to the market. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation level and downstream holiday arrangements [107]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber reached 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and exports to China totaled 2.518 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24%. In November 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, and consumption was expected to decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons. In November 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 887,491 units [5][6][7]. Price Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber prices increased significantly, with Singapore TSR20 rubber having the largest increase. On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 15,780 yuan/ton, 12,820 yuan/ton, 180.50 cents/kg, and 339.50 yen/kg respectively, with month - on - month increases of 3.88%, 3.47%, 3.91%, and 2.35% [10][12]. Basis and Calendar Spread - On December 26, 2025, the basis of whole milk - RU05 was - 480 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 41.18% and a year - on - year increase of 40.37%. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was 30 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50.00% and a year - on - year increase of 117.65% [13]. Other Spreads - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased, while the spread of NR - SGX TSR20 decreased. The spreads of non - standard basis and light - dark color also changed. The price of substitute synthetic rubber increased due to factors such as cost support and macro expectations [19][24][27]. Fundamental Data Supply - Weather: The rainy season in southern Thailand is approaching its end, and the rainfall is decreasing; the rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed, and the temperature is relatively low. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [43][45]. - Raw Material Prices: As the Hainan production area gradually stops tapping, the enthusiasm of factories to purchase rubber has significantly cooled. The high - yield period of overseas rubber tapping exerts pressure on supply, and Thai raw material prices are weak [47]. - Raw Material Spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand has narrowed. The spread between the price of Hainan rubber latex entering the concentrated latex factory and that entering the whole - milk factory has also narrowed, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping [51]. - Upstream Processing Profits: The rubber processing profits in Thailand have generally recovered [54]. - Delivery Profits: The delivery profit in Hainan has recovered, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping, so data updates have been suspended [57]. - Exports: In November, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in latex exports. In October, Indonesia's natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, and exports to China rebounded seasonally. In November, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and exports to China decreased significantly [64][70][76]. - Imports: In November, China imported 643,600 tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber), a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [82]. Demand - Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory: During the period, the capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises fluctuated. The inventory of tires continued to accumulate [85]. - Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales: In November, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month, and the growth rate accelerated. Passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline. Tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month [88]. - Road Transport Turnover: In November, the freight turnover on roads rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [92]. Inventory - Spot Inventory: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate seasonally, with a larger increase in dark - colored rubber inventory than in light - colored rubber inventory [98]. - Futures Inventory: As of December 26, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 93,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.77% [104]. This Week's View Summary - Supply: The Hainan production area is gradually stopping tapping, and overseas high - yield periods continue to put pressure on supply. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [107]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises fluctuated, with semi - steel tires having a slight increase and all - steel tires being dragged down by maintenance [107]. - View: The natural rubber market is expected to experience high - level consolidation after a rapid upward movement. Pay attention to inventory accumulation and downstream holiday arrangements [107]. - Valuation: The spread between the main contracts of RU and NR narrowed, while the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU widened [107]. - Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see or short - on - rallies approach for RU; gradually increase long - cash - short - futures positions and pay attention to capital inflows in the market; observe cross - variety spreads [107].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [4] Core Viewpoints - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities has created a new industry giant, with total assets exceeding 2.01 trillion yuan and net assets reaching 338.9 billion yuan, both ranking first in the industry [1][9] - The company has demonstrated significant financial performance, with a 101.6% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 131.8% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [2][15] - The company is focusing on deep collaboration in core businesses, leveraging its comprehensive financial service system to enhance competitive advantages [3] Company Overview - Guotai Haitong Securities was formed by the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities in April 2025, becoming the largest A+H dual-market brokerage in China's capital market [9] - The company's ownership structure is characterized by state-owned capital dominance, with significant participation from institutional investors, ensuring stable strategic execution [10] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 458.92 billion yuan and a net profit of 220.74 billion yuan, driven by increased market activity and cost synergies [2][15] - The annualized ROE reached 8.10% by the third quarter of 2025, surpassing the industry average [2][15] Business Segments - The company has a comprehensive business layout, including securities brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and wealth management, providing a full range of financial services [16] - The asset management segment, formed by merging the asset management arms of both companies, has reached a management scale of 705.19 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry [57] Investment Banking - The investment banking business has strengthened resource integration and focused on cross-border operations, achieving a domestic securities underwriting amount of 708.18 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, ranking second in the industry [63] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of 36.0%, 12.4%, and 11.4% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 95.0%, -3.4%, and 12.1% respectively [71][72] - The current PB valuation is approximately 1.12 times, indicating a potential for valuation to align with industry averages due to the company's strong business and capital position [7][73]

Electronic and 2025 年 12 月 28 日 看好 相关研究 《保险公司资产负债管理即将迈入全新阶 -非银金融行业周报 (2025/12/15- EG --- 2025/12/19)》 2025/12/21 《头部非银机构监管红利有望释放 -- 非 银金融行业周报 (2025/12/8- 2025/12/12)》 2025/12/14 《券商板块信心提振，补涨逻辑有望逐步 兑现 -- 非银金融行业周报 (2025/12/1- 2025/12/5)》 2025/12/07 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 两端改善趋势 ——2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略:权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容,国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjg@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh ...

Group 1 - The Chinese stock market is expected to cross and stabilize at important levels, with a "transformation bull" market anticipated to peak again by 2026. Emerging technology is identified as the main focus, while cyclical consumption is viewed as a transformation opportunity, and large financial institutions are expected to perform well [3][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4000 points on October 28, marking a 10-year high, which supports the strategic judgment made by Guotai Junan for 2025. The market is expected to see a year-end rally starting in December [4][11] - Since 2025, the Chinese capital market has begun to consolidate social confidence and capital, entering a period of significant development. The macro policy shift in September 2024 alleviated internal concerns, while improved national strength and governance have allowed for better handling of external trade tensions [5][12] Group 2 - The breaking of the "guaranteed return" phenomenon in China has led to a systemic decline in risk-free returns, with an influx of new capital into the market still ongoing. The long-term interest rates in China are expected to drop below 2% in the second half of 2024, and the demand for asset management is projected to surge as the maturity peak of fixed deposits approaches in 2026 [6][12] - Capital market reforms have enhanced the investability of Chinese assets and improved market resilience to risks, transitioning the stock market from volatility to stability. Recent regulatory changes have encouraged capital inflow into the market [13] - The transformation of China's industrial structure is reducing uncertainty in economic and social development, providing clearer investment signals. Traditional industries are stabilizing, while new technology sectors are entering an expansion phase, indicating a favorable environment for investment [7][13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum is following the upward trend of copper, but its price elasticity is limited by weak spot fundamentals. The price may experience a "dip" due to the decline in photovoltaic enterprise production, but the downside is limited if the risk appetite of traditional non - ferrous sectors remains strong in Q1 [3]. - Alumina once hit the daily limit on Friday due to the policy guidance. However, the market turnaround depends on significant supply - side clearance and re - balance of supply and demand. The mid - term strategy is to find selling points during price rebounds [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Price and Market Performance - **Aluminum Price**: Aluminum is following the upward trend of traditional non - ferrous and precious metals, but the weak spot fundamentals limit its price elasticity. The short - term demand is weak, with significant inventory accumulation and expanding spot discounts [3]. - **Alumina Price**: Alumina once hit the daily limit on Friday due to policy guidance. The price is affected by supply - demand imbalance, short - position trading factors, and cost considerations. The price may fluctuate more at lower levels, and the mid - term view is to sell on rebounds [4]. - **Futures Data**: This week, the trading volume of most aluminum - related futures increased, and the positions showed differentiation. The price of most futures rose, and the inventory and price differences also changed [5]. 3.2 Trading - end Analysis - **Price Differences** - **Spot - Futures Price Differences**: This week, the spot premiums of both A00 aluminum and alumina weakened. For example, the average SMM A00 aluminum spot premium decreased from - 50 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton, and the Shandong alumina premium to the current month decreased from 156 yuan/ton to - 147 yuan/ton [10]. - **Monthly Price Differences**: The near - month price difference of Shanghai aluminum weakened [11]. - **Volume and Open Interest** - The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased slightly, while the trading volume increased slightly. - The open interest and trading volume of the alumina main contract increased significantly, and the open interest remained at a historical high [14]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum decreased, while that of alumina increased slightly and remained at a historically low level [19]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Bauxite**: As of December 26, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased, and the inventory days remained stable. In November, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises decreased. The Guinea port shipment volume decreased, while the Australian port shipment volume increased. The Guinea sea - floating inventory increased, and the Australian sea - floating inventory decreased [25][30][31]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory and the all - caliber inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The factory inventory, electrolytic aluminum plant inventory, and platform/in - transit inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased [45][52]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of December 25, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 51,000 tons to 612,000 tons this week [53]. - **Processed Products** - **Aluminum Rod**: This week, the spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods showed differentiation [59]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil**: In November, the inventory ratios of both raw materials and finished products of aluminum profiles and plate - foil increased slightly [62]. 3.4 Production Analysis - **Bauxite**: In November, the domestic bauxite supply was mainly stable, with a slight decline in SMM - caliber domestic production. The supply of imported bauxite was an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. By province, the production in some regions decreased, while in others it increased [67][68]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of December 26, the total operating capacity decreased by 300,000 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.838 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week. The supply - side surplus situation has not changed [72]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of November, the operating capacity remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate was high due to profit restoration. As of December 11, the weekly production was 856,700 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week. The aluminum - water ratio decreased seasonally [75]. - **Downstream Processing** - **Output**: This week, the output of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum plate - foil decreased [78]. - **开工率**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.7%. By sector, the operating rates of aluminum plate - strip, aluminum foil, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables decreased, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased [79][82][84]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - **Alumina**: In November, the alumina profit continued to decline slightly, and the smelting profit was under pressure. By province, the profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, while the profit in Guangxi was better [86]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors such as the complex global macro - economic situation and overseas geopolitical conflicts interfered with market expectations [99]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 20 yuan/ton this week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [100]. 3.6 Consumption Analysis - **Import and Export** - **Import**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have widened [109]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products increased slightly, but the export demand is affected by trade policy adjustments [111]. - **Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area is at a low level, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [114].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial industry [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery in the securities sector, with a projected increase in December performance driven by improved investment returns and a rise in equity financing [4][7] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from the clarification of income tax treatment under IFRS17, enhancing profit predictability for insurers [4][11] - The report emphasizes the growth of ETFs, which have surpassed 6 trillion yuan in total assets, indicating a strong trend in the investment landscape [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,657.24, with a weekly increase of 1.95%, while the non-bank index rose by 2.09% [7] - The securities, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported increases of 1.58%, 2.97%, and 2.66% respectively [7] Securities Industry Insights - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market for December is estimated at 1.84 trillion yuan, with a 5% decrease month-on-month [4] - The margin financing balance reached 2.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3% increase [4] - Equity financing in December totaled 508.4 billion yuan, a 72% increase from the previous month [4] Insurance Industry Insights - The report notes that the implementation of IFRS17 will standardize income tax calculations for insurers starting in 2026, which is expected to improve profit visibility [4][11] - The insurance sector index rose by 2.97%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.02 percentage points [4] Investment Recommendations - For the securities sector, the report recommends focusing on leading firms with strong competitive positions, such as Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities, as well as firms with significant earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities [4] - In the insurance sector, the report suggests investing in major players like China Life and Ping An, highlighting their systemic value re-evaluation opportunities [4]