证券研究报告·公司点评报告·基础建设 中国中铁（601390） 2024 年一季报点评：营收增速小幅承压，境 2024 年 05月 04日 外订单表现良好 证券分析师 黄诗涛 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 盈[T 利ab 预le_ 测EP 与S 估] 值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 证券分析师 房大磊 营业总收入（百万元） 1,154,358 1,263,475 1,357,771 1,468,668 1,581,310 执业证书：S0600522100001 fangdl@dwzq.com.cn 同比（%） 7.56 9.45 7.46 8.17 7.67 证券分析师 石峰源 归母净利润（百万元） 31,273 33,483 35,161 39,586 43,110 执业证书：S0600521120001 同比（%） 13.24 7.07 5.01 12.59 8.90 shify@dwzq.com.cn EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） 1.26 1.35 1.42 1.60 1.74 研究助理 杨晓曦 P/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Railway (601390.SH/00390.HK) with a target price of RMB 9.11 per share and HKD 5.18 per share respectively [4]. Core Views - China Railway reported a revenue of RMB 265 billion for Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. The gross margin was 8.73%, down by 0.35 percentage points. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.48 billion, a decline of 5.0% year-on-year [2]. - The infrastructure and design consulting segments showed slight revenue growth, while other segments faced temporary pressure. Specifically, infrastructure revenue was RMB 235.6 billion (up 0.37% YoY), design consulting revenue was RMB 4.78 billion (up 1.1% YoY), equipment manufacturing revenue was RMB 6.63 billion (down 8.8% YoY), real estate development revenue was RMB 4.18 billion (down 46.9% YoY), and resource utilization revenue was RMB 1.43 billion (down 27.1% YoY) [2]. - The company experienced a net cash outflow of RMB 68.1 billion, primarily due to concentrated payments for engineering, labor, and materials before the Spring Festival, along with delayed payments from project owners [2]. - New overseas contracts signed increased significantly, with a total of RMB 621.6 billion in new contracts, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, while overseas new contracts reached RMB 49.2 billion, an increase of 23% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights the potential for resource business flexibility due to rising mineral prices, with average prices for copper, nickel, and lead increasing by 12%, 9%, and 2% respectively in Q2 2024 compared to Q1 2024 [2]. - The company has set performance targets for stock incentives, aiming for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of non-recurring net profit of no less than 12% from 2022 to 2024, with a target of RMB 34.4 billion for 2024 [2]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for China Railway is expected to grow from RMB 1,263.5 billion in 2023 to RMB 1,753.2 billion by 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 11.3% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from RMB 33.5 billion in 2023 to RMB 45.7 billion by 2026, with a growth rate of 10.1% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from RMB 1.35 in 2023 to RMB 1.85 by 2026 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Railway Group Limited (601390.SH) [3] Core Views - Q1 2024 revenue decreased slightly by 2.6% year-on-year to 265 billion yuan, with net profit down 5% to 7.48 billion yuan, primarily due to slow infrastructure work and a significant contraction in the real estate sector [1] - The company expects a significant improvement in revenue and performance in Q2 2024, driven by the issuance of new special bonds amounting to 1,129.2 billion yuan, a 78% increase from Q1 [1] - The company has a robust backlog of contracts totaling 6.2 trillion yuan, which is five times its 2023 revenue, indicating strong future revenue potential [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue by segment: Infrastructure construction 235.6 billion yuan (+0.4%), Design consulting 4.8 billion yuan (+1%), Equipment manufacturing 6.6 billion yuan (-9%), Real estate development 4.2 billion yuan (-47%), Other businesses 14.4 billion yuan (-20%) [1] - The overall gross margin for Q1 2024 was 8.6%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1 2024 was a net outflow of 68.1 billion yuan, an increase in outflow of 30 billion yuan year-on-year [1] Future Projections - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: 37.53 billion yuan (2024), 40.78 billion yuan (2025), and 44.02 billion yuan (2026), with growth rates of 12%, 9%, and 8% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections: 1.52 yuan (2024), 1.65 yuan (2025), and 1.78 yuan (2026) [2] - Current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 4.5 (2024), 4.2 (2025), and 3.9 (2026) [2] Market Position - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 169.54 billion yuan, with a total share count of 24.75 billion shares [3] - The stock price as of April 29, 2024, was 6.85 yuan [3]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the first quarter was CNY 265,011,337, representing a decrease of 2.56% compared to the same period last year[3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 7,481,215, reflecting a decline of 5.04% year-on-year[3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 7,168,617, down by 3.30% compared to the previous year[3]. - The basic earnings per share for the quarter was CNY 0.289, a decrease of 5.25% from the same period last year[3]. - Total operating revenue for Q1 2024 was RMB 265,645,522, a decrease of 2.9% compared to RMB 272,624,669 in Q1 2023[27]. - Net profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 8,027,061, down 9.5% from RMB 8,866,464 in Q1 2023[28]. - Operating profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 9,810,137, a decline of 8.7% from RMB 10,750,951 in Q1 2023[27]. - Total comprehensive income for Q1 2024 was RMB 7,950,276, down from RMB 8,531,751 in Q1 2023[29]. - Basic earnings per share for Q1 2024 were RMB 0.289, a decrease from RMB 0.305 in Q1 2023[29]. - The total profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 1,169,088, an increase of 65.5% from RMB 706,508 in Q1 2023[35]. Assets and Liabilities - The total assets at the end of the reporting period were CNY 1,857,390,090, an increase of 1.53% from the previous year[3]. - The equity attributable to shareholders at the end of the reporting period was CNY 339,936,440, up by 2.23% year-on-year[3]. - The total assets of the company as of March 31, 2024, were 1,857.390 billion RMB, up from 1,829.439 billion RMB at the end of 2023[26]. - The total liabilities rose from 1,369.537 billion RMB to 1,386.445 billion RMB, indicating a growth of 1.2%[26]. - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 233,318,032 as of March 31, 2024, down from RMB 248,733,465 at the end of 2023, reflecting a reduction of 6.2%[33]. - The company's total equity increased slightly to RMB 252,935,307 as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 252,034,804 at the end of 2023[33]. - The company's long-term liabilities remained stable at RMB 48,013,342 as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 49,750,977 at the end of 2023[33]. Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities was CNY -68,065,449, indicating a significant cash outflow[3]. - In Q1 2024, the cash flow from operating activities was negative at RMB -68,065,449 thousand, compared to RMB -38,024,251 thousand in Q1 2023, indicating a decline in operational efficiency[30]. - Cash outflow from operating activities totaled CNY 12,830,532 thousand, resulting in a net cash flow from operating activities of -CNY 6,083,263 thousand, compared to -CNY 3,931,756 thousand in the same period last year[36]. - The company reported a net cash outflow of RMB -44,252,165 thousand in Q1 2024, compared to RMB -27,303,040 thousand in Q1 2023, indicating worsening cash flow management[31]. - Cash inflow from financing activities was CNY 15,000,000 thousand, a substantial increase from CNY 6,989,000 thousand in Q1 2023[36]. - Cash outflow from financing activities totaled CNY 26,058,684 thousand, compared to CNY 15,058,758 thousand in the previous year, leading to a net cash flow from financing activities of -CNY 11,058,684 thousand[36]. Business Segments - The company achieved a new contract amount of RMB 621.64 billion in Q1 2024, a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year[17]. - Domestic business new contracts amounted to RMB 572.41 billion, down 8.8% year-on-year, while overseas contracts increased by 23% to RMB 49.23 billion[18]. - The company reported a significant decline in the real estate sector, with new residential sales area down 19.4% and sales amount down 27.6%[16]. - The new signed contracts in the emerging business sector increased by 53.9% year-on-year, indicating growth potential[18]. - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a decline of 10.7% in new contracts compared to the same period last year[18]. - The company’s financial trade business reported a 4.8% increase in new contracts year-on-year[18]. Investment and Expenses - Research and development expenses for Q1 2024 were RMB 3,468,051, a decrease of 9.6% compared to RMB 3,837,932 in Q1 2023[27]. - Financial expenses decreased to RMB 794,873 in Q1 2024, down from RMB 848,115 in Q1 2023, indicating a reduction of 6.3%[34]. - The company reported a decrease in sales expenses to RMB 1,346,922 in Q1 2024 from RMB 1,510,292 in Q1 2023, a reduction of 10.8%[27]. - The company’s financial expenses decreased to RMB 1,021,611 in Q1 2024 from RMB 1,128,137 in Q1 2023, a decline of 9.4%[27].

Financial Performance - The operating revenue for the first quarter was CNY 265,011,337, representing a decrease of 2.56% compared to the same period last year[4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 7,481,215, reflecting a decline of 5.04% year-on-year[4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 7,168,617, down by 3.30% from the previous year[4]. - The basic earnings per share were CNY 0.289, a decrease of 5.25% compared to the same period last year[4]. - The company reported a total revenue of CNY 265.65 billion, a decrease of 2.56% year-on-year[15]. - The total profit for Q1 2024 was CNY 9,861,266 thousand, down 8.5% from CNY 10,773,328 thousand in the same period last year[20]. - The net profit for Q1 2024 reached CNY 940,755, an increase of 76.1% from CNY 534,101 in Q1 2023[25]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were CNY 1,857,390,090, an increase of 1.53% from the end of the previous year[5]. - The equity attributable to shareholders increased to CNY 339,936,440, up by 2.23% from the previous year-end[5]. - Total liabilities amounted to CNY 1,386,444,984, reflecting a rise of 1.2% from CNY 1,369,537,197 in the previous period[18]. - The total assets of the company reached CNY 1,857,390,090, an increase of 1.8% from CNY 1,829,439,189 at the end of 2023[18]. - The company’s total liabilities as of March 31, 2024, were CNY 100,000,000 thousand, reflecting a stable leverage position compared to the previous quarter[23]. - The total assets decreased to CNY 486,253,340 in Q1 2024 from CNY 500,768,269 in Q1 2023, reflecting a decline of 2.9%[24]. - The total liabilities decreased to CNY 233,318,032 in Q1 2024 from CNY 248,733,465 in Q1 2023, a reduction of 6.2%[24]. Cash Flow - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of CNY -68,065,449, indicating cash outflow due to project payments[4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was negative CNY 68,065,449 thousand, worsening from negative CNY 38,024,251 thousand in the previous year[21]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2024 were CNY 151,897,527 thousand, down from CNY 177,684,218 thousand at the end of Q1 2023[22]. - The cash outflow from financing activities totaled CNY 17,287,295 thousand, significantly higher than CNY 7,293,040 thousand in Q1 2023[22]. - The net cash flow from financing activities was -¥11,058,684, a decrease from -¥8,069,758 in the previous year[28]. - The total cash outflow from financing activities increased to ¥26,058,684 from ¥15,058,758 year-over-year[28]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue for infrastructure construction was CNY 235.61 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.37% year-on-year[15]. - The revenue from design consulting was CNY 4.78 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.11%[15]. - Equipment manufacturing revenue was CNY 6.63 billion, down 8.77% year-on-year[15]. - Real estate development revenue dropped significantly to CNY 418.3 million, a decrease of 46.90% year-on-year[15]. - The company noted a significant decline in the specialty real estate sector, with new contracts down 60.5% year-on-year[14]. Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 474,401[8]. - The company’s basic earnings per share for Q1 2024 were CNY 0.289, compared to CNY 0.305 in Q1 2023[20]. Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment showed a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in Q1 2024, with fixed asset investment increasing by 4.5%[12].

| A 股代码：601390 | A 股简称：中国中铁 | 公告编号：临 | 2024-011 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H 股代码：00390 | H 股简称：中国中铁 | | | 中国中铁股份有限公司 | 地区分布 | 新签合同额（亿元人民币） | 同比增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | 境内 | 5724.1 | -8.8% | | 境外 | 492.3 | 23.0% | | 合计 | 6216.4 | -6.9% | 3.房地产开发经营情况 | | | 2024 年 1-3 | 月 | 本年累计 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 面积/金额 | | 面积/金额 | 同比增减 | | 新增土地储备（万 2） | m | | 14.8 | 14.8 | 29.8% | | 开工面积（万 m | 2） | | 18.5 | 18.5 | -87.1% | | 竣工面积（万 m | 2） | | 14.6 | 14.6 | -90.8% | | 签约面积（万 m | 2） | | 46.3 | ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 reached RMB 1,263,412 million, an increase of 9.4% compared to RMB 1,154,349 million in 2022[6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 33,483 million, representing a 7.1% increase from RMB 31,273 million in 2022[6]. - Basic earnings per share increased to RMB 1.294, an 8.0% rise from RMB 1.198 in the previous year[6]. - The company achieved a gross profit margin improvement, with pre-tax profit rising to RMB 122,686 million, a 12.7% increase from RMB 108,890 million in 2022[6]. - The company's gross profit for 2023 was 122,686 million CNY, up from 108,890 million CNY in the previous year, indicating a growth of about 12.5%[197]. - The annual profit for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 37,637 million, an increase of 7.6% from RMB 34,967 million in 2022[198]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets grew to RMB 1,829,290 million, a 13.4% increase from RMB 1,613,135 million in 2022[7]. - Total liabilities increased to RMB 1,369,536 million, reflecting a 15.1% rise from RMB 1,190,266 million in 2022[7]. - The company's total liabilities increased to RMB 1,369,536 million in 2023, up from RMB 1,190,266 million in 2022, indicating a growth of 15.1%[200]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 196,150 million in 2023 from RMB 204,987 million in 2022, a decline of 4.1%[199]. Shareholder Information - As of the end of the reporting period, the total number of ordinary shareholders was 504,093, an increase from 491,216 at the end of the previous month[12]. - The largest shareholder, China Railway Group, holds 11,623,119,890 shares, accounting for 46.96% of the total shares[13]. - The company reported that as of December 31, 2023, the major shareholder, China Railway Group, holds 11,458,725,890 A shares, accounting for 55.77% of all issued A shares and 46.29% of total issued shares[123]. Business Strategy and Development - The company emphasized a focus on quality development and value creation, achieving key economic indicators such as operating income and net profit meeting expected targets[8]. - The company plans to continue its commitment to technological innovation and industry control to support sustainable development[8]. - The company aims to achieve high-quality development to support national economic stability and growth in 2024, which is a key year for the "14th Five-Year Plan" objectives[9]. - The company plans to enhance its core competitiveness and strengthen its strategic layout in emerging industries and future industries[9]. - The company is transitioning from debt-driven growth to innovation-driven development, aiming to become a world-class comprehensive construction industry group[55]. Market Presence and Contracts - The company is actively involved in major regional strategies, including the Belt and Road Initiative, enhancing its market presence[8]. - The company is a key player in the "Belt and Road" initiative, involved in major projects like the Indonesia Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway[37]. - In 2023, the company achieved new contract signings of CNY 3.1 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%[31]. - The engineering construction segment, the core business, secured new contracts worth CNY 2,250.97 billion, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year[37]. Innovation and Technology - The company plans to enhance its comprehensive service capabilities and standardization levels in response to the ongoing demand for green and low-carbon energy solutions[24]. - The company has established three national laboratories and 10 post-doctoral workstations, emphasizing its commitment to technological innovation and research[48]. - The company focused on R&D in areas such as plateau railway construction technology, high-speed railway construction technology, and green low-carbon technology, with significant projects including the Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed railway and the Brazil East-West railway[49]. Corporate Governance - The company has implemented a board diversity policy, considering factors such as gender, age, and professional experience to enhance decision-making efficiency[148]. - The board of directors consists of 7 members, with 3 executive directors and 4 non-executive directors, ensuring compliance with diversity policies[148]. - The company has received recognition for its governance practices, including being selected as a top 50 listed company in governance[147]. - The board has established five specialized committees to enhance governance effectiveness, including a strategy committee and an audit and risk management committee[147]. Sustainability and Social Responsibility - The management team emphasized the importance of sustainability initiatives, aiming for a 30% reduction in carbon emissions by 2025[96]. - The company made donations totaling RMB 96.09 million during the fiscal year, up from RMB 89.48 million in 2022[113]. - The company received multiple awards, including the "Best ESG Practice Award" and recognition as one of the "Top 50 ESG Companies in China" for its commitment to sustainable practices[186]. Risk Management - The group faces various business risks, including real estate investment risk, cash flow risk, international operation risk, and infrastructure investment risk[92]. - The company has established a risk management and internal control system to assess, monitor, and mitigate various risks[92].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 中國中鐵股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）宣佈，本公司將於二零二 四年四月二十九日（星期一）舉行董事會會議，藉以（其中包括）批准本公司及其附 屬公司截至二零二四年三月三十一日止三個月的季度業績。 承董事會命 中國中鐵股份有限公司 董事長 陳雲 中國中鐵股份有限公司 CHINA RAILWAY GROUP LIMITED （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：390） 董事會會議召開日期 中國 • 北京 2024年4月17日 於本公告日期，本公司的執行董事為陳雲先生（董事長）、陳文健先生及王士奇 先生；本公司的非執行董事為文利民先生；本公司的獨立非執行董事為鍾瑞明先 生、張誠先生及修龍先生。 ...

2024年4月1日 公司研究 业绩稳健增长，复合增速达股权激励目标 ——中国中铁（601390.SH/0390.HK）2023 年年报点评 要点 A 股：买入（维持） 当 前价：7.01元 事件：中国中铁发布2023年年报，23年公司实现收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净 利润分别为 12634.7/335/309 亿元，同比+9.5%/+7.1%/+9.3%。23Q4 公司实 H 股：买入（维持） 现收入/归母净利润/ 扣非净利润分别为 3790/95/83 亿元，同比 当前价：3.87港元 +24.5%/14.6%/14.0%。公司拟派发现金股利0.21元/股（含税），股息率约为 3.7%。 作者 点评： 分析师：孙伟风 扣非业绩复合增速高于股权激励考核目标，境外新签合同增速相对较快。以2020 执业证书编号：S0930516110003 021-52523822 年为基准，公司23年扣非归母净利润复合增长率约为12.2%，高于股权激励12% sunwf@ebscn.com 的要求。23年公司实现新签合同3.1万亿元，同增2.2%。境内及境外新签合同 为2.9万亿及1,997.9 亿元，同增1.8%及8.7%， ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年04月02日 中国中铁（601390.SH） 买入 四季度营收利润提速增长，矿产业务有望增厚业绩 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 整体业绩增速平稳，四季度增长提速。公司2023年实现营业收入12634.8 建筑装饰·基础建设 亿元，同比增长9.5%，实现归母净利润334.8亿元，同比增长7.1%， 证券分析师：任鹤 证券分析师：朱家琪 扣非归母净利润308.7亿元，同比增长9.3%，业绩整体实现稳健增长。 010-88005315 021-60375435 renhe@guosen.com.cn zhujiaqi@guosen.com.cn 分季度看，Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4单季营收分别为2726.3/3181.4/2937.6/3789.5 S0980520040006 S0980524010001 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 2.1%/8.4%/1.5%/24.5% ， 归 母 净 利 润 分 别 为 联系人：卢思宇 78.8/83.6/77.7/94.7亿元，同比+3.8%/+10.9%/-1.5%/+14.7%，四季度 0755-81981872 lusiyu1@guosen. ...