Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to see the exit of over 20-year-old outdated capacities, which could accelerate the recovery of the refining sector. The EIA has adjusted its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to an average of $69 and $58 per barrel, respectively [4][10]. - Demand for oil is projected to increase by 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day this year, with a notable decline in demand in Q2 2025. The IEA and OPEC have also provided similar forecasts for global oil demand growth [4][15]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the polyester sector, driven by supply-demand dynamics and the gradual exit of outdated capacities [21]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to $69.28 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. The WTI price also fell by 1.62% to $67.34 per barrel [25]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 7 to 544, although this represents a year-on-year decrease of 42 rigs [39]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin increased to $14.50 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread decreased to $21.14 per barrel [4]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as oil prices adjust downward, and the competitive landscape for leading refining companies is expected to benefit from the exit of overseas refineries and low domestic refining rates [21]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability is on the rise, while profits from polyester filament yarn have declined. The report notes that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a need to monitor demand changes [4][21]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as the industry is expected to gradually improve [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to leading refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and China Petroleum, as well as upstream exploration and production companies like CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corporation [21].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices experienced a slight decline due to concerns over increased gasoline inventories in the U.S. and OPEC+ production increases, with Brent and WTI prices at $69.28 and $66.05 per barrel respectively as of July 18, 2025 [2][7] - The oil and petrochemical sector showed a positive performance, with the sector rising by 1.13% compared to the 1.09% increase in the CSI 300 index [8][11] - The oil and gas extraction sector has seen a significant increase of 162.26% since 2022, while the refining and trading sector has risen by 28.99% [11] Oil Price Review - As of July 18, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $69.28 per barrel, down $1.08 (-1.53%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $66.05 per barrel, down $2.40 (-3.51%) [23] - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude increased by $0.55 (+0.85%) to $64.96 per barrel [23] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 384, a decrease of 1 from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling platforms remained at 134 [30] U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10,000 barrels from the previous week [43] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 422, down by 2 rigs [43] - The number of hydraulic fracturing fleets in the U.S. was 174, down by 6 fleets [43] U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing was 16.849 million barrels per day, down by 157,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.90%, down 0.8 percentage points [56] U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory was 825 million barrels, a decrease of 4.159 million barrels (-0.50%) from the previous week [68] - Strategic oil inventory was 403 million barrels, down by 300,000 barrels (-0.07%) [68] - Commercial crude oil inventory was 422 million barrels, down by 3.859 million barrels (-0.91%) [68] Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [2]

金融界7月15日消息，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，中证国企一带一路指数 (国企一带一路，000859)下 跌0.89%，报1606.56点，成交额674.71亿元。 数据统计显示，中证国企一带一路指数近一个月上涨1.60%，近三个月上涨4.43%，年至今下跌0.38%。 据了解，中证国企一带一路指数从沪深市场参与一带一路建设的国企上市公司中，综合评估其市值规 模、一带一路业务参与程度、盈利质量及股东回报、社会责任情况，选取其中较具代表性的100只上市 公司证券作为指数样本，以反映受益于一带一路主题的国企上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数以2013年 12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，中证国企一带一路指数十大权重分别为：中远海控（2.64%）、平高电气 （2.41%）、小商品城（2.31%）、中远海发（2.15%）、中海油服（2.11%）、山东黄金（2.03%）、中 国铝业（2.0%）、东阿阿胶（1.99%）、北新建材（1.93%）、广东宏大（1.92%）。 从中证国企一带一路指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比74.15%、深圳证券交易所占比 25.85%。 从中证国企一带一路指数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential recovery in polyester and refining sectors [2][14]. Core Insights - The EIA has revised down its natural gas price forecasts due to rising inventories, with the third-quarter price expected at $3.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and the fourth quarter at $3.99 MMBtu [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas inventories reached 30,060 billion cubic feet, significantly above the five-year average, indicating a clear accumulation trend [6]. - Oil prices have shown an upward trend, with Brent crude futures closing at $70.36 per barrel, reflecting a 3.02% increase week-over-week [18]. - The report anticipates a downward adjustment in oil prices due to widening supply-demand dynamics, although OPEC production cuts and shale oil cost support may maintain prices at mid-high levels [2][18]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Market - The EIA has lowered its natural gas price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2025, with average prices expected at $3.67 and $4.41 per MMBtu for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas production reached 11.68 billion cubic feet per day in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7 billion cubic feet per day [6]. - Solar power is increasingly substituting natural gas in electricity generation, with a projected 3% decline in gas-fired generation in 2025 [11]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $70.36 per barrel, while WTI prices rose to $68.45 per barrel, with weekly average prices showing gains of 2.34% and 2.44%, respectively [18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 426 million barrels, with gasoline inventories decreasing to 229 million barrels [19]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 537, down 2 from the previous week and 47 year-on-year [29]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $13.70 per barrel, reflecting a decline of $0.31 per barrel week-over-week [50]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices adjust downward, with domestic refining product margins still at low levels [48]. Polyester Sector - The report highlights a recovery expectation in the polyester sector, with improved profitability anticipated as supply-demand dynamics stabilize [14]. - Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [14]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the upstream exploration and production sector, particularly offshore oil service firms like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering, which are projected to see performance improvements [14].

Group 1 - The China Securities Index series includes the CSI 500, CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Small Comprehensive Index, and CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Comprehensive Index, categorized into 11 industries to reflect the overall performance of different industry securities [1][2] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Small Comprehensive Energy Index has shown a 2.88% increase over the past month, a 7.73% increase over the past three months, and a 6.22% decrease year-to-date [1] - The top ten holdings in the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Small Comprehensive Energy Index include China Coal Energy (11.12%), Jereh Oilfield Services (6.61%), Meijin Energy (4.44%), and others [1] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Small Comprehensive Energy Index is distributed as follows: Shanghai Stock Exchange 52.20%, Shenzhen Stock Exchange 24.29%, and Hong Kong Stock Exchange 23.51% [2] - The industry composition of the index shows that coal accounts for 37.32%, coke for 18.96%, fuel refining for 12.62%, oil and gas extraction for 12.35%, and oilfield services for 9.14% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for specific companies within the sector [4][5]. Core Insights - OPEC has announced an unexpected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, but the actual impact of this increase remains to be observed [4][5]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $68.3 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.78% [4][18]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads show varied trends [4][47]. - The polyester sector is facing profitability challenges, but there are expectations for recovery as supply and demand improve [4][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - OPEC's actual production increase has been lower than expected, with April's total production at approximately 31.1 million barrels per day, a decrease of 210,000 barrels from the previous month [4][8]. - The U.S. oil rig count decreased to 539, down 8 from the previous week and down 46 year-on-year [31][32]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects prices to stabilize at mid-high levels due to OPEC's production cuts and shale oil cost support [4][18]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $14.01 per barrel, down $2.46 from the previous week [51]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread was $22.37 per barrel, up $0.53 from the previous week, with a historical average of $24.86 per barrel [56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low levels [4][47]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price has seen a decline, with the average price in East China at 4,971.4 yuan per ton, down 3.26% week-on-week [4][13]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in the polyester industry, with expectations for improved profitability as supply-demand dynamics shift positively [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][13]. - It also suggests that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with high capital expenditure expected to continue, particularly for offshore oil service companies [4][13].

Group 1 - The combustible ice concept sector declined by 1.21%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors as of July 3 [1] - Major companies within the combustible ice sector that experienced significant declines include Qianeng Huanxin, Haimer Technology, and China International Marine Containers [1] - The top-performing concept sectors for the day included Tonghuashun Fruit Index with a gain of 4.73% and PCB concept with a gain of 3.27% [1] Group 2 - The combustible ice sector saw a net outflow of 483 million yuan from main funds, with 11 stocks experiencing net outflows and 8 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [1] - The stock with the highest net outflow was ShenKai Co., with a net outflow of 218 million yuan, followed by Sinopec, China International Marine Containers, and Xinjin Power [1] - The detailed outflow data shows that ShenKai Co. had a turnover rate of 47% and a slight increase of 0.40%, while Sinopec had a turnover rate of 0.13% and a decline of 0.53% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The international three major institutions (IEA, EIA, OPEC) have adjusted their forecasts for global crude oil supply, demand, and inventory in 2025 in their June reports. The average forecast for inventory change is flat compared to last month, while the supply forecasts have increased, and the demand forecasts have mixed changes. Non - OECD countries, represented by China, are expected to be the main contributors to the global crude oil demand growth in 2025 [2][99][111]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Crude Oil Inventory - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 global crude oil inventory changes to be +110, +82, and - 132 barrels per day respectively, with changes of -10, -5, and +15 barrels per day compared to May 2025 forecasts. The average forecast for 2025 inventory change is +20 barrels per day, unchanged from last month's average [2]. 3.2 Global Crude Oil Supply 3.2.1 Global Crude Oil Supply Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 crude oil supply to be 10490, 10434, and 10382 barrels per day respectively, an increase of 190, 159, and 147 barrels per day compared to 2024. Compared to May 2025 forecasts, the increases are 30, 22, and 4 barrels per day respectively [16]. 3.2.2 Global Major Regional Crude Oil Supply Situations - **Three - institution Regional Supply Increment Forecasts**: IEA expects the 2025 global crude oil supply increment to be concentrated in OPEC, American OECD countries, and Latin American countries; EIA expects it to be in North American and Central & South American countries; OPEC expects it to be in DoC and American OECD countries [29][31][35]. - **OPEC+**: In May 2025, the total crude oil production of 12 OPEC countries averaged 2702 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 18.3 barrels per day, due to production changes in Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. The total remaining capacity of OPEC+ is 619 barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 16 barrels per day [37][41]. - **Russia**: In May 2025, Russia's total export volume was 730 barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 30 barrels per day [54]. - **USA**: EIA predicts that the average crude oil production in the US in 2025 will be 1341 barrels per day, an increase of 21 barrels per day compared to 2024 and unchanged from the May 2025 forecast. As of June 2024, the total production of the seven major shale oil producing regions in the US was 985 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 barrels per day; the shale oil production in the Permian region was 619 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 1.8 barrels per day [63][69]. 3.3 Global Crude Oil Demand 3.3.1 Global Crude Oil Demand Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 crude oil demand to be 10380, 10353, and 10513 barrels per day respectively, an increase of 80, 79, and 138 barrels per day compared to 2024. Compared to May 2025 forecasts, the changes are -10, -19, and +14 barrels per day respectively. Non - OECD countries represented by China are expected to be the main contributors to the demand increment, while OECD countries' demand growth is expected to be weak [99][111]. 3.3.2 Global Different Petroleum Product Demand Situations - IEA expects the demand for chemical oil to recover significantly in 2025. Globally, the demand for aviation kerosene, diesel, and gasoline is expected to increase by 13, 4, and 12 barrels per day respectively compared to 2024; the demand for LPG and ethane, and naphtha in the chemical product sector will increase by 30 and 20 barrels per day respectively. In China, the demand for chemical oil is also expected to recover, with changes in the demand for aviation kerosene, diesel, and gasoline being +2, -3, and -13 barrels per day respectively, and the demand for LPG and ethane, and naphtha increasing by 6 and 15 barrels per day respectively [117][119]. 3.4 Related Listed Companies - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corp. (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Development Co., Ltd. (600968.SH). Companies to be concerned about include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical Engineering Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cease - fire of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a significant decline in international oil prices [1] - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the weekly data of the US crude oil and refined oil markets, including prices, inventories, production, demand, and import - export volumes [2] - It also presents the performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector and related listed companies, along with their valuations [21][24] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - The data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9] 3.2 This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review 3.2.1 Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance - Information on the sector's performance includes the sector's sub - industry price changes and the trend of the sector's sub - industries and the CSI 300 index [17] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [15][20] 3.2.2 Performance of Listed Companies in the Sector - The report shows the price changes of major companies in the upstream sector in different time periods (last week, last month, last three months, last year, and since the beginning of 2025) [22] - A valuation table for listed companies is provided, including share prices, total market values, net profits attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB ratios from 2024 to 2027 [24] 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.3.1 Crude Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price differences of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oils, and the relationships between crude oil prices and the US dollar index, copper prices [29][39][43] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [30][32][34] 3.3.2 Crude Oil Inventory - Examines the correlation between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, and the relationship between the weekly destocking rate of US commercial crude oil and the price change of Brent crude oil [45][46] - Presents data on US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory [48][49][53] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [45][48][49] 3.3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of active crude oil rigs, and the number of active fracturing fleets, as well as their relationships with oil prices [57][58] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [57][59] 3.3.4 Crude Oil Demand - Analyzes US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery operating rate, and Shandong refinery operating rate [62][64] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [63][64] 3.3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US crude oil import volume, export volume, net import volume, and the import - export volume of crude oil and petroleum products [67][70] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [68][69][70] 3.4 Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.4.1 Refined Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price differences between crude oil and domestic/US/European/Singapore gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as the wholesale - retail price differences of domestic gasoline and diesel [75][84][90] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [75][77][82] 3.4.2 Refined Oil Inventory - Presents data on US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene inventories, and Singapore gasoline and diesel inventories [102][105][111] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [102][106][112] 3.4.3 Refined Oil Supply - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production [117][118][120] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [119][120] 3.4.4 Refined Oil Demand - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene consumption, and the number of airport security checks for passengers [122][125][129] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [123][126][130] 3.4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export - Analyzes the import - export situation and net export volume of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene [132][135][136] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [133][136][137] 3.5 Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily rates of self - elevating and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry [146][147][149] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [146][148][150]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester industry, particularly for polyester filament yarn, anticipating a recovery in demand due to improving Sino-US trade relations [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the expectation of a recovery in polyester filament yarn demand as Sino-US trade restrictions are anticipated to ease, potentially restoring textile and apparel exports to the US [4][5]. - It notes that US apparel wholesalers have been depleting their inventories since Q4 2022, and with the overseas economy recovering, a replenishment phase is expected to begin in 2025, further boosting filament yarn demand [4][7]. - The report emphasizes that downstream inventories for polyester filament yarn are at historically low levels, which supports a stable demand outlook despite external trade pressures [11]. - The report indicates that the valuation of polyester filament yarn companies is currently at historical lows, suggesting potential for upward movement during the seasonal peak periods [14]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell to $67.77 per barrel, a decrease of 12% week-on-week, while WTI prices dropped to $65.52 per barrel, down 11.27% [22]. - US commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 415 million barrels, down 5.84 million barrels from the previous week, and are 11% lower than the five-year average [24]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend for crude oil, with expectations of price fluctuations but overall stability due to OPEC+ production cuts [4][22]. Refining Sector - The report notes an increase in the Singapore refining margin to $16.47 per barrel, up $4.89 from the previous week, indicating improved refining profitability [56]. - The report suggests that refining product margins are still low but are expected to improve as economic recovery progresses [4][53]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have been rising, with the average price in East China reaching 5,139 RMB per ton, up 1.08% week-on-week [4]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for leading polyester companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, anticipating a recovery in profitability as supply-demand dynamics improve [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading polyester companies, refining firms, and offshore oil service companies, citing potential for performance improvement as market conditions stabilize [18].