Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - A super cycle for industrial metals may have arrived, with a focus on copper and aluminum sectors. The report highlights that even small supply-demand gaps can lead to significant price elasticity during a rate-cutting cycle [9][13] - Copper prices have surged, with LME copper closing at a historical high of $11,655 per ton, driven by supply tightness and tariff concerns [9][13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from strong demand in energy storage, with projections indicating a need for 800,000 tons of aluminum materials due to the anticipated growth in storage battery production [9][14] - The gold sector is also viewed positively, with expectations for gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by rising inflation expectations [9][15] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report indicates a significant increase in metal prices, with copper and aluminum prices rising sharply. The LME copper price increased by 1.88% recently, reflecting strong market conditions [9][13] - Supply constraints are evident, with LME copper warehouse cancellations reaching 56,900 tons, about 35% of total inventory, marking the largest single-day withdrawal in 13 years [9][13] - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors will see continued price increases due to strong demand from traditional and new energy sectors [9][13][14] Steel - The steel sector is experiencing weak supply-demand fundamentals during the off-season, with a slight recovery in steel profitability noted [17] - Weekly rebar consumption decreased by 4.81% compared to the previous week, indicating a decline in demand [21] - Overall steel prices have shown a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3,355 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.16% week-on-week increase [38][39] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [42] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [46] - Nickel production and consumption trends are mixed, with refined nickel output in China showing a notable year-on-year decline of 12.20% [44][49] Price Trends - The report notes that lithium prices have seen a slight decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 91,100 yuan per ton, down 2.36% week-on-week [51][52] - Cobalt prices have increased significantly, with sulfuric acid cobalt priced at 90,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 236.45% [51][52]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the materials sector, specifically aluminum, copper, and the battery chain, with a cautious stance on anti-involution sectors [1][2][3]. Core Insights Aluminum - Aluminum is preferred over copper due to underappreciated supply risks, particularly regarding smelting capacity in Indonesia and potential over-optimism in Middle Eastern expansion plans [2]. - Chinese smelter utilization is reported at over 98%, with China being a net importer of aluminum, primarily from Russia [2]. - Apparent consumption and inventory levels for aluminum in China are healthier compared to copper [2]. - Top picks in aluminum include Hongqiao and Chalco H/A [2]. Copper - Demand for copper is weakening as of Q4 2025, with inventory stockpiling observed in both the US and China [3]. - Price expectations for copper may be influenced by anticipated rate cuts into 2026, with long-term bullish sentiment due to potential supply deficits in the next 3-5 years [3]. - Tight global power supply is contributing to positive sentiment for copper [3]. - Zijin Mining's copper and lithium assets are considered undervalued, with a Buy rating maintained [3]. - Among pure copper plays, MMG is preferred over CMOC for better valuation [3]. Battery Chain - The battery chain is viewed as more defensive, with a rally driven by strong expectations for energy storage systems (ESS) [4]. - Caution is advised before the Chinese New Year, as the rally may be mostly priced in [4]. - Defensive names like CATL are preferred into Q1 2026 due to uncertainties in production pipelines and weak EV demand [4]. - Key catalysts to watch include the production pipeline in March 2026, which could shift market sentiment towards companies with higher elasticity [4]. Cement and Steel - Cement and steel sectors are the least preferred, with steel demand supported by exports but facing weaker anti-involution enforcement [5]. - Production cuts in cement are not expected due to profitability among companies, leading to low prices and profits into H1 2026, with potential recovery in H2 2026 [6]. Additional Important Points - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the production pipeline and market conditions closely, particularly for aluminum and copper [2][3][4]. - The overall sector ranking is: Aluminum > Copper > Battery > Gold > Battery Materials > Coal > Cement > Steel [1]. - Cross-sector top picks include Hongqiao, Chalco H/A, Zijin Mining H/A, and CATL-A [1].

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 沈右荣 万亿紫金矿业帝国换帅，一代"金王"谢幕。 2025年前三季度，紫金矿业盈利378.64亿元，创了历史新高，并超过了2024年全年。 现年68岁的陈景河，被称为"中国金王"，按照其持股市值计算，财富约27亿元。 主动交棒的陈景河说，一个基业长青的企业应从"创始人驱动"迈向"制度驱动"，当前正是新老交替的最好时机。 谁来接棒董事长，未来的紫金矿业能否继续创造神话，市场充满期待。 一代"金王"谢幕 掌舵32年，将紫金矿业打造成万亿金属矿业帝国的"中国金王"谢幕了。 近期，紫金矿业（601899.SH、02899.HK）宣布，公司创始人、董事长陈景河因年龄和家庭原因，提出不再接受 第九届董事会董事候选人提名，公司将聘任陈景河为"终身荣誉董事长"及高级顾问。 这意味着陈景河正式交棒。 始于1993年，止于2025年，陈景河掌舵紫金矿业32年。从福建上杭山出发，走出福建，走出亚洲，紫金矿业如今 已经成长为综合指标进入全球金属矿业企业前列的跨国矿业集团。 紫金矿业加上分拆至港股上市的紫金黄金国际（02259.HK），市值已经约1.19万亿元。如果算上控股的藏格矿业 和龙净环保，紫金系总 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 - 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 供应格局趋紧，工业金属价格大幅 上行 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 行 业 点 评 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 有色金属 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37% ...

Group 1 - Copper prices have recently reached record highs, with LME copper closing at $11,665.0 per ton on December 5, up 32.84% from $8,781.5 per ton at the end of last year [1] - The increase in copper prices is driven by tight supply and growing demand, with concerns over supply shortages due to a 10% reduction in mining capacity signals from China's copper raw material negotiation group [1] - External factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the strategic importance of copper in global supply chains are also supporting the price increase [1] Group 2 - Short-term outlook indicates that low inventory levels and high cancellation of warehouse receipts will support continued price increases, while medium-term factors include the recovery of demand and production resumption in regions like Chile [2] - Long-term demand for copper is expected to remain strong due to the growth in renewable energy and artificial intelligence computing needs, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance [2] - Companies like Zijin Mining Group have reported significant revenue growth, with a 10.33% increase in revenue to 254.2 billion yuan and a 55.45% increase in net profit to 37.864 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][3] Group 3 - Zijin Mining has positioned itself among the top global copper producers through strategic acquisitions and resource integration, with a key project expected to enhance copper supply capacity by the end of 2025 [3] - Downstream companies are facing cost pressures due to rising copper prices, with some reporting declines in revenue and net profit as a result of increased raw material costs [3] - Companies are implementing measures such as technological upgrades and pricing mechanisms linked to copper prices to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by supply shortages, macroeconomic monetary easing, and surging demand from emerging sectors, with prices reaching historical highs in December 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Performance - As of December 5, 2023, LME copper futures peaked at $11,705 per ton, marking a historical high, while domestic copper futures approached 93,000 yuan per ton [1]. - The A-share copper sector has seen over a 70% increase this year, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining witnessing stock price increases exceeding 100% [1]. - The price surge is attributed to multiple factors, including supply constraints from major production areas and increased demand for copper due to infrastructure upgrades and renewable energy developments [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Global copper supply is tightening due to significant production disruptions, including a 28% reduction in annual output guidance from the Kamoa-Kakula mine and a complete suspension of operations at the Grasberg mine until mid-2026 [2]. - The International Copper Study Group reported a mere 1.4% increase in global copper mine production this year, resulting in a supply-demand gap of 150,000 tons, which is expected to widen to 300,000 tons by 2026 [2]. Group 3: Demand Drivers - The transition to renewable energy is driving copper demand, with the International Energy Agency projecting that copper usage in data centers could reach between 250,000 to 550,000 tons by 2030, accounting for 1%-2% of global copper demand [3]. - Analysts expect that structural factors driving copper prices will remain unchanged, keeping prices in an upward trajectory with limited short-term correction opportunities [3]. Group 4: Economic and Financial Factors - The ongoing economic recovery and a loose monetary policy environment are expected to enhance copper's financial attributes, with historical trends indicating that global interest rate cuts can strengthen copper prices [4]. - Optimism regarding future liquidity easing is prevalent, with expectations of continued supportive fiscal and monetary policies both domestically and internationally [4].

紫金矿业股价本周上涨近一成 | 2012年11月1日 | 起始点位 | 最新点位 | 昨日涨幅 | 本周涨幅 | 12月涨幅 | 2025年涨幅 | 累计涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 起开仓 | | | (%) | (%) | (%) | (%) | (%) | | 上证指数 | 2068.88 | 3902.81 | 0.70 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 16.44 | 88.64 | | 大众30指数 | 1000.00 | 6254.78 | 1.55 | 2.99 | 2.99 | 34.48 | 525.48 | 值得一提的是，紫金矿业股价本周上涨近一成。消息面上，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特日前表示，美联储下次会议将降息约25 个基点。此外，受美国一系列疲软的就业数据影响，部分投资者正加大力度押注美联储将进一步降息。高盛最新发布的报告指出，美国 劳动力市场明显出现了降温迹象，美联储12月很可能降息25个基点。银河证券表示，美联储降息周期中的流动性宽松，使有色金属价格 与行业增速持续提升，有色金属行业有望进入 ...

Market Overview - In November, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a trend of high-low switching, with the ChiNext Index down 4.23% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 5.23%[5] - The market's focus shifted towards defensive sectors as funds moved from high-valuation growth stocks to low-valuation cyclical stocks and dividend assets[5] Investment Strategy - December's market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with a short-term oscillating structure anticipated[5] - Key events include the Central Economic Work Conference and various industry conferences that may create investment opportunities[5] Key Investment Themes - Focus on "anti-involution" policies which are expected to improve industry performance, particularly in resource sectors benefiting from rising commodity prices[5] - Emphasis on overseas expansion themes, with Chinese high-end manufacturing expected to gain market share globally[5] Recommended Stocks - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) projected EPS growth from 1.21 in 2024 to 2.83 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 23.62 to 10.10[7] - Electric Power Investment (002128.SZ) expected to see EPS rise from 2.38 in 2024 to 2.75 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 10.9 to 9.45[27] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's revenue is projected to grow from 303.64 billion yuan in 2024 to 381.84 billion yuan in 2027, with a net profit increase from 32.05 billion yuan to 75.22 billion yuan[18] - Electric Power Investment's revenue is expected to increase from 298.59 billion yuan in 2024 to 371.25 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit rising from 5.34 billion yuan to 6.17 billion yuan[27] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected policy changes, underperformance in commercialization, and slower-than-expected product development[5]

Core Viewpoint - The overall materials index (000987) experienced a rise of 2.13% on December 5, closing at 4681.4 points, with a total trading volume of 125.67 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.57% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The index saw 137 stocks increase in value, with International Composite Materials leading the gainers at a 20.03% increase, while 24 stocks declined, with Multi-Fluorine leading the losses at a 2.46% decrease [1] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include Zijin Mining, Wanhua Chemical, and others, with Zijin Mining holding the largest weight at 11.36% and a price increase of 2.05% [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds into the index's constituent stocks totaled 3.025 billion yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 488 million yuan [3] - The detailed capital flow indicates that Zijin Mining had a net inflow of 731 million yuan from main funds, while it faced a net outflow of 2.01 billion yuan from retail investors [3] Group 3: Index Adjustments - Recent adjustments to the index included the addition of 16 new stocks and the removal of 5 stocks, effective December 15, 2025 [4] - Newly added stocks include companies like Shangwei New Materials and Lianrui New Materials, while stocks such as Jinhui Co. and Sanyou Chemical were removed from the index [4]

Core Viewpoint - The State-Owned Enterprise Reform Index (399974) closed at 1869.16 points on December 5, with a gain of 0.91% and a trading volume of 115.45 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment towards state-owned enterprises [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The index saw 71 stocks rise, with Goldwind Technology leading at a 5.46% increase, while 28 stocks fell, with Shenzhen South Circuit leading the decline at 2.74% [1]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include Zijin Mining, China Merchants Bank, and Changjiang Electric Power, with respective weights of 3.48%, 3.03%, and 2.98% [1]. Group 2: Market Capitalization and Sector Breakdown - The total market capitalization of the top ten stocks includes Zijin Mining at 832.41 billion yuan and China Merchants Bank at 1,095.80 billion yuan, reflecting significant investment in the metals and banking sectors [1]. - The sectors represented in the top ten include non-ferrous metals, banking, public utilities, and food and beverage, indicating a diverse investment landscape [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of main funds into the index constituents totaled 2.22 billion yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 816 million yuan, suggesting institutional confidence contrasted with retail caution [3]. - Notable stocks with significant capital flow include BOE Technology Group with a net outflow of 900 million yuan from main funds and Zijin Mining with a net inflow of 731 million yuan [3]. Group 4: Index Adjustments - Recent adjustments to the index included the addition of Guorui Technology and Zhongcai Technology, while Haifeng Control and Xujie Electric were removed, reflecting ongoing changes in the index composition [4].