证券分析师 袁理 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电力 中国核电（601985） 2024 年报&2025 一季报点评：所得税影响 24 年业绩，25Q1 核电业绩增长强劲 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 74,957 | 77,272 | 81,782 | 86,582 | 97,201 | | 同比（%） | 5.15 | 3.09 | 5.84 | 5.87 | 12.26 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10,624 | 8,777 | 10,044 | 10,398 | 11,591 | | 同比（%） | 17.91 | (17.38) | 14.43 | 3.52 | 11.48 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.52 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.56 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 17.87 | 21.63 | 18.90 | 18.26 | ...

| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 74,957 | 77,272 | 81,782 | 86,582 | 97,201 | | 同比（%） | 5.15 | 3.09 | 5.84 | 5.87 | 12.26 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10,624 | 8,777 | 10,044 | 10,398 | 11,591 | | 同比（%） | 17.91 | (17.38) | 14.43 | 3.52 | 11.48 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.52 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.56 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 17.87 | 21.63 | 18.90 | 18.26 | 16.38 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电力 中国核电（601985） 2024 年报&2025 一季报点评：所得 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant achievements and advancements of China's "Hualong One" nuclear technology over the past decade, showcasing its transition from a follower to a leader in the global nuclear power industry, with a focus on safety, efficiency, and international collaboration [1][11]. Group 1: Development and Achievements - "Hualong One" has seen the successful operation of 7 units domestically and internationally, with a total of 41 units either in operation or under construction globally [1][2]. - The first "Hualong One" unit has achieved nearly 1000 days of safe operation, generating approximately 65 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, demonstrating its operational excellence [7][11]. - The construction of the first unit was completed in just 68.7 months, setting a global record for the construction of third-generation nuclear power plants [4]. Group 2: Technical Innovations - The "Hualong One" design features a rated power of over 1100 MWe, a lifespan of 60 years, and advanced safety measures, including the ability to withstand a magnitude 9 earthquake and protection against large aircraft impacts [2][3]. - The development process involved the establishment of a comprehensive standard system and a robust intellectual property framework, including over 700 domestic patents and 65 international patents [3]. Group 3: International Expansion - The "Hualong One" technology has been successfully implemented in the K-2/K-3 units at the Karachi Nuclear Power Plant in Pakistan, providing clean electricity for approximately 2 million people and creating over 60,000 local jobs [9][10]. - The project is recognized as a model for international energy cooperation, significantly contributing to Pakistan's energy structure and reducing carbon emissions [9]. Group 4: Talent Development - The establishment of the Hualong International Training Center aims to cultivate skilled personnel for the nuclear industry, with 538 operators and 293 senior operators trained to date [8][10]. - The training initiatives support the ongoing development and international deployment of "Hualong One" technology, enhancing the competitiveness of the Chinese nuclear industry [10].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [10] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a mixed performance across various sectors within the public utility and environmental protection industry, with coal prices declining and water supply improving, reshaping the defensive value of water and coal [3] - The overall electricity consumption growth slowed down due to a warm winter and high base effects from the previous year, impacting thermal power generation negatively [4][29] - The renewable energy sector faces profit pressure due to declining utilization rates and electricity prices, despite significant installed capacity growth [4][52] - Hydropower benefits from improved water supply and reservoir management, leading to increased revenue and profit in early 2025 [5][7] - The environmental sector shows stable performance in water and solid waste operations, with a recovery in water profitability in early 2025 [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of 2024 Reports and 2025 Q1 - The electricity industry saw a 6.7% growth in consumption in 2024, driven by structural optimization and rising demand for new energy sources [16] - The environmental sector experienced a revenue decline of 2.7% and a net profit drop of 31% in 2024, with operational efficiency improvements in existing assets [16] 2. Sector Performance from 2024 to Q1 2025 2.1 Thermal Power - Thermal power generation faced pressure from electricity prices and demand, but benefited from lower coal prices, leading to a net profit increase of 6.5% in Q1 2025 [4][36][37] 2.2 Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector's profit was under pressure due to declining utilization rates and electricity prices, despite a 15.7% increase in wind power generation in 2024 [4][52] 2.3 Hydropower - Hydropower generation increased by 11.7% in 2024, with a significant profit increase in Q1 2025 due to improved water supply [5][7] 2.4 Environmental Protection - The environmental sector showed stable performance in water and solid waste operations, with a recovery in profitability in early 2025 [5][6] 3. Key Companies in the Sector - Focus on leading companies in thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power, such as Huadian International, Yangtze Power, and China Nuclear Power, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong growth outlook due to continuous expansion in nuclear and renewable energy generation capacity [4][6]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 77.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.38% to 8.77 billion yuan. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 20.27 billion yuan, up 12.70% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.14 billion yuan, an increase of 2.55% [1][2]. - The total operational power generation in 2024 was 216.35 billion kWh, a 3.09% increase year-on-year, with nuclear power generation slightly declining by 1.80% to 183.12 billion kWh due to increased maintenance and typhoon impacts [2][3]. - The company is expanding its nuclear and renewable energy capacity significantly, with plans to commission 12 new nuclear units from 2025 to 2029 and a substantial increase in renewable energy capacity under construction [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 77.27 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 3.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.77 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 17.38% [1][5]. - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 20.27 billion yuan, marking a 12.70% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was 3.14 billion yuan, up 2.55% [1]. Power Generation - In 2024, the cumulative operational power generation was 2163.49 billion kWh, with nuclear power generation at 1831.22 billion kWh, down 1.80% year-on-year. Renewable energy generation saw a significant increase of 42.21% to 332.27 billion kWh [2][3]. - For Q1 2025, the company generated 494.82 billion kWh from nuclear and 102.60 billion kWh from renewable sources, representing year-on-year growth of 13.30% and 38.35%, respectively [2]. Capacity Expansion - The company plans to expand its nuclear capacity with 12 new units scheduled for commissioning from 2025 to 2029. Additionally, it has 14.36 million kW of renewable energy capacity under construction, a 47.60% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The recent approval of two new nuclear units in Zhejiang adds 2.43 million kW to the company's capacity [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a decrease in net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 due to expected declines in long-term electricity prices, with revised net profit forecasts of 10.44 billion yuan and 11.26 billion yuan, respectively [4][5]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 0.51 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 18 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The significant increase in income tax expenses has negatively impacted profitability, but the existing nuclear power projects ensure stable growth [5] - The company reported a revenue of 77.27 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.38% to 8.78 billion yuan [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.16 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 41.9%, an increase of approximately 7 percentage points year-on-year [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2023: 74.96 billion yuan - 2024: 77.27 billion yuan - 2025E: 84.54 billion yuan - 2026E: 88.54 billion yuan - 2027E: 99.29 billion yuan - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: - 2023: 5.15% - 2024: 3.09% - 2025E: 9.41% - 2026E: 4.73% - 2027E: 12.13% [6] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2023: 10.62 billion yuan - 2024: 8.78 billion yuan - 2025E: 9.99 billion yuan - 2026E: 10.50 billion yuan - 2027E: 11.28 billion yuan - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: - 2023: 17.91% - 2024: -17.38% - 2025E: 13.89% - 2026E: 5.05% - 2027E: 7.41% [6] Operational Highlights - In 2024, the company achieved a nuclear power generation volume of 183.12 billion kWh, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, primarily due to increased maintenance at the Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant [7] - The company completed a renewable energy generation volume of 33.23 billion kWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42.21% [7] - The marketization ratio of nuclear power reached 50.78%, an increase of 8.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the renewable energy marketization ratio reached 66.43%, an increase of 7.31 percentage points year-on-year [7] Future Outlook - The company has received approval for 10 new nuclear power units, bringing the total number of units under construction or approved to 19, which is expected to support stable long-term growth [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to be 10.00 billion yuan, 10.50 billion yuan, and 11.28 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 13.9%, 5.1%, and 7.4% [7]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 77.272 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.777 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.38% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 20.273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.137 billion yuan, an increase of 2.55% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The average on-grid electricity prices for nuclear, solar, and wind power in 2024 were approximately 0.4151, 0.4466, and 0.3885 yuan per kilowatt-hour, respectively, with changes of +0.4, -0.09, and -0.03 yuan compared to 2023 [2] - The company's income tax expenses for 2024 were 6.011 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 68.34%, primarily due to the provision for value-added tax refunds affecting income tax expenses [2] Power Generation and Capacity - The total on-grid electricity for 2024 was 203.923 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 3.28%, with nuclear power generation at 171.260 billion kilowatt-hours, a decrease of 1.83% [1] - The company has 18 nuclear power units under construction or awaiting approval as of December 31, 2024, with a total installed capacity of 20.641 million kilowatts [3] Future Growth Prospects - The company plans to commission the Zhangzhou Nuclear Power Unit 2 in 2025, with additional units expected to come online in 2026 and 2027, indicating strong growth potential [3] - The company forecasts net profits of 9.6 billion, 10.3 billion, and 11.4 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.42%, 7.32%, and 10.77%, respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of China Nuclear Power's board of directors approved the nomination of non-independent director candidates by the National Social Security Fund Council and China Reform Holdings Corporation, marking a significant step in the company's governance and development [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The National Social Security Fund and China Reform Holdings' nomination of directors is a practical implementation of the government's call to deepen capital market reforms and promote long-term capital investment [1] - China Nuclear Power is a leading enterprise in domestic nuclear energy generation, with three core industries: nuclear energy, non-nuclear clean energy, and strategic emerging industries [1] - The company has accelerated innovations in various reactor types, including Hualong One, high-temperature reactors, fast reactors, and small reactors, as well as isotope production technology [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The government's work report emphasizes the importance of integrating long-term capital into the capital market, which is now being realized through a series of related policies [1] - The involvement of long-term capital in corporate governance is expected to enhance the quality of listed companies [1]

Group 1 - The China Power Utility Index has seen a decline of 0.85% as of April 30, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including Shenzhen Energy leading with a rise of 2.73% [1] - The Power ETF (159611) has shown a cumulative increase of 0.63% over the past week, with a trading volume of 188 million yuan and a turnover rate of 5.64% on the latest trading day [1] - The Power ETF has experienced significant growth in scale, increasing by 1.641 billion yuan over the past six months, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Power Utility Index account for 55.94% of the index, with major players including Changjiang Electric Power and China Nuclear Power [2] - The five major power generation groups reported profits in 2024, with Guodian Power distributing cash dividends of 3.567 billion yuan, representing 36.28% of its net profit [2] - The power and utility sector is recognized for its stability and defensive characteristics, with expectations for favorable fiscal and monetary policies in 2025 to support high dividend, low valuation assets [2] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration anticipates a rapid increase in national electricity load during the summer of 2025, with a projected year-on-year increase of approximately 10 million kilowatts [3] - The total electricity consumption in China is expected to reach 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with a growth rate of around 6% [3] - Recommendations have been made to focus on investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly in light of potential supply pressures during peak periods [3]

在能源结构持续向低碳化、安全性与稳定性并重的背景下，核电作为重要的清洁基荷能源正重回政策与 资本的双重焦点。2024年，在传统能源承压、新能源竞争加剧的大环境下，中国核电(601985.SH)交出 了一份稳健中有增长、扩张中控节奏的财报，展现出作为"清洁能源央企梯队中第二核心资产"的长期潜 力。 营收稳中有升，现金流优异，盈利能力保持韧性 根据公司2024年年报，中国核电全年实现营业收入772.72亿元，同比增长3.09%；实现利润总额225.64 亿元，同比微降1.82%；净利润为165.53亿元，其中归属于母公司股东的净利润为87.77亿元，同比下降 17.38%。尽管盈利短期承压，但整体仍维持在历史高位，显示出良好的基本盘和管理韧性。 这一"高位稳住"的表现，是否意味着公司穿越周期的能力已被市场低估？从长期视角看，中国核电的盈 利节奏值得重新审视。 从图中可以看出，中国核电近十年归母净利润整体呈"阶梯式上行"。2015至2019年，公司每年都在稳步 增长，节奏不急不躁，却非常扎实，体现了电力运营央企在政策、电价与成本周期变化中的强抗压能 力；2020年起，公司进入新一轮装机投产周期，盈利水平迎来明显抬升 ...