Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report maintains a view of buying precious metals on dips. The precious metals market may follow the safe - haven logic under the escalation of the tariff trade war or the logic of enhanced interest - rate cuts when tariff concerns ease. The mid - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but London gold has been in a range - bound oscillation since late April. The short - term focus is on the battle around the 3300 area for gold, with support at 3200 and resistance at 3365 and then 3400; for London silver, the support is in the 36 - 36.2 area, strong support at 35.3, and resistance at 37 - 37.3. The operation strategy is still to buy on pullbacks [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market saw gold oscillate and silver adjust. The U.S. dollar index oscillated weakly, U.S. bond yields decreased significantly, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin rose, crude oil oscillated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index declined. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3322.5 per ounce, up 0.17%; U.S. silver 2509 contract closed at $36.605 per ounce, down 0.39%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 766.82 yuan per gram, down 1%; SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 8899 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% [2]. - The Fed's June FOMC meeting minutes showed increased differences among officials regarding the prospect of interest - rate cuts. Most officials believed that tariffs might continuously push up inflation, while a few were willing to consider an interest - rate cut at the next meeting. The reasons for the differences were the uncertainty of tariff policies and their impact on inflation, as well as the government's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations have slightly increased overall. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in July is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 6.7%. In September, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 31.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 64.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 4.5%. In October, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 10.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 42%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 44.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 3% [3]. - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.86 tons to 947.37 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 31.9 tons to 14966.24 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 13.8 tons to 1320.9 tons, and as of the week ending July 4, SGX silver inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 1319.9 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - On Thursday at 21:00, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. - On Friday at 02:30, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak on the U.S. economic outlook [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot contracts, as well as the gold - silver ratio of CME and the price differences between SHFE and TD [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, SHFE gold and silver positions, and SPDR gold and SLV silver positions [15][16]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the U.S. dollar index, U.S. dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Index, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year U.S. bond yield, 10 - year U.S. real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year U.S. bond yield spread [22].

Group 1 - The A-share financial sector has seen a significant rally, with notable increases in stocks such as Nanhua Futures, which has achieved two consecutive trading limits [1] - Other companies that experienced gains include Yuexiu Capital, China National Petroleum Capital, Hongye Futures, Bohai Leasing, and Shaanxi Guotou A [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a pullback after initially rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 3500 points, closing at 3493.05, down 0.13% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10581.80, down 0.06%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.16% to 2184.67 [2] - Total market turnover reached 15.274 billion, an increase of 528 million from the previous trading day [2] Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector showed strong performance, with notable gains in banking, futures, and brokerage stocks [3] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) closed up 1.16%, reaching a historical high with a market capitalization of 2.8 trillion [3] - The recent rally in the banking sector is attributed to three main factors: the appeal of bank dividends in a low-interest environment, increased capital inflow from public funds, and accelerated conversion of bank bonds [3] Cultural and Media Sector Dynamics - The cultural and media sector was notably active, particularly in the short drama and gaming segments, with stocks like Fengshang Culture and Zhongwen Online seeing significant gains [5] - The short drama market is experiencing explosive growth, with current annual market size estimated between 30 billion to 35 billion, expected to exceed 50 billion next year [5] - The film industry is also showing positive trends, with box office revenues reaching 30 billion by July 8, marking the fastest pace in five years [5] Market Outlook - Analysts maintain a positive outlook for A-shares, with expectations of a steady upward trend despite recent fluctuations [6] - The potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in Q3 and a loosening of domestic monetary policy could enhance asset valuations [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive structural changes in the market, benefiting both technology and cyclical sectors [6]

Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated July 9, 2025, focusing on industrial silicon and polysilicon [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerated elimination of backward production capacity, with persistent supply - surplus pressure. Supply will increase due to lower electricity costs in the wet season, while downstream demand is insufficient. Short - term inventory has decreased, but remains at a historical high. The industry faces significant adjustment pressure. Recommended strategies are SI2509 - SI2512 positive spread arbitrage and long SI2508 - short PS2511 [4] Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is influenced by both fundamental and "anti - involution" logics. Fundamentally, lower raw material prices and expected lower electricity costs may boost production capacity, but demand growth is limited after the H1 PV installation rush. High inventory persists. If effective industry integration occurs, it could reverse the current situation. The recommended strategy is PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread arbitrage [10] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 8140 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous period; trading volume is 1153446 lots, down 32.44%; open interest is 399029 lots, up 3.08%. SI09 - 11 spread is 55 yuan/ton, up 22.22%; SI11 - 12 spread is - 310 yuan/ton, up 4.62% [14][16] Spot Data - Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions remain stable. The basis of East China 553 is 535 yuan/ton, down 24.11%; the basis of East China 421 is 835 yuan/ton, down 16.92%. The price difference between East China 421 and 553 is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [18] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Total warehouse receipts are 50792 lots, down 285 lots (1.27%). Warehouse receipts in some regional delivery warehouses have changed slightly [25] Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 39270 yuan/ton, up 2.31%; trading volume is 794464 lots, up 25.24%; open interest is 97187 lots, down 12.09%. PS08 - 09 spread is 400 yuan/ton, up 63.27%; PS08 - 11 spread is 810 yuan/ton, up 70.53%; PS09 - 11 spread is 410 yuan/ton, up 78.26%; PS11 - 12 spread is - 2135 yuan/ton, up 15.61% [28][30] Spot Data - Spot prices of some polysilicon products are stable, while N - type polysilicon price index and some other products have increased slightly. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index is 40 yuan/kg, up 3.36% [35] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 730 yuan/ton, up 131.75%. Warehouse receipts in various regions remain unchanged [42][44] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high - inventory situations, short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio) to lock in profits and prevent inventory impairment. Also, buy out - of - the - money put options [2] Procurement Management - When there is a risk of rising raw material prices, buy long - term futures contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2]

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/07/09 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 严志妮：Z0022076 张泫：F03118257 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 780-900 | 31.17% | 60.79% | | 焦炭 | 1350-1500 | 23.97% | 44.10% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存套保 | 焦炭盘面大幅升水现货，交割利润可观 | 多 | 做空J2509 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1425-1450 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1450-1500 | source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | ...

Report Overview - Report title: Nanhua Precious Metals Daily Report: Gold Down, Silver Stable [1] - Report date: July 9, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, but London gold has been range - bound since late April. In the short term, attention should be paid to the battle around the 3300 area for gold, with support at 3200 and resistance at 3365 and then 3400. For London silver, support is at 36.4, strong support at 35.3, and resistance at 37 - 37.3. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market saw gold decline and silver remain stable. The tariff trade war situation became clearer before July 9, and the negotiation window was extended to August 1, weakening gold's safe - haven demand. COMEX gold 2508 closed at $3311 per ounce, down 0.95%; SHFE gold 2510 closed at 776.22 yuan per gram, up 0.43%. COMEX silver 2509 closed at $36.925 per ounce, up 0.06%; SHFE silver 2510 closed at 8953 yuan per kilogram, up 0.22%. The US trade policy has drawn responses from many countries [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations are generally stable. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and 4.7% for a 25 - basis - point cut. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 34.3%, 62.8% for a 25 - basis - point cut, and 3% for a 50 - basis - point cut. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.15 tons to 946.51 tons, while iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 66.41 tons to 14935.15 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 4 tons to 1334.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 1319.9 tons as of July 4 [3] This Week's Focus - This week's data is light. Key events include the Fed's release of monetary policy meeting minutes at 2:00 on Thursday, a speech by 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Mousalem on the US economy and monetary policy at 21:00 on Thursday, and a speech by 2027 FOMC voter, San Francisco Fed President Daly on the US economic outlook at 02:30 on Friday [4] Precious Metals Price Table - SHFE gold main contract closed at 776.22 yuan per gram, up 0.64%; CME gold main contract closed at $3311 per ounce, down 1.06%. SHFE silver main contract closed at 8953 yuan per kilogram, up 0.91%; CME silver main contract closed at $36.925 per ounce, down 0.04%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 89.6682, down 1.02% [7] Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory was 21,558 kilograms, up 0.48%; CME gold inventory was 1146.9974 tons, up 0.43%. SHFE gold positions were 179,131 lots, up 1.92%. SHFE silver inventory was 1334.731 tons, up 0.3%; CME silver inventory was 15487.4574 tons, down 0.07%. SHFE silver positions were 338,144 lots, up 47.35% [17][18] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index was 97.5101, down 0.04%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1803, up 0.09%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44,406.36 points, down 0.94%. WTI crude oil spot was $67.93 per barrel, up 2.15%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.4%, up 1.15% [23]

Core Viewpoint - The event organized by the Shandong Futures Association aims to enhance communication and cooperation among futures companies, focusing on high-quality development and service to the real economy, in line with national policies [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Shandong Futures Association organized a learning exchange activity involving over 20 representatives from local futures companies, visiting Zhejiang-based firms to share experiences and strategies [1]. - The event was guided by the Shandong Securities Regulatory Bureau and aimed to build a communication bridge for mutual learning and development among futures institutions [1]. Group 2: Company Strategies and Insights - Hu Jun, Chairman of Zhejiang Merchants Futures, emphasized compliance as a cornerstone for sustainable development, focusing on research and innovation to simplify futures trading through technology integration [3]. - Jia Xiaolong, General Manager of Nanhua Futures, highlighted the company's commitment to serving national strategies and local economies, developing overseas business and wealth management as dual engines for growth [3]. - Ma Zhiwei, General Manager of Yong'an Futures, stated the company's mission of "finance for good, futures for reality," outlining three strategic focuses: commodity investment banking, asset allocation expertise, and leadership in international business [3]. Group 3: Outcomes and Future Directions - The Shandong delegation engaged in discussions on key topics such as serving the real economy, empowering rural revitalization, and fostering industry culture, gaining insights from Zhejiang's advanced practices in strategic determination and social responsibility [4]. - Participants expressed that the event broadened their perspectives and inspired innovative service models, reinforcing the importance of collaboration in contributing to national strategies and economic development [4]. - The Shandong Futures Association plans to continue enhancing work efficiency and service levels under the guidance of the Shandong Securities Regulatory Bureau, aiming to support member development and contribute to China's modernization journey [4].

Group 1 - Major financial stocks, including securities, banks, and diversified financials, are experiencing a collective surge [1] - Dazhihui has achieved two consecutive trading limits, indicating strong market interest [1] - Yuexiu Capital has reached its daily limit, while Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank have set new highs [1] Group 2 - First Capital and Yong'an Futures have increased by over 5%, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] - Other companies such as Nanhua Futures, Xiangcai Shares, and GF Securities are also seeing gains [1]

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 美国时间 2025 年 7 月 7 日，公司境外全资孙公司 Nanhua USA LLC 收到芝加 哥期权交易所清算所（以下简称"Cboe clear"）的通知，获批成为 Cboe clear 清算会员，具备其清算资格，可以清算 Cboe clear 上市的期货期权和相关产品。 特此公告。 证券代码：603093 证券简称：南华期货 公告编号：2025-047 南华期货股份有限公司关于境外孙公司 获得芝加哥期权交易所清算所清算会员资格的公告 南华期货股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 7 月 9 日 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Group 2: Report's Core View - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but since late April, London gold has been trading in a range. For London gold, short - term support levels are at 3300 - 3320 and then 3200, with resistance at 3365 and then 3400. For London silver, support is at 36.4, strong support at 35.3, and resistance at 37 - 37.3. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market was highly volatile. The U.S. stock market declined, while the U.S. Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index both rose. Bitcoin fell, crude oil rose, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals index declined. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3346.4 per ounce, up 0.1%; U.S. silver 2509 contract closed at $36.94 per ounce, down 0.39%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 771.3 yuan per gram, down 0.54%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8872 yuan per kilogram, down 0.5% [2]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 61.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 2.9%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 13.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 39.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 1.8%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 947.66 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 14868.7 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9 tons to 1330.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 34.6 tons to 1323.2 tons in the week ending June 27 [3]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week's economic data is relatively light. The main focus is on the determination of U.S. tariff rates on other countries before the end of the U.S. reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9. Key events include the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision on Tuesday at 12:30, the Fed's release of its monetary policy meeting minutes on Thursday at 2:00, a speech by 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at 21:00 on Thursday, a speech by 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly on the U.S. economic outlook at 02:30 on Friday. Also, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio will visit Japan this week [4]. 4. Precious Metal Price Data - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 771.3 yuan per gram, down 0.74%. SGX gold TD is at 767.8 yuan per gram, down 0.49%. CME gold main contract is at $3346.4 per ounce, up 0.31%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 8872 yuan per kilogram, down 0.53%. SGX silver TD is at 8860 yuan per kilogram, down 0.28%. CME silver main contract is at $36.94 per ounce, down 0.53%. SHFE - TD gold is at 3.5 yuan per gram, down 36.25%. SHFE - TD silver is at 12 yuan per kilogram, up 126.67%. CME gold - to - silver ratio is 90.5901, up 0.58% [6][7]. 5. Inventory and Position Data - SHFE gold inventory is 21456 kilograms, unchanged. CME gold inventory is 1142.0304 tons, down 0.19%. SHFE gold position is 175760 lots, up 0.41%. SPDR gold position is 947.66 tons, unchanged. SHFE silver inventory is 1330.695 tons, down 0.68%. CME silver inventory is 15499.0707 tons, down 0.2%. SGX silver inventory is 1323.225 tons, down 2.55%. SHFE silver position is 229481 lots, down 8.47%. SLV silver position is 14868.735488 tons, unchanged [17][18]. 6. Other Market Data - The U.S. dollar index is at 97.5464, up 0.58%. The U.S. dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1741, up 0.76%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 44828.53 points, up 0.77%. WTI crude oil spot is at $66.5 per barrel, down 0.75%. LmeS copper 03 is at $9852 per ton, down 1%. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield is 4.35%, up 1.16%. The 10 - year U.S. real interest rate is 2.05%, up 1.49%. The 10 - 2 year U.S. Treasury yield spread is 0.47%, down 9.62% [23].