福斯特（603806.SH）2024 年年报点评 胶膜龙头优势显著，电子材料快速起量 2025 年 04 月 11 日 事件：2025 年 4 月 9 日，公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司实现营业收入 191.47 亿元，同比-15.23%；实现归母净利润 13.08 亿元，同比-29.33%；实 现扣非净利润 12.85 亿元，同比-25.13%。 24Q4 公司实现营业收入 39.73 亿元，同比-33.10%，环比-9.92%；实现归母 净利润 0.50 亿元，同比-88.18%，环比-84.97%；实现扣非净利润 0.64 亿元， 同比-82.84%，环比-79.85%。 ➢ 光伏胶膜业务量增价减，多重优势有望助力平稳穿越周期。2024 年公司光 伏胶膜销售量为 28.11 亿平米，同比增长 24.98%，实现收入 175.04 亿元，同 比下降 14.54%；胶膜业务毛利率为 14.72%，同比增长 0.12pct。2024 年，光 伏主产业链供给过剩矛盾凸显，导致全产业链价格持续下跌；光伏胶膜环节市 场格局较好，且公司技术研发实力、成本控制能力、海内外主流组件客户资源 等优势显著，20 ...

Macro Insights - The US March CPI data was weaker than expected, with core CPI month-on-month dropping from 0.23% in February to 0.06%, and year-on-year at 2.8%, below the expected 3.0% [2] - The overall CPI month-on-month fell from 0.22% in February to -0.05%, with year-on-year CPI decreasing to 2.4%, both below expectations [2] - Despite the cooling inflation in March, market reactions were muted due to ongoing concerns about tariffs and their impacts, with little change in Fed rate cut expectations [2] Tariff Policy Analysis - On April 9, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of the reciprocal tariff plan, while imposing a 10% tariff on countries outside China, Mexico, and Canada, and increasing the reciprocal tariff on China to 145% [3] - Tariffs are expected to remain a frequently adjusted tool in Trump's negotiations, with potential for further increases against countries perceived as unfavorable [3] - The market may gradually become desensitized to tariff policy changes, with uncertainty becoming a new norm [3] Energy Price Impact - In March, China's CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, lower than the expected 0%, while PPI was -2.5%, also below expectations [4] - The decline in energy prices has contributed to the downward pressure on PPI, indicating a broader economic impact [4] Fixed Income Market Trends - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose sharply from 4.0% to around 4.5%, despite weakening economic fundamentals [5] - The bond market's significant adjustment occurred without drastic changes in macroeconomic data, raising investor concerns [6] Energy Sector Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission released a plan for upgrading coal power plants to enhance flexibility, indicating a market potential of 100-200 billion yuan annually [9] - Companies like Dongfang Electric are recommended due to their involvement in this transition [9] Aviation and Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is seen as a key area for investment, with potential market space reaching trillions, driven by regulatory changes and advancements in eVTOL technology [10] Company-Specific Insights - Chongqing Bank is covered for the first time with a buy/hold rating, targeting a PB of 0.70/0.47, benefiting from the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [12] - Anta Sports reported strong Q1 performance with retail growth across brands, maintaining a buy rating due to competitive advantages [13] - Yutong Heavy Industries showed a 77% increase in new energy vehicle sales, with a robust cash flow supporting its growth outlook [13] - Pinggao Electric is expected to see significant profit growth due to high voltage business expansion, with a buy rating maintained [17] - Wanfu Biology's international business led to a 10.9% revenue increase, with a buy rating supported by stable cash flow and margin improvements [29]

Macro Strategy - The report suggests that the depreciation of the RMB against the USD may be a response to overseas risk events and a proactive measure to release risks in currency management, with a gradual approach expected in the depreciation process [1][12] - The expected range for USDCNY is projected to gradually rise to 7.40-7.50, indicating a controlled release of risks while maintaining a stable exchange rate [12] Fixed Income - The report on Weicai Convertible Bond indicates an expected listing price range of 112.72 to 125.13 RMB, with a subscription rate of 0.0046% and a conversion premium of approximately 35% [2][14] - The report on Anji Convertible Bond anticipates a listing price range of 109.63 to 122.00 RMB, with a subscription rate of 0.0037% and a conversion premium of around 28% [3][15] - The report on Qingyuan Convertible Bond expects a listing price range of 100.22 to 111.65 RMB, with a subscription rate of 0.0020% and a conversion premium of about 25% [3][17] Industry Analysis - The engineering machinery sector is entering an upward cycle, with a projected 2-3 years of growth ahead, supported by significant share buybacks from major companies like Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG [20][21] - The report highlights a 38% year-on-year increase in domestic excavator sales in Q1 2025, indicating strong market demand and potential for upward valuation adjustments [21] - The engineering machinery companies have low exposure to the US market, with Sany's exposure at approximately 3%, making the overall risk manageable [21] Company Insights - Pengding Holdings reported a revenue of 35.14 billion RMB and a net profit of 3.62 billion RMB for 2024, with significant growth in the automotive and server sectors [5][22] - The company is expanding its production capacity with a projected capital expenditure of 5 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting confidence in future market demand [6][22] - The report on Jerey Co. indicates a projected net profit of 3.03 billion RMB for 2025, with a focus on overseas expansion despite tariff risks [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to intense competition in the photovoltaic supply chain and falling prices of encapsulant materials, but anticipates a recovery in 2025 as excess capacity is cleared and prices stabilize [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 19.147 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.308 billion yuan, down 29.3% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 3.973 billion yuan, with a significant decline of 33.1% quarter-on-quarter and 9.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company's 2024 encapsulant revenue decreased by 15% to 17.5 billion yuan, despite a 24.98% increase in sales volume to 2.81 billion square meters [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global photovoltaic industry faced an imbalance in supply and demand in 2024, leading to a continuous decline in prices across the entire supply chain [2]. - The average price of encapsulant materials fell from 7.3 yuan per square meter in Q1 2024 to 6.2 yuan per square meter in Q4 2024 [2]. - The company’s market share in the encapsulant segment increased to over 50% despite the price decline [2]. Group 3: Product Segments - The company reported a revenue of 593 million yuan from photosensitive dry film in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.72%, driven by demand from sectors like electric vehicles and AI servers [3]. - Revenue from aluminum-plastic film reached 133 million yuan, up 16.17% year-on-year, benefiting from the expansion of demand in electric vehicles and consumer electronics [3]. - The company is expanding its customer base in the digital, energy storage, and power battery sectors, which is expected to drive further growth in the future [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.46 billion yuan and 3.31 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting an increase of 11.6% and 9.6% from previous estimates [4]. - The target price for the company has been adjusted to 23.5 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 25x for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].

证券研究报告 福斯特 (603806 CH) 胶膜量增价减，感光膜快速起量 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 10 日│中国内地 | 电源设备 | 公司公布 24 年业绩：2024 全年公司实现营收 191.47 亿元（同比-15.2%）， 归母净利 13.08 亿元，（同比-29.3%），扣非净利 12.83 亿元（同比-25.1%）； 其中 24Q4 营收为 39.73 亿元，同环比-33.1/-9.9%，归母净利 0.50 亿元， 同环比-88.2%/-85.0%，扣非净利 0.64 亿元，同环比-82.8/-79.8%。公司年 报业绩低于我们预期（归母 16.23 亿元），主要系 24 年光伏供给侧竞争激烈， 胶膜价格持续下跌所致，我们预计 25 年胶膜环节尾部产能出清进程将加速 完成，胶膜价格有望企稳回升，看好公司龙头地位进一步加强和盈利能力提 升，维持"买入"评级。 胶膜：24 年光伏"内卷"引致量增价减，25 年产能出清有望加速 2024 年全球光伏产能失衡叠加需求增速放缓，全产业链价格持续下跌，同 时电 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid development in its second growth curve, with a 38% year-on-year increase in the shipment of photosensitive dry film, and is expected to maintain high growth in 2025 [3] - The electronic materials business is diversifying, with projected revenue of 740 million yuan and profit of 43 million yuan in 2024, alongside a 29% increase in aluminum-plastic film shipments [3] - The company is focusing on high-end product demands, particularly in the AI and chip packaging substrate sectors, which is expected to contribute to a growth rate of over 30% in 2025 [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 22.589 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.66%, while 2024 is expected to see a decline of 15.23% to 19.147 billion yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.850 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 1.308 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 29.33% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop from 0.71 yuan in 2023 to 0.50 yuan in 2024, with a projected recovery to 0.62 yuan in 2025 [1] - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.630 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 24.66% compared to 2024 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 25.00 for 2024, decreasing to 20.05 in 2025 and further to 14.67 in 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid development in its second growth curve, with a 38% year-on-year increase in the shipment of photosensitive dry film, and is expected to maintain high growth in 2025 [3] - The electronic materials business is diversifying, with projected revenue of 740 million yuan and profit of 43 million yuan in 2024, alongside a 29% increase in aluminum-plastic film shipments [3] - The company is focusing on high-end product demands, particularly in AI and chip packaging substrate areas, which is expected to contribute to a growth rate of over 30% in 2025 [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 22,589 million yuan, with a projected decline of 15.23% in 2024, followed by a recovery with expected growth rates of 12.58%, 14.11%, and 14.08% in the subsequent years [1][12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,308 million yuan in 2024, down 29.33% from the previous year, with a recovery expected in 2025 to 1,630 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.66% [1][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.50 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.13 yuan by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [1][12] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 12.53 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 32,687.47 million yuan [7] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.00 for the current price and latest diluted earnings [1][12] Operational Efficiency - The company has significantly improved its operating cash flow, reporting 4,389 million yuan in 2024, a substantial year-on-year improvement [11] - Inventory levels have decreased by approximately 40% year-on-year, indicating better inventory management [11]

Group 1 - Foster (603806.SH) released its 2024 annual report on April 10, 2025, with 446 institutional investors holding a total of 1.743 billion shares, representing 66.80% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively hold 58.62% of the shares, with a decrease of 1.61 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] - The top ten institutional investors include notable entities such as Hangzhou Foster Technology Group Co., Ltd. and various funds from China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, 14 funds increased their holdings, accounting for 0.24% of the total, while 16 funds decreased their holdings, representing a 0.43% decline [2] - A total of 408 new public funds were disclosed this period, including notable funds like GF High-end Manufacturing Stock A and E Fund CSI 300 ETF [2] - 25 public funds were not disclosed in this period, including CITIC Construction Investment Low Carbon Growth Mixed A and other funds [2] Group 3 - In the social security fund sector, one fund, the National Social Security Fund 601 Combination, was not disclosed in this period [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][10]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 19.15 billion RMB, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.308 billion RMB, down 29% year-on-year [2]. - The company's photovoltaic film shipments increased by 25% to 2.81 billion square meters in 2024, showcasing its competitive advantages in technology, cost control, and overseas production capacity [3]. - The electronic materials business is experiencing rapid growth, with sales of photosensitive dry film increasing by 38% to 159 million square meters in 2024, indicating a strong demand recovery in the electronic circuit industry [4]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.72 billion, 2.01 billion, and 2.33 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a solid competitive position and growth potential in electronic materials [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 19.15 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 15.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.308 billion RMB, down 29.33% year-on-year [8]. - The diluted earnings per share for 2024 is 0.501 RMB, with a projected increase to 0.660 RMB in 2025 and 0.769 RMB in 2026 [8]. Business Segments - The photovoltaic film segment saw a shipment of 2.81 billion square meters in 2024, with domestic and overseas gross margins of 13.3% and 20.2% respectively [3]. - The electronic materials segment, particularly photosensitive dry films, is entering a growth phase, with significant sales increases and successful integration into major electronic circuit companies [4]. Cash Flow and Valuation - Operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 4.4 billion RMB in 2024, driven by better procurement and receivables management [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 19, 16, and 14 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to its earnings growth [5].

Core Insights - Foster (603806) reported a total revenue of 19.147 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.308 billion yuan, down 29.33% [1] - The company maintains a competitive edge in the photovoltaic film sector, but the photovoltaic backsheet business has significantly declined, while the electronic materials segment has emerged as a new growth driver [1][4] Photovoltaic Materials Business - The photovoltaic materials segment faced severe challenges in 2024, with photovoltaic film sales reaching 138.906 million square meters, an increase of 43.61%, and revenue of 9.878 billion yuan, up 3.79% [4] - Conversely, photovoltaic backsheet sales were only 6.778 million square meters, a decline of 18.26%, with revenue dropping to 414.7899 million yuan, down 43.53% [4] - The decline in the backsheet business highlights the company's vulnerability in certain segments of the photovoltaic supply chain, despite its leading position in photovoltaic film [4] - The global photovoltaic installation capacity growth has slowed, and the company plans to expand its product range and overseas capacity to address diverse battery and module technology needs [4] Electronic Materials Business - The electronic materials segment emerged as a highlight in the 2024 financial report, with photosensitive dry film sales reaching 73.665 million square meters, a growth of 35.83%, and revenue of 275.3727 million yuan, up 26.92% [5][6] - The PCB market is expected to enter a new growth cycle due to the acceleration of AI applications and the development of automotive intelligence [5][6] - The company has established a dual-base layout in East and South China and has formed partnerships with leading PCB companies, enhancing its competitive position in the electronic materials market [6] Functional Film Materials Business - The functional film materials segment showed steady performance, with aluminum-plastic film sales reaching 5.606 million square meters, a growth of 35.54%, and revenue of 58.9002 million yuan, up 26.52% [7] - The company is focusing on differentiated product development for RO support films, gaining recognition from downstream customers and achieving bulk sales [7] - Despite the steady growth, the functional film materials segment remains relatively small and contributes limitedly to overall performance, necessitating increased R&D investment and market expansion efforts [7] Overall Summary - Foster's 2024 annual report indicates significant pressure on the photovoltaic materials business, while the electronic materials segment has become a new growth point, and the functional film materials business is progressing steadily [7] - The company needs to focus on technological innovation, market expansion, and cost control to navigate the increasingly complex market environment [7]