Core Viewpoint - 吉祥航空 is facing significant operational challenges due to the ongoing maintenance of its Airbus A320neo aircraft, primarily caused by quality defects in the Pratt & Whitney PW1100G engines, which are expected to continue until 2026 [2][4][8]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, 吉祥航空 reported a revenue of 17.48 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.06% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.089 billion yuan, down 14.28% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company's cash flow situation is deteriorating, with long-term borrowings increasing by 46.58% year-on-year, indicating potential short-term cash flow pressures [3][12]. Operational Challenges - The maintenance of the engines has led to a reduction in domestic capacity, with a reported 6.9% decline in domestic capacity year-on-year for Q3 2025 [7][10]. - As of October 31, 2025, 吉祥航空 had 20 A320neo aircraft grounded for engine repairs, which constitutes about 20% of its fleet [6][7]. Strategic Adjustments - In response to the capacity constraints, 吉祥航空 has increased its international flight offerings, with a 16% year-on-year growth in international capacity for Q3 2025 [10]. - The airline plans to continue expanding its international routes, particularly focusing on European destinations, as part of its strategy to mitigate the impact of domestic capacity limitations [10][11]. Market Position - 吉祥航空 operates primarily in a competitive environment, facing challenges from both high-speed rail and other airlines, particularly in its main bases of Shanghai and Guangzhou [9][12]. - Despite the challenges, the airline remains optimistic about its core market and aims to optimize its route network to enhance profitability [10][12].

Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector experienced a slight decline of 0.13% on November 6, with HNA Holding leading the drop [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76, up 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13452.42, up 1.73% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the aviation sector showed mixed results, with the following notable performances: - China Southern Airlines (7.00, +0.86%, 424,900 shares, 297 million CNY) - China Eastern Airlines (4.96, +0.20%, 1,122,600 shares, 558 million CNY) - HNA Holding (1.80, -3.74%, 10,532,800 shares, 1.918 billion CNY) [1][2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 369 million CNY from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 200 million CNY [2][3] - The following stocks had significant capital flows: - China Southern Airlines: -32.63 million CNY from institutional investors, +3.14 million CNY from retail investors - HNA Holding: -38.95 million CNY from institutional investors, +12.38 million CNY from retail investors [3]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76 points, above the annual line, with a gain of 0.97% and a total trading volume of 20,759.04 billion yuan [1] - A total of 42 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1] Summary by Category Stock Performance - Han Yu Group, Rui Feng New Materials, and Jin Yi Technology have the highest deviation rates at 14.12%, 8.56%, and 6.10% respectively [1] - Other stocks like Feng Li Intelligent, Sheng Bang Shares, and Chongqing Department Store have just crossed the annual line with smaller deviation rates [1] Deviation Rate Rankings - The top three stocks with the highest deviation rates are: - Han Yu Group: 17.40% increase, 28.32% turnover rate, annual line at 14.31 yuan, latest price at 16.33 yuan, deviation rate of 14.12% [1] - Rui Feng New Materials: 9.47% increase, 2.80% turnover rate, annual line at 53.24 yuan, latest price at 57.80 yuan, deviation rate of 8.56% [1] - Jin Yi Technology: 6.52% increase, 4.78% turnover rate, annual line at 27.09 yuan, latest price at 28.74 yuan, deviation rate of 6.10% [1] Additional Notable Stocks - Other stocks with notable performance include: - Zhen Jiang Shares: 6.23% increase, deviation rate of 4.77% [1] - Hang Yu Wei: 6.66% increase, deviation rate of 4.43% [1] - Hua Feng Aluminum: 5.18% increase, deviation rate of 3.22% [1]

Market Performance - The aviation and airport sector increased by 1.32% on November 5, with Huaxia Airlines leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3969.25, up 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13223.56, up 0.37% [1] Stock Performance - Huaxia Airlines (002928) closed at 11.07, up 4.14% with a trading volume of 228,800 shares and a turnover of 250 million yuan [1] - HNA Holding (600221) closed at 1.87, up 3.31% with a trading volume of 13,966,000 shares and a turnover of 2.608 billion yuan [1] - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 55.48, up 2.42% with a trading volume of 8,650 shares and a turnover of 476 million yuan [1] - China National Aviation (601111) closed at 8.26, up 1.98% with a trading volume of 549,400 shares and a turnover of 451 million yuan [1] - China Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 6.94, up 1.17% with a trading volume of 381,400 shares and a turnover of 263 million yuan [1] - Xiamen Airport (600897) decreased by 2.48% to 17.28 with a trading volume of 262,600 shares [2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 118 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 131 million yuan [2][3] - Major stocks like HNA Holding and Huaxia Airlines had mixed capital flows, with HNA Holding seeing a net inflow of 108 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Retail investors contributed positively to the capital flow in several stocks, including China National Aviation and Shenzhen Airport [3]

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: Minsheng Securities has given a "recommend" rating to Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH, latest price: 12.91 yuan) based on several factors [1] Group 2 - Engine repair restrictions are limiting the company's capacity deployment, with an expected year-on-year decline of 1.4% in overall capacity by Q3 2025 [1] - In terms of unit profitability, the decrease in oil prices is offsetting the increase in non-oil costs due to aircraft downtime, and the focus on high-yield routes is helping the company achieve a relatively higher revenue growth [1] - Financial expenses are continuously improving, with interest expenses reduced by 230 million yuan in the first three quarters [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 17.48 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, which is approximately flat year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.09 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in profitability in Q3 2025 is primarily attributed to the maintenance of Pratt & Whitney engines, which limited the company's capacity deployment [2]. - The company is expected to recover its capacity in the medium to long term as maintenance issues are gradually resolved, providing significant recovery potential [2]. - The decrease in oil prices has partially alleviated cost pressures, although non-fuel costs have increased due to fixed costs not being diluted [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 580 million yuan, down 25% year-on-year [1]. - The overall capacity decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with domestic capacity down 6.9% and international capacity up 16% [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 19.5%, a decline of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased non-fuel costs [3]. Cost and Revenue Dynamics - The unit fuel cost decreased by 11% year-on-year, while non-fuel costs increased by 7.7% due to engine maintenance and aircraft grounding [3]. - The company focused its capacity on high-revenue routes, resulting in a slight decline in overall passenger revenue of 1.5% year-on-year, with domestic passenger revenue remaining stable [3]. Financial Outlook - The report projects a net profit of 1.05 billion yuan for 2025, down from previous estimates, with future projections of 1.79 billion yuan for 2026 and 2.75 billion yuan for 2027 [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in industry pricing and improved operational efficiency as financial expenses continue to decline [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the transportation industry [6] Core Insights - Crude oil freight rates have significantly increased, with the China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) rising to 2425.93 points, up 48.6% from October 23 [2][13] - The three major state-owned airlines in China reported collective profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, with Hainan Airlines becoming the most profitable domestic airline [15][16] - Jitu Express has launched the world's largest self-built logistics hub, which is expected to enhance logistics capabilities during the "Double 11" shopping festival [22][23] Industry Investment Opportunities - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Attention to the transportation demand increase driven by the construction of hydropower stations in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream, recommending Sichuan Chengyu, Chongqing Port, and Fulimin Transportation [4] - Investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending Gansu Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and others [4] - The cruise and water ferry sector presents thematic investment opportunities, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Shares [4] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Shares [4] - Investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending Air China, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [4] Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month, while year-on-year it has decreased [25] - Domestic freight volume for express delivery in September 2025 increased by 12.70% year-on-year, with revenue up by 7.20% [51] - In the first nine months of 2025, the total freight volume at national ports reached 1.3567 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [48]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic civil aviation industry in China is expected to turn profitable in 2024, with the three major state-owned airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) achieving profitability in the first three quarters of 2025 after years of losses [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance of Major Airlines - All three major state-owned airlines reported revenue growth and profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, benefiting from the summer travel peak and foreign exchange gains [2]. - Air China achieved a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan in the first three quarters, while China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines reported net profits of 2.10 billion yuan and 2.31 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The three major airlines had accumulated losses exceeding 200 billion yuan over the past five years, but signs of recovery are evident, with expectations for profitability in 2025 [3]. Group 2: International Market Growth - The international market has become a key growth area for major airlines, with significant increases in passenger turnover on international routes compared to domestic routes [4]. - For the first nine months of the year, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines reported international passenger turnover growth rates of 14.9%, 24.16%, and 19.54%, respectively, compared to domestic growth rates of 1.2%, 6.08%, and 4.10% [4]. - China Eastern Airlines has been actively expanding its international routes, including the launch of a new route from Shanghai to Buenos Aires, which will set a record for the longest single-route flight [4]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by Private Airlines - Private airlines such as Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines reported declines in net profit for the first three quarters, with Spring Airlines losing its title as the "most profitable airline" to Hainan Airlines [6]. - Despite increased flight and passenger volumes, many airlines are struggling to achieve profitability due to lower ticket prices driven by intense competition and market dynamics [7]. - The average ticket price has decreased significantly, with a drop of over 20% in February and more than 8% during the peak summer months, impacting overall profitability [7][8].

Core Insights - The domestic civil aviation industry in China is expected to turn profitable in 2024, with the three major state-owned airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) achieving profitability in the first three quarters of 2025 after years of losses [1][2][3] - Despite the overall recovery, low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines have reported declines in performance, with Spring Airlines losing its title as the "most profitable airline" to Hainan Airlines [1][6] - The international aviation market is becoming a key growth area for major airlines, with significant increases in international passenger turnover compared to domestic routes [4][5] Group 1: Financial Performance of Major Airlines - All three major airlines reported revenue growth and profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, benefiting from the summer travel peak and foreign exchange gains [2] - Air China achieved a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan in the first three quarters, while China Eastern and China Southern reported net profits of 2.10 billion yuan and 2.31 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The three major airlines have cumulatively lost over 200 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024, but signs of recovery are evident, with expectations for profitability in 2025 [3] Group 2: International Market Growth - The international passenger turnover for the three major airlines has significantly outpaced domestic turnover, with Air China's international turnover increasing by 14.9% compared to 1.2% for domestic [4] - China Eastern Airlines has been actively expanding its international routes, recently launching a new route that sets a record for the longest single-route flight [4] - China Southern Airlines has also reported improved international performance, with current metrics exceeding pre-pandemic levels [5] Group 3: Challenges Faced by Low-Cost Carriers - Both Juneyao Airlines and Spring Airlines experienced declines in net profit, with Spring Airlines' profitability affected despite increased revenue [6][7] - The competitive landscape remains challenging, with many airlines experiencing increased flight volumes but not corresponding profitability due to lower ticket prices [7] - The average ticket price has seen a significant decline, with prices dropping by over 20% in some months compared to the previous year, impacting overall revenue [7][8]

Core Insights - All seven listed airlines in China reported profits for the third quarter of 2025, with performance growth varying significantly among them [1][2] Group 1: Major Airlines Performance - The three major state-owned airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) generated over 140 billion yuan in revenue for Q3, a year-on-year increase of over 2%, and net profits exceeding 11 billion yuan, up over 10% [1][3] - For the first three quarters, the three major airlines collectively reported revenues of approximately 373.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 2%, and net profits exceeding 6.2 billion yuan, up over 90% [1][3] - China Eastern Airlines achieved a turnaround from losses to profits, while Air China and China Southern Airlines saw net profit increases of over 37% and 17%, respectively [2][4] Group 2: Private Airlines Performance - The four private airlines (Hainan Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines) reported combined revenues of over 35.3 billion yuan for Q3, with a year-on-year increase of over 2%, but net profits dropped by over 4% [1][5] - For the first three quarters, these private airlines generated revenues exceeding 93.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 3%, and net profits nearing 6.9 billion yuan, an 8% increase [1][6] - Hainan Airlines reported a significant increase in net profit, while Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines experienced declines of over 10% in net profits [4][10] Group 3: Financial Metrics - In Q3, Air China reported revenues of 49.07 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.68 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.31% in net profit [3] - China Eastern Airlines achieved revenues of 39.59 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.53 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 34.37% [3] - China Southern Airlines reported revenues of 51.37 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, marking a 20.26% increase in net profit [3] Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The aviation market is expected to maintain growth momentum in Q4, driven by increased travel demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with an anticipated 5% year-on-year growth in passenger volume [15] - Hainan Airlines is positioned to benefit from the upcoming full closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port, enhancing its market share in both passenger and cargo transport [10][11] - The competitive landscape remains challenging, with Air China highlighting the impact of non-operational factors such as reduced foreign exchange gains on its profitability [8][9]