Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with the rating maintained [2][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance continues to show strong growth, driven by the release of platform efficiencies and sustained high revenue growth [4][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [6][8]. - The report anticipates continued revenue growth, projecting revenues of 20.339 billion yuan in 2025, 24.666 billion yuan in 2026, and 29.840 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 28.41%, 21.28%, and 20.98% [4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's main revenue sources include the flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, which generated 13.304 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 28.49%, accounting for 84.08% of total revenue [6][8]. - The electrolyte drink segment saw significant growth, achieving 1.495 billion yuan in revenue, a remarkable increase of 280.37% [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 44.81%, an increase of 1.74% year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs and economies of scale [8]. Market Position and Expansion - Dongpeng Special Drink maintained its leading market share in China's energy drink market, with sales volume share increasing from 43.0% in 2023 to 47.9% in 2024 [6]. - The company has expanded its distribution channels significantly, with revenue from distributors, key accounts, and online channels growing by 37.28%, 57.59%, and 116.95% respectively [6][8]. - The number of active distributors increased to 3,193, a growth of 7.11%, with the average revenue per distributor rising to 4.26 million yuan, up 28.16% [6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 6.40 yuan in 2024, 8.41 yuan in 2025, and 10.27 yuan in 2026, reflecting strong growth in profitability [4][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 35.79 in 2024 to 22.30 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [4][8]. - The company plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to open new growth avenues [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has established a diversified product matrix with a focus on becoming a leading comprehensive beverage group, enhancing brand value and market competitiveness [6] - The flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, has shown steady growth, capturing a 47.9% market share in the energy drink segment, marking a 4.9 percentage point increase year-on-year [6] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for 2024, with total revenue reaching 15.839 billion yuan, a 40.63% increase year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 44.81%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material costs [6] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 21.00%, reflecting a 2.89 percentage point increase from the previous year [6] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 5.789 billion yuan, a 76.44% increase year-on-year [4] Market Position and Growth Strategy - The company is expanding its product offerings into electrolyte drinks, sugar-free tea, and large-packaged beverages, which supports product structure optimization [9] - The second growth curve, "Dongpeng Water," has entered the "billion-level product" category, with a sales volume share of 6.7%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company plans to deepen its national and omnichannel strategies while exploring international markets, including establishing a presence in Indonesia [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.456 billion yuan, 25.393 billion yuan, and 30.189 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.15%, 24.13%, and 18.89% [9] - Net profit projections for the same years are 4.427 billion yuan, 5.657 billion yuan, and 6.901 billion yuan, with growth rates of 33.06%, 27.80%, and 21.99% [9] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 26.9X for 2025, decreasing to 17.3X by 2027 [9]

东鹏饮料（605499.SH） 2024 年收入高增，2025 年稳中求进 2025 年 03 月 11 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/10 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 226.67 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 298.06/176.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,178.71 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,178.71 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.20 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.20 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 30.65 | 股价走势图 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 东鹏饮料 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024 年收入高增，新品亮眼—公司 信息更新报告》-2025.1.23 《开局良好，新品可期—公司信息更 新报告》-2024.4.23 《2023 年高速增长，2024 年势头良好 —公司信息更新报告》-2024.4.17 食品饮料/饮料乳品 张宇光（分析师） 方勇（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set for the next six months [5][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.84 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.33 billion yuan in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 40.63% and 63.09% respectively [1][4]. - The company aims for a revenue and net profit growth rate of no less than 20% in 2025, with specific expectations for its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, to continue stable growth [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the revenue breakdown includes 13.30 billion yuan from Dongpeng Special Drink, 1.50 billion yuan from electrolyte water, and 1.02 billion yuan from other beverages, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 28.49%, 280.37%, and 103.19% [2]. - The gross margin improved to 44.81%, and the net margin reached 21.00%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.74 and 2.89 percentage points respectively [2][4]. Market Position and Expansion - Dongpeng Special Drink holds a 47.9% market share in the energy drink segment, with a sales revenue share of 34.9%, marking an increase of 4.9 and 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company has expanded its distribution network, adding 212 new distributors, bringing the total to 3,193, and increasing active terminal points to nearly 4 million [2][3]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 30%, 25%, and 23% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 35%, 28%, and 25% for the same years [3][4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 8.65 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][17] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.63%, with a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [9][4] - The company is expanding its national presence in the energy drink sector, with a second revenue curve accounting for 16% of total revenue [10][4] - Cost optimization and scale effects have significantly improved profitability, with gross and net profit margins reaching 44.81% and 21.00%, respectively, in 2024 [11][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 158.39 billion yuan, a 40.63% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 33.27 billion yuan, which is a 63.09% increase [9][4] - The fourth quarter revenue was 32.81 billion yuan, up 25.12% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.19 billion yuan, increasing by 61.21% [9][4] - Cash received from sales in 2024 was approximately 204.30 billion yuan, reflecting a 46.98% increase [9][4] Product Segmentation - Revenue from different beverage categories in 2024 was 13.304 billion yuan from functional drinks, 1.495 billion yuan from "Water", and 1.023 billion yuan from other beverages, with respective growth rates of 28.49%, 280.37%, and 103.2% [10][4] - The company has achieved a 100% coverage rate in prefecture-level cities, with nearly 4 million sales outlets and 3,193 distributors [9][4] Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 44.81% and 21.00%, respectively, showing improvements of 1.74 and 2.89 percentage points year-on-year [11][4] - The sales, management, and financial expense ratios decreased to 16.93%, 2.69%, and -1.20%, respectively, benefiting from scale effects from high-growth products [11][4] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 201.70 billion yuan, 248.81 billion yuan, and 295.30 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.34%, 23.36%, and 18.68% [4][17] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are revised to 44.06 billion yuan, 57.25 billion yuan, and 71.18 billion yuan, with growth rates of 32.43%, 29.93%, and 24.33% [4][17]

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月11日 东鹏饮料（605499.SH） 优于大市 2024 年收入同比增长 41%，盈利能力提升 公司 2024 年收入同比增长 41%。东鹏饮料发布 2024 年年度报告，2024 年实现收入 158.39 亿元，同比增长 40.63%，归母净利润 33.27 亿元， 同比增长 63.09%。其中四季度营收 32.81 亿元，同比增长 25.12%；归母 净利润 6.19 亿元，同比增长 61.21%。回款方面，2024 年公司销售商品 收到的现金约 204.30 亿元，同比+46.98%；其中四季度回款 64.39 亿， 同比增长 74.4%。2024 年，公司已有 3193 家经销商，销售终端网点数 量近 400 万家，实现地级市覆盖率达到 100%，东鹏饮料全国化进程稳步 推进，在能量饮料行业的份额逐年提升。 特饮仍在加速全国化，第二曲线收入占比已达 16%。分品类看，2024 年特 饮/补水啦/其他饮料收入分别为 133.04/14.95/10.23 亿元，同比增长 28.49%/280.37%/103.2%，其中，补水啦通过延展口味、提高铺市率维 持高速增长；其他 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% year-on-year [4][10] - The product matrix of "dual engines + multiple categories" is gradually improving, with significant growth in both the Eastroc Energy Drink and the Eastroc Hydration product lines [10][11] - The company plans to expand its product offerings to include herbal teas and plant-based beverages, aligning with health trends in the industry [10] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 158.39 billion yuan, with a net profit of 33.27 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 32.62 billion yuan [4][5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 32.81 billion yuan, a 25.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.19 billion yuan, up 61.2% year-on-year [4][5] Product Performance - The Eastroc Energy Drink generated revenue of 133.04 billion yuan in 2024, a 28% increase year-on-year, accounting for 84.1% of total revenue [5] - The Eastroc Hydration product line achieved revenue of 14.95 billion yuan, a remarkable 280% increase year-on-year, capturing 9.5% of total revenue [5] - Other beverages contributed 10.2 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 103% year-on-year increase [5] Sales Channels - Revenue from distribution, key accounts, online, and other channels reached 136.1 billion, 17.4 billion, 4.5 billion, and 0.3 billion yuan respectively, with significant growth in online sales [6] - The number of active distributors exceeded 3,000, with nearly 4 million active sales points, supporting the company's channel expansion strategy [6][7] Regional Performance - Revenue by region in 2024: Guangdong (4.36 billion yuan), East China (2.20 billion yuan), Central China (2.07 billion yuan), Guangxi (1.15 billion yuan), Southwest (1.72 billion yuan), and North China (1.86 billion yuan), with notable growth in North China and Southwest regions [6][7] Profitability - The company's gross margin improved to 44.8% in 2024, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs [9] - The net profit margin reached 21.0%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [9] Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth of at least 20% in 2025, with net profit also expected to grow by at least 20% [11] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 4.483 billion yuan, with an EPS of 8.62 yuan [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 262.31, compared to the last closing price of 228.95 [1][10][19] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion, up 63.09% year-on-year [3][11] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 per share, totaling 1.3 billion [3] - The company is expected to maintain a revenue and profit growth target of no less than 20% for 2025 [10] Financial Performance - In Q4, the company reported a revenue of 3.281 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.12%, and a net profit of 619 million, up 61.21% year-on-year [3][4] - The overall sales revenue exceeded 20 billion, marking a 47% increase year-on-year [4] - The gross profit margin increased by 1.7 percentage points to 44.8% for the year, with a net profit margin reaching a historical high of 21.0% [9][10] Product Performance - The company's flagship energy drink, Dongpeng Special Drink, achieved a market share increase of 4.9 percentage points to 47.9% [4] - The new product "Brew Water" saw an extraordinary growth rate of 280%, becoming a billion-level product within two years [4] Regional Expansion - The company experienced significant growth in various regions, with the North region showing an 83.9% increase in revenue [5] - The number of active sales points grew to nearly 4 million, a 17.6% increase year-on-year [5] Future Outlook - The company aims for revenue projections of 20.653 billion, 25.503 billion, and 30.136 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding profit targets of 4.366 billion, 5.454 billion, and 6.331 billion [11][15] - The company is also pursuing international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a focus on the energy drink market [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the company, indicating a performance expectation in line with the benchmark index [10]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with operating income expected to rise from 15,838.85 million in 2024 to 30,579.52 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.10% [5]. - The net profit is forecasted to increase from 3,326.43 million in 2024 to 6,665.50 million in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The report highlights a stable gross margin, projected to remain around 45.80% from 2026 to 2027, suggesting effective cost management [5]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 43.27% in 2024 to 27.50% in 2027, reflecting a potential increase in equity base due to retained earnings [5]. Financial Summary Balance Sheet - Total assets are projected to grow from 22,676.30 million in 2024 to 47,275.73 million by 2027, indicating robust asset accumulation [4]. - Current liabilities are expected to increase from 14,845.04 million in 2024 to 22,893.14 million in 2027, which may impact liquidity ratios [4]. Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is anticipated to decrease from 5,789.41 million in 2024 to 4,634.76 million in 2025, before recovering to 8,473.49 million by 2027 [4]. - The net cash increase is projected to rise significantly from 453.09 million in 2024 to 7,652.03 million in 2027, indicating improved cash management [4]. Income Statement - The operating profit is expected to grow from 4,144.77 million in 2024 to 8,229.02 million in 2027, showcasing strong operational efficiency [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 6.40 in 2024 to 12.82 in 2027, reflecting the company's profitability growth [5]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 35.79 in 2024 to 17.86 in 2027, suggesting a potentially more attractive valuation over time [5]. - The asset-liability ratio is projected to decline from 66.08% in 2024 to 48.72% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, suggesting a focus on optional consumption and service consumption price performance, particularly in the context of the recent recovery in trading sentiment [1][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a gradual decline in its economic climate, with expectations hinging on actual consumption performance validating recent policy implementations [1][7]. - The report highlights that the price stability of premium liquor, particularly the slight recovery in the price of Feitian Moutai, is positively impacting channel profits and asset expectations [1][8]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming performance period will primarily focus on clearing inventory, with expectations for improved feedback from channels and liquor companies as the spring festival approaches [8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector's PE-TTM is approximately 20X, positioned at the 13th percentile over the past three years and the 8th percentile over the past five years, indicating it is still in a cyclical bottom range [2][8]. - The report suggests focusing on cyclical stocks with potential catalysts, including national brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from robust consumer demand [2][8]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is showing signs of recovery, with categories like sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and protein drinks experiencing strong growth [3][9]. - East Peak's annual report indicates a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% [3][9]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive, with new channels and product innovations driving growth, despite market expectations of a slowdown in Q1 [10]. - The report highlights the potential for high growth in 2025 through category exploration and channel expansion, recommending companies like Weilang and Yanjin Puzhou [10]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with the seasoning segment performing relatively well due to the trend of restaurant chain standardization [11]. - The report suggests that as restaurant consumption policies strengthen, related sectors may see significant performance elasticity and valuation improvements, recommending stocks like Angel Yeast and Qingdao Beer [11].