Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes in civil aviation [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to improved vacation policies and anti-monopoly measures in online travel agencies (OTAs) [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold market, as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Industry Updates - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, urging local governments to enhance policy design and support measures [4]. - As of January 29, 2026, domestic flight ticket bookings for the Spring Festival exceeded 7.16 million, with a daily average increase of approximately 16% year-on-year [4]. - Retail sector insights indicate a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, showing signs of recovery compared to a significant decline in 2024 [4]. Company Performance Forecasts - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. forecasts a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - The report includes various companies with "Accumulate" ratings, such as Zhou Dafu, Cai Bai Co., and others, with detailed profit forecasts and valuation metrics [5].

作者：行情君 本文源自：市场资讯 2月1日10点，国际金价报4860.3美元/盎司，国际钯金报1698.5美元/盎司，国际银价报84.42美元/盎司， 国内金价报1125.0元/克。 根据国内主要品牌金店报价，周大福价格最高为1625元/克，老凤祥价格最低为1498元/克；周生生今日 黄金价格1618元/克，六福珠宝今日黄金价格1625元/克，谢瑞麟今日黄金价格1625元/克，金至尊今日黄 金价格1625元/克，潮宏基今日黄金价格1625元/克，菜百首饰今日黄金价格1552元/克，老庙黄金今日黄 金价格1546元/克，中国黄金今日黄金价格1552元/克，周六福今日黄金价格1620元/克。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月30日 优于大市 菜百股份（605599.SH） 2025 年归母净利润预计增长 47%-71%，投资金+金饰品双推动 事项： 公司公告：公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告，预计实现归母净利润 10.6-12.3 亿元，同比增长 47.43%-71.07%， 扣非归母净利润 9.52-11.22 亿元，同比增长 39.16%-64.03%。 国信零售观点：1）单四季度看，预计归母净利润 4.13-5.83 亿元，同比增长 150.48%-253.52%。扣非归母 净利润 3.66-5.36 亿元，同比增长 130.25%-237.08%。2）分产品看，占比较高的贵金属投资产品受益于金 价持续增长、菜百首饰在华北地区的知名度，预计实现较快增长。此外，首饰金在产品创新和消费复苏下 预计亦实现正增长，维持毛利率的韧性。3）实际上，公司投资金毛利率较低，整体收入占比提升对整体 毛利率有所压力。但目前来看，公司投资金产品也在积极创新，开发贺岁金条、IP 联名金条等产品，毛利 率相对较高。此外，首饰金在菜百总店二层开设了"菜百典藏"专区，销售古法、金镶钻等高毛利率产品， 不断推动产品结构优 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for gold in Beijing is high, with long queues forming outside the Beijing Caibai Department Store, indicating strong investor interest in gold products. However, experts warn of potential risks due to rapid price increases and market volatility [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Activity - The bustling scene at Beijing Caibai has become a daily occurrence, with many investors queuing early to secure favorable first transaction prices, which are closely linked to international gold price movements [2][3]. - The store features multiple floors dedicated to gold trading, and the high foot traffic reflects a consistent interest from both new and returning customers, driven by various motivations including speculation, wealth preservation, and wedding needs [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - While many investors are optimistic about gold prices, some are cautious due to concerns about high current prices and limited funds, leading them to adopt a wait-and-see approach [3][4]. - Younger investors are torn between purchasing traditional gold and investment gold bars, with some viewing gold as a hedge against inflation and a means to prepare for future financial needs [3][4]. Group 3: Price Volatility and Risks - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have raised concerns, with significant declines noted in both COMEX and domestic gold futures, prompting analysts to advise caution and risk management strategies for investors [6][7]. - Analysts suggest diversifying investments across different gold products, such as ETFs and physical gold, to mitigate risks associated with price volatility [6][7].

风险提示：金价持续下行，门店扩张不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 16,552 | 20,233 | 29,573 | 38,012 | 41,778 | | (+/-)% | 50.6% | 22.2% | 46.2% | 28.5% | 9.9% | | 净利润(归母) | 707 | 719 | 1,204 | 1,524 | 1,689 | | (+/-)% | 53.6% | 1.7% | 67.5% | 26.5% | 10.8% | | 每股净收益(元) | 0.91 | 0.92 | 1.55 | 1.96 | 2.17 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 18.7% | 18.1% | 25.1% | 26.2% | 24.0% | | 市盈率(现价&最新股本摊薄) | 23.19 | 22.79 | 13.61 | 10.75 | 9.70 | 股票研究 /[Table ...

事项： 公司公告：公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告，预计实现归母净利润 10.6-12.3 亿元，同比增长 47.43%-71.07%， 扣非归母净利润 9.52-11.22 亿元，同比增长 39.16%-64.03%。 国信零售观点：1）单四季度看，预计归母净利润 4.13-5.83 亿元，同比增长 150.48%-253.52%。扣非归母 净利润 3.66-5.36 亿元，同比增长 130.25%-237.08%。2）分产品看，占比较高的贵金属投资产品受益于金 价持续增长、菜百首饰在华北地区的知名度，预计实现较快增长。此外，首饰金在产品创新和消费复苏下 预计亦实现正增长，维持毛利率的韧性。3）实际上，公司投资金毛利率较低，整体收入占比提升对整体 毛利率有所压力。但目前来看，公司投资金产品也在积极创新，开发贺岁金条、IP 联名金条等产品，毛利 率相对较高。此外，首饰金在菜百总店二层开设了"菜百典藏"专区，销售古法、金镶钻等高毛利率产品， 不断推动产品结构优化。 总体上而言，在金价预期中长期上行的背景下，公司投资金产品持续受益。产品端持续升级，在保持收入 增长的同时支撑公司毛利水平。门店拓展亦稳步推进，超 1 ...

公 司 研 金价上行投资金高增，持续受益黄金税收新政 菜百股份(605599) 菜百股份 2025 年业绩预告点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | 本报告导读： 投资要点： 风险提示：金价持续下行，门店扩张不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 16,552 | 20,233 | 29,573 | 38,012 | 41,778 | | (+/-)% | 50.6% | 22.2% | 46.2% | 28.5% | 9.9% | ...

Core Insights - The article highlights significant profit forecasts for various companies in 2025, indicating a trend of recovery and growth across multiple sectors, with some companies projecting substantial increases in net profit compared to the previous year. Company Performance Forecasts - **Beimo High-Tech**: Expected net profit for 2025 is between 190 million to 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1076.16% to 1261.87% [2] - **Jiangfeng Electronics**: Plans to acquire control of Kaide Quartz, with stock suspension starting January 30 [3] - **ST Aowei**: Received a notice of termination of listing due to market capitalization falling below 500 million yuan for 20 consecutive trading days [4] - **GaoDe Infrared**: Forecasted net profit of 700 million to 900 million yuan for 2025, recovering from a loss of 447 million yuan in the previous year [6] - **Bingchuan Network**: Expected net profit of 436 million to 516 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 247 million yuan [6] - **BlueFocus**: Anticipated net profit of 180 million to 220 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 291 million yuan [7] - **Godewei**: Projected net profit of 125 million to 162 million yuan, turning from loss to profit [6] - **Zhongyida**: Expected net profit of 51.23 million yuan, recovering from a loss [8] - **Helin Micro-Nano**: Forecasted net profit of 26 million to 33 million yuan, turning from loss to profit [8] - **Zhongke Sanhuan**: Expected net profit of 80 million to 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 566.23% to 899.35% [9] - **Beilu Pharmaceutical**: Projected net profit of 87 million to 130 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 537.28% to 852.26% [9] - **Light Media**: Expected net profit of 1.5 billion to 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 413.67% to 550.66% [9] - **Zhezhong Co.**: Forecasted net profit of 360 million to 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 392.14% to 583.53% [10] - **Hailanxin**: Expected net profit of 40 million to 60 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 387.47% to 631.2% [10] - **Jin Control Power**: Projected net profit of 155 million to 195 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 383.21% to 507.9% [11] - **Century Huatong**: Expected net profit of 5.55 billion to 6.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 357.47% to 475.34% [12] - **Chunxue Food**: Forecasted net profit of 36 million to 43 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 340.90% to 426.63% [13] - **Shirong Zhaoye**: Expected net profit of 126 million to 186 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.77% to 397.13% [13] - **Ningbo Yunsheng**: Projected net profit of 280 million to 380 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 194.49% to 299.67% [14] - **Jiangbolong**: Expected net profit of 1.25 billion to 1.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150.66% to 210.82% [16] - **China Shipbuilding**: Forecasted net profit of 7 billion to 8.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.89% to 99.07% [17] Fundraising and Restructuring - **Beijing Lier**: Plans to raise no more than 1.034 billion yuan through a private placement [21] - **Tongfei Co.**: Plans to raise no more than 1.2 billion yuan through a private placement [21] - **Muxi Co.**: Plans to provide up to 200 million yuan in loans to its subsidiary for GPU development [23] - **Wanhua High-Tech**: Haihua Group will become an indirect controlling shareholder through a cash increase of 4.998 billion yuan [23]

（编辑 楚丽君） 证券日报网讯 1月29日，菜百股份发布公告称，公司预计 2025 年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利 润为 106，000.00 万元到 123，000.00 万元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将增加 34，099.14 万 元到 51，099.14万元，同比增加 47.43%到 71.07%。 ...

本期业绩预增的原因主要系黄金珠宝行业消费趋势变化加速，公司密切关注市场动态，充分发挥直营优 势，各渠道增强联动，品牌影响力持续提升，核心经营指标稳中有进。 菜百股份(605599.SH)发布2025年年度业绩预增公告，预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利 润为106,000万元到123,000万元，与上年同期(法定披露数据)相比，将增加34,099.14万元到51,099.14万 元，同比增加47.43%到71.07%。 ...