记者丨张欣 郭聪聪 编辑丨周炎炎 视频丨柳润瑛 "自上周五以来，来买卖黄金的人突然多了起来，昨天应该是人数最多的一天。" 北京市西城区 菜市口百货（以下简称"菜百"） 一位 销售人员向21世纪经济报道透露，近期金 价的大幅波动，吸引了大批市民涌入金店，而人气最旺的当属四楼的投资金条销售区。 作为北京黄金消费的风向标，"菜百"成为本轮黄金热潮的缩影。 2月2日，本报记者实地探访菜百门店，刚踏入大门就被扑面而来的火热氛围包围，各个楼层的 金饰柜台、回购窗口前都挤满了人，咨询声、讨论声交织在一起。 （"菜百"黄金回购处的情景，来源：21世纪经济报道记者张欣拍摄） 一位年逾50的阿姨向21世纪经济报道记者细数手中的黄金饰品，她打算将藏品全部变现， 其 中包括1995年购入的16克左右金项链，彼时买入价仅130元/克 ，还有2018年入手的黄金饰品 及耳环，部分耳环早已送给女儿佩戴。 "近期金价合适，看到北京到处都在排队卖金，我也想趁机变现，给孩子偿还房贷。"阿姨向本 报记者说道。 与此同时，当前国际金价正在上演过山车行情。2月2日下午，国际现货黄金价格一度跌破4450 美元/盎司，创下1月8日以来的新低，较日内高点回 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for stock price appreciation in the coming months [10]. Core Insights - The company, Caibai Co., Ltd., is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.06-1.23 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.4%-71.1%, significantly exceeding market expectations [1]. - The core driver of this high growth is the explosive increase in investment gold business, supported by strong consumer demand driven by high gold prices and favorable tax policies for gold transactions [1][2]. - The company has a competitive advantage as a comprehensive member of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, benefiting from tax exemptions on standard gold transactions, which is expected to enhance its market share [1]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2025 is 3.20 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 58.23% compared to the previous year [3]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted at 1.16 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 61.17% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.49 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.44x [3]. Product Structure and Market Position - In addition to the rapidly growing investment gold business, the company’s high-margin jewelry segment is also maintaining growth, with premium brands enhancing overall profitability and brand image [2]. - The company is focusing on the Beijing market, where retail sales in the gold and jewelry sector have shown strong performance despite broader consumer pressures [2]. - The online sales channel has seen significant growth, accounting for over 30% of revenue in the first half of 2025, with an impressive year-on-year increase of 85.77% [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company’s advantages, including being a member of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, a fully direct sales model, and a focus on high-net-worth areas, provide strong profit certainty during the rising gold price cycle [2]. - Future net profit projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.16 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.67 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.4, 11.4, and 10.0 [2].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Gold and Jewelry Industry Industry Overview - The focus is on the gold and jewelry industry, particularly the investment opportunities amidst fluctuating gold prices [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Gold Price Decline** - The recent drop in gold prices does not affect the long-term logic of the gold and jewelry sector. The business model relies on brand fees linked to annual sales, which provides a stable cash flow that is not significantly impacted by short-term gold price fluctuations [1]. 2. **Gold Price Trends** - The gold price in Shanghai reached a high of 800 yuan in April 2025 and 1250 yuan in January 2026, before falling to approximately 1050 yuan at the end of January 2026. As long as the price does not drop below 800 yuan, the long-term fundamentals of the gold and jewelry market remain intact, presenting potential buying opportunities during price volatility [1]. 3. **Direct Sales vs. Franchise Models** - Direct sales companies such as Cai Bai Co., Lao Pu Gold, Liufu Group, and Chow Sang Sang are more directly affected by gold price changes, with short-term sales impacting profits. For instance, Cai Bai Co.'s performance forecast for 2025 exceeded expectations due to the gold price being 995 yuan at the end of 2025 [1]. - Franchise models like Chow Tai Fook, Chow Tai Sheng, Lao Feng Xiang, and others typically reflect consumer demand recovery after gold price changes, which may take 3-5 quarters. Currently, these franchise companies are at lower stock price levels, indicating more certain investment opportunities [2]. 4. **Comparison with Gold Mining Companies** - Gold jewelry companies have significantly better cash flow compared to gold mining companies. For example, the dividend payout ratios since listing are 88% for Chow Tai Fook, 58% for Chow Tai Sheng, and 60% for Cai Bai Co., while mining companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold have much lower ratios of 21%, 5%, and 19% respectively [2]. - There is a time lag in stock price reactions; gold mining stocks respond immediately to gold price increases, while jewelry companies show delayed responses [2]. 5. **Market Reactions and Opportunities** - The recent drop in gold prices may lead to panic selling in the market. However, the long-term business model advantages remain unchanged, and adjustments in stock prices may present buying opportunities. Companies in the direct sales model are expected to benefit if gold prices do not fall significantly below 1000 yuan [2][3]. 6. **Franchise Model Resilience** - Franchise brands will also benefit as long as gold prices do not drop below 800 yuan, with gradual performance improvements expected even in a fluctuating market [3]. Additional Important Insights - The analysis emphasizes the resilience of the gold and jewelry sector against short-term price fluctuations and highlights the importance of understanding different business models within the industry for investment decisions [1][2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

业绩预告简述：公司预计2025 年归母净利润为10.6-12.3 亿元，同比增长47.43%到71.07%。预计2025 年 扣非归母净利润为9.5-11.2亿元，同比增长39.16%到64.03%。其中：预计2025Q4 归母净利润4.13-5.83 亿元，同比增长150%到253%；预计2025Q4 扣非归母净利润3.66-5.36 亿元，同比增长130%到237%。 本报告导读： 金价上涨投资金高增，公司投资金业务持续受益黄金税收新政。 投资要点： 投资建议：维持增持评级。金价上涨投资金高增，预测2025-2027年EPS 分别为1.55、1.96、2.17 元，同 比+67.5%/+26.5%/+10.8%，参考可比公司估值，给予2026 年15xPE，给予目标价29.4 元，维持增持评 级。 金价上行，投资金需求强劲，菜百全直营模式受益。金价上行，黄金投资需求表现强劲。根据世界黄金 协会，2025 年四季度，中国市场黄金投资与消费需求（含金饰、金条、金币、黄金 ETF 及工业用金） 总量达274 吨，年同比增长18%，较三季度大幅攀升60%。其中金条金币需求量环比激增61%，同比增 长42%，达11 ...

菜百股份（605599.SH）2025 年业绩预告点评 利润大幅增长，投资金业务持续受益 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 20,233 | 33,228 | 37,052 | 40,244 | | 增长率（%） | 22.2 | 64.2 | 11.5 | 8.6 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 719 | 1,150 | 1,347 | 1,516 | | 增长率（%） | 1.7 | 60.0 | 17.1 | 12.5 | | 每股收益（元） | 0.92 | 1.48 | 1.73 | 1.95 | | PE | 23 | 15 | 12 | 11 | | PB | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 30 日收盘价） 2026 年 02 月 01 日 | 推荐 | 维持评级 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.06 to 1.23 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47% to 71%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 0.95 to 1.12 billion yuan, with a growth of 39% to 64% [8]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 is anticipated to see a significant increase in net profit, estimated at 413 to 583 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 150% to 254% [8]. - The upward trend in gold prices, coupled with favorable tax reforms, is expected to enhance the company's investment gold business, leading to increased market demand [8]. - The company benefits from high consumer demand for gold in the Beijing region, which is expected to drive sales of gold jewelry [8]. - The report forecasts revenues of 33.23 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 64.2%, and net profits of 1.15 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 60% [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.23 billion yuan, 33.23 billion yuan, 37.05 billion yuan, and 40.24 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 22.2%, 64.2%, 11.5%, and 8.6% [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 719 million yuan in 2024, 1.15 billion yuan in 2025, 1.35 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.52 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 1.7%, 60%, 17.1%, and 12.5% [2][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.92 yuan in 2024, 1.48 yuan in 2025, 1.73 yuan in 2026, and 1.95 yuan in 2027 [2][9].

极目新闻记者 李迎 金价经历强势上涨后迎来回调。极目新闻记者了解到，截至2月1日，多家黄金品牌单克价格回落幅度在80元左右，当天北京菜百商场还未到营业时 间，门口前来出售黄金的顾客已经排起了近百人的长龙。 1日下午3时，极目新闻记者在北京菜百首饰西城总店看到，菜百三楼的黄金回购处，消费者仍排起长队，等待出售手中的黄金。有投资者表示，已在 此等待两个多小时。一名店员手中举着"今日回购业务已达上限，回购业务暂停"。这名店员告诉记者，"今天已达到金店回购限额。金价可能是诱因， 平时也有人来出售，但是没有这么多。"有出售者告诉极目新闻记者，因金价下跌，所以紧急来金店售金，"万一明天再跌呢！" 顾客排长队出售手中的黄金（极目新闻记者摄） 也有出售者仍抱有投资意图。一名出售者称，其在2025年1月时购入黄金，当时黄金单克价格600元左右，这两日观望金价下跌，"先卖200克，拿一点 利润出来，万一它要再跌，我再低价补入一些。" 而在位于四楼的实物黄金交易柜台，柜台前仍有不少前来看金、买金的消费者，但和前几日大量消费者买金的情况略有不同，结账柜台人数较少，有 部分消费者持观望态度。一名消费者告诉极目新闻记者："这两天黄金跌价 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The civil aviation sector is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes during the Spring Festival [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to the upcoming holiday and improved vacation policies [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold sector as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report notes a significant increase in domestic flight ticket bookings, with over 7.16 million tickets reserved as of January 29, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16% [4]. - International flight bookings also show slight growth, with over 1.72 million tickets reserved [4]. Retail Sector Insights - The report cites a Bain & Company report indicating a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, although this represents a significant improvement compared to the previous year's decline [4]. Company Announcements - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. expects a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Cuihua Jewelry forecasts a net profit of 21 million to 31 million RMB for 2025, a decrease of 85.69% to 90.31% compared to the previous year [4]. Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks across various sectors, including: - Hotels: Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, JinJiang Hotels [4]. - Duty-free: China Duty Free Group [4]. - Scenic spots: Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism [4]. - Gold sector: Cai Bai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, Lao Pu Gold [4]. - AI and new consumption: Kangnait Optical, Huatu Shanding, Tianli International Holdings [4].