Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the photovoltaic sector [2][7]. Core Insights - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products, effective from April 1, 2026, marks the end of over a decade of direct fiscal support for photovoltaic exports, potentially leading the industry towards high-quality development [1][2]. - A "window period" is expected to create a surge in export orders and production increases in Q1 2026, improving the performance of companies heavily reliant on exports [2]. - Following the end of the export rebate, overseas pricing for photovoltaic components is anticipated to rise, benefiting leading companies with strong brand and channel advantages [2]. - The cancellation of the rebate is seen as a response to the industry's call to reduce low-price competition, which may accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacities and allow leading firms to gain market share [2]. - Companies with overseas production capabilities and local market presence are expected to benefit from the reduced cost disadvantage of local manufacturing [2]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be eliminated, transitioning the industry towards a more sustainable growth model [1][2]. Market Dynamics - A surge in orders and production is expected in Q1 2026 due to the impending policy change, similar to previous "rush to install" phenomena [2]. - The end of the rebate is likely to lead to a reevaluation of overseas component prices, with stronger pricing power for top-tier companies [2]. Competitive Landscape - The cancellation of the rebate is anticipated to facilitate the exit of low-efficiency production capacities, allowing leading companies to enhance their market share through technological and brand advantages [2]. - Companies with advanced technologies and cost advantages, such as those focusing on TOPCon/BC technologies and silicon material upgrades, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2]. Valuation of Key Companies - A table of key companies with their respective valuations and projected earnings for 2025-2027 is provided, indicating varying levels of profitability and market performance [3].

Investment Rating - The report rates the photovoltaic industry as "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2]. Core Insights - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products, effective April 1, 2026, marks the end of over a decade of direct fiscal support for photovoltaic exports, potentially leading the industry into a phase of high-quality development [1]. - A "window period" is anticipated, leading to increased overseas orders and production ramp-up in Q1 2026, similar to previous phases of accelerated installations, which is expected to improve the performance of export-oriented photovoltaic companies [2]. - After the policy window closes, overseas component prices are likely to be renegotiated, as China, being the largest exporter of photovoltaic components, will have stronger pricing power due to the cancellation of the rebate, which is expected to lead to price increases [2]. - The cancellation of the export rebate is seen as a response to the call for reducing low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, which will accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacities and reshape the market landscape [2]. - Companies with overseas production capacity and strong brand/channel advantages are expected to benefit from the narrowing cost disadvantage of local manufacturing, particularly in regions like the Middle East and North Africa [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Outlook - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate is expected to enhance the industry's quality of development and reduce fiscal funds being transferred to overseas terminals [2]. - The report suggests that leading companies with technological advantages (TOPCon/BC), strong brands, and distribution channels will continue to gain market share [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with overseas production capabilities, such as Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and others, which are expected to benefit from the "price adjustment and capacity exit" [2]. - Companies that are advancing new technologies and material upgrades, such as Aiko Solar and Dongfang Risheng, are also highlighted for their potential to enhance product efficiency and pricing power [2]. - Cost-advantaged silicon material companies like Tongwei Co. and Daqo New Energy are recommended for investment consideration [2]. Valuation Table - A valuation table is provided, detailing the estimated net profits and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies in the industry, indicating varying performance expectations for 2025 to 2027 [3].

【光伏概念盘初活跃 东方日升等多股涨超10%】智通财经1月12日电，早盘光伏概念再度活跃，钙钛矿 电池、太空光伏方向领涨，东方日升、迈为股份、捷佳伟创涨超10%，此前杭萧钢构、金晶科技涨停， 国晟科技触及涨停续创历史新高，天合光能、金辰股份等跟涨。消息面上，近期钧达股份、晶科能源、 天合光能等光伏上市公司对太空光伏的关注度显著提升，并且均重点提到钙钛矿技术在太空的应用前 景。 转自：智通财经 ...

Core Insights - Chinese energy storage companies are rapidly expanding their overseas orders, with a total expected scale of nearly 284.26 GWh by 2025, which is 3.49 times the new installed capacity of 81.5 GWh in 2024 [2] - The leading regions for these orders are Europe (61.82 GWh), Australia (53.91 GWh), and Asia (excluding China) (51.50 GWh) [2] - Notable companies include CATL, which leads in Australia, the Middle East, and North America, while Hicharge Energy leads in Europe and Asia [2] Company Rankings - The top three companies by overseas order volume are: - CATL: 56.9 GWh - Hicharge Energy: 34.01 GWh - Star Charge: 33.74 GWh [2][5] - Other significant players include BYD (19.7 GWh), Trina Solar (16.613 GWh), and Yanshan Energy (12.56 GWh) [5][6] Regional Breakdown - The order distribution by region shows: - Europe: 61.82 GWh - Australia: 53.91 GWh - Asia (excluding China): 51.50 GWh - North America: 46.57 GWh - Middle East: 42 GWh - South America: 24.21 GWh - Africa: 4.37 GWh [2][5] Notable Contracts - Hicharge Energy signed a strategic cooperation agreement for a 1 GWh energy storage system with Energy 3000 in Europe [8] - Yanshan Energy has signed contracts for over 5 GWh of storage projects in Poland [8] - CATL has agreements for 3 GWh of battery storage systems in Australia with various partners [16][21]

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products marks the end of the "rebate subsidy era," significantly impacting component manufacturers and potentially leading to a surge in exports before the policy takes effect [1][3][5]. Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products effective April 1, 2026, with a reduction in the rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% until the end of 2026 [3][4]. - The announcement includes a list of 249 products related to photovoltaic and 22 battery products affected by the policy change [4]. Industry Impact - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate is expected to have a significant impact on component manufacturers, with predictions of a "rush to export" before the policy takes effect [5][6]. - Major manufacturers such as JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, JA Solar, and LONGi Green Energy reported substantial losses in the first three quarters of 2025, with JinkoSolar's overseas revenue exceeding 60% of its total revenue [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association indicated that the adjustment of export VAT rebates could help stabilize overseas market prices, which have been declining due to fierce competition [4][10]. - The industry is experiencing a shift from "price competition" to "value competition," as companies will need to focus on technological upgrades and high-value segments to maintain competitiveness [10][11]. Regulatory Environment - Recent meetings involving the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and leading polysilicon companies addressed concerns about monopolistic practices and market regulation, indicating a tightening regulatory environment [8][9]. - The cancellation of export rebates and potential changes in the polysilicon storage plan are seen as part of a broader effort to combat "internal competition" within the industry [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing robust growth driven by policy support, indicating a critical turning point in commercialization. Satellite frequency and orbital resources are scarce strategic assets globally, with developed countries like the US leveraging early investments and SpaceX's advantages to secure significant frequency resources. China has recognized commercial aerospace as a vital strategic area, intensifying policy support to accelerate satellite network deployment [3][8] - Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is the primary long-term energy source for satellites, with current applications focused on communication satellites. The global solar PV market is projected to reach between 80 billion to 120 billion yuan, assuming the price of gallium arsenide batteries is approximately 200,000 yuan per square meter and an annual launch of 4,000 to 6,000 satellites, each with solar wings of 100 square meters. Elon Musk's plan to deploy 100GW of computing power annually by 2030 could transition space PV from "satellite auxiliary power" to "large-scale energy infrastructure," potentially expanding the market from a hundred billion to a trillion yuan scale [4][8][9] Summary by Sections Section 1: Electric New Energy - The solar PV market is set to expand significantly, driven by the unique energy demands of satellites and large-scale space data centers. The technology is evolving from multi-junction gallium arsenide to P-type HJT and perovskite/silicon tandem cells, which are better suited for the harsh conditions of space. P-type HJT batteries offer advantages such as radiation resistance, lightweight, high efficiency, and cost-effectiveness, making them ideal for space applications [9] - The market for HJT technology is expected to grow as it moves away from competitive pressures in the terrestrial PV market, positioning it as a mainstream technology globally [9][10] Section 2: Investment Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Maiwei Co., Jin Feng Technology (H), and Zhongji Anruike. Companies related to equipment such as Jiejia Weichuang and Aotewei are suggested for attention, along with battery and module companies like Dongfang Risheng, Junda Co., Jinko Solar, Trina Solar, and Mingyang Smart Energy. Other companies in the commercial aerospace supply chain include Jin Feng Technology (A), Jiufeng Energy, Xinle Energy, Guoci Materials, Jing Shan Light Machine, Saiwu Technology, Jinjing Technology, and Taisheng Wind Energy [10]

在华南装光伏，制造业老板们总有个"心头患"：每年5月至10月的台风季，怕厂房顶的光伏组件被掀飞; 沿海地区盐雾弥漫，组件用几年就锈迹斑斑;夏季高温炙烤，发电量跳水还怕引发电气隐患…… "稳阵"一词在粤语中有着"稳妥、安全"之意。记者1月8日获悉，天合光能专为华南气候"量身定 制"的"至尊N型700W+系列大板型组件"用多重硬核安全屏障搭建起屋顶光伏"好稳阵"。 以福建丰大集团5.99MW屋顶光伏发电项目为例，该项目位于中印尼"两国双园"核心区，采用天合光 能"至尊N型700W+组件"，并网后在夏季台风高发期中安然无恙，经受住了多个强台风的考验，项目质 量得到了充分验证，为沿海地区光伏建设提供了极具价值的示范样本。 据悉，通过风洞测试，该组件可抵御62m/s极限风速，远超行业要求。在抗风设计上，该产品不仅增加 700W+系列组件边框与螺丝连接面的壁厚，还升级边框的结构设计，组件边框宽度增加15%，相当于给 组件装了"钢筋铁骨"。 ...

可以看出，若不能提高光伏产品价格以弥补出口退税政策调整的影响，光伏厂商业绩或将受到冲击。 据了解，2025年上半年，晶科能源海外业务占比超六成。其表示，公司凭借前瞻性的全球布局战略，不 仅深耕海外传统光伏市场，更敏锐捕捉海外高增长市场，实现2025年上半年逾六成的海外出货。公司在 日本光伏组件市场多年保持出货冠军，在沙特地区的市场份额大幅高于同业，在中东、东南亚、拉美区 域的多个光伏新兴市场实现市占率领跑。2025年上半年，公司在巴基斯坦的组件出货量便已达到2024年 全年的出货水平。 2025年上半年，晶科能源应收出口退税款期末账面价值为9.13亿元。 同期，天合光能境外业务收入为147.67亿元，占营收比例约为48%。2025年上半年，天合光能应收增值 税出口退税期初账面价值为0.21亿元。关于期末账面价值，天合光能并未列明。 晶澳科技境外业务占比同样接近五成。据2025年半年报，其境外业务收入118.42亿元，占比约为 49.54%。2025年上半年，晶澳科技应收出口退税款期初账面价值为0.18亿元，期末账面价值为0.25亿 元。 同期，隆基绿能光伏产品分部中，境外业务收入为123.68亿元，占光伏产品 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, reducing the rebate rate from 9% to 0% [1] - In the first ten months of 2025, photovoltaic exports reached $24.42 billion, which would result in a loss of approximately $2.2 billion (around 15.3 billion RMB) in rebates for large exporting companies [1] - If companies cannot raise prices to offset the impact of the export tax policy adjustment, their performance may be adversely affected [1] Group 2 - JinkoSolar's overseas business accounted for over 60% of its total shipments in the first half of 2025, maintaining a leading position in various international markets [2] - Trina Solar reported overseas revenue of 14.767 billion RMB, making up about 48% of its total revenue in the same period [2] - JA Solar's overseas business revenue was approximately 11.842 billion RMB, accounting for about 49.54% of its total revenue [2] Group 3 - Among the four major photovoltaic manufacturers, JinkoSolar has the highest proportion of overseas business, followed by Trina Solar and JA Solar, with LONGi Green Energy having the lowest [3] - Trina Solar's energy storage segment has made significant progress in expanding overseas markets, with a successful shipment of a 1.2 GWh energy storage system to Chile in July 2025 [3] - The export VAT rebate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and will be completely eliminated by January 1, 2027, providing a longer buffer period compared to photovoltaic products [3] Group 4 - The cancellation of export rebates may benefit manufacturers with a higher proportion of overseas production capacity [3] - Companies are increasingly establishing overseas production facilities, with JinkoSolar actively promoting global production and sales, including setting up factories in Southeast Asia and the U.S. [5]

Core Viewpoint - The multi-crystalline silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with significant price drops and declines in the stock prices of leading domestic companies in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 9, the main 2605 contract for multi-crystalline silicon closed at 51,300 yuan/ton, down 8.11% [1]. - Major domestic companies such as Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), Daqo New Energy (688303.SH), and GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) saw their stock prices drop by 3.83%, 6.10%, and 7.02% respectively [1]. Group 2: Production and Pricing Trends - The production of multi-crystalline silicon is projected to decrease by 28.4% in 2025, with current spot prices having rebounded over 70% from historical lows recorded in June 2025 [2]. - Factors contributing to the recent price increases include a continuous reduction in the operating rate of silicon material, rising prices in downstream silicon wafers and battery segments, and a supportive procurement willingness from the component end due to existing orders [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The fundamental issue in the photovoltaic industry is not supply but rather a lack of demand, with domestic installations declining due to regulatory impacts [3]. - Data from the National Energy Administration indicates that the utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation in China was 94.9% from January to October 2025, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating increasing consumption pressure [3]. - The market is facing challenges in balancing the supply-demand equation, with concerns about how to achieve industry-wide collaboration to address these issues [3][4]. Group 4: Industry Collaboration - The chairman of Trina Solar (688599.SH) emphasized the need for horizontal collaboration across various segments of the supply chain, including silicon materials, wafers, batteries, and components, to achieve profitability across the entire industry [4]. - There is a call for both horizontal and vertical collaboration within the industry to effectively manage internal competition and ensure all segments can achieve profitability [4].