智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，综合基本面、估值、筹码、政策和市场交易特征五要素， 2025年下半年港股投资机会将继续扩散，重点关注以互联网科技、医药为代表的广义成长板块投资机 会，新消费个股中期仍有阿尔法优势，但短期面临性价比不足的问题。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 一问：港股机会只聚焦于龙头吗? 三问：港股盈利周期处在什么位置? 对港股通2024年年报进行业绩分析，港股通行业收入、利润、毛利率TTM、ROETTM在2024年年报均 企稳回升：2024年年报，港股通收入增速为2.4%，环比24H1提升0.8个百分点，归母净利润增速为 7.4%，环比24H1提升7.7个百分点，毛利率TTM为9.3%，环比24H1提升0.1个百分点，ROETTM为 12.4%，环比24H1提升0.3个百分点。对ROE进行杜邦拆分，销售净利率和资产周转率均为正贡献，也 提示港股通业绩回暖来自于量价齐升，盈利能力改善的确定性较高。 四问：港股哪些板块和行业基本面量价齐升? 大类板块来看，2024年年报TMT、医药盈利边际改善明显。TMT和医药板块2024年收入、利润同比增 速环比24H1上升，且ROETTM边际改善明显，销售净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The major expectation gap in the global macroeconomic landscape for the first half of 2025 is the disproof of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, influenced by factors such as the Deepseek moment, Trump's tariff impacts, and fiscal constraints in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Narrative Shift - The narrative is shifting from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism," with the global macroeconomic environment remaining stable overall, despite tariff disruptions affecting global industrial production and trade [2][3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained above the 50 mark for three consecutive months, indicating expansion, but fell back to 49.8 in April [2] - The IMF has revised down its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8% [2] Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs and Legislation - The tariff-induced economic shock is expected to be a central theme throughout the year, with a focus on macro data validation rather than negotiation processes [4] - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulation effects, while increasing long-term debt supply pressure due to higher deficits [4] - The act includes approximately 80% of existing tax cut extensions and 20% of new tax measures, which may not fully offset tariff revenues [4] Group 3: Paradigm Shift in Asset Safety - The baseline assumption for the U.S. economy under current tariff levels is "slowing but not recession," with inflationary pressures and economic downturn risks being relatively balanced [5] - Bloomberg consensus anticipates that inflation rebound will last for about 2-3 quarters, with year-end PCE and core PCE inflation peaks expected at 3.1% and 3.3%, respectively [5] - The U.S. may have entered a phase of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, driven by high inflation and twin deficits, which could undermine the perceived safety of U.S. assets [5][6]

（ 於 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 註 冊 成 立 的 股 份 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：6806） 海外監管公告 本公告乃由申萬宏源集團股份有限公司（「本公司」）根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規 則第13.10B條作出。 茲載列本公司於深圳證券交易所網站發佈之《申萬宏源集團股份有限公司2023年面向專業投資 者公開發行公司債券（第一期）（品種二）2025年付息公告》，僅供參閱。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲 明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 承董事會命 申萬宏源集團股份有限公司 董事長 劉健 北京，2025年6月12日 於本公告日期，董事會成員包括執行董事劉健先生及黃昊先生；非執行董事朱志龍先生、張英女士、邵亞樓先生、 徐一心先生及嚴金國先生；獨立非執行董事楊小雯女士、武常岐先生、陳漢文先生及趙磊先生。 股票代码：000166 股票简称：申万宏源 公告编号：临 2025-41 债券代码：148318 债券简称：23 申宏 02 申万宏源集团股份有限公司 20 ...

股票代码：000166 股票简称：申万宏源 公告编号：临 2025-41 债券代码：148318 债券简称：23 申宏 02 申万宏源集团股份有限公司 （第一期）（品种二）2025年付息公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏 特别提示： （1）申万宏源集团股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者公开 发行公司债券（第一期）（品种二）（债券简称：23 申宏 02，债券 代码：148318）将于 2025 年 6 月 16 日支付自 2024 年 6 月 14 日至 （2）本次付息的债权登记日为 2025 年 6 月 13 日，凡在 2025 年 息； 由申万宏源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）于 2023 年 6 月 14 日发行的申万宏源集团股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资 者公开发行公司债券（第一期） （品种二） （以下简称"本期债券"） 一、本期债券基本情况 者公开发行公司债券（第一期）（品种二）。 假日或休息日，则顺延至其后的第 1 个交易日，顺延期间付息款项不 另计利息）。 顺延至其后的第 1 个交易日，顺延期间兑付款项不另计利 ...

股票代码：000166 股票简称：申万宏源 公告编号：临 2025-41 债券代码：148318 债券简称：23 申宏 02 2023年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券 （第一期）（品种二）2025年付息公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏 特别提示： （1）申万宏源集团股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者公开 发行公司债券（第一期）（品种二）（债券简称：23 申宏 02，债券 代码：148318）将于 2025 年 6 月 16 日支付自 2024 年 6 月 14 日至 2025 年 6 月 13 日期间的利息 3.49 元（含税）/张。 （2）本次付息的债权登记日为 2025 年 6 月 13 日，凡在 2025 年 6 月 13 日（含）前买入并持有本期债券的投资者享有本次派发的利 息；2025年6月13日卖出本期债券的投资者不享有本次派发的利息。 由申万宏源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）于 2023 年 6 月 14 日发行的申万宏源集团股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资 者公开发行公司债券（第一期）（品种二）（以下简称" ...

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，五一假期出行超预期以及节后量价进一步稳定，体现航司销 售模式变化已有成效。油价进一步下行释放航司成本压力，在航空供应链恢复受限、宽体机利用率提升 等变化下，航空供给逻辑已有多方面验证，内需复苏下航空需求侧有望触底提升，加速顺周期行情启 动。航空市场正稳步迈入旺季阶段，从今年市场的供需结构来看，市场供给增长受限，旅客量自然增长 的核心逻辑不变，若后续国内航司票价回暖，将持续验证支撑航司收益提升逻辑。 该行继续推荐关注航空板块，供给放缓确定性强，需求端具备弹性，同时在外部油价变化配合下航司能 够释放较大业绩提升空间。关注全球飞机租赁公司、航空发动机及维修厂商、关注业绩持续修复的机场 板块。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 需求景气度回升，量价协同放大收益 上半年整体呈现量升价减趋势，五月价格同比出现拐点。24年Q2后市场量价基数均有所降低，航司销 售模式有所转变，量价表现逐步好转且稳定。跨境运力恢复下票价持续常态化，同时宽体机利用率明显 提升。今年以来外交部持续试行多项外国旅客单向免签政策，入境游表现强劲。 从量变到质变，需求增长将逐步兑现至价格端。今年以来客座率仍处高位且已达到历 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted the acceleration of de-dollarization globally and the rise of China's technological strength, indicating a shift in investment focus towards markets outside the US, particularly in Germany and Hong Kong [4][5]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference, themed "In the Midst of Turmoil, Heroes Emerge," featured one main forum and twelve sub-forums covering key market topics such as asset allocation, AI and chips, financial innovation, and more, with participation from nearly 500 listed company executives and over 2,200 investors [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Trends - The current global political and economic landscape is undergoing significant changes, with a notable shift in capital flows from the US to other markets, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Technology Index rising over 20% since the beginning of the year [4]. - The trend of capital accumulation in the US since 2020 is reversing, with international investors increasingly focusing on other markets [4]. Group 3: China's Economic Outlook - China's economic growth momentum is solidifying, with foreign investment banks raising their growth forecasts for China and recommending an "overweight" position in the Chinese stock market [4]. - The proportion of new driving forces in China's economy has reached a significant scale, with high-tech industries accounting for 16.3% of industrial output [6]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - China is a key participant in the current technological revolution, with significant advancements in AI, quantum computing, and renewable energy, supported by increased R&D investment, projected to reach 2.68% of GDP by 2024 [5]. - China ranks 11th in the global innovation index, being the only middle-income economy in the top 30, reflecting its strong position in patent applications and authorizations in AI and renewable energy [5]. Group 5: Economic Transformation - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a structural reform on the supply side, with a focus on high-quality development and service sector expansion to absorb employment pressures during the economic transition [7]. - The service sector is identified as a critical area for job creation, with policies expected to enhance supply and stimulate demand in this sector [7]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The A-share market is poised for a potential bull market, with 2025 marking a peak for asset reallocation as deposit maturities increase [8]. - The market is expected to experience a "slow bull" phase, characterized by gradual improvements in fundamentals and a higher return baseline for investments [8][9]. - By 2026, the supply-demand dynamics are anticipated to improve, leading to a more favorable market environment [9].

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted the acceleration of global de-dollarization and the rise of China's technological strength, emphasizing the shift of international capital from the US to other markets, particularly Germany and Hong Kong [4][5]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference, themed "In the Midst of Turmoil, Heroes Emerge," featured one main forum and twelve sub-forums covering key market topics such as asset allocation, AI and chips, financial innovation, and more, with participation from nearly 500 listed company executives and over 2,200 investors [3]. Group 2: Economic Insights - The new economic momentum in China has reached a significant scale, with high-tech industries accounting for 16.3% of industrial output, indicating a transformative shift in the economy [6]. - The policy framework for the new transformation phase is taking shape, focusing on high-quality development, dual circulation, and sustainable growth, with an emphasis on human-centered approaches [6][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The A-share market is poised for a potential bull market, with 2025 expected to be a peak period for asset reallocation as residents shift their investments [9]. - The potential bull market is characterized as a "Chinese-style slow bull," with improvements in fundamentals expected to be gradual but sustained, supported by enhanced investment returns and controlled market volatility [9][10].

Core Insights - The conference focused on the intersection of technology and finance, highlighting the transformative impact of AI on traditional financial operations and the investment landscape [1][2] - Experts from various sectors discussed topics such as technology finance, asset allocation, sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East, new productive forces, C-REITs, and the application of AI models [1][4][5] Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference was organized by Shenwan Hongyuan's Financial Innovation Headquarters and featured four keynote speeches and two roundtable discussions [1] - The event attracted a diverse audience, including experts from academia, technology, government funds, and mainstream financial institutions, providing valuable investment insights [1][7] Group 2: Keynote Presentations - The first keynote by Gao Hao from Tsinghua University discussed the opportunities presented by Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and family businesses [4] - Wang Xi from Shanghai Guotou Xian Dao Fund emphasized the importance of early-stage investments in integrated circuits, biomedicine, and AI to support technological innovation [5] - Li Yaoguang from CICC presented on the development and opportunities within the C-REITs market, focusing on asset management strategies [5] - Zhang Zhijun from JD Technology shared insights on the application of AI models in various financial business scenarios, enhancing digital transformation [5] Group 3: Roundtable Discussions - The roundtable discussions featured prominent guests from public funds, bank wealth management, trusts, insurance, private equity, and foreign capital, sharing their perspectives on asset allocation strategies and structured product investment opportunities [7] - The discussions highlighted a consensus among participants regarding current investment topics, indicating a strong alignment of views within the investment community [7] Group 4: Future Directions - Shenwan Hongyuan's Financial Innovation Headquarters aims to continue serving national strategies and the real economy, focusing on digital transformation and enhancing comprehensive financial services [7] - The organization seeks to leverage its experience and professionalism to provide high-quality products and efficient services, contributing to the goal of a financially strong nation and technological self-reliance [7]

Group 1 - The current global technology revolution is significantly impacting production and lifestyle, with China being a key participant in this wave, particularly in AI and quantum computing [1] - The rise of Chinese technology has led to the emergence of innovative companies in the A-share market, which are crucial for stabilizing and strengthening the capital market [1] Group 2 - External uncertainties continue to challenge the capital market, but they are not the decisive factor for China's transformation; past external shocks have accelerated breakthroughs in domestic industries [2] - Key themes for 2025 include "anti-involution" and "rebalancing," with high-value industries showing resilience against high tariffs [2] - By the second half of 2025, the manufacturing sector may face downward pressure, while the service sector is expected to improve, potentially offsetting manufacturing challenges [2] Group 3 - The A-share market is anticipated to enter a bull market phase between 2026 and 2027, with signs of improved supply-demand dynamics and increased market profitability [3] - The potential for a bull market is supported by rising household asset allocation towards equities, driven by a peak in deposit maturities in 2025 [3] - A-share companies are expected to experience a long-term increase in profitability due to breakthroughs in high-value sectors and a significant supply clearing cycle [3] Group 4 - The technology sector is currently undergoing a mid-term adjustment, primarily due to slow AI application development and uncertainties in computing power investments [4] - Key areas of potential growth include AI, embodied intelligence, and defense industries, with a focus on high-cost performance opportunities [4] - Caution is advised regarding the expansion of new consumer trends, as significant short-term profit effects often signal market corrections [4] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to lead in a potential bull market, becoming a critical component of China's financial external circulation [5] - Hong Kong's internet sector is positioned as a leader in the domestic AI industry trend, while high-dividend state-owned enterprises are attracting attention from insurance funds [5] - The relative elasticity of the Hong Kong market compared to the A-share market remains a consistent assessment [5]