西部证券股份有限公司给予铜陵有色买进的初始评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. with a target price of 6.14 CNY per share based on a 15x PE for 2026 [1][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its resource self-sufficiency rate due to the production ramp-up of the Mirador Phase II project, enhancing profitability [2][14]. - The processing segment is targeting high-end markets, with a product structure moving towards high-end development, supported by five major copper processing bases [2][67]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 137.45 billion CNY in 2023 to 182.07 billion CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 18.7% from 2024 to 2025 [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 26.99 billion CNY in 2023 to 57.32 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a significant growth rate of 54.1% in 2026 [3][13]. Resource Segment - The self-sufficiency rate is expected to rise to 10.3% in 2025, 12.0% in 2026, and 15.4% in 2027, driven by the Mirador Phase II project [10]. - The company produced 176.80 thousand tons of cathode copper in 2024, with a self-sufficiency rate of 8.8%, a notable increase from 2022 [2][49]. Processing Segment - The company has established a comprehensive processing capability for copper materials, including rods, wires, cables, sheets, and foils, with a focus on high-end markets [2][67]. - The production capacity for electronic copper foil is projected to reach 80 thousand tons per year by the end of 2024, with specific capacities for PCB and lithium battery copper foils [2][67]. Valuation and Target Price - The report compares Tongling Nonferrous with peers like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, concluding a target price of 6.14 CNY per share based on a 15x PE for 2026 [17].

铜精矿加工费是指将铜精矿加工成铜金属所需的费用，包括铜的粗炼费（TC）和精炼费（RC）及副产 品金和银的精炼费。粗炼费是指从铜精矿到粗铜（或阳极铜）的冶炼费用，精炼费指从粗铜到电解铜 （阴极铜）的精炼费用。 今年以来，铜精矿加工费持续低位运行，长单与现货价格均处历史低位水平，冶炼环节利润承压严重。 华北最大阴极铜供应商北方铜业（000737.SZ）在半年报中称，上半年铜精矿加工费持续走低，现货加 工费从1月份在个位数中低位附近一路下滑至6月底-40美元/吨中位；6月27日，智利矿业公司安托法加 斯塔和中国冶炼厂年中谈判结果TC/RC敲定为0美元/干吨及0美分/磅。加工费跌入负值区间，意味着冶 炼厂需倒贴钱获取原料。 从光伏到风电，再到石化与钢铁，"反内卷"风又吹向铜冶炼行业。 中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议近日在河北雄安新区召开。铜冶炼行业"内卷 式"竞争导致铜精矿加工费持续低位的问题是此次会议讨论重点。 中国有色金属工业协会副会长陈学森在会上表示，铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争对行业影响大，协会已向国 家相关部门报送材料，提出严控铜冶炼产能扩张的具体措施建议。国家有关部门正加快研究如何加强对 ...

这一局面拖累行业龙头企业业绩表现。国内阴极铜产能第一的铜陵有色（000630.SZ）上半年增收不增 利，公司归母净利润同比下滑33.94%至14.41亿元，近五年来首次同期净利润下滑；北方铜业归母净利 润增幅陷入个位数，上半年盈利4.87亿元，同比增长5.85%，远低于2024年同期近54%增幅。 从光伏到风电，再到石化与钢铁，"反内卷"风又吹向铜冶炼行业。 中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议近日在河北雄安新区召开。铜冶炼行业"内卷 式"竞争导致铜精矿加工费持续低位的问题是此次会议讨论重点。 中国有色金属工业协会副会长陈学森在会上表示，铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争对行业影响大，协会已向国 家相关部门报送材料，提出严控铜冶炼产能扩张的具体措施建议。国家有关部门正加快研究如何加强对 铜冶炼产能建设规范化管理具体措施，相信很快会有结果。 铜精矿加工费是指将铜精矿加工成铜金属所需的费用，包括铜的粗炼费（TC）和精炼费（RC）及副产 品金和银的精炼费。粗炼费是指从铜精矿到粗铜（或阳极铜）的冶炼费用，精炼费指从粗铜到电解铜 （阴极铜）的精炼费用。 今年以来，铜精矿加工费持续低位运行，长单与现货价格均处历史低位 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.60% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2.1 trillion, a decrease of over 200 billion compared to the previous day [2] - The market is showing increased divergence as the holiday approaches, with trading volume relatively dull compared to last week, but volatility is on the rise [3] Sector Performance - The market saw a broad adjustment, with most industry sectors declining. Wind power equipment, chemical fiber, fertilizer, and insurance sectors showed gains, while technology sectors such as gaming, consumer electronics, electronic components, internet services, communication equipment, and software development faced significant declines [6] - Technology stocks experienced a widespread retreat, particularly in computing power sectors, with companies like Zhongheng Electric, Lianang Micro, and Qingshan Paper hitting their daily limit down. Major stocks like Inspur Information and Industrial Fulian also saw substantial drops [8] - Copper-related stocks performed well against the trend, with companies like Jingyi Co. achieving three consecutive limit-up days, and Jiangxi Copper and Tongling Nonferrous Metals also rising. This was influenced by supply concerns following a landslide at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which announced "force majeure" due to production stoppage [9] Investment Sentiment - As the National Day holiday approaches, investors face a classic dilemma of whether to hold stocks or cash. The market is experiencing increased volatility and accelerated sector rotation [19] - The market's profitability is declining, with only 32% of stocks rising this week, marking a low point in the current uptrend [21] - Historical data indicates that the probability of index declines in the five trading days leading up to the National Day holiday is 60%, suggesting a cautious outlook for the near term [21] Future Outlook - The technology sector has been a major contributor to the recent index gains, but the current crowded positioning indicates a demand for adjustment. The TMT sector has contributed 42% to the overall A-share index increase since June 23, with a trading volume share of 37% [25] - Given the historical trend of poor performance before the National Day holiday, there is a likelihood of profit-taking, and sectors with strong bottom support signals, such as banking and insurance, may be more favorable [26] - The market is expected to remain in a downward trend with a solid base, and while the medium to long-term upward momentum is still sufficient, more definitive trends may emerge post-October [27]

证券代码：000630 证券简称：铜陵有色 公告编号：2025－086 债券代码：124024 债券简称：铜陵定 02 铜陵有色金属集团股份有限公司 关于提前赎回铜陵定 02 实施暨即将 停止转让的重要提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 1.最后转让日：2025年9月29日 2025年9月29日是"铜陵定02"最后一个转让日；2025年9月29日收市 后，"铜陵定02"将停止转让。 2.最后转股日：2025年10月10日 2025年10月10日是"铜陵定02"最后一个转股日，当日收市前，持有 "铜陵定02"的投资者仍可进行转股；2025年10月10日收市后，未转股的 "铜陵定02"将停止转股。 特别提示： 证券代码：000630 证券简称：铜陵有色 债券代码：124024 债券简称：铜陵定02 转股价格：3.20元/股 转股期限：2024年3月27日至2029年9月20日 1."铜陵定02"赎回价格：100.063元/张（含当期应计利息，当期年 利率为1.1%，且当期利息含税），扣税后的赎回价格以中国证券登记结算 有限责 ...

铜陵有色金属集团股份有限公司发布提前赎回"铜陵定02"实施暨即将停止转让的重要提示性公告。"铜 陵定02"最后转让日为2025年9月29日，最后转股日为10月10日，赎回登记日为10月10日，赎回日为10月 13日。赎回价格为100.063元/张（含当期应计利息）。自2025年3月21日起"铜陵定02"已发行期满18个 月，且8月13日至9月4日公司股票有十五个交易日收盘价格不低于当期转股价格130%，触发有条件赎回 条款。公司提醒投资者注意最后转股时间，未及时转股可能面临损失，存在质押或冻结情形的建议提前 解除。 ...

Group 1 - The copper sector has seen significant price increases, with the copper index rising by 5.13% to 3581.38 points on September 25, 2023, and individual stocks like Jingyi Co. and Luoyang Molybdenum hitting their daily limits [1][2] - Copper prices reached new highs, with LME copper touching $10,485 per ton on September 25, 2023, and Shanghai copper reaching 82,980 yuan per ton, marking the highest levels since July 2024 [1][3] - The suspension of mining operations at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine due to a landslide has raised concerns about copper supply, with expectations that production levels may not return to pre-accident levels until 2027 [3][4] Group 2 - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased from 73,490 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 82,540 yuan per ton by September 25, 2023, reflecting a 12.31% increase [2] - Major copper companies in the A-share market have also seen stock price increases, with companies like Xinyi Silver Tin and Luoyang Molybdenum experiencing over 100% gains year-to-date [2] - The Grasberg mine accounts for approximately 3% of global copper supply, and its production loss is expected to impact global supply significantly, supporting higher copper prices [3][4] Group 3 - The Grasberg mine's production halt is not an isolated incident, as other copper mines, such as the Kamoa-Kakula mine in Africa, have also faced operational disruptions earlier this year [5][6] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum are planning to expand their copper production capabilities, aiming for a target of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028 [7] - Zijin Mining has gained control over the Giant Dragon Copper Mine, which is expected to significantly increase its production capacity by 2025 [8] Group 4 - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to experience high volatility, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting the market [4][9] - The rising copper prices are expected to impact downstream industries, particularly in the renewable energy sector, where copper demand is significantly higher compared to traditional energy sources [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market's copper concept stocks continue to strengthen, with Jingyi Co. achieving three consecutive trading limit increases, and other companies like Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, Jiangxi Copper, and Shengtun Mining also showing significant gains [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Copper Branch firmly opposes "involution" competition within the copper smelting industry, indicating a push for more sustainable practices [1] - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, has declared "force majeure" and ceased operations due to a landslide incident, impacting global copper supply [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced the early redemption of its convertible bond "铜陵定02" due to the triggering of conditional redemption clauses, with specific dates for transfer and conversion outlined [6][12][7]. Group 1: Important Dates - The last transfer date for "铜陵定02" is September 29, 2025 [2] - The last conversion date is October 10, 2025 [3] - The redemption registration date is October 10, 2025 [5] - The redemption date is October 13, 2025 [5] - The funds will be credited to investors' accounts by October 20, 2025 [5][21] Group 2: Redemption Details - The redemption price is set at 100.063 yuan per bond, including accrued interest [4][15] - The company will redeem all unconverted "铜陵定02" bonds after the registration date [5][21] - The bonds will be delisted from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange after the redemption [5][21] Group 3: Conversion and Redemption Conditions - The conversion price is 3.20 yuan per share, with a conversion period from March 27, 2024, to September 20, 2029 [4][9] - The conditional redemption was triggered as the company's stock price exceeded 130% of the conversion price for 15 trading days [12][13] - Investors are advised to convert their bonds before the deadline to avoid forced redemption [6][24]