"从供应端看，参考去年进口量，当前美国精炼铜供应严重过剩。"卓创资讯铜行业分析师宋洪潇告诉第 一财经记者，今年上半年美国精炼铜进口量为86.4万吨，而去年同期仅为35万吨，同比增幅高达 147%。因此从美铜基本面现状看，此次新策影响更多是美国国内情况。 虹吸效应消失，全球精炼铜贸易流向会否转向？我的钢铁网认为，若后续美铜与伦铜价差出现倒挂，即 美铜价格低于伦铜，则前期美国囤积铜货源将大量转运出来，这将给亚太及欧洲市场带来较大库存压 力，但库存转移的前提是二者价差出现倒挂，且足够覆盖转运成本。 7月31日，A股铜矿股集体下挫。截至收盘，江西铜业（600362.SH）、洛阳钼业（603993.SH）、铜陵 有色（000630.SZ）均跌超4%，北方铜业（000737.SZ）、紫金矿业（601899.SH）分别收跌3.54%、 3.38%。 铜矿股异动主要受一则关税消息影响。当地时间7月30日，美国总统特朗普宣布，将自8月1日起对进口 半成品铜产品（例如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板和铜管）及铜密集型衍生产品（例如管件、电缆、连接器 和电气元件）普遍征收50%关税。铜输入材料（例如铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜和阳极铜）和铜废 ...

铜矿股异动主要受一则关税消息影响。当地时间7月30日，美国总统特朗普宣布，将自8月1日起对进口 半成品铜产品（例如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板和铜管）及铜密集型衍生产品（例如管件、电缆、连接器 和电气元件）普遍征收50%关税。铜输入材料（例如铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜和阳极铜）和铜废料 不受"232条款"或对等关税约束。 特朗普将进口量最大的精炼铜排除在关税清单之外的决定出乎市场意料。消息发布当日，美国纽约商品 交易所（COMEX）铜主力合约（下称"美铜"）单日盘中暴跌超18%至4.63美元/磅，创历史最大单日跌 幅。同日，英国伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜主力合约（下称"伦铜"）收跌0.74%至9730美元/吨。美铜与 伦铜之间的价差也从一日之前每吨约3500美元缩窄至500美元，溢价从28%大幅回落至5%左右。7月31 日，美铜继续下跌，跌幅一度超过20%，回吐4月初以来全部涨幅。 美国是全球第二大铜消费国。据美国地质调查局数据，2024年美国铜消费量约180万吨，其中精炼铜160 万吨、废铜20万吨。精炼铜消费中，约一半来自进口。 一德期货首席分析师王伟伟强调，精炼铜进口关税前景并未完全消失，美国未来铜贸易政策的 ...

Group 1: Industry Development - The Anhui Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group has produced ultra-thin high-performance lithium battery copper foil, showcasing its focus on high-end copper industry chain development with over 700 research projects implemented since the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - Anhui is accelerating the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries while developing strategic emerging industries, aiming to build internationally competitive advanced manufacturing clusters [1][2] - The province is exploring new paths for the high-end, intelligent, and green transformation of traditional industries, with high-tech and high-value-added products emerging continuously [2] Group 2: Strategic Emerging Industries - The Hefei Guoxian Technology Co., Ltd. is constructing an 8.6-generation active matrix organic light-emitting display device production line with an investment exceeding 50 billion yuan, which will significantly boost the new display industry cluster in Hefei [3] - From 2013 to 2024, the output value of Anhui's strategic emerging industries increased from 20.7% to 43.6% of the industrial output above designated size, with over 4,000 automotive parts and aftermarket enterprises established [3] - Anhui is committed to integrating innovation and industry, with 80% of newly recognized industrial innovation platforms and technology projects led by enterprises [3] Group 3: Future Industries - The Wuhu Aviation Town is attracting nearly 200 companies, creating a complete industrial chain focused on the low-altitude economy, enabling the production of domestic general aircraft within the park [5] - The "Wukong" quantum computer developed by Benyuan Quantum Computing Technology has completed over 500,000 quantum computing tasks for users in 143 countries and regions since its launch [6][7] - The manufacturing investment in Anhui is projected to grow by 13.3% year-on-year in 2024, with the automotive and equipment manufacturing industries both surpassing 1 trillion yuan in revenue [7]

Group 1 - The State Intellectual Property Office of China has granted a patent for "scaffolding for construction" to Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Tongguan Construction Installation Co., Ltd. and Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Holdings Co., Ltd. The patent number is CN223151636U, with an application date of September 2024 [1] - The patent describes a scaffolding system that includes a main body and two first connection seats, which are symmetrically positioned on either side of the main body. The system features a protective sleeve that can be controlled for movement, allowing for easy material retrieval during construction [1] - The design includes a safety component that ensures the protective sleeve and rod remain aligned, providing safety for construction workers while facilitating material handling [1] Group 2 - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Tongguan Construction Installation Co., Ltd. was established in 2007, located in Tongling City, with a registered capital of 200.2 million RMB. The company has invested in 8 enterprises and participated in 2,241 bidding projects, holding 148 patents and 57 administrative licenses [2] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1981, also located in Tongling City, with a registered capital of 3,702.0339 million RMB. The company has invested in 74 enterprises, participated in 5,000 bidding projects, and holds 51 trademark registrations and 13 patents, along with 28 administrative licenses [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the copper smelting industry in China, highlighting production capacity, profitability challenges, and potential policy changes aimed at regulating the industry [2][5][6]. Production - In 2024, China's electrolytic copper production is expected to reach 13.64 million tons, accounting for 59% of global primary electrolytic copper production, with a compound annual growth rate of 10% since 2004 [3]. - The top ten companies in the copper smelting sector hold approximately 76% of the market share, with major producers including Jiangxi Copper (2.29 million tons), Tongling Nonferrous (1.77 million tons), and Jinchuan Group (1.33 million tons) [3]. Expansion - As of June 2025, the smelting operating rate is around 86%, with 2.98 million tons of production capacity yet to be put into operation. The annualized capacity for June 2025 is estimated at 15.88 million tons [4]. Profitability - The processing fee (TC/RC) has dropped significantly, with the spot price as of July 18, 2025, at -$43.2 per ton, marking a historical low. The long-term processing fee has also fallen to $0 per ton, forcing smelting companies to rely on by-products like sulfuric acid for profitability [5]. - If sulfuric acid prices decline further, smelting companies may face potential losses due to the lack of processing fee income [5]. Policy Implications - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies in the copper industry could limit new smelting capacity and accelerate the exit of smaller smelting operations. This may alleviate the current overcapacity and improve future profitability for smelting companies, especially as downstream consumption continues to grow due to sectors like renewable energy and grid upgrades [6].

Industry Overview - Copper strip is a key material in modern industry, known for its excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, processing performance, and corrosion resistance, widely used in new energy and electronic electrical fields [1][4] - The industry is experiencing a "quantity and quality rise" trend, with total production capacity expected to reach 4.179 million tons and output exceeding 3 million tons by 2024, while the proportion of high-end products is projected to increase to 35% [1][10] - The new energy vehicle sector has become a core growth driver, with production and sales in the first five months of 2025 increasing by over 44% year-on-year, significantly boosting demand for high-conductivity copper strips [1][22] Import and Export Dynamics - The import and export landscape is characterized by accelerated import substitution and steady export growth, with exports expected to increase by 20.61% year-on-year in 2024 [1][12] - In 2024, the total import volume of copper strips is projected to be approximately 88,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.28%, while exports are expected to reach 124,200 tons [12][14] - The import structure is shifting towards high-value-added products, while exports are primarily focused on general-purpose products, indicating a trend towards higher technical content and added value in trade [14][21] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape of the copper strip industry is evolving into a gradient structure, with leading companies like Jiangxi Copper and Tongling Nonferrous Metals dominating over 60% of the high-end market through technological innovation and cost reduction [16][18] - Medium-sized enterprises are focusing on niche markets, while smaller firms are facing pressure due to environmental standards and market saturation, leading to accelerated exits from the market [16][18] - The industry is expected to consolidate further, with a focus on technological leadership and high-end production capabilities [18][21] Future Trends - The copper strip industry is witnessing three core trends: high-end breakthrough, structural differentiation, and green transformation, driven by technological advancements and market demands [21][22] - The demand for copper strips in the new energy vehicle sector is expected to exceed 2 million tons by 2025, accounting for over 40% of global copper consumption growth [22][23] - Companies are increasingly investing in green technologies and innovations to enhance competitiveness, with significant potential for import substitution in high-end markets [23]

Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. is a significant player in China's nonferrous metal industry and a globally recognized giant, known for its innovative path towards modern industrial development in harmony with nature [2]. Group 1: Historical Development - The establishment of Tongling Nonferrous began with the first national nonferrous metal conference in 1949, leading to the development of the Tongguanshan copper mine, which was initially a wasteland [3]. - During the early years, the average annual production of crude copper at Tongguanshan increased by 72.3%, and industrial output value grew by 117.1% during the First Five-Year Plan [3]. - By the 1990s, the company became one of Asia's largest electrolytic copper producers, achieving significant technological innovations and winning national awards for its proprietary technologies [4]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The company has implemented advanced technologies and management practices, significantly enhancing production efficiency and product quality [4]. - The production process for high-purity cathode copper involves multiple steps, including crushing, flotation, smelting, and electrolysis, with a purity level exceeding 99.95% [6]. - The integration of internet and artificial intelligence technologies allows for real-time data management and process monitoring, improving production quality control [6][7]. Group 3: Market Position and Product Development - The rapid growth of green industries, such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, has driven demand for high-purity copper products, with electric vehicles requiring over 20 kilograms of copper foil for battery packs [7]. - The company has developed ultra-thin copper foils and other high-value products, breaking foreign monopolies in the high-frequency and high-speed substrate copper foil market [8]. - Tongling Nonferrous is expanding its product range to include copper-based new materials, forming a complete industrial chain from electrolytic copper to various copper products [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness and resource security while solidifying its leading position in the copper smelting industry [9]. - There is a focus on innovation-driven development, with increased investment in research and development for high-end copper-based new materials [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side reform in China is expected to break the deflationary cycle and create investment opportunities in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply constraints" to manage the supply-demand balance and mitigate economic downturn risks [6][12] - The steel industry is facing severe overcapacity, with state-owned enterprises holding a significant market share, which facilitates the implementation of administrative measures to control production [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Side Reform and Economic Management - The socialist market economy in China allows for effective macroeconomic control, contrasting with the cyclical issues faced in capitalist economies [12][13] - Historical experiences show that demand stimulus alone is insufficient to resolve deep-seated deflationary pressures [14][15] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has proven successful in stabilizing prices and improving corporate profitability [21][22] 2. Steel Industry Analysis - The steel industry has been in a state of oversupply from 2007 to 2024, with crude steel production increasing from 490 million tons to 1.01 billion tons, while apparent consumption has not kept pace [28][29] - The production capacity utilization rates for rebar and wire rod are expected to decline from around 70% to 50% due to weak real estate demand [33][34] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is high, with central state-owned enterprises accounting for approximately 63% of total production in 2024 [38][39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment targets: profit recovery, stable profit with valuation repair, and stable high-dividend stocks [51] - Specific companies recommended for profit recovery include Liugang Co., Taigang Stainless Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel, with projected annualized PE ratios improving significantly under favorable conditions [51]

Summary of the Conference Call for Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., focusing on its operations in the copper mining and smelting industry, particularly the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Mirador Copper Mine Production**: The first phase of the Mirador copper mine has an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons, with the second phase expected to commence in July 2025, bringing total capacity to 260,000 tons. The mine's cost is within the top 30% globally, enhancing the company's profitability [2][4]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The company has a gross smelting capacity of 2.2 million tons, benefiting from low transportation costs along the Yangtze River and sales of by-products like sulfuric acid. The net profit margin has remained stable between 2.2% and 2.5% over the past decade, with a conservative estimate of 700 RMB profit per ton [2][4][7]. - **Market Valuation**: Currently, the market capitalization of Tongling Nonferrous is approximately 44 billion RMB, significantly undervalued compared to an estimated 60 billion RMB based on steady-state profits of 6.7 billion RMB and an industry average P/E ratio of 9 [2][5][6]. - **Risk Mitigation**: Despite negative spot processing fees, over 90% of the company's procurement is through long-term contracts, which mitigates the risk of losses. Additional revenue from by-products like sulfuric acid and precious metals further supports overall profitability [2][7]. - **Contribution of Mirador Mine**: The Mirador mine has reserves exceeding 6 million tons with a grade of 0.48%, and actual output grade reaching 0.6%. In the first five months of the year, the mine achieved a net profit of 24,000 RMB per ton, making it a significant profit driver for the company [2][8][14]. - **Future Growth Potential**: The company's growth potential lies in the expansion of the Mirador mine and the addition of 500,000 tons of smelting capacity. However, there is a short-term risk of reduced profits due to income tax recognition, which could present a buying opportunity [2][9][10]. - **Community Integration**: The Mirador mine is noted for its deep integration with the local community, ensuring that at least 52% of the profits remain local, which stabilizes operations and aligns interests with local governments [3][11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Comparison with Other Mines**: Other Chinese-operated large copper mines in South America, such as Las Bambas and Toromocho, have faced operational challenges, while Mirador has maintained stability due to its community engagement strategy [13]. - **Profit Forecasts**: For the first five months of the year, the net profit of the Mirador mine's operating entity reached 170 million USD, with a net profit margin of 29%. Once the second phase is fully operational, annual profits could reach 6.4 billion RMB, although tax implications may reduce the net profit to approximately 952 million RMB in 2025 [14].

Group 1 - The "You Point, I Help" initiative by Anhui Province's market regulation department aims to enhance product quality through a structured support model involving enterprises, regulatory bodies, and technical experts [1][2] - As of June, the initiative has assisted 1,301 enterprises, resolving 401 quality issues and contributing approximately 340 million yuan to industrial output [1] - The initiative has led to significant technological breakthroughs, such as the development of new products with improved performance characteristics in the copper industry [1] Group 2 - The program allows industrial product manufacturers to submit quality assistance requests through both online and offline channels, ensuring that the most pressing quality issues are addressed [2] - Anhui Province has promoted mutual assistance among enterprises, with 62 industrial product manufacturers participating in this initiative to enhance quality through collaboration [2] - Future efforts will focus on increasing awareness and effectiveness of the "You Point, I Help" program and encouraging enterprise collaboration to further improve product quality [2]