Investment Rating - The report highlights a "Buy" rating for seven selected stocks within the property value chain, indicating a positive outlook for these companies as they are well-positioned to benefit from recovering housing upgrade needs and building renovation demand [3][34]. Core Insights - The property value chain is expected to see a significant shift towards domestic demand, driven by potential policy support aimed at mitigating external uncertainties. This shift is projected to create a total addressable market (TAM) of Rmb5.7 trillion by 2035, representing a 70% increase compared to 2024 [3][34]. - The report anticipates an average 5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in topline revenue for the property value chain companies through 2035, with a notable improvement in profitability and dividend yields due to operational efficiencies and disciplined capital expenditures [5][34]. Summary by Sections Property Value Chain Stocks - The report identifies seven stocks (CRL, Yuhong, BNBM, Kinlong, Robam, KE, and Greentown Service) as beneficiaries of domestic stimulus, all rated as "Buy" [3][34][18]. Executive Summary - The property construction value chain, which constitutes approximately 30% of China's GDP, has faced challenges due to the downturn. However, potential policy support for domestic demand is expected to accelerate housing upgrades and boost secondary market transactions [29][34]. Implications for the Value Chain - The report outlines three main implications for the value chain: a decline in demand for building products, a consolidation of the developer industry, and a significant shift towards secondary market transactions, which are projected to account for 66% of total housing transactions by 2035 [31][32][51]. Housing Market Outlook - By 2035, housing demand is expected to be 40% below peak levels, with a significant portion coming from Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities. The secondary market is projected to overtake the primary market in terms of transaction volume and value [42][51]. Renovation Demand - Renovation demand is anticipated to nearly double by 2035, contributing approximately 60% of total construction gross floor area (GFA), which will help offset the decline in new builds [54][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The sales decline of the top 100 real estate companies has stabilized, with a year-on-year sales amount decrease of 7.8% and a sales area decrease of 18.9% from January to April 2025, showing a significant narrowing compared to the previous year [5][6] - Cement prices continue to decline, while prices for fiberglass from small and medium enterprises are loosening [5][6] - Recommendations include focusing on the African supply chain and computing power chain, with leading companies in existing markets being the main focus for the year [8][9] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In April 2025, the year-on-year sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 10.3%, and the sales area decreased by 18.3%, showing slight improvement compared to the previous month [5][6] - The sales amount in April decreased by 12.4% month-on-month, which is better than 2024 but weaker than the average from 2018 to 2024 [5] Cement Market - As of late April, domestic cement market demand has slightly improved, with a national shipment rate of 49.3%, up by approximately 2.1 percentage points month-on-month but down by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [6][23] - The national average cement price is 391.94 yuan/ton, down by 3.06 yuan/ton month-on-month but up by 27.74 yuan/ton year-on-year [24] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market is experiencing weak transactions, with limited price adjustments and general market demand [7][34] - The national average glass price is 75.13 yuan/weight box, up by 0.06 yuan/weight box month-on-month but down by 17.23 yuan/weight box year-on-year [37] Fiberglass Market - The market for non-alkali roving has seen price loosening among some small and medium enterprises, with overall trading activity declining [42] - The electronic yarn market prices have remained stable, with downstream purchasing being demand-driven [42] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the African supply chain, particularly highlighting Keda Manufacturing as a leading local player with advantages in production, channels, and brand [8] - In the computing power chain, Zhongcai Technology is recommended as a leading domestic special fiberglass cloth manufacturer benefiting from domestic substitution [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The short-term economic downturn is causing the real estate chain to hover at the bottom, but the overall direction remains positive with expectations for recovery in the home improvement sector by Q3 2025 [3][4] - The cement market is experiencing a slight price decline, with the national average price at 387.7 RMB/ton, down 3.2 RMB/ton from last week but up 29.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [3][19] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand for building materials, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting domestic consumption [15] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The building materials sector saw a decline of 2.14% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.43% [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of low-valuation leading companies and expansion-oriented firms as key investment targets [3][4] 2. Bulk Building Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The national cement market price has decreased by 0.8% this week, with regional variations noted [18] - The average cement inventory level is at 61.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from last week [27] - The report anticipates a weak but stable price trend moving forward due to ongoing supply-demand adjustments [4][18] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The glass fiber industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with demand from wind power and thermoplastics sectors continuing to grow [12] - The report suggests that leading companies may benefit from structural advantages and cost efficiencies [12] 2.3 Glass - The glass industry is currently facing a weak balance between supply and demand, with slow inventory depletion [13] - The report indicates that rising costs from petroleum coke may impact profitability, but leading companies are expected to maintain competitive advantages [14] 3. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that government policies are increasingly focused on stimulating domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to positively impact the building materials sector [15] - The anticipated implementation of "old-for-new" policies in 2025 is expected to further boost demand for home improvement materials [15] 4. Weekly Market Review - The report provides a detailed analysis of price changes in the cement market, highlighting significant regional differences [20] - It also includes a summary of the performance of various building materials companies, emphasizing those with strong growth potential and competitive advantages [16][17]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The new housing market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in new home transactions in major cities, indicating a potential boost in demand for construction materials [2][20] - The cement market is experiencing a slight price decline, but demand is expected to improve as weather conditions stabilize and construction activities pick up [3][23] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption and infrastructure investment, particularly in light of the "equal tariff" environment, which is expected to strengthen domestic demand [7][9] Summary by Sections Housing Market - In the 18th week of the year, new home transaction area in 30 major cities reached 165.19 million square meters, up 21% year-on-year and 6.19% month-on-month [2][20] - The total transaction area for new homes in these cities is 29.32 million square meters, showing no year-on-year change [2][20] - Second-hand home transactions in 15 monitored cities increased by 56% year-on-year but saw a significant month-on-month decline [21] Cement Market - The national average cement price is 390.83 yuan per ton, down 0.8% from the previous week, with price increases mainly in Liaoning and Jilin [3][23] - The cement market is expected to stabilize as demand improves and companies engage in peak-shifting production practices [23] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - **Oriental Yuhong**, **Weixing New Materials**, and **Tubaobao** for their strong operational resilience and high dividends [7] - **China Construction** and **China Communications Construction** as beneficiaries of increased infrastructure investment [7] - **Jinchengxin** for its strong performance in copper resource development [7] - **Heilongjiang Hongda** and **Xuefeng Technology** in the civil explosives sector due to high demand [7] Industry Trends - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic substitution in various sectors, particularly in ship coatings and industrial coatings, with companies like **Maijia Xincai** and **Songjing Coatings** positioned to benefit [7] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is expected to gain momentum, benefiting international engineering companies such as **China Construction** and **China Metallurgical** [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The market is transitioning from "weak reality, weak expectations" to "stable reality, strong expectations," with a focus on EPS and PE dynamics. The current trading logic reflects a typical "Davis Double Play" scenario, where PE fluctuations are crucial for market performance [5] - The report suggests that the cyclical recovery is expected to be sustainable, with potential policy support for domestic demand, particularly in consumption and manufacturing sectors. This is seen as a more favorable and sustainable choice compared to traditional investments [5] - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions indicate a turning point for many cyclical products, with EPS expected to bottom out before supply and demand, leading to a potential recovery in performance [5] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index (Shenwan) decreased by 2.1%, with sub-sectors like cement and glass fiber also showing declines of 2.2% and 2.8% respectively. Notable stock performances included Sichuan Jinding (+13.3%) and Hanjian Heshan (+8.0%) [9] 1.2. Industry Dynamics - In the first four months of 2025, top 100 real estate companies spent 360.8 billion yuan on land, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. However, their sales totaled 1,119.86 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year [16] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting energy-saving and carbon-reduction technologies across various sectors, including construction materials [16] 2. Data Tracking 2.1. Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement is 387.7 yuan/ton, down 3.2 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 29.7 yuan/ton year-on-year. The cement inventory ratio is 61.7%, down 0.1 percentage points month-on-month [17] 2.2. Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1,423.0 yuan/ton, up 1.3 yuan/ton month-on-month but down 393.7 yuan/ton year-on-year. Inventory levels have increased by 0.1% month-on-month [32] 2.3. Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 yuan/sqm, stable month-on-month but down 4.1 yuan/sqm year-on-year. The production capacity is 98,690 tons/day, up 2.1% month-on-month [37] 2.4. Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4,705.0 yuan/ton, down 40.0 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 525.0 yuan/ton year-on-year [44] 2.5. Carbon Fiber - The average price for large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 yuan/kg, stable month-on-month but down 2.0 yuan/kg year-on-year. The average operating rate for carbon fiber companies is 60.62%, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month [47] 3. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, highlighting stock prices, market capitalization, EPS, PE, and PB ratios for various firms in the construction materials sector [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company's performance is driven by robust growth in its two main business segments, with significant contributions from both waterproofing and coating businesses. The international business is also showing strong growth [6]. - The company reported a revenue of 6.246 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.09% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.45%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 842 million yuan, up 2.46% year-on-year and 67.82% quarter-on-quarter [6]. - The company is expanding its coating business, which saw a remarkable revenue increase of 111.44% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 908 million yuan [6]. - The report forecasts steady revenue growth for the company, with projected revenues of 29.51 billion yuan in 2025, 32.93 billion yuan in 2026, and 35.27 billion yuan in 2027 [2][8]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financial metrics include: - Revenue growth rates of 15.14% for 2024, 14.30% for 2025, 11.58% for 2026, and 7.10% for 2027 [2]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.48 billion yuan in 2025, 5.19 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.74 billion yuan in 2027 [2]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 2.65 yuan in 2025, 3.07 yuan in 2026, and 3.40 yuan in 2027 [2]. - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 13.15 in 2024 to 8.35 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [2][8]. Business Strategy - The company is implementing a "One Body, Two Wings" strategy, focusing on expanding its waterproofing and coating businesses while solidifying its leading position in the gypsum board market [6]. - A new industrial coating production base is planned in Anhui, which will enhance the company's market competitiveness in central and southwestern China [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrated steady revenue growth and maintained its leading position in the gypsum board industry, with a focus on cost control and expansion in the coatings sector [2][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 25.821 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.647 billion yuan, up 3.49% [1][2]. - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 3.558 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.80% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.246 billion yuan, a 5.09% increase, and a net profit of 842 million yuan, up 2.46% [1][4]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 29.88%, remaining stable year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 14.43%, down 1.42 percentage points [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin improved to 28.94%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company’s revenue from direct sales and distribution channels was 3.198 billion yuan and 22.623 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 45.72% and 11.82% [2]. - The revenue from gypsum boards, keels, waterproof membranes, and coatings in 2024 was 13.107 billion yuan, 2.287 billion yuan, 3.322 billion yuan, and 4.141 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year changes of -4.79%, -0.13%, +19.23%, and +327.99% [2]. Cost Control and Market Position - The company has effectively controlled costs through centralized procurement, equipment upgrades, and cost-saving initiatives [5]. - As of the end of 2024, the company held a market share of approximately 61.4% in the gypsum board industry, with a production capacity of 3.563 billion square meters [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company completed the restructuring of Jia Baoli in 2024, establishing a national production capacity for coatings of 1.3266 million tons, with a utilization rate of 51.88% [5]. - A stock incentive plan was introduced to boost morale among core employees and enhance development confidence [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported steady growth in Q1 2025, driven by its two main business segments, with significant contributions from both domestic and international markets [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.09% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.45% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 842 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.46% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 67.82% [1]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 819 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 67.36% [1]. Business Segments - The waterproofing business generated revenue of 1.054 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 10.54% year-on-year, with a net profit of 43 million yuan, an increase of 19.89% [2]. - The coatings business saw significant growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 908 million yuan, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 111.44%, and a net profit of 44 million yuan, up 48.17% [2]. - International business performance was strong, with overseas revenue increasing by 73% year-on-year and net profit rising by 143.08% [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 28.94%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.30 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.96 percentage points [3]. - The operating expense ratio was 13.69%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.26 percentage points [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 13.68%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.27 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.01 percentage points [3]. Strategic Developments - The company plans to invest in a new industrial coatings production base in Anqing, Anhui, with an annual capacity of 20,000 tons, aimed at expanding its market presence in Central and Southwest China [4]. - The "one body, two wings" strategy is expected to enhance the company's competitive position and contribute to revenue growth from both the waterproofing and coatings segments [4]. - The company continues to strengthen its leading position in the gypsum board market, further solidifying its market share [4].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.23% on April 30, with 21 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by the computer and automotive sectors, which increased by 2.33% and 1.59% respectively [2] - The banking and steel sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 2.09% and 1.35% respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 1.431 billion yuan, with 13 sectors seeing net inflows [2] - The computer sector had the highest net inflow of 2.428 billion yuan, while the automotive sector followed with a net inflow of 2.231 billion yuan [2] Construction Materials Sector - The construction materials sector declined by 0.82%, with a net capital outflow of 33.1015 million yuan [3] - Among the 71 stocks in this sector, 26 stocks rose, including 2 that hit the daily limit, while 38 stocks fell [3] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow in the construction materials sector were Jiuding New Materials (7.377 million yuan), ST Nachuan (3.575 million yuan), and Sichuan Jinding (2.219 million yuan) [3][5] Notable Stocks in Construction Materials - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Tibet Tianlu (-7.277 million yuan), Beixin Building Materials (-3.740 million yuan), and Jianfeng Group (-2.435 million yuan) [3][4] - Other notable stocks with significant capital outflows included Conch Cement (-2.317 million yuan) and Honghe Technology (-2.014 million yuan) [4]