Core Insights - The liquor market is experiencing increased activity as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach, with a notable acceleration in the sales of white liquor, although prices are declining [1][21] - High-end liquor products are seeing a price drop, while low-end products remain stable, prompting distributors to launch various promotional activities to clear inventory [1][21] Price Trends - In Guangzhou, 15 products have seen a decline in retail prices, including high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, with price reductions ranging from several to dozens of yuan [2][3] - Moutai's average price is approximately 2065 yuan, down about 40 yuan from the previous period, while Wuliangye's price decreased by 11 yuan to around 910 yuan [2][3] - In Shenzhen, Moutai's average retail price is 2102.91 yuan, with significant price variations between online and offline channels [9][11] Sales Dynamics - Distributors report a noticeable shrinkage in demand compared to last year, leading to aggressive pricing strategies to stimulate sales [5][21] - High-end products are experiencing increased sales, while low-alcohol products are gaining popularity, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [21] Regional Insights - In Shenzhen, the price fluctuations have stabilized as demand increases, with expectations of a 20% rise in high-end product sales in September [10][21] - In Dongguan, the market shows a downward trend in mid-to-high-end product prices, with 14 out of 18 products experiencing price drops [17][19] Promotional Strategies - Liquor distributors are implementing various promotional strategies, such as discounts and bundled offers, to boost sales ahead of the festive season [3][21] - Some stores are offering promotions like "buy five boxes, get one free" to increase sales volume, contributing to the overall price decline [3][5]

Market Overview - On September 19, the liquor sector rose by 0.08% compared to the previous trading day, with *ST Rock leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 0.3%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13070.86, down 0.04% [1] Individual Stock Performance - *ST Rock (600696) closed at 6.28, up 5.02% with a trading volume of 73,200 shares and a turnover of 44.78 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Shede Liquor (600702) at 65.50, up 1.99% with a turnover of 670 million yuan [1] - Si Gu Dian (000799) at 69.28, up 1.96% with a turnover of 1.327 billion yuan [1] - Yilite (600197) at 15.62, up 1.69% with a turnover of 7.51 million yuan [1] - Luzhou Laojiao (000568) at 134.85, up 0.86% with a turnover of 1.139 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector experienced a net outflow of 312 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 445 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks shows: - Jiu Gu Dian (000799) had a net inflow of 25.85 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Yanghe Distillery (002304) had a net inflow of 17.60 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - *ST Rock (600696) had a net inflow of 8.87 million yuan from institutional investors [3] Summary of Trading Activity - The trading activity indicates a mixed sentiment in the liquor sector, with some stocks gaining while others faced declines [2][3] - The overall market trend reflects cautious investor behavior, with significant capital movements between institutional and retail investors [2][3]

（企业业绩说明会） 9月19日，酒鬼酒参与2025年湖南辖区上市公司集体接待日。期间，管理层透露，公司目前与胖东来只 有"酒鬼·自由爱"一款合作产品，后续将根据市场情况考虑是否开发新的合作产品。公司低度酒产品分 为核心产品低度化和适合年轻人群的低度产品，目前核心产品的低度化产品正在逐步上市，面向年轻群 体的产品正在研发当中。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is approaching a critical seasonal test in Q3 2025, with cautious market sentiment prevailing. Goldman Sachs predicts that Q3 2025 may represent a low point in valuation for the industry, with some stocks already reflecting a "bottoming" expectation. Target prices for leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye have been adjusted upwards [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The liquor industry is facing dual pressures from ongoing anti-extravagance policies and a reduction in the length of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, leading to weakened retail momentum [2]. - Companies are focusing on inventory normalization through measures such as waiving prepayments and controlling shipment volumes, which may pressure short-term performance but help return inventory levels to normal [2]. - Despite a significant decline in wholesale prices for Moutai and Wuliangye, some retailers have slightly increased end prices in anticipation of brand-controlled inventory to support profits [2][3]. Group 2: Valuation and Stock Performance - The stock prices of liquor companies have risen by 24% since Q3, with a 17% increase in price-to-earnings ratios, indicating that the market has already absorbed the impact of policy changes [2]. - The average target price for liquor stocks has been raised by 6%, with mid-to-high-end liquor valuation multiples adjusted upwards by 13% to 19% [2]. - The high dividend yields of leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye provide a valuation safety net, with potential price increases of 20% to 30% based on normalized earnings projections for 2027 [4]. Group 3: Company-Specific Adjustments - Moutai's target price has been adjusted from 1742 yuan to 1724 yuan, reflecting a 3% to 4% decrease in earnings expectations due to policy impacts [5]. - Wuliangye's target price has been raised from 139 yuan to 145 yuan, despite a 5% to 8% reduction in earnings expectations, as its valuation multiple has been increased from 17 times to 18.5 times [5]. - Other companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongjiu have also seen adjustments in their target prices and earnings expectations, reflecting varying degrees of resilience and market conditions [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current "low point" in Q3 is viewed as a critical phase for the industry, with inventory control measures potentially laying the groundwork for recovery in 2026 as policies ease [6]. - Investment recommendations focus on leading companies with strong dividend yields and brand strength, as well as those with significant valuation adjustments and earnings resilience [7].

Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant pullback on September 18, with the Food ETF (515710) dropping over 2% during intraday trading before closing down 1.41% [1] - Major liquor stocks, including Shede Liquor, Yanghe Brewery, and Luzhou Laojiao, saw declines exceeding 2%, while leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye fell over 1% [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Despite the recent pullback, there has been a notable influx of capital into the food and beverage sector, with the Food ETF (515710) recording a net subscription of 24.1 million CNY over the past five trading days [1] - The food and beverage sector is currently viewed as having a favorable valuation, with the Food ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 21.12, placing it at a low point historically [4] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Kweichow Moutai ranked third in the Kantar BrandZ Most Valuable Chinese Brands 2025 list, with a brand value of 80.023 billion USD, marking its sixth consecutive year in the top three [3] - Analysts suggest that as policy pressures ease, there is potential for a weak recovery in demand for liquor, particularly with the upcoming holiday season expected to improve sales [3][6] - The liquor industry is seen as being at a low valuation point, with expectations for gradual improvement in fundamentals as the market stabilizes [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of JiuGuiJiu has experienced fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 24.32% but a recent decline of 6.67% over the past five trading days [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of September 18, JiuGuiJiu's stock price was 68.40 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 22.225 billion CNY [1] - The stock has seen a 68.18% increase over the past 60 days, while it has decreased by 6.67% in the last five trading days [2] - The stock has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" twice this year, with the latest instance on August 20, where it recorded a net purchase of 1.03 billion CNY [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, JiuGuiJiu reported a revenue of 561 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 43.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.955 million CNY, down 92.60% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.151 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 942 million CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, JiuGuiJiu had 136,000 shareholders, a decrease of 4.4% from the previous period, with an average of 2,388 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 4.61% [2] - Major shareholders include the China Securities White Wine Index A and the Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with varying changes in their holdings [3]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline on September 18, with the Food ETF (515710) dropping by 0.63% [1] - Within the sector, liquor stocks were notably weak, with companies like Yingjia Gongjiu falling over 2% and others like Jiu Gui Jiu and Lu Zhou Lao Jiao declining more than 1% [1] - Despite the current downturn, some analysts suggest that the liquor sector may have entered a bottoming phase, with potential for recovery during the upcoming festive season [1][4] Group 2 - According to Open Source Securities, the retail sales growth rate has slowed down, primarily due to diminishing effects of the "old-for-new" policy and a gradual recovery in consumer demand [3] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from improving macroeconomic conditions and rising consumer income and willingness to spend [3] - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a low point, making it a potentially good time for investment [3] Group 3 - Future outlook indicates that the liquor sector is undergoing adjustments due to policy impacts, with a noticeable decline in demand [4] - There are signs of recovery in consumer behavior, particularly in personal drinking and social gatherings, which could lead to improved sales figures [4] - Analysts predict that the worst phase for the liquor sector has passed, and there is cautious optimism for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [4] Group 4 - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry index, with a significant portion of its holdings in leading high-end liquor stocks [5] - Investors can also access core assets in the food and beverage sector through the Food ETF linked funds [5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a recommendation for strong brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as Shanxi Fenjiu, which has a clear growth path in a counter-cyclical environment [5]. Core Insights - The industry is currently in a phase of accelerated bottoming, transitioning from "passive clearing" to "active adjustment" due to ongoing pressures from excess supply and demand scenarios [3][5]. - The first half of 2025 saw a negative growth in revenue and net profit for major liquor companies, marking the first negative growth in this cycle [15]. - The report highlights a structural opportunity during the volume adjustment period, with market pricing increasingly favoring dividend yield and market share [3][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The white liquor industry faced challenges in the first half of 2025, including slow macroeconomic recovery and strict alcohol prohibition policies, leading to a decline in consumption scenarios and continued pressure on demand [5]. - The overall revenue and net profit for 17 major liquor companies were 2368.3 billion and 944.6 billion respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 0.4% and 0.9% [15]. Performance Analysis - In Q2 2025, the revenue and net profit for the industry were 867.2 billion and 313.4 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.7% and 7.3%, marking the first negative growth in revenue during this cycle [15]. - High-end liquor maintained positive growth, while the mid-range and regional brands experienced declines [20][22]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the market is shifting focus from short-term recovery scenarios to verifying the bottom of demand trends through year-on-year comparisons [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the third quarter, driven by seasonal consumption events such as Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which may accelerate the bottoming process of the fundamentals [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brands with strong market positions and growth potential, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and regional leaders like Guyi Gongjiu and Jinhui Jiu [5].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a "low-degree competition" as several companies, including Wuliangye and Gujinggongjiu, have launched low-degree liquor products to attract younger consumers and adapt to changing market dynamics [1][5]. Industry Trends - Since late August, multiple liquor companies have introduced low-degree white liquor, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and market strategies [1]. - The overall number of large-scale liquor enterprises in China has decreased, with 887 companies reported in mid-2025, down over 100 from the previous year [4]. - The production of white liquor has declined by 5.8% year-on-year, with sales revenue slightly increasing by 0.19% to 330.42 billion yuan, while profits fell by 10.93% to 87.69 billion yuan [4]. Market Response - Retailers have been cautious about stocking new low-degree products, with many still focusing on high-degree liquor, which dominates the market [2][3]. - The current market for low-degree liquor is primarily driven by local brands, with only a small percentage of low-degree options available in stores [2][3]. Consumer Insights - The primary consumer base for liquor remains middle-aged and older individuals, with younger consumers showing a preference for purchasing low-degree liquor through online channels or convenience stores [3]. - A survey indicated that only 19% of young consumers prefer white liquor, while 52% favor beer and 29% prefer foreign or fruit wines [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Major liquor companies are launching low-degree products as a strategy to engage younger consumers and expand into casual drinking scenarios [5]. - Companies like Gujinggongjiu and Wuliangye have recently introduced new low-degree products, indicating a competitive push in this segment [5]. Challenges - The definition of low-degree liquor varies, complicating market positioning and consumer understanding [6]. - The industry faces challenges in establishing consumption habits and market recognition for low-degree liquor, as traditional consumption scenarios remain dominated by high-degree products [7].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a volatile pullback on September 17, with the Food ETF (515710) opening lower and maintaining a downward trend throughout the day, closing down 0.31% [1][2] - Several liquor stocks, particularly Kweichow Moutai, faced significant declines, with Jinhuijiu down 3%, and others like Jiu Gui Jiu and She De Jiu Ye dropping over 2% [1][3] - The overall sentiment in the liquor market is affected by recent clarifications from Kweichow Moutai regarding false promotional activities, emphasizing the stability of their distribution channels [1][3] Group 2 - Pacific Securities noted that the liquor sector is at a "fundamental bottom and low valuation" phase, with potential for weak recovery in demand as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches [3][4] - The food and beverage sector is seeing mixed performance, with meat products and liquor leading gains, while snacks and beer are experiencing declines [3][4] - Current valuations in the food and beverage sector are at low levels, suggesting a favorable time for investment, with the Food ETF's price-to-earnings ratio at 21.12, marking a low point in the last decade [3][4] Group 3 - Everbright Securities indicated that the liquor sector is undergoing adjustments due to policy impacts, with a noticeable decline in demand, but a potential recovery is expected in the latter half of the year [4][5] - Xiangcai Securities highlighted the low valuation levels in the sector, suggesting opportunities for alpha generation through high-quality stocks [4][5] - The focus should be on companies with stable demand and strong risk resistance, as well as those innovating in new products and channels [5]