责任编辑：栎树 A股市场白酒股普涨，其中，酒鬼酒、泸州老窖涨超2%，迎驾贡酒、洋河股份、顺鑫农业、古井贡 酒、今世缘涨超1%，茅台、口子窖、五粮液涨近1%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000568 | 泸州老窖 | નીક | 2.17 | 1869亿 | 2.64 | | 000799 | 酒鬼酒 | 4 | 2.07 | 161亿 | -10.64 | | 603198 | 迎驾贡酒 | 1 | 1.48 | 345亿 | -16.97 | | 002304 | 洋河股份 | -06- | 1.46 | 1038 Z | -11.98 | | 000596 | 古井贡酒 | 来 | 1.42 | 757亿 | -13.74 | | 600809 | 山西汾酒 | -06- | 1.25 | 2261亿 | 4.15 | | 000860 | 顺鑫农业 | 来 | 1.19 | 119亿 | -16.46 | | 603369 | 今世缘 | | 1.10 | 505亿 | -7 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市値 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000568 | 泸州老窖 | 来 | 2.17 | 1869亿 | 2.64 | | 000799 | 酒鬼酒 | 4 | 2.07 | 161亿 | -10.64 | | 603198 | 迎驾贡酒 | 1 | 1.48 | 345亿 | -16.97 | | 002304 | 洋河股份 | -06- | 1.46 | 1038亿 | -11.98 | | 000596 | 古井贡酒 | 来 | 1.42 | 757亿 | -13.74 | | 600809 | 山西汾酒 | 来 | 1.25 | 2261亿 | 4.15 | | 000860 | 顺鑫农业 | 张 | 1.19 | 119亿 | -16.46 | | 603369 | 今世缘 | | 1.10 | 505亿 | -7.98 | | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 1 | 0.94 | 18247亿 | -2.82 | | 603589 | 口子窖 | -306- | 0.89 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Jiu Gui Jiu Co., Ltd. shows a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first quarter of 2025, indicating potential challenges for the company moving forward [1]. Financial Performance - As of July 29, 2025, Jiu Gui Jiu's stock closed at 48.69 yuan, down 0.39% with a turnover rate of 2.33% and a trading volume of 75,600 hands, amounting to a transaction value of 365 million yuan [1]. - The company's total operating revenue for Q1 2025 was 344 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.34% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 31.71 million yuan, down 56.78% year-on-year [1]. - The non-recurring net profit was 31.45 million yuan, a decrease of 54.76% year-on-year [1]. - The liquidity ratio was 3.110, the quick ratio was 1.316, and the debt-to-asset ratio was 20.57% [1]. Capital Flow - On the day of reporting, the main capital outflow was 34.04 million yuan, accounting for 9.32% of the transaction value [1]. - Large orders saw a net outflow of 21.99 million yuan, representing 6.02% of the transaction value, while small orders had a net inflow of 38.09 million yuan, making up 10.43% of the transaction value [1]. Company Overview - Jiu Gui Jiu Co., Ltd. was established in 1997 and is located in the Xiangxi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, primarily engaged in the manufacturing of liquor, beverages, and refined tea [1]. - The company has a registered capital of 3.25 billion yuan and a paid-in capital of 1.01 billion yuan [1]. - The legal representative of the company is Cheng Jun [1]. Investment and Intellectual Property - Jiu Gui Jiu has made investments in five external companies and participated in 1,265 bidding projects [2]. - The company holds 420 trademark registrations and 398 patents, along with 182 administrative licenses [2].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperforming the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is showing signs of recovery as companies actively launch new products to adapt to changing consumer demands. The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan liquor index is 18.51X, which is at a reasonable low level compared to the past decade [2][11] - The beverage sector, particularly beer and soft drinks, is expected to benefit from upcoming consumption promotion policies and adjustments to alcohol bans, which will drive sales recovery [3][12] - The pre-processed food and seasoning sectors are leading the market, with a focus on companies that can enhance efficiency and market share through cost reduction and product diversification [13][19] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From July 21 to July 25, the food and beverage sector increased by 0.74%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.69%. Notable increases were seen in pre-processed foods (+1.97%) and health products (+1.88%) [1][20] Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor sector increased by 0.94%, outperforming the overall food and beverage sector. Key players like Tianyoude Liquor saw significant gains, potentially linked to local infrastructure investments [2][11] - Recommendations include strong alpha companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, as well as beta companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye [2][19] Beer and Beverage Sector Insights - The beer sector rose by 1.06%, with Budweiser Asia and Chongqing Beer leading the gains. Management changes at Zhujiang Beer are expected to positively impact the company [3][12] - The soft drink sector also performed well, with notable increases from brands like Nongfu Spring (+8.1%) [3][14] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, strong alpha companies benefiting from market concentration include Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [19] - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with cost reduction and market share enhancement strategies are recommended, including Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [19] Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE ratio is 21.1X, ranking it 21st among primary industries. The highest valuations are seen in other liquor (55.83X) and health products (48.77X) [26][27]

从预告显示的数据来看，白酒行业整体增速明显放缓，企业营收和净利润普遍下滑，部分企业由盈转亏，行业洗牌正在进入深水区，市场格局重 塑的步伐正在加快。 当前，白酒行业仍处于深度调整期，市场表现整体低迷。7月中旬，多家白酒企业披露了上半年业绩预告，惨淡的数据如同一面镜子，映照出整个 行业的阵痛与转型。 酒鬼酒业绩预告显示，上半年净利润为800万-1200万元，较上年同期的1.21亿元下滑90.08%-93.39%。预计报告期实现营业收入5.6亿元左右，较上 年同期下降43%左右，几乎腰斩。酒鬼酒在业绩预告中表示，今年上半年，受多重因素影响，白酒企业经营进一步承压，马太效应下中小酒企压 力更大，经销商回款意愿谨慎。 在这样的环境下，面对这样的市场表现，我们或许应该重新审视对白酒上市公司的预期评判标准，与其苛责短期业绩，不如给予更多理解与耐 心，因为真正的行业复苏，往往需要时间。 而当前白酒行业的困境，是多重因素叠加的结果。 首先，消费场景萎缩，市场需求疲软。新"禁酒令"的出台进一步压缩了高端白酒市场。同时，商务宴请、高端宴席等传统白酒消费场景持续承 压。此外，消费者代际更替，消费者消费意愿往果酒、低度酒偏移，传统白酒 ...

2025年白酒中报预告季，分化与寒意扑面而来。 同样处于业绩断崖式下滑态势的还有酒鬼酒，公司预计上半年实现营业收入5.6亿元左右，较上年同期下降43%左右；盈利800万元-1200万元，同比下降 90.08%—93.39%，预计上半年盈利800万元-1200万元，同比下降89.72%—93.15%；基本每股收益0.0246元/股—0.0369元/股。 此外，水井坊净利润也在急速下挫。据水井坊披露的业绩预告，公司预计2025年半年度公司实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为1.05亿元，预计减少约1.37 亿元，同比下降56.52%；预计2025年半年度公司实现营业收入14.98亿元，预计减少2.21亿元，同比下降12.84%；预计扣除非经常性损益的净利润为4849万 元。 | 上市公司 | 上 দ | 同 比 | 上半年预 | 同比变动 | | 上半年预盈 | 同比变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 年 预 | 变动 | 图 | | | (扣非后) | | | | 收 | | | | | | | | 顺鑫农业 | / | / | 1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the successful launch of "Jiu Gui · Zi You Ai," a new product from Jiu Gui Jiu in collaboration with the popular supermarket chain Pang Dong Lai, highlighting its strong sales performance despite the off-season for liquor consumption [1][2][4]. Group 1: Product Launch and Sales Performance - "Jiu Gui · Zi You Ai" was launched on July 19 and quickly sold out across various platforms, including Pang Dong Lai's official mini-program and Douyin Mall [1]. - The product's popularity led to a tightening of purchase limits at Pang Dong Lai stores, reducing the maximum purchase from 5 boxes to 2 boxes per customer [1]. - The stock price of Jiu Gui Jiu increased by over 20% from mid-June to mid-July, reflecting market optimism regarding the new product's potential to generate significant sales [2]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Financial Projections - Industry experts predict that "Jiu Gui · Zi You Ai" could contribute several hundred million yuan in annual sales, with expectations of reaching around 1 billion yuan by 2025 [2][5]. - The product is priced at 200 yuan, which is considered mid-range in the liquor market, and is expected to perform better than previous collaborations due to its higher price point and brand recognition [5][8]. Group 3: Strategic Implications for Jiu Gui Jiu - The collaboration with Pang Dong Lai provides Jiu Gui Jiu with access to new retail channels, particularly in Henan, a significant liquor consumption province [6]. - The company faces a strategic choice between maintaining price integrity or sacrificing it for volume, which could impact long-term brand positioning [17][18]. - The introduction of "Jiu Gui · Zi You Ai" may allow Jiu Gui Jiu to diversify its product offerings and reduce reliance on traditional distribution channels [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing severe challenges in 2025 due to a combination of policy adjustments, consumption structure transformation, and deep competition, leading to declining production, prices, and profits [2][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Major liquor companies such as Shunxin Agriculture, Shui Jing Fang, and Jiu Gui Jiu have reported significant declines in net profits, with some experiencing drops of over 90% [2][3]. - The overall industry is experiencing a "volume and price decline," with production volume down 7.6% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, and a cumulative decline of 69.5% from 2016 to 2024 [5][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight increase in revenue of 0.38% for large-scale liquor enterprises, but total profits decreased by 0.73%, indicating a clear downward trend [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The industry is facing "three heavy cold currents": persistent price fluctuations, high inventory levels, and a collapse in consumption scenarios [8][10][11]. - Price declines are evident, with liquor prices dropping by 2.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and over 60% of companies experiencing price inversions [8][9]. - Inventory pressure is significant, with an average inventory turnover period of 900 days, and over 58% of distributors reporting increased stock levels [10][11]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - Consumer demand is shifting towards more rational spending, with a notable decrease in high-end liquor purchases and a preference for lower-priced products [12][13]. - The traditional consumption scenarios, such as business banquets and gift-giving, are shrinking, leading to a decline in sales during peak seasons [11][12]. - The rise of low-alcohol and foreign liquor preferences among younger consumers is further diluting the market for traditional liquor [11][12]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Liquor companies are urged to adapt by targeting the mass market with affordable and quality products, as the market for low-cost liquor is expected to grow significantly [14]. - Product innovation is essential, with a focus on lower alcohol content to meet the health-conscious preferences of younger consumers [14]. - Companies are exploring new sales channels, including online platforms and instant retail, to enhance market reach and efficiency [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Views - The liquor industry is strengthening its internal capabilities, with companies focusing on management, product, and channel improvements. The industry is currently at a low valuation and is expected to stabilize as sales pressure eases [2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, East Peak Beverage reported impressive mid-year results, while the industry continues to show high growth potential despite intense competition [3]. - The report highlights the ongoing transformation in product selection at Sam's Club, emphasizing operational efficiency through local supply chain adjustments [4]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor sector is in a phase of continuous improvement, with major companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu enhancing their management and product offerings. The industry is currently experiencing a seasonal downturn, but valuations are low, suggesting potential for recovery [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The beer segment is advised to focus on high-growth products and structural performance, with companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer being highlighted. East Peak Beverage's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 10.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.37% [3]. Food Sector - Sam's Club is undergoing a significant product selection transformation, with a shift towards national best-selling items to improve operational efficiency. The report notes that the low-temperature dairy market is performing better than the ambient temperature segment [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential recovery of the liquor industry, particularly the white wine sector, highlighting that stock prices may rebound before actual performance improvements are observed [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is a significant influx of off-market funds into the liquor industry as investors anticipate a recovery, leading to increased buying activity [2]. - Fund holdings in major brands like Moutai are notably low, suggesting that even a slight increase in positions could lead to substantial price increases [2]. - The white wine sector has experienced a price decline for four years, but loyal consumers remain, indicating a potential for price recovery with reduced selling pressure [2]. Group 2: Performance Indicators - A performance turning point for the liquor industry is expected around 2025, with stock price recoveries likely occurring beforehand [3]. - The stock price of Laojiao has already increased by 20% from 107 yuan, which is often seen as a bullish indicator in the market [3]. - The lowest point in this cycle was likely around 98 yuan last September, suggesting that the market has already priced in known risks [3]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - The consumption of liquor is expected to rise due to increased consumer spending driven by stable real estate prices and a bullish stock market [3]. - The article emphasizes that the best time to enter the market is often when the majority feel pessimistic, indicating a contrarian investment opportunity [3]. - The stability of the market price for premium products, such as Feitian at over 1800 yuan, reflects a healthier supply-demand balance than perceived by many [2].