天风证券研报表示，2025年上半年，经济和政策双重影响下白酒行业迎4大变化：①产品矩阵变化：在 低度化/年轻化/高性价比趋势下，酒企相继重视低度产品序列化&中档价位序列化布局工作&产品品质 升级；②渠道持续升级：酒企通过组建平台公司加强渠道掌控，拥抱新渠道平衡线上线下；③营销：打 破"红包"内卷，侧重培育新场景、新人群；④目标理性：头部酒企均以渠道健康&中长期发展为方向， 理性看待业绩增速目标。板块PE修复或先于EPS修复，预计26Q2板块业绩低基数背景下或迎EPS层面拐 点，重视当前板块投资机会。建议关注：①价值主线：强品牌、强需求韧性且分红回报可观的贵州茅 台、五粮液、山西汾酒等；②弹性主线：政策&需求端变化带来的潜在预期修复机会，泸州老窖、山西 汾酒、酒鬼酒、舍得酒业、水井坊、华致酒行、珍酒李渡等。 ...

7月的酒业热点之一，是胖东来与白酒上市公司酒鬼酒合作推出的"酒鬼•自由爱"正式上市。在这之 前，这两家"八竿子打不着"的企业仅仅是达成合作，就在资本市场掀起了不小的热度，让酒鬼酒率先从 行业低迷的股价泥潭中抽身。 随着新品如预料中出现首日售罄，业内开始思考：胖东来、山姆、盒马等新型商超会不会是白酒下 一个重要的渠道阵地？ 【中国白酒网】新型商超卷新业态，白酒从中看到了机会。 去年奥乐齐9.9元白酒爆红网络，今年胖东来"自由爱"白酒品牌剑指10亿规模，新型商超成"卖酒大 户"这一现象背后，白酒渠道正悄然转变。 相比传统酒类流通渠道的"盈利艰难"，胖东来、山姆、盒马等超凭借价格、供应链、品牌等优势， 将商超OEM白酒推向聚光灯下。这让白酒找到了渠道扩充的崭新空间。 新型商超搅动酒业 眼下，商超自营白酒已成明确趋势。胖东来在与酒鬼酒联手之前，已与河南宝丰酒业推出"宝丰•自 由爱"，这款售价仅75元的白酒仅用两年时间就成了胖东来酒水板块的支柱，年销售破4亿元。按照胖东 来创始人于东来的规划，2025年"自由爱"单品将达到10亿元规模，未来10年的目标是100亿元。 无独有偶，盒马鲜生旗下的自营白酒品牌矩阵亦逐渐壮大： ...

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, influenced by economic and policy pressures, with five major changes observed [2] - The industry is transitioning towards a "quality-price ratio" competition phase, with leading companies already positioning themselves for this shift [2] - Despite being in a weak performance phase, the sector shows characteristics of low valuation, low expectations, low holdings, and high dividends, making leading liquor companies attractive investment opportunities [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Background - The liquor industry is facing dual pressures from economic conditions and policy changes, accelerating its decline [7] - The introduction of the "Strict Economy and Anti-Waste Regulations" has further impacted consumption scenarios, particularly in high-end group purchases [7][9] - The industry is expected to undergo a supply-side adjustment, with companies lowering their growth targets to alleviate channel pressures [13] 2. Supply Side - Leading liquor companies have initiated a "control supply" trend to rebalance supply and demand, which may stabilize prices [18] - Companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have implemented supply control policies to manage inventory levels [19] 3. Demand Side - Companies are innovating to meet changing consumer preferences, focusing on quality-price ratio products and low-alcohol options to attract younger consumers [20] - The establishment of manufacturer platforms and embracing online channels are strategies being adopted to enhance sales and manage distribution [26] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong brands with resilient demand and attractive dividend returns, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [55] - The potential for earnings per share (EPS) recovery is anticipated in the second quarter of 2026, making it a favorable time to invest [55]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Jiugui Liquor and Pang Donglai through the new product "Jiugui Liquor·Free Love" represents a critical moment for Jiugui Liquor, which is facing a severe decline in profits and operational efficiency, while also raising concerns about the potential disruption of its pricing structure [1][3][4][20]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jiugui Liquor's net profit has plummeted by 90%, with a forecast for 2025 indicating a profit of only 12.49 million yuan [3][4]. - The company's revenue for the first three months of the year was 34.4 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.34%, and net profit dropped by 56.78% compared to the previous year [3][4]. - Inventory turnover days have increased to 1576 days, indicating that it would take over four years to convert inventory into cash [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price of "Jiugui Liquor·Free Love" has been inflated on second-hand platforms, reaching 210-245 yuan per bottle, despite a retail price of 200 yuan [1][8]. - The collaboration has led to a significant increase in Jiugui Liquor's stock price, which rose by 20% following the announcement of the partnership [12]. - The product's cost structure reveals a gross margin of only 15.87%, significantly lower than the industry average of 30%-50% [12][15]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The partnership is seen as a potential lifeline for Jiugui Liquor, with experts suggesting it could help revitalize the brand and improve sales through Pang Donglai's extensive retail network [18][21]. - The collaboration is part of a broader strategy to penetrate the mid-range market, with expectations of significant sales growth in the coming years [18][19]. - Concerns have been raised about the long-term impact on Jiugui Liquor's pricing structure and brand perception, as the low-margin product could disrupt existing pricing strategies [14][20].

数据统计显示，中证国新央企小盘指数近一个月上涨6.69%，近三个月上涨19.19%，年至今上涨 15.51%。 金融界7月30日消息，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，中证国新央企小盘指数 (国新央企小盘，932257)下 跌1.28%，报1150.15点，成交额764.39亿元。 从中证国新央企小盘指数持仓样本的行业来看，工业占比38.00%、原材料占比18.35%、信息技术占比 13.54%、可选消费占比8.90%、公用事业占比5.56%、医药卫生占比5.38%、通信服务占比4.31%、主要 消费占比3.64%、能源占比1.77%、房地产占比0.55%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 据了解，中证国新央企小盘指数由国新投资有限公司定制，在国资委下属央企中选取200只规模较小的 上市公司证券作为 ...

金融界消息 截至2025年7月30日收盘，酒鬼酒（000799）报收于48.97元，上涨0.58%，换手率3.82%， 成交量12.41万手，成交金额6.14亿元。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流入2708.55万元，占比成交额4.41%。其中，超大单净流入2676.32万 元、占成交额4.36%，大单净流入32.22万元、占成交额0.05%，中单净流出流出707.41万元、占成交额 1.15%，小单净流出2001.13万元、占成交额3.26%。 天眼查商业履历信息显示，酒鬼酒股份有限公司，成立于1997年，位于湘西土家族苗族自治州，是一家 以从事酒、饮料和精制茶制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本32492.898万人民币，实缴资本10072.73万人 民币。公司法定代表人为程军。 通过天眼查大数据分析，酒鬼酒股份有限公司共对外投资了5家企业，参与招投标项目1265次，知识产 权方面有商标信息420条，专利信息398条，此外企业还拥有行政许可182个。 来源：金融界 酒鬼酒最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入3.44亿元、同比减少30.34%，归属净利润 3171.33万元，同比减少56.78%， ...

3.消费升级与本地化趋势 4.渠道下沉与数字化机遇 湖南白酒市场的机遇与挑战分析（以酒鬼酒爆火为背景） 一、机遇 1.品牌效应带动区域市场热度 2.政策与产业升级支持 湖南人均GDP增长（2024年超7万元）推动中高端白酒消费，本土品牌可抢占次高端价格带（300-800元）。 年轻消费者对"地域文化符号"的追捧，为创新产品（如低度果味白酒、文创联名款）提供空间。 省内县域市场白酒消费潜力未充分开发，可通过社群营销、直播电商覆盖下沉市场。 酒鬼酒的爆款案例为行业提供了数字化营销（如短视频内容种草）的参考模板。 全国性名酒（茅台、五粮液）加速渗透湖南市场，本土品牌需应对渠道挤压和品牌认知度差距。 周边产酒大省（四川、贵州）的虹吸效应，可能导致人才、资本外流。 二、挑战 1.市场竞争加剧 2.品质与产能瓶颈 3.文化认同与差异化困境 4.外部风险 酒鬼酒作为馥郁香型代表，其爆火提升了湖南白酒在全国的知名度，为省内其他品牌（如湘窖、武陵酒、毛府酒等）创造了"借势出海"的机会。 消费者对湖南特色香型（如兼香、馥郁香、韶香型）的关注度提升，可能催生细分市场的新需求。例如：毛府酒作为典型的韶香型白酒代表，省级非 遗； 湖南 ...

Core Insights - The white liquor market has experienced a collective price decline since 2025, affecting both high-end and mid-range products due to a cooling consumption environment and high inventory pressures [1][15][16] - The South China region, particularly the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, has shown significant price differentiation and a notable decline in retail prices for various white liquor products [1][2][3] Market Performance - More than half of the monitored products have seen a price drop since the beginning of the year, with high-end products being the most affected [2][15] - Among 21 monitored products, 15 experienced a decline in average retail prices, with only 4 showing slight increases and 2 remaining stable [2][3] - The most significant price drop was observed in Feitian Moutai, which fell from approximately 2624 CNY to 2368 CNY, a decrease of 256 CNY [2][3] Price Trends by Product - Feitian Moutai's market price has dropped significantly, with current prices ranging from 2100 to 2400 CNY per bottle, marking a decline of over 15% from its peak [3][15] - Other products in the thousand CNY price range, such as the eighth generation Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573, also saw price reductions, with the eighth generation Wuliangye dropping by 110 CNY [10][15] - Mid-range products like Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ and Guotai Guobiao also experienced price declines, although to a lesser extent compared to high-end products [4][10] Regional Price Dynamics - In Guangzhou, 17 out of 21 products saw price declines, with Feitian Moutai dropping from 2648 CNY to 2305 CNY [7][8] - Shenzhen's market showed a downward trend in retail prices, although some products had inflated prices due to high-end retail channels [9][10] - Dongguan's market exhibited significant price fluctuations influenced by seasonal demand and promotional activities, with Feitian Moutai's price dropping to 2299 CNY during peak sales periods [12][13] Inventory and Market Conditions - The white liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with high inventory levels leading to price pressures across all product categories [15][16] - Approximately 60% of companies are facing price inversion, particularly in the 800 to 1500 CNY price range, which is experiencing the most significant downward pressure [15][16] - The average inventory turnover days have increased to 900 days, indicating a challenging market environment for producers [15][16] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue facing challenges as companies balance between maintaining prices and expanding market share [17][18] - The introduction of new statistical methods and the inclusion of additional cities like Foshan in price monitoring may provide a clearer picture of market dynamics moving forward [20][21]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a significant rally, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a maximum intraday increase of 1.15% and currently up by 0.98% [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Meihua Biological, which surged over 3%, and several others like Luzhou Laojiao and Yanjing Beer, which rose more than 2% [1] - The food and beverage sector has attracted over 2.4 billion yuan in net inflows, ranking fourth among 30 major sectors [2][3] Group 2 - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low point after a significant pullback, with expectations of a new market trend due to improved sentiment and policy adjustments [3] - The liquor industry is facing challenges due to unexpected restrictions impacting consumption, but there are indications of a potential bottoming out in the second half of the year [3] - Recent government policies, such as the implementation of a childcare subsidy program, are expected to boost demand for dairy products, particularly infant formula [4][5] Group 3 - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is attractive, with the Food ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 20.19, which is at a low point historically [5] - The overall sentiment in the food and beverage sector is expected to improve as economic stimulus policies take effect, leading to a potential recovery in demand [5] - The government is promoting consumption as a key driver for economic growth, which is likely to benefit sectors like snacks and dairy products [5][6] Group 4 - The Food ETF (515710) primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to dairy, beverages, and condiments [6] - Investors can also access core assets in the food and beverage sector through the Food ETF linked funds [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a general rise in liquor stocks, with notable increases in stocks such as JiuGuiJiu and LuZhouLaoJiao, which rose over 2% [1] - Other companies like YingJiaGongJiu, YangHe股份, ShunXin Agriculture, GuJingGongJiu, and JinShiYuan experienced increases of over 1%, while Moutai, KouZiJiao, and WuLiangYe rose nearly 1% [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performance includes LuZhouLaoJiao with a rise of 2.17% and a total market value of 186.9 billion, while JiuGuiJiu increased by 2.07% with a market value of 16.1 billion [2] - YingJiaGongJiu rose by 1.48% with a market value of 34.5 billion, and YangHe股份 increased by 1.46% with a market value of 103.8 billion [2] - Other notable performances include GuJingGongJiu up by 1.42% (market value 75.7 billion), and ShanXiFenJiu up by 1.25% (market value 226.1 billion) [2]