Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Index Adjustment Prediction Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the adjustment of constituent stocks in major indices (CSI 300 and CSI 500) based on the index compilation rules published by the China Securities Index Company[12][13][15] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Reference**: The model uses trading and financial data from May 1 of the previous year to April 30 of the current year for mid-year reviews, and from November 1 of the previous year to October 31 of the current year for year-end reviews[12] - **Adjustment Date**: Adjustments occur on the trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year[12] - **Sample Space**: - Excludes ST, *ST stocks, and delisted securities - Includes STAR Market and ChiNext stocks listed for over a year, or those with daily average market capitalization ranking in the top 30 since listing[12] - **Selection Method**: - For CSI 300: Securities are ranked by daily average trading volume, with the bottom 50% excluded, and then ranked by daily average market capitalization, selecting the top 300[12] - For CSI 500: Excludes CSI 300 constituents and the top 300 by market capitalization, then ranks by trading volume and market capitalization, selecting the top 500[12] - **Buffer Zone Rules**: - CSI 300: New samples ranked in the top 240 are prioritized for inclusion, while existing samples ranked in the top 360 are prioritized for retention[12] - CSI 500: New samples ranked in the top 400 are prioritized for inclusion, while existing samples ranked in the top 600 are prioritized for retention[12] 2. Model Name: Event Return Analysis Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model analyzes the relationship between index sample adjustments and the cumulative excess returns of the adjusted stocks before and after the adjustment date[24] - **Model Construction Process**: - Collects data on all adjustment cycles since 2010 for CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices[24] - Calculates the cumulative excess returns of adjusted stocks relative to the index over a 60-day window before and after the adjustment date[24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights that pre-adjustment event returns are more significant for investment strategies, as investors can trade in advance based on predictions or announcements[24] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Index Adjustment Prediction Model - CSI 300 Index: Predicted 7 constituent stock adjustments, with additions primarily in the transportation and defense industries, and removals concentrated in the electrical equipment industry[13][14] - CSI 500 Index: Predicted 49 constituent stock adjustments, with additions mainly in the electronics, electrical equipment, and computer industries, and removals concentrated in the electrical equipment and pharmaceutical industries[15][16][23] 2. Event Return Analysis Model - **CSI 300 Index**: Stocks removed from the index showed negative excess returns before the adjustment date, while no significant conclusions were drawn for added stocks[5][24] - **CSI 500 Index**: Stocks added to the index exhibited positive excess returns before the adjustment date, while removed stocks showed negative excess returns[5][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6][18]. Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI is weakening, indicating a potential economic turning point, leading to a weak performance in basic metals [6][11]. - Despite short-term price weakness in basic metals, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest limited downside potential, particularly for rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market value of 29,468.06 billion and a circulating market value of 27,667.90 billion [3]. - The A-share market overall rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.07 percentage points [21][25]. Economic Factors - The April manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49, indicating contraction, with new orders PMI at 49.2 [36]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI also declined to 48.7, reflecting similar trends [38]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index dropped significantly to -18.5 [47]. Basic Metals Analysis - **Aluminum**: Trade uncertainties and weak demand expectations have led to a decline in aluminum prices post-holiday. The operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum remains stable at 43.835 million tons [9][55]. - **Alumina**: The supply-demand balance is tight, with production decreasing and some companies reportedly violating production regulations, creating short-term bullish sentiment [12]. - **Copper**: The processing fees for copper concentrate are declining, while domestic refined copper production is increasing, indicating a deepening conflict in the mining and metallurgy sectors [14]. - **Zinc**: Domestic refined zinc production is growing, with social inventories at historically low levels [16]. Inventory and Pricing - Overall inventory levels for basic metals are low, with specific metrics indicating a decrease in aluminum ingot inventory to 694,000 tons [10][57]. - The current price for electrolytic aluminum is around 19,550 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.49% decrease [57].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of coal allocation in the current market environment, highlighting a basket of financial policies aimed at stabilizing market expectations [1][2] - The coal sector is viewed as entering a "golden era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rebound due to favorable macroeconomic policies and capital market support [2][10] Coal Market Overview - As of May 9, 2025, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 630 CNY/ton, a decrease of 20 CNY/ton or 3.08% from the previous week [1][13] - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions was 81.1%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points [1][13] - In April 2025, China imported 37.825 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 16.41% [1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The daily coal consumption of coastal power plants reached 1.734 million tons, an increase of 235,000 tons week-on-week [1][9] - The inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim increased to 33.051 million tons, up 201,800 tons or 6.5% [1][9] - The operating rates for methanol and urea production were 84.1% and 87.35%, respectively, indicating a stable demand for coal in chemical production [1][9] Investment Logic - The report outlines a robust dividend investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that they remain a preferred choice for institutional investors due to their stable returns and low risk associated with state-owned enterprises [2][10] - The cyclical elasticity of coal stocks is highlighted, with expectations for price recovery as supply-demand fundamentals improve post-policy implementation [2][10] Key Indicators - The coal sector's PE ratio was reported at 11.6, and the PB ratio was 1.16, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [5][7] - The report identifies key coal stocks that are expected to benefit from the current market conditions, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2][10] Focused Stock Recommendations - The report suggests a selection of coal stocks based on different investment themes: - Dividend logic: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy - Cyclical logic: Pingmei Shenma, Huabei Mining - Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Energy, Electric Power Energy - Growth logic: Guanghui Energy, New Hope Energy [2][10]

Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Recommended" [7][78] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a supply-side constraint, while demand may fluctuate in the short term, leading to price volatility and dynamic rebalancing [7][78] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies as high dividend and cash cow assets, especially in light of recent market changes and government support for major coal enterprises [7][77] - Key companies in the coal sector are characterized by high profitability, strong cash flow, high barriers to entry, substantial dividends, and a high safety margin [7][78] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices at ports have decreased by 22 CNY/ton year-on-year, with port inventory increasing [14][15] - Production in major coal-producing areas has increased, with capacity utilization in the Sanxi region rising by 0.69 percentage points [14][21] - April coal imports totaled 37.825 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [14][28] - Demand remains weak due to high inventory levels at power plants, with daily consumption showing mixed trends [14][31] 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal production has stabilized, with capacity utilization rising by 0.45 percentage points to 89.0% [39][76] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu port increased by 281 vehicles week-on-week [39][44] - Coking coal supply and demand are marginally loose, with inventories at production enterprises rising by 14.84 million tons [39][76] 3. Coke - The production rate of coking plants has increased, with capacity utilization rising by 0.29 percentage points to 75.83% [53][76] - Despite a slight increase in coke inventory, it remains at a low level with no significant pressure [53][66] - The average profit per ton of coke has risen to approximately 1 CNY, an increase of 7 CNY week-on-week [57][76] 4. Anthracite - Anthracite prices have remained stable, with supply exceeding demand and no new purchasing needs from power users [71][72] 5. Key Companies and Investment Focus - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, with a focus on companies with strong cash flow and high dividend yields [7][78] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring iron and steel production, as well as the consumption of steel and coking coal [39][76]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, prompting continued attention to investment opportunities in the steel sector. The recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to impact the market positively. The steel sector, having undergone three years of adjustment, now presents a favorable cost-performance ratio, with leading companies showing improved profitability and stability [8][14]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are experiencing notable loosening, with expectations that May's iron and steel production may peak. The steel mills are likely to squeeze iron ore profits, leading to potential downward feedback on prices. The domestic demand-driven pricing in the steel sector is seen as advantageous given the high tariffs affecting external demand [8][14]. Steel Market - The consumption of rebar has decreased significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.14 million tons, a 26.67% decrease week-on-week. The overall price index for common steel has slightly declined by 0.71%, with rebar prices at 3,296 CNY/ton, down 0.8% week-on-week [15][37]. Industrial Metals - The copper smelting fees have deepened into negative territory, with the current rough smelting fee at -43.5 USD/thousand tons, a decrease of 8.21% week-on-week. The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang slightly increasing while those in Shandong have decreased significantly [17][29]. Precious Metals - Tariffs are expected to boost demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, leading to a potential rise in gold prices. As of May 9, 2025, COMEX gold prices were reported at 3,329.1 USD/ounce, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.52% [17][37]. Investment Recommendations - For the steel sector, it is recommended to focus on leading companies such as Shandong Steel (600022, Buy) and Jiugang Steel (002110, Not Rated). In the non-ferrous sector, investment in Northern Rare Earth (600111, Buy) and Jinchuan Group (300748, Buy) is suggested [8][17].

证券代码：000933 证券简称：神火股份 公告编号：2025-034 河南神火煤电股份有限公司 2024 年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、根据《公司法》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 9 号——回购股份》等相关规定，上市公司通过回购专户持有的本公 司股份，不享有参与利润分配和资本公积金转增股本的权利。因此， 河南神火煤电股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）本次 实施的权益分派方案为：以公司现有总股本 2,249,350,569 股剔除已 回购股份 15,420,360 股后的 2,233,930,209 股为基数，向全体股东 每 10 股派 5.00 元人民币现金（含税），本次不送红股，不以资本公 积转增股本；按照每股分配比例不变的原则，实际现金分红的总额为 1,116,965,104.50 元（实际现金分红总额=实际参与分配的股本 2,233,930,209 股*分配比例 0.50 元/股）。 2、本次权益分派实施后，根据股票市值不变原则，计算除权除 息价格时，按公司总股本（含回购股份 ...

证券代码：000933 证券简称：神火股份 公告编号：2025-033 河南神火煤电股份有限公司 关于股份回购进展情况的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误 导性陈述或重大遗漏。 河南神火煤电股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 12 月 30 日召开董事会第九届十四次会议审议通过了《关于回购公司股份方 案的议案》，同意公司使用自有资金通过集中竞价交易方式回购部分股 份用于股权激励计划，回购总金额不低于人民币 2.50 亿元（含）且不 超过人民币 4.50 亿元（含），回购价格不超过人民币 20 元/股（含）， 实施期限为自董事会审议通过本次回购方案之日起 12 个月内。具体内 容详见公司在《证券时报》《中国证券报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》 及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的相关公告。 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监 管指引第 9 号—回购股份》等有关规定，公司应当于每个月的前三个 交易日内披露截至上月末的回购进展情况。现将公司回购股份进展情 况公告如下： 一、本次回购股份的进展情况 截至 ...

| 601688 | 华泰证 | 5 | 2.08 | 6.01 | 1.76 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 券 | | | | | | 603005 | 晶方科 | 5 | 1.94 | 5.46 | 9.07 | | | 技 | | | | | | 000933 | 神火股 | 7 | 1.91 | 6.53 | 4.81 | | | 份 | | | | | | 300657 | 弘信电 | 5 | 1.79 | 4.55 | 11.37 | | | 子 | | | | | | 688158 | 优刻得 | 5 | 1.78 | 5.36 | 13.31 | | 000630 | 铜陵有 | 5 | 1.71 | 8.40 | 1.58 | | | 色 | | | | | | 300382 | 斯莱克 | 5 | 1.62 | 8.36 | 24.17 | | 688208 | 道通科 | 5 | 1.50 | 5.56 | 14.00 | | | 技 | | | | | | 002558 | 巨人网 | 5 | 1.37 | 5.25 | 11. ...

Group 1 - The aluminum processing industry involves the use of plastic processing methods to convert aluminum ingots into products such as aluminum profiles, plates, and foils [1] - Major upstream processes include the production of electrolytic aluminum and recycled aluminum, which require bauxite and alumina processing [1] - The aluminum processing products are widely used in various sectors including transportation, packaging, construction, aerospace, and electrical machinery [1] Group 2 - Key listed companies in the aluminum processing industry include Tianshan Aluminum (002532), Mingtai Aluminum (601677), China Aluminum (601600), and Nanshan Aluminum (600219) [2][3] - Mingtai Aluminum, Asia Pacific Technology, Nanshan Aluminum, Ding Sheng New Materials, and Hong Chuang Holdings have over 90% of their business focused on aluminum processing [8] - Domestic market sales dominate, with overseas sales being relatively small for most aluminum processing companies [8] Group 3 - In 2023, Mingtai Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum reported revenues exceeding 20 billion yuan, with significant variations in gross margins due to the diversity of aluminum processing products [11] - The production output of aluminum processing products is led by Nanshan Aluminum, Mingtai Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum [11] - Companies are focusing on optimizing their business models and enhancing their technological capabilities to meet the growing demand for aluminum in high-end applications [13] Group 4 - Companies are planning to reduce upstream costs, accelerate technological research and development, and increase production capacity as part of their strategic initiatives [13] - Specific plans include Mingtai Aluminum's focus on recycling aluminum and enhancing product quality, while Nanshan Aluminum aims to develop high-end aluminum materials for the automotive and aerospace sectors [15][16] - The industry is expected to continue growing steadily, driven by the increasing application of aluminum in various sectors and the push for carbon neutrality [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit for Q1 2025 despite an increase in revenue, indicating potential challenges in profitability amidst fluctuating market conditions [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue was 9.632 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.13% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.24% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 708 million yuan, down 35.05% year-on-year and down 7.83% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 715 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.43% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.97% [1]. Market Conditions - In Q1 2025, the average price of A00 aluminum was 20,429 yuan/ton, up 7.39% year-on-year but down 0.60% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The average price of alumina was 3,916 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.90% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25.78% [2]. - The average market price of prebaked anodes for electrolytic aluminum in Southwest China was 5,023 yuan/ton, up 12.38% year-on-year and up 16.82% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The average price of lean coal in Zhengzhou, Henan, was 644 yuan/ton, down 12.25% year-on-year and down 9.08% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Corporate Actions - The company has initiated a stock repurchase plan, with a total repurchase amount ranging from 250 million to 450 million yuan, aimed at employee stock incentive plans [3]. - As of the Q1 2025 report, the company has repurchased 5.2218 million shares, accounting for 0.23% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of approximately 85.02 million yuan [3]. - The company is progressing with the plan for its subsidiary, Shenhuo New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., to be listed separately [4]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts operating revenues of 39.362 billion, 39.523 billion, and 39.604 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The projected net profits attributable to shareholders are 4.929 billion, 4.994 billion, and 5.070 billion yuan for the same years [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 7.7, 7.6, and 7.5 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a maintained "buy" investment rating despite a downward adjustment in profit forecasts [5].