Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.632 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.13% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 708 million yuan, down 35.05% year-on-year and down 7.83% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The report highlights that while coal prices are under pressure, the raw material costs for alumina have weakened on a month-on-month basis, providing some support for the company's performance [1][5] - The company has initiated a stock repurchase plan with a total amount of 250 to 450 million yuan, and as of the Q1 report, it has repurchased 5.2218 million shares, accounting for 0.23% of the total share capital [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The average price of A00 aluminum in Q1 2025 was 20,429 yuan per ton, up 7.39% year-on-year but down 0.60% quarter-on-quarter. The average price of alumina was 3,916 yuan per ton, up 16.90% year-on-year but down 25.78% quarter-on-quarter [5] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 39.362 billion yuan, 39.523 billion yuan, and 39.604 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.929 billion yuan, 4.994 billion yuan, and 5.070 billion yuan for the same years. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 7.7, 7.6, and 7.5 for the respective years [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the A-share non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing a renewed interest from actively managed equity funds, particularly in gold and copper sectors, driven by external economic factors and a favorable outlook for gold prices [1][5]. Group 1: Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q1 2025, actively managed equity funds increased their holdings in the A-share non-ferrous metal industry, with the market value of heavy holdings rising to 2.18% of total stock investments, up from 1.76% in Q4 2024, marking a 0.42 percentage point increase after two consecutive quarters of reduction [2]. - The main focus of fund replenishment in Q1 2025 was on the gold and copper sectors, with respective market value proportions of 0.44% and 0.85% of total fund stock investments, reflecting increases of 0.18 percentage points for gold and 0.18 percentage points for copper compared to Q4 2024 [3]. Group 2: Concentration of Holdings - The concentration of holdings in the A-share non-ferrous metal industry increased, with the top 10 stocks accounting for 73.23% of the total market value of heavy holdings, up 3 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. - The top stocks held by actively managed equity funds in the non-ferrous metal sector include Zijin Mining, Yun Aluminum, Shandong Gold, and others, with notable increases in holdings for companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Chuangjiang New Materials [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing U.S. tariff increases and the resulting economic uncertainties may lead to a sustained rise in gold prices, which are expected to stabilize around $3,000 per ounce, thereby enhancing the performance and cash flow of gold companies [1][5]. - There is significant room for increased holdings in the A-share gold sector, as current positions remain below the high levels seen in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating potential for further investment [5]. - The report recommends focusing on stocks such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and others in the gold sector, as well as high-dividend, low-valuation leaders in the copper and aluminum sectors like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum for medium to long-term investment [5].

中国银河近日发布有色金属行业周报：字节发布多款Agent工具，美团发布AI招聘，多 家AIDC公司宣布扩容2025年4月22日，字节跳动旗下火山引擎发布Agent Devops体系、AI数 据湖服务，帮助垂直领域企业加速Agent开发和运维；4月24日，美团发布AI招聘，岗位类别 包括AI基础设施、智能交互、大模型基座、视觉智能、智能产品等，致力于打造一款Native AI Agent产品。光环新网和宝信软件先后发布公告，拟投资建设天津宝坻三期项目和宝之华 北基地A4A5A6楼项目，反映出AIDC需求逐步提升。 以下为研究报告摘要： 市场行情回顾：截止到4月25日周五收市：本周上证指数+0.56%，报3295.06点；沪深 300指数+0.38%，报3786.99点；SW有色金属行业指数+1.50%，报4641点。分子行业来看， 本周有色金属行业5个二级子行业中，工业金属、贵金属、小金属、能源金属、金属新材料 较上周变动幅度分别为+2.35%、-2.52%、+1.21%、+2.93%、+1.04%。 重点金属价格数据：本周上期所铜、铝、锌、铅、镍、锡分别收于77,440元/吨、20,030 元/吨、22,75 ...

Group 1 - The "national team" has increased holdings in hard technology, domestic demand, and financial insurance sectors while reducing positions in multiple energy stocks during Q1 2025 [1][2] - Over 2,400 A-share listed companies have disclosed their Q1 2025 reports, with more than 360 companies showing "national team" as a major shareholder [1] - The most significantly increased stock by the "national team" is China Ping An, with an additional 252 million shares acquired in Q1 2025, totaling 1.471 billion shares held [1] Group 2 - The "national team" has notably reduced holdings in the energy sector, with China Aluminum seeing a decrease of over 50 million shares, and other companies like Chifeng Gold and Shenhuo Co. also experiencing significant reductions [2] - Insurance funds are focusing on key industries related to national livelihood, with the Honghu Fund, initiated by China Life and Xinhua Insurance, achieving a good performance with investments totaling 50 billion yuan [2][3] - The second batch of long-term investment trials for insurance funds was approved, expanding the total scale from 500 billion yuan to 1.62 trillion yuan, with eight insurance companies participating [3] Group 3 - The Honghu Fund has increased its stake in Shaanxi Coal and has become a significant shareholder, holding over 116 million shares as of Q1 2025 [3][4] - The Honghu Fund also entered the top ten shareholders of China Telecom and holds 76.174 million shares, maintaining its position in Q1 2025 [4] - Insurance companies have mirrored the "national team's" strategy by reducing energy stock holdings while increasing positions in key sectors [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the steel sector. The report indicates that after three years of adjustment, the current position of the steel sector offers high cost-effectiveness, with leading enterprises showing improved profitability and stability [8][13]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are expected to decline as steel production peaks post-May Day, leading to potential profit squeezes for iron ore suppliers. The domestic demand-driven pricing in the steel sector is highlighted as a key factor [8][13]. Steel Sector - The weekly consumption of rebar decreased to 2.6 million tons, a significant drop of 5.07% week-on-week. The average price of rebar increased slightly by 1.34% to 3,323 CNY/ton, while cold-rolled prices fell by 1.54% to 3,812 CNY/ton [14][36]. - Total steel inventory decreased significantly, with a total of 1,083 million tons, down 3.68% week-on-week and 24.11% year-on-year [23]. - The profitability of rebar production has improved, with long-process rebar margins increasing by 25 CNY/ton and short-process margins rising by 350 CNY/ton [34][36]. Industrial Metals - The report notes a deepening negative value for copper TC/RC, with the average LME aluminum price rising by 3.63% to 2,412 USD/ton. The cost of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang decreased significantly by 16.22%, leading to a substantial profit increase [16][28]. Precious Metals - The report suggests that tariffs may boost demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, with gold prices expected to continue rising. As of April 25, 2025, COMEX gold prices were reported at 3,330.2 USD/ounce, a slight decrease of 0.33% week-on-week [16][48]. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 57.44% in February 2025, with prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate at 69,600 CNY/ton. Nickel and cobalt prices showed mixed trends, with nickel prices declining [15][39][48].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of four new fund managers at Invesco Great Wall Fund, alongside veteran manager Bao Wuke, has raised speculation about potential changes in management and performance of the funds involved [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Manager Changes - Bao Wuke, a seasoned fund manager with over 17 years of experience, has been managing several funds at Invesco Great Wall Fund, including the Value Margin and Hong Kong-Shanghai Select funds [2]. - The newly appointed fund managers are Liu Su, Zou Lihua, Zhang Zhongwei, and Wang Yong, all of whom are experienced professionals within the company [3][4]. - The "old hands co-managing" model is relatively rare in the fund industry, as the more common practice is "old leads new" for training purposes [3]. Group 2: Fund Performance Post-Appointment - Following the announcement of the new appointments on April 12, three out of four funds have shown an increase in performance [5]. - The net asset value of the Value Margin fund rose from 1.5335 to 1.5425, with major holdings including Zijin Mining and Midea Group [5][6]. - The National Enterprise Value Mixed A fund's net value slightly decreased from 1.2086 to 1.2083, with Zijin Mining being the largest holding at 10.01% of the fund's net asset value [6]. - The Hong Kong-Shanghai Select A fund's net value increased from 2.177 to 2.191, with Midea Group as the top holding at 6.65% [6]. - The Value Discovery A1 fund's net value rose from 1.0927 to 1.1005, with Zijin Mining as the largest holding at 6.04% [6]. Group 3: Management Structure Insights - The effectiveness of co-managing a fund is debated, with some experts suggesting that a single manager may have more independence in decision-making [7]. - However, there are exceptions where a dual-manager structure can enhance performance, particularly in complex products requiring diverse expertise [7].

事件：事件：公司公告2025 年一季报，实现营收96.32 亿元、同比增长17.13%；归母净利润7.08 亿元、 同比下降35.05%；扣非后归母净利润为7.15 亿元、同比下降29.43%。 煤价承压+氧化铝价格波动，影响公司一季度业绩表现。根据公司公告内容，2025Q1 公司归母净利润 同比下降的主要原因是：主营业务中煤炭产品的价格同比下降、铝产品的主要原材料氧化铝价格同比上 涨，造成公司主营产品盈利能力减弱。环比来看，公司2025Q1 收入为96.32 亿元、环比2024Q4下降 4.24%；归母净利润为7.08 亿元、环比2024Q4 下降7.83%；扣非后归母净利润为7.15 亿元、环比2024Q4 增长1.97%。在2024 年年报点评中我们测算过： 1）煤炭：2024 年产量为673.90 万吨，增速为-6.01%；销量为670.13 万吨，增速为-7.54%；负责煤炭生 产销售的子公司兴隆公司（公司持股比例为82.00%）和新龙公司（持股比例100%）净利润分别为3.32 和3.69 亿元，因此我们测算出2024 年公司煤炭业务的吨净利大约在105 元左右；2）电解铝：2024 年产 量为1 ...

神火股份 2025042220250416 摘要 • 煤炭板块利润贡献接近于零，尽管产量增加 40 万吨，但煤价同比下降约 300 元/吨，年度均价 780 元/吨（不含税），同比下降 28%，部分矿井出 现亏损，如牛河矿亏损达七八千万元。 • 铝板块新疆和云南均满产，总产量 43 万吨。铝价上涨 1,000-1,300 元/吨， 但成本亦增加。新疆盈利约 7 亿元，每吨 3,500 元；云南盈利约 4 亿元， 每吨 3,500 元。一季度加工业务亏损 600 万元。 • 财务费用控制良好，一季度完成 4,000 万元，全年计划不超过 5,000 万元。 一季度投资收益 1.8 亿元，其中广西龙州贡献 1.3 亿元，但氧化锂价格回 落可能影响二季度后收益。 • 公司现有 5 万吨铝库存，其中 2.5 万吨为正常滚存，预计二季度消化，对 业绩有支撑。一季度末部分库存未开票，将在二季度体现销售收入。 • 电解铝工艺成本受氧化铝和电价影响。当前氧化铝价格约 2,850 元/吨，云 南电价二季度预计降至 0.45 元/度，新疆电价稳定在 0.24 元/度。氧化锂 价格稳定在 5,000-5,400 元/吨。 Q&A ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in alumina prices supports performance, with a focus on the growth potential of coal and aluminum businesses, as well as the elasticity of aluminum [3][4] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 9.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.13%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, down 35.1% year-on-year and 7.8% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 5.81 billion, 6.46 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.58, 2.87, and 3.12 yuan [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.13% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 35.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.8% [3][4] - The company’s coal production capacity is 8.55 million tons per year, with a focus on high-quality metallurgical coal. The average price of coal in Q1 2025 showed a decline, with the price of Yongcheng anthracite coal averaging 1240 yuan per ton, down 13.4% year-on-year and 3.7% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The report projects a significant increase in net profit for 2025-2027, with expected growth rates of 35%, 11.2%, and 8.5% respectively [3][7] Business Outlook - The coal and aluminum business is expected to see further growth, with coal production projected to increase to approximately 7.2 million tons in 2025 due to technical upgrades at Liuhe Coal Mine [5] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 41.78% in 2024, up by 11.3 percentage points from 2023, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's market management practices, which include focusing on core business, improving operational efficiency, and utilizing various strategies for market value management [5]

有色金属/工业金属 神火股份（000933.SZ） 氧化铝价格回落支撑业绩，关注煤铝成长及铝弹性 2025 年 04 月 22 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 日期 2025/4/21 当前股价(元) 16.72 一年最高最低(元) 24.95/13.04 总市值(亿元) 376.09 流通市值(亿元) 375.06 总股本(亿股) 22.49 流通股本(亿股) 22.43 近 3 个月换手率(%) 79.99 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 神火股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，关注煤 铝成长及铝弹性—公司 2024年报点评 报告》-2025.3.26 《Q3 盈利环比改善，中期分红加大投 资者回报—2024 年三季报点评报告》 -2024.10.22 《煤炭业务量价齐跌拖累业绩，煤铝 成长性可期—2024 年中报点评报告》 -2024.8.20 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 （1）煤铝业务产销量有望进一步释放：煤炭业务方 ...