Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenhuo Co., Ltd. [1][3][12] Core Views - The report highlights that Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has improved its profitability in Q3 2024 compared to the previous quarter, with a focus on enhancing shareholder returns through a mid-term cash dividend of 0.3 CNY per share [2][3] - The company is positioned as a leading aluminum processing enterprise in China, benefiting from cost advantages in its electrolytic aluminum business and favorable resource endowments in its coal mines [3] - The aluminum foil business has strong competitive advantages, including advanced equipment and an expanding market share [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 42,704 million CNY, with a projected decline to 37,383 million CNY in 2024, followed by growth to 39,651 million CNY in 2025 and 42,428 million CNY in 2026 [1][3][7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased from 7,578 million CNY in 2022 to an estimated 5,028 million CNY in 2024, with a recovery expected to 5,633 million CNY in 2025 and 6,301 million CNY in 2026 [1][3][7] - The report projects EPS (diluted) to decline from 3.37 CNY in 2022 to 2.24 CNY in 2024, with a gradual increase to 2.50 CNY in 2025 and 2.80 CNY in 2026 [1][3][7] Cash Dividend - The total cash dividend amounts to 675 million CNY, representing 19.07% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 [3]

证 告 公 研 究 券 研 2024 年 10 月 23 日 究 报 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 神火股份 (000933.SZ) 事件 10 月 21 日，公司公布 24 年三季报，前三季度实现营收 283.14 亿元，同比-1.10%；归母净利 35.38 亿元，同比-13.75%；扣非归 母净利 34.13 亿元，同比-15.68%。3Q24 实现归母净利 12.54 亿元， 环比+5.09%，同比-8.00%。 点评 Q3 煤铝产量恢复平稳，电解铝价格高位，业绩环比增长。（1）3Q24 长江有色铝均价 1.96 万元/吨，环比-4.75%，同比+3.83%，氧化 铝均价 3920 元/吨，环比+7.46%，预焙阳极均价 3747 元/吨，环 比-4.67%，云南神火电解铝产能 5 月中旬全部启动，Q3 全季度恢 复正常生产节奏，云南电解铝产销量环比提升，价格维持高位。（2） 3Q24 煤炭恢复正常生产节奏，永城无烟精煤车板价 1212 元/吨， 环比-9.36%，影响公司煤炭板块盈利。Q3 云南丰水期电价下调， 云南神火利润环比修复，铝煤产销量环比继续回升，带动业绩环 比增长。 神火新材二期电池箔投产，铝加工业务布局进一步完善。神火新 材一期产能 5.5 万吨，一期 ...

神火股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 000933） 公司点评 煤炭板块复苏，Q3 利润环比改善 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|-------------| | | | | [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | | | 报告日期： | 2024-10-23 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 18.63 | | 近 12 个月最高 / 最低（元） | 25.38/13.04 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2,249 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2,243 | | 流通股比例（ % ） | 99.73 | | 总市值（亿元） | 419 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 418 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -23% 1% 24% 48% 71% 10/23 1/24 4/24 7/24 神火股份 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：许勇其 执业证书号：S0010522080002 邮箱：xuqy@hazq.com 分析师： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.314 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.538 billion yuan, down 13.75% year-on-year [2][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 675 million yuan, which accounts for 19.07% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first nine months of 2024 [2][6] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 4.688 billion, 5.881 billion, and 6.625 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -20.61%, +25.44%, and +12.65% respectively [2][6] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.093 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.02% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.96% [6] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.254 billion yuan, down 8.00% year-on-year but up 5.09% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 24.54%, a decrease of 2.71 percentage points year-on-year [6] Product and Market Insights - The company’s electrolytic aluminum production is expected to increase in Q3 2024 due to abundant electricity supply in Yunnan [6] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2024 increased by 3.9% year-on-year but decreased by 4.6% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The average price of the main product, anthracite coal, decreased by 13.7% year-on-year and 3.1% quarter-on-quarter [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its competitive edge in the coal, electricity, and aluminum sectors despite seasonal factors [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 2.08, 2.61, and 2.95 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.9, 7.1, and 6.3 [2][6]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/有色金属/铝 证券研究报告 神火股份（000933）公司季报点评 2024 年 10 月 23 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 股票数据 | | | 10 [ Table_StockInfo 月 22 日收盘价（元） ] | 18.63 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 13.04-25.38 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 2249/2243 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 41905/41791 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《煤炭有望量增价稳，电解铝盈利走阔优势巩 | | | 固》 2023.10.24 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -14.70% 0.30% 15.30% 30.30% 45.30% 20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was positively impacted by a decrease in income tax rates and lower electricity prices in Yunnan [3][4] - The company reported a revenue of 28.31 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.54 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.09 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0% and a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [3] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The company's performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows a 23.4% increase over the past year, compared to the index's 22.9% [4] - The average price of aluminum in Q3 2024 was 19,562 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.7% [4] - The average price of alumina in Henan for Q3 was 3,917 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 34.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.4% [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 39.35 billion yuan, 40.78 billion yuan, and 42.19 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.848 billion yuan, 5.768 billion yuan, and 6.316 billion yuan for the same years [4] Dividend and Taxation - The company announced a mid-term dividend of 3.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 675 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 19.1% [4] - The income tax rate for Q3 2024 was 20.8%, down from 26% in Q2, contributing positively to the company's earnings [4]

神火股份（000933.SZ）2024 年三季报点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 业绩环比改善，顺周期下潜力十足 2024 年 10 月 22 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季报。2024Q1-Q3 实现归母净利润 35.4 亿元， 同比下滑 13.75%；扣非归母净利润 34.1 亿元，同比下滑 15.68%。单季度看， 2024Q3，公司实现归母净利润 12.5 亿元，同比下滑 8.00%，环比增加 5.09%； 扣非归母净利润 12.6 亿元，同比下滑 3.78%，环比增加 9.88%。 ➢ 点评：煤铝价格下跌，Q3 毛利率环比略有下滑 1. 量：丰水期满产，我们预计云南神火 Q3 产量 22.5 万吨，新疆煤电 Q3 电 解铝满产 20 万吨。云南神火 3 月份开始复产，Q3 满产运行，我们预计云 南神火 Q3 产量 22.5 万吨。我们预计新疆 Q3 产量平稳在 20 万吨。 2. 价：煤铝价格环比下跌，Q3 毛利率环比下降 0.92pct。24Q3 铝价环比4.75%，无烟精煤均价环比-9.36%；原料方面，Q3 氧化铝价环比+5.84%, 预焙阳极均价环比-4.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Shenhuo Co Ltd (000933) with a target price of 23.46 RMB [1][2] Core Views - Shenhuo's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by declining coal prices and rising alumina prices, leading to a 13.75% YoY decrease in net profit attributable to the parent company [1] - The company's Q3 revenue reached 10.093 billion RMB, a 6.02% YoY increase, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.254 billion RMB, down 8% YoY [1] - Shenhuo's subsidiary, Shenhuo New Materials, is planning a spin-off IPO to enhance its aluminum processing business layout [1] - The company announced a mid-term dividend distribution of 0.3 RMB per share, totaling 675 million RMB, representing 19.07% of the net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Shenhuo's sales expenses, management expenses, R&D expenses, and financial expenses totaled 530 million RMB, a 30% YoY increase but a 13% QoQ decrease [1] - The company's financial expenses in Q3 were -3 million RMB, a significant reduction of 137 million RMB QoQ due to lower capital usage costs [1] - Shenhuo's operating income for the first three quarters of 2024 was 28.314 billion RMB, a 1.1% YoY decrease, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.538 billion RMB, down 13.75% YoY [1] Industry and Market Analysis - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices averaged 19,562 RMB/ton in Q3 2024, a 3.8% YoY increase but a 4.7% QoQ decrease [1] - Alumina prices averaged 3,917 RMB/ton in Q3 2024, a 34.3% YoY increase and a 7.4% QoQ increase [1] - Coal prices in Yongcheng and Pingdingshan showed significant YoY declines, with anthracite coal prices down 15% YoY and 9% QoQ [1] Future Projections - The report forecasts Shenhuo's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 to be 4.64 billion RMB, 5.86 billion RMB, and 6.72 billion RMB respectively, representing YoY changes of -21.5%, +26.5%, and +14.6% [1] - The company's revenue is expected to grow at rates of 8.5%, 5.2%, and 3.8% for 2024-2026 respectively [3] - EPS projections for 2024-2026 are 2.06 RMB, 2.61 RMB, and 2.99 RMB respectively [3] Business Development - Shenhuo New Materials' second phase project, with an annual capacity of 60,000 tons of new energy power battery materials, was fully operational by the end of August 2024 [1] - The company's aluminum processing business is expected to contribute significantly to future performance, with advanced equipment and a focus on high-precision electronic electrode aluminum foil [1]

> 开源证券 有色金属/工业金属 公 司 研 究 Q3 盈利环比改善，中期分红加大投资者回报 神火股份（000933.SZ） 2024 年 10 月 22 日 ——2024 年三季报点评报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------| | 日期 | 2024/10/21 | | 当前股价 ( 元 ) | 18.61 | | 一年最高最低 ( 元 ) | 25.38/13.04 | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 418.60 | | 流通市值 ( 亿元 ) | 417.46 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 22.49 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 22.43 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 100.65 | 股价走势图 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 神火股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《煤炭业务量价齐跌拖累业绩，煤铝 成长性可期—2024 年中报点评报告》 -2024.8.20 《煤价下行拖累业绩，看好煤铝增量 — 公 司 ...