Core Viewpoint - The report maintains the profit forecast for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck) for 2025/2026, with an upward adjustment of the target price by 11.9% to HKD 27.21, indicating a potential upside of 23.7% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 4.2% year-on-year to CNY 50.88 billion, and the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 4.0% to CNY 3.43 billion, aligning with expectations [1] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 improved by 0.4 percentage points to 15.1%, while the expense ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.7%, indicating effective cost control [3] - The revenue from the heavy truck business grew by 4% to CNY 44.2 billion, maintaining an operating profit margin of 6.0% [3] Group 2: Market Position and Sales - The heavy truck industry saw a wholesale sales increase of 7% year-on-year to 539,000 units in the first half of 2025, with the company achieving a 9.2% increase in heavy truck sales to 137,000 units, maintaining its leading market share [2] - The average revenue per heavy truck decreased by CNY 15,400 to CNY 320,900, while the average profit per heavy truck fell by CNY 1,245 to CNY 25,100, remaining at historically high levels [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from various factors such as the old-for-new policy, strong export demand, growth in the new energy segment, and a recovery in infrastructure projects, projecting a 10% year-on-year increase in heavy truck sales to 1 million units in 2025 [4] - The new energy heavy truck segment saw a significant increase in registration volume, with a year-on-year rise of 186% to 79,000 units, and the company achieved a 226% increase in its own new energy heavy truck registrations [4] - The company is advancing in electric and intelligent vehicle technologies, with successful deliveries in low-speed logistics and high-speed trunk logistics markets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report maintains the profit forecast for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (000951) for 2025/2026, with an upward adjustment of the target price by 11.9% to HKD 27.21, indicating a potential upside of 23.7% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's revenue increased by 4.2% year-on-year to CNY 50.88 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 4.0% to CNY 3.43 billion, aligning with expectations [1] - The gross profit margin for 1H25 improved by 0.4 percentage points to 15.1%, while the expense ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.7%, indicating effective cost control [3] - The heavy truck business revenue grew by 4% to CNY 44.2 billion, maintaining an operating profit margin of 6.0% [3] Group 2: Market Position and Sales - In 1H25, the heavy truck industry wholesale sales increased by 7% year-on-year to 539,000 units, with the company’s heavy truck sales rising by 9.2% to 137,000 units, maintaining the top market share [2] - The company’s heavy truck single-unit revenue decreased by CNY 15,400 to CNY 320,900, while single-unit profit fell by CNY 1,245 to CNY 25,100, remaining at historically high levels [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company expects a 10% year-on-year increase in heavy truck industry sales in 2025, supported by various factors including trade-in policies, strong export demand, and growth in new energy segments [4] - The new energy heavy truck registration volume surged by 186% year-on-year to 79,000 units in 1H25, with the company achieving a 226% increase to 9,157 units, capturing an 11.6% market share [4] - The company is advancing in electric and intelligent vehicle sectors, with significant developments in low-speed logistics and high-speed trunk logistics, and has begun mass deliveries of related products [4]

H1 重卡增速跑赢行业，内外并举驱动增长：25H1 公司实现重卡销量8.1 万辆，同比增长14.1%，增速 明显跑赢行业整体，主要源于公司在细分市场持续深耕与全价值链营销模式的有效落地，公司产品在集 装箱牵引车、500 马力以下柴油牵引车及15NG 560 马力牵引车等多个细分领域市占率领先。全新一代 豪沃TS7 于2025 年4 月上市，进一步拓展了公司在公路复合等重点细分市场的覆盖，推动市占率快速提 升。此外，公司依托重汽国际公司的海外渠道资源，实现出口业务持续增长，进一步带动整体销量提 升。 事件：8 月27 日，公司发布2025H1 业绩公告，实现收入261.6 亿元，同比增长7.2%；归母净利润6.7 亿 元，同比增长8.1%；扣非归母净利润6.3 亿元，同比增长7.6%。对应Q2 实现收入132.5 亿元，同比增长 2.2%，环比增长2.7%；归母净利润3.6 亿元，同比增长4.0%，环比增长15.4%；扣非归母净利润3.3 亿 元，同比增长4.9%，环比增长14.8%。公司宣告中期分红每10 股现金股利3.15 元，当期分红比例达 55%。 高比例分红延续增强配置信心，盈利能力具备提升空间：公司 ...

0 1 事 件 概 述 公司披露2025年半年度报告，2025H1营收261.62亿元，同比+7.22%；归母净利润6.69亿元，同比+8.10%；扣非归母净利6.27亿元，同比+7.64%。利润分配方 面，公司拟以特定总股本为基数每10股派发现金股利3.15元（含税），合计派现约3.68亿元，现金分红占2025年半年度归母净利润比例达55%。 0 2 分 析 判 断 ► 25Q2业绩符合预期 盈利能力同环比双升 1）营收端： 2025Q2营收132.53亿元，同比+2.15%，环比+2.68%，符合预期。2025Q2我国重卡批发销量为27.43万辆，同比+18.33%，环比+3.50%；集团 实现销量7.46万辆，同比+18.86%，环比+0.55%，公司营收同比增速优于行业。 2）利润端： 2025Q2公司实现归母净利润3.58亿元，同比+4.00%，环比 +15.44%，符合预期。公司2025Q2毛利率为7.94%，同环比分别+0.77pct/+0.89pct。公司净利率为3.85%，同环比分别+0.17/+0.52pct。 3）费用端： 2025Q2 销 售 / 管 理 / 研 发 / 财 务 费 用 ...

事件概述 公司发布2025年半年报，实现营业收入261.62亿元，同比+7.22%；实现归母净利润6.69亿元，同比 +8.10%；实现扣非归母净利润6.27亿元，同比+7.64%。 25H1，行业重卡销量53.92 万辆，同比+6.88%；公司重卡销量8.1 万辆，同比+14.1%，增速高于行业平 均水平。公司市场份额突破15%，同比增长超1 个百分点。基于以旧换新政策的持续刺激作用，叠加 24H2 重卡销量连续多月走低，低基数下，25Q3 有望实现行业销量大幅增长，我们认为公司销量也会同 步提升。 公司聚焦细分市场，深挖客户差异化需求，新能源市场前瞻布局，出口优势稳固。公司产品在多个细分 市场取得突破成果，集装箱牵引车行业市占率第一；随车吊车型、环卫车市占率增幅行业第一；提前布 局保障车市场，市占率大幅增长；清障车市占率行业第一。公司提前布局新能源领域，紧跟技术迭代与 市场需求，推动业务稳步发展。海外市场借助重汽国际公司的完善网络布局以及高效战略突破，产品出 口优势稳固，市场份额连续二十年位居国内重卡行业第一。 投资建议 预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为16.92/19.89/23.29亿元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance briefing of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Jinan Truck Co., Ltd. highlighted a positive outlook for the heavy truck market, driven by policy support and economic recovery, particularly in the new energy truck segment [2]. Group 1: Operational Performance - In the first half of 2025, the heavy truck market showed a "volatile recovery, strengthening each quarter" trend, with total sales steadily increasing. The heavy truck industry sales reached 539,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [2]. - In July, heavy truck sales reached 83,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42%, marking four consecutive months of positive growth [2]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to experience an upward trend in the second half of the year, with an estimated annual scale of around 1 million units, supported by the "old-for-new" vehicle policy and economic recovery [2]. Group 3: New Energy Trucks - The new energy heavy truck market in China saw rapid growth, with cumulative sales of 79,200 units in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 186%. The company's new energy truck sales grew faster than the industry average [2]. Group 4: Natural Gas Trucks - The domestic natural gas heavy truck market experienced a brief recovery followed by a decline. The "old-for-new" policy has been included in the subsidy scope, injecting vitality into the market [2]. Group 5: Export Performance - The company's export performance remained strong, with exports accounting for nearly 50% of total sales. Key export regions include Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, covering over 100 countries [2]. Group 6: Dividend Policy - The company plans to maintain a stable dividend policy, considering factors such as share capital, performance, funding needs, and development plans, with the intention to increase cash dividend ratios when conditions allow [2]. Group 7: Accounts Receivable Management - The company's sales increased by 14.1% year-on-year, leading to a rise in accounts receivable. The company will implement a comprehensive management approach to control accounts receivable and ensure risk is manageable [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported stable revenue growth in the first half of 2025, achieving operating income of 26.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 669 million yuan, up 8.10% year-on-year [2][3] - The company's heavy truck sales reached 81,000 units in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, which is higher than the industry average growth rate of 6.88% [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy, which is anticipated to stimulate sales in the second half of the year, especially given the low base from the previous year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.253 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.15%, and a net profit of 358 million yuan, up 4.00% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin remained stable at 7.50%, with a slight decline in the parts sales gross margin to 9.42%, down 2.98 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Position - The company has increased its market share to over 15%, growing by more than 1 percentage point year-on-year, and has achieved leading positions in several niche markets, including container tractors and recovery vehicles [3] - The company is strategically positioned in the new energy market and has maintained a strong export advantage, being the top player in the domestic heavy truck industry for 20 consecutive years [3] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.692 billion yuan, 1.989 billion yuan, and 2.329 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.36%, 17.53%, and 17.10% [4] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 12.80X, 10.89X, and 9.30X, respectively [4]

Group 1: Overall Performance - In the first half of 2025, the heavy truck market showed a "volatile recovery, strengthening each quarter," with a total sales volume of 539,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [2][3] - The company sold heavy trucks totaling 14,000 units, achieving a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, outperforming the industry average [3] - Revenue reached 26.16 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 670 million yuan, up 7.6% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Industry Outlook - In July 2025, heavy truck sales reached 83,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42%, indicating a positive market trend [4] - The overall market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with an estimated annual sales volume of around 1 million units [4] Group 3: New Energy Trucks - The new energy heavy truck market experienced rapid growth, with total sales of 79,200 units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 186% [5] - The company’s sales of new energy heavy trucks outpaced the industry growth, driven by policy support and expanding application scenarios [5] Group 4: Natural Gas Trucks - Sales of natural gas heavy trucks in the first half of 2025 totaled 91,500 units, a year-on-year decline of 16% [6][7] - The implementation of the "old-for-new" policy is expected to revitalize the market by accelerating the replacement of old vehicles [7] Group 5: Export Performance - The company's export volume accounted for nearly 50% of total sales in the first half of 2025, focusing on markets in Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East [8] - The export market is transitioning to a more sustainable growth model, with increasing recognition of Chinese brands in emerging markets [8] Group 6: Dividend Policy - The company aims to maintain a stable cash dividend policy, with plans for mid-term cash dividends in 2025 [9] - The dividend payout ratio will be adjusted based on factors such as current share capital, operational performance, and future funding needs [9] Group 7: Accounts Receivable - Accounts receivable increased year-on-year due to a 14.1% rise in sales volume in the first half of 2025 [9] - The company plans to implement comprehensive management strategies to control the scale of accounts receivable while ensuring risk is manageable [9]

Core Insights - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck) reported a revenue of 26.16 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 670 million yuan, with an increase of 8.1% year-on-year, indicating a steady improvement in profitability [1] - The company has optimized operational quality and accelerated its smart transformation, leading to a decrease in the expense ratio by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] Industry Performance - The heavy truck industry showed a steady recovery in the first half of 2025, with sales reaching 539,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [2] - China National Heavy Duty Truck sold 81,000 heavy trucks in the same period, surpassing the industry growth rate with a 14.1% increase [2] - The new energy heavy truck market experienced explosive growth, with sales of 75,000 units, a staggering year-on-year increase of 195.2% [2] Growth Drivers - The implementation of "old-for-new" policies and the dual drive from new energy heavy trucks and overseas markets are expected to boost demand in the second half of 2025 [3] - Analysts predict that the heavy truck industry will continue to grow, with an expected sales volume of 1.067 million units in 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [3] - The company is enhancing its internal management efficiency through a digital transformation strategy focused on precision in processes, data, management, and cost [3]

Market Overview - The commercial vehicle sector increased by 0.84% on August 28, with Shuguang Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3843.6, up 1.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12571.37, up 2.25% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Shuguang Co. (600303) closed at 3.84, up 3.23% with a trading volume of 633,800 shares and a turnover of 240 million yuan [1] - Jianghuai Automobile (600418) closed at 51.19, up 2.34% with a trading volume of 733,100 shares and a turnover of 3.714 billion yuan [1] - Zhongshun Vehicles (301039) closed at 9.03, up 1.12% with a trading volume of 217,300 shares and a turnover of 19.4 million yuan [1] - Foton Motor (600166) closed at 2.74, up 0.37% with a trading volume of 1,409,800 shares and a turnover of 384 million yuan [1] - Yutong Bus (600066) closed at 27.35, up 0.22% with a trading volume of 118,100 shares and a turnover of 322 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include FAW Jiefang (000800) at 7.14, up 0.14%, and Ankai Bus (000868) at 5.84, unchanged [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The commercial vehicle sector experienced a net outflow of 270 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 247 million yuan [2] - The overall fund flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors pulling back while retail investors are more active [2] Detailed Fund Flow by Stock - Jianghuai Automobile saw a net inflow of 29.0692 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 47.1443 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Shuguang Co. experienced a net outflow of 7.9935 million yuan from institutional investors, while speculative funds contributed a net inflow of 17.2662 million yuan [3] - China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951) had a significant net outflow of 36.9903 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net inflow of 38.2937 million yuan from speculative funds [3]