Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The shipping rates on the Asia-Brazil route have surged by 100% due to a shortage of available vessels and containers, with rates reaching $3,300 per container [2][12] - The global new ship order volume has dropped to a four-year low, with only 439 vessels ordered in the first four months of 2025, a significant decrease from 980 vessels in the same period of 2024 [2][13] - During the Dragon Boat Festival in 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 5.63 million, with a total of 101 new international air cargo routes opened in the first five months [2][14] - The express delivery industry saw a 15.4% year-on-year increase in package volume during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a total of 1.511 billion packages collected nationwide [2][21] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The Asia-Brazil shipping rates increased by 100% due to a shortage of vessels and containers, influenced by trade policies and seasonal demand [12] - The civil aviation passenger volume during the Dragon Boat Festival reached 5.63 million, with 101 new international air cargo routes opened [14] - The express delivery industry experienced a 15.4% year-on-year growth in package volume during the Dragon Boat Festival [21] 2. High-Frequency Data Tracking - In May 2025, domestic cargo flight operations decreased by 6.76%, while international flights increased by 26.98% [33] - The shipping price index for domestic trade decreased, while dry bulk freight rates increased [41] - The express delivery business volume in April 2025 rose by 19.10% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 10.80% [52] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Attention to low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Co [4] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [4] - Investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [4]

Core Insights - The Chinese e-commerce logistics market is experiencing rapid growth, becoming a key driver for industrial upgrades and consumption growth in the digital economy era, with a projected market size of 1.4 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.8% [1][14] E-commerce Logistics Overview - E-commerce logistics refers to the supply chain system that provides comprehensive services such as warehousing, sorting, transportation, delivery, and returns for e-commerce transactions, aiming to efficiently connect sellers and consumers [1] E-commerce Logistics Classification - E-commerce logistics can be classified based on service objects (B2C, B2B, C2C), operational models (self-operated, third-party, crowdsourced, cross-border), and delivery timeliness (instant delivery, same-day/next-day delivery, standard delivery) [2][3] Development History of E-commerce Logistics in China - The industry has evolved from traditional delivery methods to intelligent services, with significant growth from 2008 to 2015 due to the explosion of e-commerce platforms, followed by a consolidation phase from 2016 to 2020, and entering a high-quality development phase driven by innovation since 2021 [4] Relevant Policies for E-commerce Logistics - Various policies have been introduced to support the e-commerce logistics sector, focusing on digital empowerment, network optimization, and green transformation, which are essential for the industry's high-quality development [6][7] E-commerce Logistics Industry Chain - The industry has formed a complete value chain, including upstream logistics infrastructure, intelligent devices, and technology service providers, with core operational links involving comprehensive logistics service providers and specialized service providers [8] Current Status of E-commerce Logistics Industry - The online retail market in China has shown steady growth, with online retail sales projected to reach 15.52 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7.19% [10] Competitive Landscape of E-commerce Logistics Industry - The industry features a tiered competitive structure, with leading companies like JD Logistics and SF Express dominating the high-end market, while the second tier includes the "Tongda" system (ZTO, Yunda, YTO) focusing on cost advantages [16][17] Key Enterprises - SF Express reported a revenue of 284.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 182.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% increase [18][20] Future Trends in E-commerce Logistics - The industry is expected to focus on service quality enhancement, accelerated digital transformation, green low-carbon initiatives, and deeper global supply chain integration, driven by technological innovation and evolving consumer demands [22][25][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [1][3][5] Core Views - The logistics sector is benefiting from the introduction of unmanned delivery vehicles, which are expected to reduce costs and improve efficiency in the last mile of delivery [2][47] - The shipping industry is experiencing a divergence in performance, with oil tanker rates rising significantly for smaller vessels while VLCC rates are under pressure due to geopolitical factors [1][20][68] - The air travel sector is entering a low season, but domestic passenger flight volumes remain above 2019 levels, indicating a potential for recovery in pricing and demand [2][40][42] - The express delivery market is seeing strong demand growth, with major players like SF Express and ZTO Express planning to scale up their fleets of unmanned delivery vehicles [2][51] Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - Oil tanker rates have shown significant divergence, with small vessel rates increasing while VLCC rates are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions [1][20] - The report anticipates a rise in shipping rates due to limited new capacity and potential demand recovery, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1][68] Air Travel Sector - The overall and domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased slightly, but remain above 2019 levels, indicating resilience in the market [2][40] - The report suggests that domestic airfares may stabilize and recover in 2025, with recommendations for airlines such as Air China and China Southern Airlines [2][42] Express Delivery Sector - The introduction of unmanned delivery vehicles is expected to significantly reduce costs for leading companies in the express delivery market [2][47] - SF Express is projected to maintain a strong growth rate of 15-20% over the next two years, with a PE ratio of approximately 20 times for 2025 [2][51] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on companies with stable operations and potential for steady returns, including SF Express, ZTO Express, and China Merchants Energy [5][27]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the completion of the first lock-up period for Yunda Holding Group's employee stock ownership plan, which is set to expire on June 9, 2025, and outlines the conditions for unlocking shares based on company performance metrics [1][2][4]. Group 1: Employee Stock Ownership Plan Details - The stock for the employee stock ownership plan comes from shares repurchased by the company, totaling 7 million shares at a price of 6.30 yuan per share [1][2]. - The first unlocking period allows for 50% of the total shares to be unlocked after 20 months from the last transfer of shares to the plan, while the second period allows for 100% after 32 months [2][4]. - The performance assessment for unlocking shares includes both company-level and individual-level evaluations, with the company required to achieve a growth rate in business volume of at least 21.5% in 2024, which is the average growth rate for the express delivery industry [2][3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics and Unlocking Conditions - The company achieved a business volume growth rate of 26.14% in 2024, exceeding the industry average, thus meeting the company-level performance requirements for the first unlocking period [4]. - Individual performance will also be assessed, with unlocking ratios based on performance grades ranging from 100% for grade A to 0% for grade D [4][5]. - A total of 53 individuals qualify for unlocking, with 3 individuals having left the company, resulting in 328.30 thousand shares eligible for unlocking, representing approximately 0.11% of the company's total share capital [5][6]. Group 3: Future Arrangements and Compliance - After the first lock-up period, the management committee will oversee the sale of unlocked shares and distribution of proceeds, subject to approval from the holders' meeting [6][9]. - The plan includes strict compliance with market trading rules and regulations, particularly during sensitive periods surrounding financial disclosures and significant corporate events [6][8]. - The plan can be extended or modified with the consent of two-thirds of the participating holders, and it may be terminated early under certain conditions [8][9].

一、本持股计划的持股情况和锁定期 证券代码：002120 证券简称：韵达股份 公告编号：2025-038 韵达控股集团股份有限公司 关于 2023 年员工持股计划第一个锁定期届满的 提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 韵达控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2023 年 7 月 11 日召开的 第八届董事会第四次会议、第八届监事会第四次会议及 2023 年 8 月 15 日召开的 2023 年第二次临时股东大会审议通过了《关于公司 2023 年员工持股计划（草案） 及摘要的议案》《关于公司 2023 年员工持股计划管理办法的议案》等相关议案， 具体情况详见公司于巨潮资讯网披露的相关公告。 鉴于公司 2023 年员工持股计划（以下简称"本持股计划"）第一个锁定期 于 2025 年 6 月 9 日届满，根据《关于上市公司实施员工持股计划试点的指导意 见》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——主板上市公司规范运 作》等法律、行政法规、规范性文件及《公司 2023 年员工持股计划》等规定， 现将相关情况公告如下： （一）本持 ...

Group 1 - The company has decided not to adjust the conversion price of the "Yunda Convertible Bonds" despite triggering conditions for downward adjustment, citing confidence in the company's long-term development and internal value [5] - The initial conversion price of the convertible bonds was adjusted from 12.15 CNY/share to 12.10 CNY/share, and subsequently to 11.93 CNY/share due to the implementation of annual equity distribution plans [2][3] - The company issued 24.5 million convertible bonds with a total amount of 2.45 billion CNY, with a maturity of 6 years, starting from April 11, 2023 [1] Group 2 - The conversion period for the bonds starts from October 17, 2023, and ends on April 10, 2029 [2] - The company has outlined the conditions under which the conversion price can be adjusted downward, specifically when the stock price is below 85% of the current conversion price for at least 15 trading days within a 30-day period [3][4] - The board of directors will review and decide on any potential adjustments to the conversion price in accordance with relevant regulations and the terms outlined in the offering prospectus [5]

Group 1 - The board meeting of Yunda Holdings was held on June 5, 2025, with all 8 directors present, confirming compliance with relevant laws and regulations [1] - The board discussed the proposal regarding the adjustment of the conversion price for the Yunda convertible bonds, deciding not to lower the conversion price despite conditions being met for a downward adjustment [1] - The company stated that if the conditions for downward adjustment are triggered again within the next six months, it will not propose a downward adjustment plan [1]

韵达控股集团股份有限公司 关于不向下修正韵达转债转股价格的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、截至 2025 年 6 月 5 日，韵达控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"） 股票已经出现在任意连续三十个交易日中至少十五个交易日的收盘价低于当期 转股价格 85.00%的情形，触发"韵达转债"转股价格向下修正条件。 2、公司于 2025 年 6 月 5 日召开的第八届董事会第十九次会议审议通过了 《关于不向下修正韵达转债转股价格的议案》，公司董事会决定本次不向下修正 "韵达转债"的转股价格，且在未来六个月内，如再次触发"韵达转债"转股价 格向下修正条款，亦不提出向下修正方案。 一、可转换公司债券基本情况 | 证券代码：002120 | 证券简称：韵达股份 公告编号：2025-037 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127085 | 债券简称：韵达转债 | （一）可转债发行情况 经中国证券监督管理委员会《关于核准韵达控股股份有限公司公开发行可转 换公司债券的批复》（证监许可[2022]2408 号）核准，公司于 20 ...

韵达控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第八届董事会第十九次会 议于 2025 年 5 月 30 日以电子邮件和书面方式通知各位董事，会议于 2025 年 6 月 5 日召开，本次会议以通讯表决的方式进行。会议应出席的董事 8 人，实际出 席的董事 8 人。会议由董事长聂腾云先生召集，本次会议的出席人数、召集、召 开程序和审议内容均符合《中华人民共和国公司法》等有关法律、行政法规、部 门性规章、规范性文件及《韵达控股集团股份有限公司章程》等有关规定。 二、董事会会议审议情况 1、以 8 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权，审议通过了《关于不向下修正韵达转 债转股价格的议案》。 2025 年 5 月 15 日-2025 年 6 月 5 日，公司股票已经出现在任意连续三十个 交易日中至少十五个交易日的收盘价低于当期转股价格 85.00%的情形，触发"韵 达转债"转股价格向下修正条件。公司董事会决定本次不向下修正"韵达转债" 的转股价格，且在未来六个月内，如再次触发"韵达转债"转股价格向下修正条 款，亦不提出向下修正方案。 | 证券代码：002120 | 证券简称：韵达股份 | 公告编号：2025-036 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for integrated players such as SF Holding, JD Logistics (JDL), and the leader ZTO, while adopting a "Neutral" rating for others like STO, Yunda, and J&T, and a "Sell" rating for YTO and Sinotrans-A/H [7][21]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector in China is experiencing intense price competition, leading to a decline in average selling prices (ASPs) and profitability across franchise-based players, while integrated logistics providers show resilience [1][21]. - The report revises the expected industry volume growth for 2025E from 18% to 20% year-on-year, driven by a shift towards lightweight and small parcels, and the growth of emerging eCommerce platforms [2][21]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape will depend on strategic adjustments by incumbents and potential policy interventions to stabilize pricing [1][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The express delivery sector concluded 1Q25 with a 22% year-on-year volume growth but faced a 6-10% decline in ASPs across major players [21][22]. - The ongoing price competition is attributed to a trade-down trend in eCommerce goods and the need for express players to maintain capacity utilization [22][23]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the group operating profit for Tongda players is expected to decline by approximately 12% year-on-year in 2025E, with SF being the only player projected to see double-digit profit growth [6][7]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for franchise-based players are revised downwards by 9% to 19% below Bloomberg consensus [7][21]. Company-Specific Insights - SF Holding is noted for its strong performance, with a 20% year-on-year EBIT growth in 1Q25, benefiting from cost optimization and a diversified revenue stream [1][40]. - ZTO is highlighted as the only Buy-rated franchise-based express delivery name, expected to stabilize its market share despite near-term earnings weakness [7][21]. - Yunda and YTO are projected to experience low-to-mid teens year-on-year profit declines, while STO and J&T China are expected to see flat earnings [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report anticipates continued competition in 2Q-3Q25, with potential for strategic adjustments or industry consolidation to mitigate pricing pressures [1][21]. - The ASP for express delivery services is forecasted to decline by 6% to 8% across major players in 2Q25E, reflecting a slightly easier base compared to 1Q [22][23]. Volume and Revenue Estimates - The report raises the industry volume estimate for 2025E to 20% year-on-year, factoring in strong growth momentum and a shift in parcel mix [2][21]. - Revenue estimates for ZTO are cut by 6% due to less-than-expected impacts from gross revenue bookings, while Yunda and YTO see slight revenue increases [2][6]. Valuation - The report continues to value China express delivery companies based on a 1-year forward EV/EBITDA multiple, which remains unchanged at an average of 7X [13][15].