Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Hikvision (002415 SZ) [1][3] Core Views - Hikvision's Q3 2024 revenue reached 237 82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0 33%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 30 44 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13 37% [1] - The company's performance is expected to reach an inflection point due to ongoing fiscal policies and cost reduction efforts, with fiscal policies potentially driving business recovery [1] - The report forecasts Hikvision's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 985 6 billion yuan, 1,093 13 billion yuan, and 1,225 72 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS of 1 54 yuan, 1 80 yuan, and 2 08 yuan [1] Business Segment Analysis PBG Business - PBG revenue grew positively in Q3 2024, supported by government funding in areas such as water conservancy, disaster prevention, and emergency management [1] - Digitization-related businesses like traffic management and government governance continue to increase their share in PBG [1] EBG Business - EBG revenue saw slight year-on-year growth in Q3 2024, driven by active demand for digital transformation aimed at cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1] - Growth in the smart building sector remains negative, while industries like petrochemicals, coal, education, and finance continue to grow [1] SMBG Business - SMBG revenue declined significantly in Q3 2024 due to weak social demand and tight capital conditions, leading to inventory reduction efforts [1] Overseas Business - Overseas revenue continued to grow in Q3 2024, albeit at a slower pace, with the Middle East and Africa showing faster growth while the US and Canada remained in decline [1] Innovation Business - Innovation business growth slowed in Q3 2024 compared to the first half of the year, with micro-imaging, automotive electronics, and fire safety showing faster growth [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are projected at 10 32%, 10 91%, and 12 13%, respectively [4] - Net profit growth rates for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 0 48%, 17 27%, and 15 72%, respectively [4] - Gross margins are expected to remain stable, ranging from 44 44% to 45 33% over the forecast period [4] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 20x, 17x, and 15x, respectively [1][4] - The PB ratio for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 3 6x, 3 2x, and 2 9x, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 47.25 CNY based on a 27x PE valuation for 2025 [2][4][9] Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue remained flat year-on-year at 23.78 billion CNY, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 13% to 3.04 billion CNY. For the first three quarters, revenue grew by 6% to 64.99 billion CNY, but net profit fell by 8% to 8.11 billion CNY [1] - The report highlights a divergence in domestic business performance, with the company actively adjusting SMBG inventory. PBG showed positive revenue growth in Q3, particularly in digital governance-related sectors such as water management and emergency management, while SMBG experienced a significant decline due to inventory reduction efforts [1] - The overseas business and innovation sectors continued to grow, with the overseas main business maintaining growth albeit at a slower pace. The demand for project-based sales is increasing, especially in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.52 CNY, 1.75 CNY, and 2.01 CNY for 2024-2026, respectively, with adjustments made to revenue and expense ratios [2][9] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 96.25 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8%. The operating profit is expected to be 16.16 billion CNY, reflecting a slight increase of 1% [7][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 14.04 billion CNY in 2024, showing a slight decrease of 1% compared to 2023 [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision (002415.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][9]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive mid-term policy outlook and long-term growth potential driven by digital transformation. Despite a short-term slowdown in business growth, the company achieved a revenue of 649.91 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.67% year-on-year [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 237.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.33% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.67%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 30.44 billion yuan, down 13.37% year-on-year and 3.32% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin was 44.51%, slightly down from the previous year [1][2][3]. Business Segments - The EBG (Enterprise Business Group) and PBG (Public Business Group) showed positive revenue growth in Q3, while the SMBG (Small and Medium Business Group) faced short-term pressure. The EBG's digitalization demand remains resilient, and the PBG benefited from government support in areas like water management and emergency response. The SMBG experienced negative growth due to weak social demand and tight funding [1][3]. International and Innovative Business - The overseas and innovative business segments continued to grow, although at a slower pace compared to the first half of the year. All four overseas business centers reported positive growth, particularly in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. The innovative business, including sectors like automotive electronics and fire safety, saw rapid growth despite domestic demand challenges [1][3]. Long-term Growth Drivers - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement, which is expected to drive long-term growth through digitalization across various industries. The collaboration with State Grid on coal quality detection technology marks a significant advancement in AI applications in the coal management sector [1][3]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 141 billion yuan, 160 billion yuan, and 180 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 18, 16, and 14 times [1][2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 649.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 81.1 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year [4][5] - Despite weak domestic demand and inventory reduction efforts with distributors, the company demonstrated resilience [5] - The company expects gradual improvement in performance as macroeconomic support policies are implemented [6] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 30.61 yuan - One-year high/low: 37.75/24.71 yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 3.7 - Dividend yield: 2.94% - Circulating A-share market value: 278,735 million yuan [2] Financial Data - Net asset per share: 8.32 yuan - Asset-liability ratio: 32.96% - Total share capital: 9,233 million shares [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2024: 94,453 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7% - Net profit forecast for 2024: 13,581 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.7% - Earnings per share forecast for 2024: 1.47 yuan [7] Segment Performance - PBG segment showed positive revenue growth in Q3 2024, supported by government-related projects - EBG segment experienced slight revenue growth despite overall investment slowdown - SMBG segment faced significant revenue decline due to weak social demand and tight funding [5] - Overseas business maintained growth, although at a slower pace, with a shift towards project-based sales [5] Profitability and Cost Management - Q3 2024 gross margin was stable at 44.25% - Sales, management, and R&D expenses grew at 11.0%, 3.6%, and 5.2% respectively, with growth rates slowing compared to previous quarters [6] - The company anticipates maintaining low expense growth, which could lead to significant profit elasticity once demand improves [6]

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|海康威视（002415） 第三季度业绩承压，财政政策支持下有 望逐步改善 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月29日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 海康威视发布 2024 年第三季度报告，2024 年前三季度公司实现营收 649.91 亿元，同比增长 6.06%；归母净利润 81.08 亿元，同比下降 8.40%。国内需求承压，海外市场平稳，业绩短期 承压。鉴于公司是全球安防领域龙头，财政政策支持下业务有望逐步改善，维持"买入"评 级。 |分析师及联系人 黄楷 SAC：S0590522090001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月29日 海康威视(002415) 第三季度业绩承压，财政政策支持下有望逐 步改善 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------------------| | | | | 行 业： | 计算机/计算机设备 | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 30.95 元 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision (002415) with an expectation of a relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [1][16]. Core Views - The demand for enterprise digitalization continues to grow, with AI applications increasingly being implemented. Despite a slowdown in revenue growth, the gross margin remains stable [1][4]. - The company has established a strong foundation in AI technology, with significant advancements in AI applications, such as the rapid coal quality detection technology developed in collaboration with the National Energy Group [4]. - The report forecasts a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024-2026 due to weak domestic market demand, with projected revenues of 940.97 billion, 1056.29 billion, and 1194.33 billion respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 649.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.06%, and a net profit of 81.08 billion, up 8.40% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 44.76%, a slight decrease of 0.09% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue for Q3 2024 was 237.82 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.33% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.67% [1]. Business Segments - The report highlights that the enterprise digitalization demand remains active, particularly in the EBG business, which aids industry clients in digital transformation [1][4]. - The PBG business has shown signs of recovery, with revenue growth expected as special bonds are issued to support projects in water conservancy and disaster management [1][4]. Future Outlook - The report projects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 940.97 billion, 1056.29 billion, and 1194.33 billion respectively, with net profits of 137.60 billion, 160.64 billion, and 185.73 billion [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.49, 1.74, and 2.01 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5].

海外的这个项目收入和产品收入之间的这个比例实际上项目收入也是在持续增长的那未来我们对项目的这一块增长还是比较有信心的谢谢谢谢我们没有别的问题了谢谢下面有请国金证券孟灿进行提问 好的 感谢黄总 感谢凤总我这边有几个问题就一一请教第一个就是大家也比较关注包括地产的拖抵和划贷的这些相关的政策往下落进的过程中间不知道咱们上市公司对于存量的这种应收账款的回款包括已经中标但是还之前没怎么往前推进的比如像那些郑州这样的拉价目 大概是什么样的一个定性的判断和那个最新的一个感受另外呢就是说对于这些政策伊朗的政策往下落地的过程中间对我们这个未来的这个尤其国内的总体的这个需求这一块的一些这种增量的变化和展望大概会是什么样的一个定性定量的一个估计谢谢谢谢 现在大家都在看中央财政对华寨这一块的政策落地确实就是现在还等待政策进一步明朗的一个过程但是我个人从这方面得到的消息来说应该说是政策各方面还是比较清晰比较确定的那么从中央项目的经营这个角度来说 其实海康过去因为我们跟政府的业务从我们海康成立到现在一直在做政府的业务总体来说坏账的情况其实还可以我们在半年报的时候当时也曾经跟大家分享过一个小的案例就是在比较偏远的一个地区我们大概在18、1 ...

海外的这个项目收入和产品收入之间的这个比例实际上项目收入也是在持续增长的那未来我们对项目的这一块增长还是比较有信心的谢谢谢谢我们没有别的问题了谢谢下面有请国金证券孟灿进行提问 好的 感谢黄总 感谢凤总我这边有几个问题就一一请教第一个就是大家也比较关注包括地产的拖抵和划贷的这些相关的政策往下落进的过程中间不知道咱们上市公司对于存量的这种应收账款的回款包括已经中标但是还之前没怎么往前推进的比如像那些郑州这样的拉价目 大概是什么样的一个定性的判断和那个最新的一个感受另外呢就是说对于这些政策伊朗的政策往下落地的过程中间对我们这个未来的这个尤其国内的总体的这个需求这一块的一些这种增量的变化和展望大概会是什么样的一个定性定量的一个估计谢谢谢谢 现在大家都在看中央财政对华寨这一块的政策落地确实就是现在还等待政策进一步明朗的一个过程但是我个人从这方面得到的消息来说应该说是政策各方面还是比较清晰比较确定的那么从中央项目的经营这个角度来说 其实海康过去因为我们跟政府的业务从我们海康成立到现在一直在做政府的业务总体来说坏账的情况其实还可以我们在半年报的时候当时也曾经跟大家分享过一个小的案例就是在比较偏远的一个地区我们大概在18、1 ...

公 司 报 告 公 司 季 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024年10月27日 电子 海康威视(002415.SZ) AI引领行业变革，静待国内需求恢复 推荐 ( 维持) 事项： 股价:30.95元 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|------------------------------| | 行业 | 电子 | | 公司网址 | www.hikvision.com | | 大股东 / 持股 | 中电海康集团有限公司 /36.93% | | 实际控制人 | 国务院国有资产监督管理委员会 | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 9,233 | | 流通 A 股 ( 百万股 ) | 9,106 | | | | | 流通 B/H 股 ( 百万股 ) | | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 2,858 | | 流通 A 股市值 ( 亿元 ) | 2,818 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) 资产负债率 (%) | 8.32 33.0 | | 行情走势图 | | 证券分析师 | --- | |--------| | | | 徐勇 | | 付强 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision, with expected revenue growth of 6.9%/11.8%/13.3% for 2024-2026 [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 649.91 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.06%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.40% to 81.08 billion RMB [1]. - The domestic market demand is relatively weak, while the overseas market remains stable, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth [1]. - The gross margin and expense ratio have remained stable, indicating strong competitive and management capabilities [1]. - There are expectations for demand recovery, with internal cost optimization and a potential increase in business opportunities in emerging overseas markets [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 237.82 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.33% year-on-year, while net profit for the same period was 30.44 billion RMB, down 13.37% [1]. - Gross margins for the first three quarters and Q3 were 44.76% and 44.25%, respectively, showing a minor decline [1]. - R&D, sales, management, and financial expense ratios for the first three quarters were 13.44%, 13.37%, 3.48%, and -0.20%, respectively [1]. Market Outlook - There is an anticipated improvement in domestic market demand, with the acceleration of special bond issuance expected to positively impact the PBG sub-sectors [1]. - The EBG sector is seeing active digitalization demand aimed at cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1]. - The SMBG sector is expected to benefit from reduced overall industry inventory, enhancing business development flexibility [1]. - Emerging overseas markets show good growth potential, with non-video business segments growing faster [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 954.9 billion RMB, 1,067.5 billion RMB, and 1,209.2 billion RMB, respectively [1]. - The net profit forecasts for the same years are 141.2 billion RMB, 173.2 billion RMB, and 206.8 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 0.07%, 22.68%, and 19.41% [1].