Investment Rating - The investment rating for Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb9.62 per share based on a 2.22x 2025E P/B [18] - The investment rating for Baoshan Iron & Steel is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb8.2 per share based on a 0.85x 2025E P/B [22] - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium is "Hold" with a target price of HK$23.0 for H-shares and Rmb26.26 for A-shares [24][27] Core Insights - The report indicates cautious market expectations regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector in China, with a near-term pecking order of steel > aluminum > lithium > copper > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1] - Total aluminum production in China for the week of June 12-18, 2025, was 845kt, flat week-over-week (WoW), and up 3% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Total aluminum inventory in China stood at 722kt on June 19, 2025, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a significant 38% decrease YoY [3] - Apparent aluminum consumption in China was 849kt during the same week, down 6% WoW but up 5.8% YoY for the year-to-date [4] Production Summary - China's total aluminum production year-to-date reached 20.9 million tonnes (mnt), representing a 3.2% increase YoY, while aluminum billet production was 8.4mnt, up 6.2% YoY [2] - Aluminum billet production for the week was 365kt, flat WoW, and up 9% YoY [2] Inventory Summary - The total inventory of aluminum ingots was 493kt, down 3% WoW and 40% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 229kt, up 9% WoW but down 30% YoY [3] - The inventory levels are lower than the same period in 2021-2024 on a lunar calendar basis [7] Consumption Summary - Apparent consumption of aluminum ingots was 885kt, down 3% WoW but up 1% YoY, while aluminum billet apparent consumption was 329kt, down 7% WoW but up 3% YoY [4] - Year-to-date apparent consumption of aluminum in China reached 21.6mnt, reflecting a 5.8% increase YoY [4]

A股能源金属板块走高，腾远钴业涨超10%，赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、永杉锂业、融捷股份、盛新锂能等 跟涨。消息面上，刚果金政府宣布延长3个月钴的临时禁令，全球钴供应量或将大幅下降。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the China Securities New Energy Vehicle Index has experienced a decline, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the new energy vehicle sector [1][2]. - The China Securities New Energy Vehicle Index has decreased by 4.15% in the past month, 12.37% in the past three months, and 0.15% year-to-date [2]. - The index includes companies involved in lithium batteries, charging piles, and new energy vehicles, with a base date of December 31, 2011, set at 1000.0 points [2]. Group 2 - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: CATL (9.97%), BYD (9.96%), Huichuan Technology (9.81%), Changan Automobile (5.17%), Sanhua Intelligent Control (4.7%), Yiwei Lithium Energy (4.34%), Huayou Cobalt (4.07%), Ganfeng Lithium (2.91%), Greenmech (2.62%), and Tianqi Lithium (2.55%) [2]. - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (84.23%), followed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange (15.18%) and the Beijing Stock Exchange (0.59%) [2]. - The industry composition of the index holdings includes 58.87% in industrials, 24.47% in consumer discretionary, 15.49% in materials, and 1.16% in information technology [2]. Group 3 - The index samples are adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3]. - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [3]. - Companies that are delisted or undergo mergers, acquisitions, or splits are handled according to specific calculation and maintenance guidelines [3].

Group 1: Liquidity and Performance of Rare Metal ETF - The rare metal ETF had an intraday turnover of 1.2%, with a transaction value of 10.24 million yuan [3] - Over the past year, the average daily transaction value of the rare metal ETF was 36.11 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The net asset value of the rare metal ETF increased by 13.41% over the past year [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 24.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being 3 months and an average monthly return of 7.60% [3] Group 2: Growth and Valuation of Rare Metal ETF - The rare metal ETF's scale grew by 5.45 million yuan over the past year, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The latest financing buy-in amount reached 1.70 million yuan, with a financing balance of 25.74 million yuan [3] - The valuation of the index tracked by the ETF is at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 2.21, lower than 84.84% of the time over the past five years, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [3] Group 3: Export Controls and Market Dynamics - Since 2023, China has implemented export controls on various rare metals, leading to significant price increases for most of these metals [4] - The demand for rare earth materials in domestic sectors such as new energy vehicles and air conditioning is expected to grow at rates of 37% and 19%, respectively, by 2025 [4] - The domestic rare earth market may be entering a destocking phase, with overseas price increases likely to drive domestic prices up [4] Group 4: Top Holdings in Rare Metal Index - The top ten weighted stocks in the rare metal index include Salt Lake Co., Northern Rare Earth, and others, accounting for 54.9% of the index [4] - The individual weightings of these stocks vary, with Salt Lake Co. at 9.04% and Northern Rare Earth at 8.25% [6]

Group 1: Market Trends - Lithium carbonate futures have seen a significant decline, with the main contract LC2507 dropping below 60,000 yuan/ton for three consecutive days, reaching a low of 59,500 yuan/ton and closing at 60,400 yuan/ton on May 26-28 [1] - On June 3, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to 60,800 yuan/ton, indicating a continuous downward trend in the market [1] - The oversupply of lithium salts is becoming increasingly evident, with the supply-demand imbalance expected to persist into 2025, keeping prices around 60,000 yuan/ton [2][3] Group 2: Impact on Companies - Companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium have reported significant impacts on their cash flow due to falling lithium prices, with Ganfeng's net cash flow from operating activities plummeting from 118 million yuan to -1.571 billion yuan year-on-year, a decline of 1422.07% [2] - The ongoing price decline has led to reduced investment enthusiasm among companies, as seen with Fangyuan Co. deciding to terminate a 3 billion yuan investment project in battery-grade lithium carbonate production [2] Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The high production levels of lithium carbonate continue, while the growth rate of the downstream electric vehicle market has not met expectations, leading to low purchasing willingness among battery and vehicle manufacturers [3] - The slow pace of capacity clearance is evident, with some high-cost Australian mines announcing production cuts, but the overall reduction in supply has not been significant enough to rebalance the market [4][5] Group 4: Cost Management Strategies - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to navigate the pressures of declining lithium prices, with Salt Lake Co. enhancing production processes and optimizing supply chains [7] - Ganfeng Lithium is developing multiple resource projects with long-term cost advantages, aiming to mitigate the impact of falling lithium prices on its business [7][8] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that a significant turnaround in the lithium market may require key catalysts such as substantial production cuts from large-scale mines or increased downstream demand [7] - The forecast for lithium prices in the second half of 2025 is expected to range between 60,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton, indicating potential stabilization [5]

川西锂矿又有新进展。《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，天齐锂业（SZ002466，股价29.9元，市值490.7 亿元）子公司和宁德时代（SZ300750，股价245.57元，市值1.12万亿元）子公司在6月12日共同设立了 两家子公司，一家涉及尾矿项目，另一家涉及供水业务。至此，宁德时代和天齐锂业在"电、水、矿"三 大层面均形成合作。 对于锂矿开采而言，"电、水以及尾矿处理"均是出矿的前置条件。 一家主要涉及尾矿项目 6月12日，四川慕云泽矿业有限责任公司（以下简称慕云泽）成立。天眼查显示，该公司由天齐锂业子 公司四川天齐盛合锂业有限公司（以下简称盛合锂业）、宁德时代子公司雅江县斯诺威矿业发展有限公 司（以下简称斯诺威）共同持股。慕云泽注册资本5亿元，经营范围包括选矿、非金属矿及制品销售 等。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，慕云泽的董事长、法定代表人为孔策，他是天齐锂业负责四川雅江措拉 锂辉石矿（以下简称措拉矿）开采的关键管理人员之一。慕云泽还有一名董事叫王卫娜，她主要处理天 齐锂业ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）项目。最近一年以来，天齐锂业都很重视国内矿的开采，既要锂 资源在外，也寻求锂资源在内。 慕云泽的注册地址 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Tianqi Lithium and CATL aims to accelerate the development of local lithium mining projects, enhancing resource complementarity and market competitiveness in the lithium industry [2][3]. Group 1: Company Collaborations - Tianqi Lithium's subsidiary and CATL's subsidiary established two new companies, Sichuan Muyunze Mining Co., Ltd. and Sichuan Miaowei Water Co., Ltd., focusing on mineral processing and water supply [2]. - The registered capital of Muyunze Mining is 500 million RMB, located in Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province, with a focus on mineral processing and environmental monitoring [2]. - The ownership structure of Muyunze Mining shows Tianqi Lithium holding 60% and CATL holding 40% [2]. Group 2: Resource Development - The new mining company is strategically located near the Tso La mine, part of Asia's largest hard rock lithium deposit, with significant resource potential in the "West Kunlun-Songpan-Ganzi" mineralization belt [3]. - The Tso La mine is expected to become Tianqi Lithium's first domestic source of lithium concentrate, with ongoing feasibility studies and project advancements [3]. Group 3: Market Position and Performance - In 2024, Tianqi Lithium reported a revenue of 13.063 billion RMB, a decrease of 67.75% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 7.905 billion RMB, marking a significant decline in performance [6]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed signs of recovery with a net profit of 104 million RMB, a substantial improvement from a loss of 3.897 billion RMB in the same period last year [7]. - Tianqi Lithium is facing external pressures from resource nationalization policies in major lithium-producing countries, prompting a focus on domestic mining and resource control [7][9]. Group 4: Strategic Investments - CATL is diversifying its lithium resource portfolio both domestically and internationally, with interests in various lithium mines across China and the "Lithium Triangle" in South America [4]. - Tianqi Lithium is also increasing its capital investment to strengthen control over existing resources and explore new lithium production areas [9].

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate prices have continued to decline, with prices for industrial-grade lithium carbonate in East China at 58,500 to 60,100 yuan per ton and battery-grade at 59,800 to 61,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 400 yuan per ton from the previous period [1] - Since July 2020, lithium carbonate prices have experienced significant volatility, peaking at 570,000 yuan per ton in November 2022, followed by a decline to around 60,000 yuan per ton by early June 2025, representing a drop of over 89% from the peak [1] - The core reason for the price volatility is the reversal of supply and demand dynamics, with continued expansion in the lithium carbonate supply chain leading to oversupply, while the bottom price remains uncertain as it approaches some companies' cash cost lines [1] Group 2 - In June, some smelting plants resumed production, but overseas shipping data indicates a potential decrease in lithium carbonate imports, leading to a tight balance in supply and demand [2] - Analysts expect short-term price fluctuations for lithium carbonate, with limited downward momentum due to the market's focus on low warehouse inventories [2] - The mid-term outlook for lithium carbonate remains challenging, with strong smelting plant output and weak terminal demand, indicating a trend towards a seasonal decline in consumption [2] Group 3 - As lithium ore prices continue to decline and approach mining costs, more production capacity may be forced to exit the market [3] - Companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to enhance competitiveness in the lithium industry [3] - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in capital expenditures, which may lead to a decrease in supply growth, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics as demand continues to grow [3] Group 4 - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a challenging period for lithium carbonate smelting plants, emphasizing the need for sufficient cash flow and lithium ore resources to survive [4] - Cost reduction is identified as the most urgent requirement for companies to avoid being eliminated from the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of two joint ventures by Tianqi Lithium and CATL marks significant progress in lithium mining operations in Sichuan, focusing on mining, water supply, and tailings management [2][4][7]. Group 1: Joint Ventures and Operations - Tianqi Lithium's subsidiary and CATL's subsidiary jointly established Sichuan Muyunze Mining Co., Ltd. on June 12, with a registered capital of 500 million yuan, focusing on mining and non-metallic mineral sales [4][5]. - The joint venture, Sichuan Muyunze, is strategically located near Tianqi Lithium's Zuo La lithium mine, which is part of a world-class lithium mineralization belt with over 6.5 million tons of identified resources [5][6]. - Another joint venture, Sichuan Miaowei Water Co., Ltd., was also established on June 12, with a registered capital of 200 million yuan, focusing on water production and supply [7]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Collaboration - The collaboration between Tianqi Lithium and CATL encompasses essential infrastructure for lithium mining, including electricity, water, and tailings management, which are critical for mining operations [3][7]. - In July 2023, Zijin Mining acquired a 20% stake in Tianqi Lithium's subsidiary, enhancing its mining capabilities and accelerating lithium extraction processes [6]. - A cooperation agreement was signed in March 2022 among Tianqi Lithium, CATL, and Huirong Mining for the construction and operation of a 220kV power supply project, indicating substantial progress in mining infrastructure [6]. Group 3: Market Context - The lithium carbonate market is currently experiencing price fluctuations, with futures prices dropping below 60,000 yuan per ton as of late May [8].

Group 1: Ganfeng Lithium - Ganfeng Lithium has established a closed-loop lithium ecosystem with an integrated layout across upstream lithium resource development, midstream lithium salt processing, and downstream lithium battery manufacturing and recycling [1][2] - The company has a lithium salt production capacity of over 150,000 tons LCE domestically and an additional 40,000 tons LCE from the Cauchari lithium salt lake in Argentina, totaling nearly 200,000 tons LCE [1][2] - Ganfeng Lithium is expanding its lithium salt processing capacity to meet growing demand while maintaining risk control and effective inventory management [1][2] Group 2: Tianqi Lithium - Tianqi Lithium focuses on strategic resource layout in China, Australia, and Chile, aiming to build leading-scale lithium compound production bases [6][7] - The company has a lithium concentrate production capacity of 162,000 tons per year at the Greenbushes lithium mine, with plans for further expansions [7] - Tianqi Lithium holds a 22.16% stake in SQM, the largest lithium salt lake producer globally, which enhances its investment returns [9] Group 3: Salt Lake Potash - Salt Lake Potash has a chlorate potassium production capacity of 5 million tons per year, playing a crucial role in stabilizing the potassium fertilizer market [11] - The company has a current lithium carbonate production capacity of 30,000 tons per year, with plans for a new integrated lithium salt project with a capacity of 40,000 tons per year [12] Group 4: Yongxing Materials - Yongxing Materials has established a dual business model of "new materials + new energy," optimizing its entire industry chain to reduce costs and enhance competitiveness [14][15] - The company has achieved a carbon lithium production cost of 50,000 yuan per ton, with expectations for further cost optimization [14] Group 5: Zhongjin Lingnan - Zhongjin Lingnan has diversified its operations into lithium and other mineral resources, with a focus on reducing costs in its lithium mining operations [16][17] - The company has significant lithium resources in Canada and Zimbabwe, with plans for further capacity expansions [18] Group 6: Self-owned Lithium Mines - The company has three production bases with a total lithium salt processing capacity of approximately 73,000 tons, with plans for further expansions [21] - The company has secured priority supply rights for the Li family lithium mine, which has a lithium oxide resource of approximately 50,220 tons [21][22] Group 7: Shengxin Lithium Energy - Shengxin Lithium Energy has established four major lithium resource layouts and five lithium product production bases, positioning itself as a leading player in the domestic lithium market [23][24] - The company has a lithium carbonate production capacity of 42,000 tons per year, with ongoing projects to increase capacity [25][26]