Group 1 - Lithium prices have dropped to 63,000 yuan/ton, falling below the cost line for many integrated lithium extraction companies, leading to a challenging operating environment for some firms [1][4] - In Q1 2025, 14 out of 21 listed lithium mining companies in A-shares reported profits, while 7 incurred losses, indicating a divergence in performance within the sector [1][2] - The overall revenue of listed lithium mining companies in Q1 2025 reached 43.965 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.03%, while net profit surged by 1340.4% to 3.343 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024 [2][3] Group 2 - Major companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium showed significant performance divergence, with Ganfeng reporting a revenue decline of 25.43% to 3.772 billion yuan and a net loss of 356 million yuan, while Tianqi turned a profit of 104 million yuan after a loss of 3.897 billion yuan in the previous year [2][3] - The lithium salt production capacity continues to grow, with domestic production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium chloride increasing by 35.35%, 29.54%, and 37.14% respectively in 2024 [4][5] - Despite the price drop, many companies have not reduced production capacity; for instance, Ganfeng Lithium and Yahua Group increased their lithium carbonate production by approximately 24% and 10% respectively [5][6] Group 3 - The demand side faces challenges, as the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has not increased significantly, leading to uncertainty in achieving expected growth for the year [6] - The overall market for lithium carbonate remains weak, with supply-demand imbalances persisting unless significant production cuts occur [6]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the China Securities New Energy Vehicle Index has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline in the index value despite a notable increase over the past month [2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities New Energy Vehicle Index has decreased by 0.27%, closing at 2952.77 points with a trading volume of 27.231 billion yuan [1]. - Over the past month, the index has increased by 11.17%, while it has decreased by 3.61% over the last three months and has risen by 3.04% year-to-date [2]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index includes companies involved in lithium batteries, charging stations, and new energy vehicles, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies [2]. - The top ten weighted companies in the index are BYD (13.47%), Huichuan Technology (11.56%), CATL (9.64%), Sanhua Intelligent Control (4.86%), Yiwei Lithium Energy (4.34%), Huayou Cobalt (3.87%), Ganfeng Lithium (2.83%), Greenmeadows (2.6%), Tianqi Lithium (2.46%), and Hongfa Technology (2.23%) [2]. Group 3: Market and Sector Distribution - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (82.93%), followed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange (16.47%) and the Beijing Stock Exchange (0.60%) [2]. - In terms of industry distribution, the index comprises 56.65% in industrials, 24.48% in consumer discretionary, 17.70% in materials, and 1.18% in information technology [2]. Group 4: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3]. - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [3].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid decline in lithium salt prices is seen as a necessary phase for market clearing, with significant implications for upstream mining companies as operational pressures increase [1] Supply - The cost of lithium mining has decreased significantly, leading to a drop in Australian lithium prices, which fell to $743 per ton, a 9% decrease since April [1] - Some Australian mines reported substantial reductions in production costs, with Marion lithium mine's Q1 FOB cost dropping to 708 AUD/ton from 1076 AUD/ton in the second half of 2024 [1] - The overall cost reduction in lithium mining is expected to continue, but the survival space for Australian mines is shrinking due to lower lithium prices [1] Inventory - As of April 30, China's lithium carbonate inventory reached 96,000 tons, the highest level since 2021, indicating a supply surplus in the market [2] - The inventory held by smelters and downstream sectors also reached record highs, with smelters holding 51,000 tons and downstream holding 45,000 tons [2] Production - The rapid decline in lithium salt prices has led to a cost inversion for lithium salt refining companies, with production cash costs exceeding market prices [3] - In April, China's lithium carbonate production fell to 74,000 tons, a 7% decrease month-on-month, while lithium hydroxide production decreased by 1% to 25,000 tons [3] - The reduction in production is expected to intensify as the cost inversion deepens, particularly affecting higher-cost mining operations [3] Demand - Demand for lithium salts is primarily driven by the electric vehicle and energy storage battery markets, with a 42% year-on-year increase in China's new energy vehicle wholesale sales in the first four months of 2025 [4] - Global energy storage installations are projected to grow by 36% in 2025, reaching 216 GWh [4] - Despite some preemptive inventory accumulation due to tariff expectations, the overall growth rate for lithium salt demand remains robust and is expected to outpace supply growth [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights the remarkable journey of Jiang Weiping, known as the "Lithium King," who transformed Tianqi Lithium from a small company into a global lithium giant over a decade [2][11] Group 1: Strategic Decisions - In 2012, Jiang Weiping took decisive action to prevent Rockwood from acquiring Talison, a major lithium supplier, which would have severely impacted China's lithium resource supply [3][4] - Jiang leveraged his entire fortune and borrowed extensively to acquire 19.99% of Talison, becoming its second-largest shareholder and successfully blocking the acquisition [4][6] Group 2: Global Expansion - After securing Talison, Jiang set his sights on SQM, a leading lithium producer in Chile, and in 2017, he acquired 23.77% of SQM for $4.066 billion (approximately 259 billion RMB) [6][7] - The acquisition of SQM significantly enhanced Tianqi Lithium's global influence in the lithium market, despite the financial risks involved [6][7] Group 3: Crisis Management - Following a downturn in lithium prices and financial difficulties, Tianqi Lithium faced severe challenges, including a loss of nearly 60 billion RMB in 2019 [7][8] - Jiang demonstrated resilience by exploring various financing options and successfully brought in IGO as a strategic investor, allowing the company to stabilize [8][10] Group 4: Long-term Vision - Jiang's acquisitions were not only reactive but also strategic, aimed at securing China's long-term lithium resource needs amid growing demand in the renewable energy sector [10][11] - His foresight and ability to navigate through adversity exemplify the spirit of entrepreneurship, contributing significantly to the development of China's lithium industry [11]

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 13.1 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 68%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.9 billion, a year-on-year decline of 208% [1] - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 3 billion, down 58% quarter-on-quarter and 18% year-on-year, with a net profit of -2.2 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 175% and a year-on-year decline of 345% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.584 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.02%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 104 million, a year-on-year increase of 102.68% [1] Operational Developments - The company has expanded its lithium chemical product capacity to over 120,000 tons, with Greenbushes currently having a total lithium concentrate capacity of approximately 1.62 million tons per year [2] - In 2024, the company produced 1.41 million tons of lithium concentrate, including 1.353 million tons of chemical-grade lithium concentrate and 57,000 tons of technical-grade lithium concentrate [2] - The construction of key projects is progressing steadily, with the chemical-grade plant No. 3's dry processing facility completed, and the wet processing facility construction is set to advance in the first half of 2025 [2] Investment Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.768 billion, 3.176 billion, and 5.150 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 27, 15, and 9 times [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported an improvement in profitability in Q1, with ongoing expansion in resource capacity [1] - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 13.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 208% [1] - The main reasons for the profitability improvement include a shortened pricing cycle for lithium ore and the resolution of tax disputes impacting net profit [1] - The company is expanding its resource capacity, with planned lithium chemical product capacity exceeding 120,000 tons [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.768 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27, 15, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 13.063 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 67.7% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -7.905 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 208.3% [5] - The gross margin is expected to be 46.1% in 2024, improving to 50.2% by 2027 [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to recover from -18.9% in 2024 to 9.9% in 2027 [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to turn positive, reaching 3.14 yuan by 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported an improvement in profitability in Q1, with continued expansion on the resource side [1] - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 13.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 208% [1] - The main reasons for the improvement in profitability include a shortened pricing cycle for lithium ore and the resolution of tax disputes impacting net profit [1] - The company plans to expand its lithium chemical product capacity to over 120,000 tons [2] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.768 billion, 3.176 billion, and 5.150 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 27, 15, and 9 [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 13.063 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 67.7% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -7.905 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 208.3% [5] - The gross margin is expected to be 46.1% in 2024, improving to 50.2% by 2027 [5] - The company anticipates a return on equity (ROE) of -18.9% in 2024, improving to 9.9% by 2027 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be -4.82 yuan in 2024, increasing to 3.14 yuan by 2027 [5]

Summary of Tianqi Lithium's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium - **Industry**: Lithium Industry Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 104 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.68% [3] - The operating cash flow reached 952 million yuan, indicating robust cash flow performance [3] - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 44.42 million yuan [2][3] Factors Contributing to Performance Improvement - The improvement in performance is attributed to optimized supply chain management and a shortened lithium ore pricing cycle, which mitigated the impact of pricing mechanism mismatches [2][4] - The cost of chemical-grade lithium concentrate has approached the latest procurement prices due to new lithium spodumene purchases and inventory digestion [2][4] - The production capacity ramp-up and technological upgrades at self-owned factories contributed to a year-on-year increase in lithium compounds and derivatives production and sales [2][5] SQM Investment Impact - The tax dispute resolution with SQM has been confirmed for the 2024 fiscal year, with a positive impact on Tianqi's profits due to increased investment returns from SQM [2][6] Procurement and Pricing Strategy - The current procurement price for lithium ore from Talison is approximately 700 to 750 yuan, based on a weighted average of data from four pricing agencies [2][7] - Despite recent declines in lithium ore prices, Talison's cost advantages remain significant, with cash costs showing little change [2][8] Inventory and Sales Strategy - The average inventory cost has decreased to around 700 to 800 yuan, aligning with current market procurement prices [2][9] - The company employs a long-term sales strategy, maintaining good relationships with downstream customers and adjusting pricing based on market conditions [2][13][14] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The lithium industry is facing challenges due to lower prices, but domestic production remains stable, with Talison maintaining cost advantages [2][21] - The decline in lithium prices may accelerate market clearing, benefiting cost-advantaged companies [2][22] Future Production Expectations - Overall production is expected to increase steadily, with new projects anticipated to ramp up significantly by 2026 [2][18] - The first phase of the Kwinana project has seen some production improvements, but overall capacity utilization has not yet met expectations [2][19] Strategic Focus - The company continues to focus on strengthening upstream resources while maintaining a balanced approach across upstream, midstream, and downstream operations [2][31][33] - There is an emphasis on enhancing downstream strategies due to perceived weaknesses in that area over the past few years [2][33] Market Outlook - The company remains focused on long-term demand and industry growth, despite short-term price fluctuations influenced by external factors [2][34] - The company is prepared for potential futures trading but is waiting for favorable market conditions to proceed [2][24] Additional Notes - The company has no immediate plans for production maintenance during the Spring Festival, but regular safety inspections are conducted annually [2][35]

| 截至月份: | 2025年4月30日 | | | | | 狀態: | 新提交 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | 公司名稱: | 天齊鋰業股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年5月6日 | | | | | | | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 不適用 | | | | | | | | | 股份分類 1. | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 (註1) | | + | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09696 | 說明 | | | | | | | | 增加多櫃檯證券代號 | | | | | | | | | | 手動填寫 | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 164,122,200 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 164,122,200 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | 0 | | RMB | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in May is expected to be loose, and the inventory of ternary material factories has decreased compared to last week. The price of lithium carbonate futures and related lithium products has generally declined. The production and inventory of various lithium - related products in China are expected to change in May, and the price of lithium products is prone to decline. It is recommended to short on price rebounds, paying attention to the support level around 30,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 73,000 - 75,000 [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - On April 30, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared to the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of the active contract decreased, and the inventory remained unchanged. The price differences between different contracts and the basis also changed [1] - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide decreased compared to the previous day. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1] Company Announcements - On the evening of April 25, Bayi Space announced the termination of the "Annual Production of 3,000 Tons of Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Project", with approximately 450,100 yuan already invested [1] - Menglan Xinda stated on the interactive platform on August 30 that the first - phase project of the Malaysian non - ship project has been put into production, with a capacity ramp - up period of several months. The main production capacity in Malaysia will be for the overseas market, and the annual production capacity of suitable cylindrical lithium batteries is expected to exceed 47 million after completion [2] - Zhenhua New Materials announced the postponement of the formal material production line construction project (Yilong Phase III, originally planned to have a total investment of 6.245 billion yuan) [2] Industry News - The Zhangjiakou Nanshan Automobile Industrial Base in Hebei signed a contract with Sanwei (Shaanxi) Battery Technology Co., Ltd. for the Sanwei Solid - State Special Battery Production Base Project. The project will be implemented in two phases with a total investment of 1 billion yuan, and is expected to add an annual output value of 1 billion yuan after completion [3] - An Australian mining company is working on the Global Lithium project, optimizing project economics through mine planning and lithium recycling process improvement. The EU approved a 50 - million - euro subsidy for the Caorvec lithium project [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes 30,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of imported lithium concentrate. China's lithium carbonate production in May is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be loose [4] - The production of lithium hydroxide in China in May is expected to increase, and the inventory may change. The production of lithium iron phosphate in China in May is expected to increase, and the inventory of lithium iron phosphate factories has decreased compared to last week [4] - The production and import of cobalt sulfate in China may change, and the production of various battery materials such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate in China in May is expected to have different trends [5] Transaction Strategy - Due to the uncertainty in tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and China and the weak domestic lithium demand outlook, lithium product prices are prone to decline. It is recommended to short on price rebounds, paying attention to the support level around 30,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 73,000 - 75,000 [5]