Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [3] Core Views - The company is implementing a 1.4 million ton electrolytic aluminum energy efficiency improvement plan, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and long-term cost advantages [6] - The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.17, 1.37, and 1.58 yuan respectively, with a target price of 9.36 yuan based on an 8x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is forecasted to decline from 28,975 million yuan in 2023 to 28,089 million yuan in 2024, before increasing to 35,501 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 26.4% [2][8] - Operating profit is expected to rise significantly from 2,642 million yuan in 2023 to 5,219 million yuan in 2024, and further to 6,096 million yuan in 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 97.6% [2][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 2,205 million yuan in 2023 to 4,455 million yuan in 2024, and to 5,426 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 102.0% [2][8] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.1% in 2023 to 23.3% in 2024, and stabilize around 21.5% to 23.6% in the following years [2][8] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leading player in the electrolytic aluminum industry, benefiting from a significant reduction in energy costs due to falling coal prices [6] - The implementation of advanced energy-saving technologies in the production process is expected to further reduce production costs and enhance operational efficiency [6] - The company has demonstrated strong cash flow generation capabilities, which supports stable dividend distributions [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [3] Core Views - The company is implementing a 1.4 million ton electrolytic aluminum energy efficiency improvement plan, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and long-term cost advantages [6] - The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.17, 1.37, and 1.58 yuan respectively, with a target price of 9.36 yuan based on an 8x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is forecasted to decline from 28,975 million yuan in 2023 to 28,089 million yuan in 2024, before increasing to 35,501 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 26.4% [2][8] - Operating profit is expected to rise significantly from 2,642 million yuan in 2023 to 5,219 million yuan in 2024, and further to 6,096 million yuan in 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 97.6% [2][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 2,205 million yuan in 2023 to 4,455 million yuan in 2024, and to 5,426 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 102.0% [2][8] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.1% in 2023 to 23.3% in 2024, and stabilize around 21.5% to 23.6% in the following years [2][8] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leading player in the electrolytic aluminum industry, benefiting from a significant reduction in energy costs due to falling coal prices [6] - The implementation of advanced energy-saving technologies in the production process is expected to further reduce production costs and enhance operational efficiency [6] - The company has demonstrated strong cash flow generation capabilities, which supports stable dividend distributions [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [3] Core Views - The company is implementing a 1.4 million ton electrolytic aluminum energy efficiency improvement plan, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and long-term cost advantages [6] - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027, predicting EPS of 1.17, 1.37, and 1.58 yuan respectively, with a target price of 9.36 yuan based on an 8x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 35,501 million yuan, 40,269 million yuan, and 42,569 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 26.4%, 13.4%, and 5.7% respectively [2] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 6,096 million yuan in 2025 to 8,250 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 16.8%, 17.6%, and 15.1% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 5,426 million yuan in 2025 to 7,343 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 21.8%, 17.6%, and 15.1% [2] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 21.5% in 2025, increasing to 23.6% by 2027 [2] - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 15.3% to 17.2% from 2025 to 2027 [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 18.6% in 2025 to 19.0% in 2027 [2] Market Performance - As of June 9, 2025, the stock price was 8.06 yuan, with a 52-week high of 9.64 yuan and a low of 5.8 yuan [3] - The company has shown a relative performance of 3.37% over the past week and 10.47% over the past month [4]

公司报告 | 公司点评 天山铝业（002532） 证券研究报告 20 万吨电解铝富余指标拟开始建设，达产后产量增量 21% 事件：6 月 6 日公司发布公告，拟对公司 140 万吨电解铝产能进行绿色低 碳能效提升改造。项目完工后，公司电解铝产量将提升至 140 万吨/年左右， 铝液综合交流电耗将达到行业领先水平。 项目概况：1）建设期：暂定 10 个月，按照目前时间点推算，项目将于 26 年 4 月投产/达产；2）项目投资：约 22.31 亿元；3）场地：石河子厂区东 侧预留场地；4）技术路线：本项目采用全石墨化阴极炭块和新式节能阴 极结构技术，具有内衬寿命高、电阻率低、钠膨胀率低、抗热冲击性好、 电阻率低、运行稳定性和电流效率高等诸多优点；5）项目进度：项目已 获得相关政府部门的备案及批复，议案已获得公司董事会审议通过。 电解铝产能 120 万吨→140 万吨，达产后产量增量 21% 公司拥有 140 万吨电解铝产能指标，目前已建成 120 万吨电解铝产能， 实际年产量约 116 万吨左右（25 年经营计划原铝产量 116 万吨），尚余 24 万吨产能待建，预计该项目建成后形成 24 万吨产量净增量，增幅 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" with a target price reflecting a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [2][16]. Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum plans to enhance its 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity through a green low-carbon efficiency upgrade, which is expected to increase production capacity by 21% to approximately 1.4 million tons per year after completion [1][2]. - The project, with an investment of approximately 2.231 billion yuan, is set to be completed in about 10 months, targeting production by April 2026 [1][2]. - The company anticipates a favorable supply-demand situation for electrolytic aluminum, with cost reduction potential due to its integrated layout, which is expected to enhance performance in the coming years [2]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity and Technology - Current electrolytic aluminum capacity stands at 1.2 million tons, with an actual annual output of about 1.16 million tons. The planned upgrade will add 240,000 tons of net capacity, representing a 21% increase [2]. - The project will utilize advanced energy-saving technologies, achieving industry-leading levels of power consumption [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 show a decline in 2023, followed by a recovery with expected growth rates of 10.30% in 2026 and 7.45% in 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 2.21 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.47 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 17.00 to 5.79 over the same period [4][5]. Market Position and Valuation - The current market capitalization of Tianshan Aluminum is approximately 33.29 billion yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.56 and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.29 [5]. - The company is positioned within the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically focusing on industrial metals [2].

Group 1 - The global aluminum profile industry has evolved from initial industrial applications to multiple high-tech and traditional fields [1] - Guinea holds the largest aluminum ore reserves globally, accounting for 25.52% of total reserves [2] - Guinea, Australia, and China each contribute over 20% to global aluminum ore production, with respective shares of 28.99%, 22.22%, and 20.67% [5] Group 2 - The total global aluminum profile production is projected to be approximately 39.18 million tons in 2024, with China accounting for 50%-55% of this total [7] - There is an increasing demand for lightweight aluminum profiles, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors, driven by technological innovations and the rapid development of industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [4][6]. Core Views - The company plans to enhance its electrolytic aluminum production capacity by 200,000 tons through a green low-carbon efficiency improvement project, with an investment of approximately 2.23 billion yuan [1][2]. - The project aims to reduce energy costs significantly by adopting advanced energy-saving technologies, leading to industry-leading power consumption levels for aluminum production [2][3]. - The company's integrated layout is expected to stabilize performance, with self-sufficiency in prebaked anodes and alumina, and a strategic expansion into Indonesia and Guinea for resource supply [3][4]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity and Cost Efficiency - The electrolytic aluminum capacity will increase to 1.4 million tons, with a significant release of new capacity expected in 2026 [2]. - The project will utilize advanced technologies that enhance the lifespan and efficiency of production, resulting in lower electricity costs [2][3]. Strategic Layout and Resource Supply - The company has achieved 100% self-sufficiency in alumina and prebaked anodes, with ongoing projects in Guangxi and Xinjiang [3]. - A strategic investment of $1.556 billion is planned for a 2 million-ton alumina production line in Indonesia, with the first phase already approved [3]. - The acquisition of a 50% stake in a Guinea-based mining project will further secure raw material supply, with a planned annual capacity of 5-6 million tons of bauxite [3]. Financial Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.126 billion yuan, 6.207 billion yuan, and 7.008 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 7, 6, and 5 [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 28.089 billion yuan in 2024 to 35.569 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][10].

Group 1 - The company held its 15th meeting of the 6th Board of Directors on June 6, 2025, in Shanghai, with all 5 directors present, ensuring compliance with legal and regulatory requirements [1] - The board approved a proposal to enhance the green low-carbon energy efficiency of the company's 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity using advanced domestic energy-saving technology [2] - The project will utilize fully graphitized cathode carbon blocks and new energy-saving cathode structure technology, leading to improved operational stability and current efficiency [2] Group 2 - Upon completion, the company's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to reach approximately 1.4 million tons per year, with electricity consumption for aluminum liquid expected to achieve industry-leading levels [2] - The construction period for the project is tentatively set at 10 months, with an estimated investment amount [2] - The proposal has been reviewed and approved by the Board's Strategy and Sustainable Development Committee [2]

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-035 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 第六届董事会第十五次会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 为符合国家节能低碳政策要求，同意公司利用石河子厂区东侧预留场地，采 用国内先进的电解铝节能技术，对公司 140 万吨电解铝产能进行绿色低碳能效提 升改造。本项目采用全石墨化阴极炭块和新式节能阴极结构技术，具有内衬寿命 高、电阻率低、钠膨胀率低、抗热冲击性好、电阻率低、运行稳定性和电流效率 高等诸多优点。项目完工后，公司电解铝产量将提升至 140 万吨/年左右，铝液 综合交流电耗将达到行业领先水平。本项目建设期暂定 10 个月，建设投资约 223,089.7 万元。该项目技术成熟，社会、经济效益良好，符合国家的产业政策 和循环经济要求，并已获得相关政府部门的备案及批复。 本议案已经董事会战略与可持续发展委员会审议通过。 三、备查文件 1、第六届董事会第十五次会议决议； 2、第六届董事会战略与可持续发展委员会第四次会议决议。 1 / 2 一、董事会会议召开情况 天山铝业集团股份有限公司（ ...