Group 1 - The agricultural chemical sector increased by 3.59% compared to the previous trading day, with Dongfang Tower leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3870.28, up 1.19%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13224.51, up 2.4% [1] - A table detailing the individual stock performance within the agricultural chemical sector is provided [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds into the agricultural chemical sector was 66.71 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 15.7 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 223 million yuan [2] - A table showing the fund flow for individual stocks in the agricultural chemical sector is included [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The U.S. announced the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers, aiming for normalization of relations with Minsk, which may have limited direct impact on global potash supply-demand balance [2][6] - Potash demand remains strong while supply growth is limited, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [2][12] - Key companies to watch in the potash sector include Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, Oriental Tower, and Zangge Mining [2] Summary by Sections Event Description - On December 13, 2025, U.S. Special Envoy John Coale met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, announcing the lifting of sanctions on potash fertilizers [6] Market Dynamics - The price of cyclical products is primarily determined by supply and demand rather than costs. The lifting of sanctions by the U.S. is not expected to significantly alter the global potash supply-demand balance but may reduce Belarusian potash costs [12] - Belarus is the third-largest potash producer globally, with a market share of approximately 16%. Sanctions in 2022 led to a significant reduction in supply and a surge in global potash prices [12] Supply Recovery - Belarusian potash production, which fell to 5.408 million tons in 2022 due to sanctions, has been recovering, reaching 11.559 million tons in 2024, close to its historical peak of 13 million tons in 2021 [12] - The lifting of U.S. sanctions is expected to have a limited overall impact, as Belarusian potash costs remain high due to ongoing EU and Lithuanian sanctions [12] Demand Outlook - The demand for potash is expected to remain robust, driven by high prices of phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, with potash prices being competitive [12] - In the first half of 2025, potash exports from Canada, Russia, and Belarus increased by 26%, 5%, and 18% respectively, indicating strong demand [12] Capital Expenditure and Supply Constraints - The potash industry has seen limited capital expenditure due to prolonged periods of low prices, leading to constrained future supply growth [12] - The cyclical nature of the industry means that prices are more influenced by supply-demand dynamics than by production costs [12]

Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [4] Core Insights - The potassium fertilizer market is expected to remain tight globally, with a focus on the growth potential of companies seeking overseas potassium resources [2] - The organic silicon industry is entering a new price increase cycle, supported by collaborative production cuts among manufacturers [3] Summary by Sections 1. Key Insights of the Week - The potassium fertilizer contract price for 2026 has been set at $348 per ton, indicating a slight increase from the previous year, reflecting a tight supply-demand situation [2] - The organic silicon intermediate price has risen to 13,700 yuan per ton, an increase of 2,600 yuan per ton since the implementation of the joint price support plan [3] 2. Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.1% in the past week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [22] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the chemical sector, 159 stocks rose while 262 fell, with notable gainers including Longgao Co. (+23.3%) and Shuangxing New Materials (+21.8%) [29] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - Jiangnan Chemical plans to acquire 100% of Xi'an Qinghua Civil Explosive Materials Co. for 645 million yuan [32]

Market Overview - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a decline of 0.82% on December 2, with Dongfang Tower leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.71, down 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13056.7, down 0.68% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the agricultural chemical sector included: - Stanley (002588) with a closing price of 9.61, up 1.69% [1] - Hualu Hengsheng (600426) at 28.66, up 1.31% [1] - New Agricultural Holdings (002942) at 20.86, up 1.26% [1] - Conversely, significant decliners included: - Dongfang Tower (002545) at 17.22, down 2.77% [2] - Hongda Co. (600331) at 10.86, down 2.69% [2] - Bluefeng Biochemical (002513) at 7.38, down 2.64% [2] Capital Flow - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 482 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 301 million yuan [2] - The sector's capital flow indicated that: - Hualu Hengsheng (600426) had a net inflow of 19.58 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Dongfang Tower (002545) experienced a significant net outflow of 208 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The current A-share bull market is part of a six-year global liquidity expansion driven by post-2020 monetary easing, with systemic revaluation of key assets such as gold, US tech stocks, and European/Japanese manufacturing [1][11] - The return of cross-border capital to China is expected to systematically reassess the competitive advantages of Chinese manufacturing, particularly in sectors like new energy, chemicals, and medical devices [2][12] - The A-share market is likely to experience volatility in 2026, with either a stagnation of the bull market or a "Davis Double Play" in consumer sectors, as external exports may not drive profits due to high base effects [3][13] Group 2 - The industrialization maturity phase in China has led to a bull market for core assets, driven by improved domestic consumption and the ability of manufacturing to generate national wealth through exports [4][14] - The recommendation for industry allocation focuses on a combination of "existing," "new," and "high" sectors, emphasizing non-ferrous metals, new consumption trends, and high-end manufacturing [5][14] Group 3 - The investment logic for China Hongqiao includes short-term price increases in electrolytic aluminum and long-term growth driven by integrated operations and high dividends [17][19] - For Luoyang Molybdenum, the investment rationale is based on the rising copper cycle and diversified product offerings, with a focus on sustainable growth [20][22] - Huafeng Aluminum is positioned for growth through high-end aluminum processing and international expansion, capitalizing on trends in the automotive sector [25][28] Group 4 - Nanjing Steel's strategy involves creating a fully integrated supply chain and exploring new growth points to stabilize returns on equity [29][32] - Dongfang Tower's investment logic is driven by rising prices of potassium chloride and phosphate rock, with ongoing capacity expansion [33][36] - Luxshare Precision is transitioning to an AI hardware manufacturer, benefiting from increased demand for computing power and AI models [37][40] Group 5 - Great Wall Motors is focusing on high-end SUVs and global expansion, with new model launches expected to drive sales [41][44] - Leap Motor is leveraging competitive pricing and differentiation in the domestic and overseas markets, with new models and subsidies supporting growth [45][48] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical is advancing its clinical pipeline with over 100 innovative products, aiming for significant growth through international collaborations and new product approvals [49][51] Group 6 - Yifeng Pharmacy is expected to improve its market share through enhanced operational efficiency and strategic store adjustments [54][59] - Dongfang Electric is positioned to benefit from rising global demand for gas turbines, driven by AI-related power needs [60][63]

Market Overview - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a decline of 1.02% on November 24, with Lanfeng Biochemical leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08, up 0.37% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the agricultural chemical sector included: - Dongfang Iron Tower (002545) with a closing price of 16.42, up 5.87% [1] - Bai'ao Chemical (603360) at 31.83, up 3.34% [1] - Nongxin Technology (001231) at 22.17, up 3.16% [1] - Conversely, significant decliners included: - Lanfeng Biochemical (002513) at 7.47, down 7.20% [2] - Chengxing Co. (600078) at 10.71, down 6.22% [2] - Hongda Co. (600331) at 10.57, down 4.34% [2] Capital Flow - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 738 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 458 million yuan [2][3] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Yuntianhua (600096) with a net inflow of 97.36 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Bai'ao Chemical (603360) with a net outflow of 20.47 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Dongfang Iron Tower (002545) with a net inflow of 45.54 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Oriental Tower's stock price dropped by 5.08% to 15.70 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.57 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.86%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 19.532 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Qingdao Oriental Tower Co., Ltd. was established on August 1, 1996, and listed on February 11, 2011. The company is located at 318 Guangzhou North Road, Jiaozhou, Qingdao, Shandong Province [1] - The main business involves the research, design, production, sales, and installation of steel structures (power plant steel structures, petrochemical steel structures, civil building steel structures) and tower products (transmission line towers, broadcast and television towers, communication towers) [1] - The revenue composition is as follows: potassium chloride 65.07%, angle steel towers 16.09%, steel structures 11.72%, steel pipe towers 4.63%, sodium bromide 1.73%, others 0.52%, construction installation 0.14%, and power generation 0.10% [1] Shareholder Information - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Oriental Tower, one fund from GF Fund ranks as a significant holder. The GF Value Core Mixed A Fund (010377) entered the top ten circulating shareholders in the third quarter, holding 22.3743 million shares, accounting for 1.98% of circulating shares [2] - The estimated floating loss for the fund today is approximately 18.7944 million CNY [2] Fund Performance - The GF Value Core Mixed A Fund (010377) has a current size of 4.09 billion CNY and has achieved a return of 56.48% year-to-date, ranking 483 out of 8136 in its category. Over the past year, it has returned 50.89%, ranking 570 out of 8056 [2] - The fund manager, Wu Yuanyi, has been in position for 5 years and 54 days, with a total fund asset size of 23.297 billion CNY. The best fund return during his tenure is 141.24%, while the worst is -19.12% [2]

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to monitor market trends and identify investment hotspots. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, which have been proven effective in previous studies. It calculates the distance between the latest closing price and the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days using the formula: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of pullback [11][19][27] - The model is evaluated positively for its ability to track market trends and identify leading stocks that are consistently reaching new highs. It is inspired by methodologies from notable researchers and practitioners such as George (2004), William O'Neil, and Mark Minervini, who emphasize the importance of monitoring stocks near their 52-week highs [11][18][19] - The report also introduces a screening method for "stable new high stocks," focusing on stocks with smooth price paths and consistent momentum. The screening criteria include analyst attention (at least five buy or overweight ratings in the past three months), relative price strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price path smoothness (measured by price displacement ratio), and trend continuation (average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past five days). Stocks meeting these criteria are ranked, and the top 50% are selected [25][27][28] - The backtesting results show that 1080 stocks reached 250-day new highs in the past 20 trading days. Among them, the highest numbers are in the basic chemicals, machinery, and electric power equipment & new energy sectors. The highest proportions are in coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals sectors. Additionally, 39 stocks were identified as "stable new high stocks," with the majority belonging to cyclical and manufacturing sectors [19][20][28] - Key metrics for indices include the 250-day new high distance for major indices as of November 14, 2025: Shanghai Composite Index (0.97%), Shenzhen Component Index (3.71%), CSI 300 (2.52%), CSI 500 (4.15%), CSI 1000 (1.90%), CSI 2000 (0.66%), ChiNext Index (6.40%), and STAR 50 Index (11.56%) [12][13][32] - Key metrics for industries include the 250-day new high distance for sectors such as textiles & apparel (0.00%), light manufacturing (0.08%), comprehensive (0.06%), transportation (0.14%), and steel (0.36%) [13][15][32] - Key metrics for concepts include the 250-day new high distance for HJT batteries, home furnishings, forestry, equal-weight micro-cap stocks, energy storage, oil & gas, and lithium mining concepts, which are relatively close to their 250-day highs [15][17][32]

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4][26] - As of November 14, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index at 0.97%, Shenzhen Component Index at 3.71%, CSI 300 at 2.52%, and others [6][26] - Among the CITIC first-level industry indices, textiles and apparel, light industry manufacturing, comprehensive, transportation, and steel industries are closest to their 250-day new highs, while food and beverage, comprehensive finance, defense, automotive, and computer industries are further away [9][26] Group 2 - A total of 1,080 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest number in the basic chemical, machinery, and electric power equipment and new energy sectors [2][14][26] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the coal, steel, and non-ferrous metal industries, with respective proportions of 50.00%, 39.62%, and 37.90% [14][26] - By sector distribution, the cyclical and manufacturing sectors had the most new high stocks, with 358 and 304 stocks respectively [17][26] Group 3 - The report identifies 39 stocks that have shown stable new highs, with the majority coming from the cyclical and manufacturing sectors, specifically in basic chemicals and machinery [19][22][27] - The selection criteria for stable new high stocks include analyst attention, relative strength of stock prices, price path smoothness, and continuity of new highs [21][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking leading stocks that consistently reach new highs as indicators of market and industry trends [13][27]