证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 03 日 猪肉夏粮收获三成，猪价震荡运行 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 18 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：据农业农村部，截至 5 月 30 日 17 时，全国已收 获夏粮小麦面积1.29亿亩，收获进度已过三成。湖北、四川及 华南地区麦收圆满收官，安徽过八成，河南过六成，陕西过两 成，江苏近一成半。5 月 30 日开始大范围降雨，本轮降雨有利 于土壤墒情改善，为机播创造良好条件，同时，各地加快抢收 进度，为腾茬机播争取了时间、赢得了主动。下一步，农业农 村部将密切跟踪天气变化，组织有关省份认真抓好麦收工作和 应急抢收抢烘准备，加快推进成熟小麦收晒，切实准备应对天 气变化，努力保障夏粮适收快收、颗粒归仓。同时强化收种衔 接，认真落实机械化措施促进大面积单产提升工作，努力提高 机械化播栽质量效率，为全年粮食丰产丰收打好基础。在粮食 安全背景下，转基因技术在提升单产方面具有革命性作用，我 们判断转基因商业化进程将继续扩面提速，以通过提升单产从 根本上提升关键品种自给率，同时，农业农村部强调 ...

长江电力 东方财富 02)中国核电 1951.90亿市值 7330.68亿市值 3284.08亿市值 15.40亿成交额 4.28亿成交额 23.58亿成交额 20.78 29.96 9.49 -0.24(-0.79%) -0.09(-0.94%) +0.16(+0.78%) 食品饮料 证券 中信证券 国泰海通 海天味业 ■双 3808.88亿市值 3169.82亿市值 2455.01亿市值 9.24亿成交额 19.31亿成交额 3.88亿成交额 25.70 17.98 44.15 +0.18(+0.71%) +0.80(+4.66%) -0.27(-0.61%) 消费电子 化学制药 恒瑞医药 立讯精密 工业富联 3747.37亿市值 2201.05亿市值 3663.63亿市值 5.37亿成交额 11.33亿成交额 15.91亿成交额 55.48 30.37 18.87 -0.06(-0.32%) -0.03(-0.10%) +0.74(+1.35%) 家电行业 农牧饲渔 牧原股份 格力电器 海尔智家 油气长官 2525.11亿市值 2326.02亿市值 2241.92亿市值 23.68亿成交额 5.79亿成 ...

市场数据显示，节前猪价震荡上涨。上周养殖主体对于低价抵触情绪增强，阶段性主动缩量出栏以对抗 市场压力，叠加多地端午备货开启，屠企增量意愿增强，支撑猪价上涨。 截至2025年6月3日 10:38，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)强势上涨1.02%，成分股湘佳股份(002982)上涨 8.30%，海大集团(002311)上涨2.89%，神农集团(605296)上涨2.75%，星湖科技(600866)，蔚蓝生物 (603739)等个股跟涨。 畜牧ETF(159867)上涨0.49%， 冲击3连涨。 畜牧ETF紧密跟踪中证畜牧养殖指数，中证畜牧养殖指数选取涉及畜禽饲料、畜禽药物以及畜禽养殖等 业务的上市公司证券作为样本，以反映畜牧养殖相关上市公司的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年5月30日，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)前十大权重股分别为海大集团(002311)、牧 原股份(002714)、温氏股份(300498)、新希望(000876)、梅花生物(600873)、大北农(002385)、圣农发展 (002299)、生物股份(600201)、天康生物(002100)、唐人神(002567)，前十大权重股合计占比 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 22 周周报：猪价中枢持续回落，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1、生猪板块：猪价中枢持续回落，主动&被动因素加大去化概率，重视生猪板块预期差！1）本周猪价&仔 猪价格偏弱。本周全国生猪均价 14.41 元/kg，环比下跌 0.69%（涌益），周度均价创年内新低，行业自繁自养 盈利约 129 元/头，环比-13 元/头；本周 7kg 仔猪和 50kg 二元母猪价格为 501 元/头和 1628 元/头，环比继 续偏弱。供应端，本周出栏均重为 129.18kg（环比-0.15%），150kg 以上生猪出栏占比为 4.92%（环比-0.06pct）， 小部分区域猪病增加，或加快行业出栏进度；需求端，本周消费端受端午备货支撑，终端消费表现回暖，带 动屠企宰杀意愿增强，本周日度屠宰样本日均宰杀量环比+1.99%。端午备货过后，消费或有降级，叠加气温 升高，猪肉进入年内季节性消费疲软期，且近期肥标价差倒挂加速前期大猪出栏，猪价或呈季节性走弱趋势， 行业或再度进入亏损状态。且南方雨季或带动猪病有所反复（历年 6-7 月份 90 kg 以下生猪出栏占比提升）， 或加 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 02 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《二育认价销售致供给增加，期待端 午备货对需求端形成支撑—行业周 报》-2025.5.25 《4 月肉鸡价格维持高位，关注季节 性鸡病催化价格—行业点评报告》- 2025.5.20 《618 规则趋向简单直观，或利好具 备丰富爆品的宠物品牌—行业周报》 -2025.5.18 政策因素或引发猪价波动，头部宠物食品品牌持续 发力 618 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 周观察：政策因素或引发猪价波动，头部宠物食品品牌持续发力 61 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 02 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《二育认价销售致供给增加，期待端 午备货对需求端形成支撑—行业周 报》-2025.5.25 《4 月肉鸡价格维持高位，关注季节 性鸡病催化价格—行业点评报告》- 2025.5.20 《618 规则趋向简单直观，或利好具 备丰富爆品的宠物品牌—行业周报》 -2025.5.18 政策因素或引发猪价波动，头部宠物食品品牌持续 发力 618 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 周观察：政策因素或引发猪价波动，头部宠物食品品牌持续发力 61 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - YiFan Pharmaceutical's net profit for 2024 is projected at 386 million, with a growth rate of 170%[1] - Qingdao Beer expects a revenue increase from 4,345 million in 2024 to 5,315 million in 2026, reflecting a 22% growth[1] - MuYuan's net profit is forecasted to reach 17,881 million in 2024, showing a staggering growth of 519%[1] Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The pharmaceutical sector is shifting towards low-valuation companies with strong product pipelines, as seen with YiFan Pharmaceutical's global product launch[1] - The demand for AI-related DDR5 inductors is expected to surge, benefiting companies like ShunLuo Electronics[1] - The potassium fertilizer industry is experiencing a recovery, with YaK International's production and sales expanding significantly[1] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - YiFan Pharmaceutical faces risks related to regulatory approvals and sales performance not meeting expectations[1] - Qingdao Beer may encounter challenges from competition and regional demand fluctuations[1] - MuYuan's profitability could be impacted by unexpected declines in pork prices and disease outbreaks[1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in stock prices of pig farming companies in A-shares and H-shares, particularly Decon Agriculture (02419.HK), which saw a year-to-date increase of 162%, highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the sector, especially as major players like Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) plan to list in Hong Kong [1][6][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Decon Agriculture's stock price increased by over 15% in a single day, with a current valuation of approximately 6.3 times earnings for 2024, significantly lower than leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff (300498.SZ), which have P/E ratios above 12 [1][6]. - The number of H-share pig farming companies is limited, with Decon Agriculture being one of the few comparable firms, suggesting that the market may reference its valuation when pricing Muyuan Foods' H-share [1][2]. Group 2: Competitive Position - Decon Agriculture is projected to have a pig output of 8.78 million heads in 2024, second only to industry leaders like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff, indicating a strong competitive position [3]. - The company has achieved significant cost advantages, with its breeding program reportedly reducing costs to below 13 yuan per kilogram, placing it among the industry's top tier [3][4]. Group 3: Valuation Trends - Despite a strong operational performance, Decon Agriculture faced low market valuations since its listing in December 2023, with a P/E ratio dropping to around 3 times before recovering to 6.3 times following recent stock price increases [6][7]. - In contrast, other H-share companies like COFCO Joycome (01618.HK) have not experienced similar market performance, with a modest year-to-date increase of only 7% [7]. Group 4: Muyuan Foods' Strategy - Muyuan Foods is pursuing an H-share listing to enhance its international capital presence, aiming to attract long-term investors and improve its corporate governance [1][9]. - The company plans to use the funds raised from the H-share listing for global expansion, R&D investments, and working capital, which could help reduce its debt levels [11]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The domestic pig farming industry is expected to see a tightening supply as the number of breeding sows peaks and begins to decline, potentially leading to improved pricing conditions in the second half of the year [12]. - If pig prices rebound, it could provide additional support for the valuation of Muyuan Foods' H-shares [12].

01 本周上市企业： 吉宏股份成功登陆港交所主板 "A+H"双融资平台构建完成 北京时间5月27日，来自福建厦门的跨境社交电商及纸制快消品包装方案提供商——吉宏股份，成功在港交所主板挂牌上市。该公司成立于2003年，以技 术、创新及数字化赋能为基础，其作为一家领先双轮驱动企业，推动跨境社交电商业务及纸制快消品包装解决方案业务。此次IPO，吉宏股份共发行6791 万股股份，总募集资金约5.22亿港元。截至定稿，该公司市值为44亿港元。中金公司、招银国际为其联席保荐人。 生物技术公司派格生物 正式在港交所主板挂牌上市 北京时间5月27日，来自苏州的生物技术公司——派格生物，正式在港交所主板挂牌上市。该公司成立于2008年，是一家专注于自主研究及开发慢性病创 新疗法的生物技术公司，重点关注代谢紊乱领域。此次IPO，派格生物共发行1918.35万股股份，总募集资金约3.01亿港元。截至定稿，该公司市值为39.91 亿港元。中金公司为其独家保荐人。 线上保险中介服务提供商手回科技 正式在港交所主板挂牌上市 北京时间5月30日，来自深圳的线上保险中介服务提供商——手回科技，正式在港交所主板挂牌上市。该公司致力于通过以保险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Muyuan Foods is pursuing a listing in Hong Kong to raise funds for expanding its overseas business, aiming to mitigate the impacts of the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry [3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Muyuan Foods, a leading player in the pig farming industry, has a market capitalization of 220.914 billion RMB and has been listed in A-shares for 11 years [4]. - The company’s performance is closely tied to the fluctuations in pork prices, with significant revenue and profit changes corresponding to these price movements [5][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of 137.947 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 17.881 billion RMB, reflecting a staggering growth of 519.42% compared to the previous year [7]. - The company’s net profit has seen significant volatility, dropping from 27.451 billion RMB in 2020 to a loss of 4.263 billion RMB in 2023, before rebounding in 2024 [7][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The pig farming industry is characterized by cyclical trends influenced by supply-demand dynamics, disease risks, and policy regulations, making it challenging for companies to predict and manage profitability [8][9]. - The recent downturn in pork prices, which fell to 24.32 RMB per kilogram in 2023 from 50.09 RMB per kilogram in 2019, has prompted Muyuan Foods to seek international expansion as a new growth avenue [5][8]. Group 4: Debt and Liquidity - As of April 30, the company had short-term borrowings of 49.08 billion RMB and non-current liabilities due within a year of 10.178 billion RMB, with cash reserves of 22.029 billion RMB [10][11]. - The company’s debt levels have increased significantly, with short-term debt rising from 5.566 billion RMB in 2019 to 59.258 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a growing financial burden [11][12]. Group 5: Strategic Initiatives - Muyuan Foods is establishing a subsidiary in Vietnam to tap into the Southeast Asian market, focusing on the urgent needs for disease prevention and farm upgrades in the region [9][10]. - The company aims to enhance its overseas supply chain and build international industry centers with the funds raised from the Hong Kong listing [4][10].