Economic Data - China's January Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.1, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [3] - Eurozone's January Manufacturing PMI final value is reported at 49.4, showing continued contraction [3] - The US ISM Manufacturing Index for January is anticipated to rise to 48.3 from 47.9, suggesting a potential stabilization in manufacturing [3] Central Bank Decisions - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its policy rate to 3.85% from 3.6% [4] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are both expected to maintain their current interest rates during their upcoming meetings [9] Major Corporate Earnings - Key earnings reports are expected from major companies including Disney, Pepsi, Merck, and Pfizer, with a focus on their performance in the current economic climate [4][26] - Tech giants like Google and Amazon will report on their cloud business growth, which is critical for assessing AI monetization capabilities [6][26] Geopolitical Events - Ongoing tensions in Iran are highlighted, with the US increasing military presence in the region, which may impact global markets [12] - Japan and Thailand are set to hold significant elections on February 8, which could influence regional political stability [15][17] IPOs and Market Movements - Muyuan Foods is set to launch its IPO in Hong Kong, potentially raising up to 14 billion HKD (approximately 1.8 billion USD) [28] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limits and margin requirements for silver futures, reflecting a tightening in trading conditions [11] Commodity Market Changes - CME has raised the margin requirements for gold from 6% to 8% and for silver from 11% to 15%, indicating a move to reduce leverage in the precious metals market [10] - The Chinese government has implemented a temporary 5% import tax on whiskey starting February 2 [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Insights - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with meat cattle and raw milk prices anticipated to rise due to domestic and international market conditions [3]. - The pig farming sector is supported by capacity control measures, which are likely to enhance cash flow for leading companies, positioning them as attractive investment opportunities [3]. - Poultry supply is expected to stabilize, with leading companies benefiting from demand recovery and higher cash flow returns [3]. - The feed industry is set to gain from deeper industrialization and clear division of labor, allowing leading companies to expand their competitive advantages [3]. - The pet industry is identified as a growth sector benefiting from demographic trends [3]. Summary by Sections Swine - As of January 23, 2026, the price of live pigs is 12.87 CNY/kg, up 1.42% week-on-week, while the price of 7kg piglets is approximately 343.33 CNY/head, up 11.09% week-on-week [1][13]. - The industry is witnessing a controlled reduction in production capacity, which is expected to support profitability for low-cost producers [13]. Poultry - The price of chicken seedlings is 1.63 CNY/bird, down 31.80% week-on-week, while the price of broilers is 7.34 CNY/kg, down 1.08% week-on-week [1][14]. - Supply is slightly increasing, and there is a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [3]. Beef - The price of fattened cattle is 25.66 CNY/kg, up 0.59% week-on-week, and the beef market price is 61.55 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week [2][14]. - A new round of price increases for beef is anticipated, indicating a potential upward trend in the beef cycle [2]. Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk is 3.03 CNY/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week, with expectations for a price turning point in 2026 [2][14]. - The reduction in dairy cow numbers is likely to continue, impacting supply dynamics [2]. Feed - The domestic soybean spot price is 4072 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week, while the soybean meal price is 3186 CNY/ton, up 0.31% week-on-week [2][14]. - The feed industry is expected to strengthen due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [2]. Corn - The domestic corn spot price is 2331 CNY/ton, up 0.30% week-on-week, with a tightening supply-demand balance expected to support moderate price increases [2][14]. Rubber - The price of natural rubber is 15900 CNY/ton, up 1.92% week-on-week, with a positive outlook for the mid-term market [2][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The price of piglets follows a clear historical pattern, with expectations for continued price increases followed by a decline around May/June. A significant capacity reduction cycle is anticipated in 2026, primarily occurring in the second half of the year, while stock prices are expected to start rising in the first half [5][6] - The report emphasizes that piglet prices are influenced by production patterns, with December and January being peak slaughter months, leading to increased demand for piglets. Conversely, supply remains relatively stable, which can lead to price increases when demand surges [7] - The report highlights that piglet prices do not correlate with pig price expectations and cannot be used to predict pig prices. The annual variations in piglet prices are consistent, while pig prices fluctuate yearly, indicating a lack of direct relationship [7] - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, predicting a significant capacity reduction cycle in 2026. It suggests that the first half of 2026 will resemble the first half of 2023, with losses in fat pigs but profits in piglets, leading to a smoother capacity reduction after the anticipated price drop in May/June [7] - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Biological, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at the bottom, with potential for stock price increases as the industry faces losses and clearer capacity reduction trends [7][8] Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Piglet prices exhibit a clear historical trend, typically bottoming out in December/January and peaking in May/June. The fluctuations are tied to seasonal production patterns and demand cycles [5][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the relationship between supply and demand, noting that while supply is stable, demand spikes during certain months can lead to price increases. The cyclical nature of pig farming is highlighted, with adjustments made to align production with demand [7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a significant capacity reduction cycle in the pig farming industry for 2026, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and current low valuations, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated market changes [7][8]

牧原股份（002714）近日发布的2025年度业绩预告显示，公司预计全年实现净利润147亿元-157亿元， 比上年同期下降12.20%-17.79%，预计归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益后的净利润151亿元-161亿 元。牧原股份（002714）在公告中表示，2025年受生猪市场行情波动影响，全年商品猪销售均价约13.5 元/公斤，同比下降约17.3%，使得公司整体盈利水平较上年同期有所下滑。 1月29日，河南养殖龙头牧原食品股份有限公司(下称"牧原股份（002714）"，002714.SZ)启动H股招 股。本次牧原股份（002714）H股全球发售由摩根士丹利（MS）亚洲、中信证券（600030）(香港)及高 盛（GS）(亚洲)担任联席保荐人。 根据本次H股全球发售方案，牧原股份（002714）拟发售H股总数达2.74亿股，其中香港公开发售占比 10%，共2739.52万股；国际发售占比90%，共2.47亿股。同时，牧原股份（002714）授予国际包销商 15%的超额配股权，可额外配发最多4109.27万股H股，用以补足市场超额分配需求。 香港公开发售于1月29日上午9时正式开启，认购期至2月3日中午12时 ...

本报记者 桂小笋 同花顺数据显示，截至1月30日，A股共有34家农业公司发布了2025年度业绩预告。具体来看，这34家 公司里，养殖企业牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"牧原股份"）和温氏食品集团股份有限公司（以下 简称"温氏股份"）2025年预计净利润位居前列。 王红焱分析称，此次出现"旺季不旺"是"供需失衡+需求疲软+周期错配"多重因素叠加的结果。"供应 端，能繁母猪存栏处于高位；需求端，虽然猪肉屠宰量同比微增，但禽肉等替代品类的价格优势分流了 部分猪肉需求；此外，2026年春节备货周期有所推迟。" 卓创资讯生猪分析师孙魏杰告诉《证券日报》记者，从监测信息来看，多数从业者普遍预期2026年下半 年生猪价格将止跌反弹。需要关注的是，母猪生产效率的提升可能会明显制约2026年下半年的生猪价格 涨幅，而从业者的一致性预期可能导致补栏行为的前置，从而影响生猪价格提前上涨。综合来看，预计 2026年第二季度生猪价格有可能止跌反弹，但总体反弹幅度有限。 温氏股份发布的公告显示，2025年，预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为50亿元至55亿元，同比下 降40.73%至46.12%。公告从两方面解读了业绩变动的原因：首先 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. has launched its H-share IPO, aiming to raise funds amid a challenging market environment for the pig farming industry [1] - Muyuan Foods plans to issue a total of 274 million H-shares, with 10% allocated for public offering in Hong Kong and 90% for international placement [1] - The IPO price is set at a maximum of 39 HKD per share, which represents a discount of approximately 25% compared to its A-share price of 46 RMB (about 51.67 HKD) [1] Group 2 - Muyuan Foods is the largest pig farming company globally, with an expected breeding capacity of 81 million pigs per year by the end of 2024 [1] - The company forecasts a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a decline of 12.20% to 17.79% year-on-year due to fluctuations in the pig market [4][6] - The average selling price of commercial pigs is expected to be around 13.5 RMB per kilogram in 2025, down approximately 17.3% compared to the previous year [4][6] Group 3 - The domestic supply of breeding sows remains high, coupled with improved industry biosecurity and production efficiency, leading to increased pig supply [7] - Despite a slight increase in pig prices in January 2026, the overall market remains under pressure, with expectations of price declines post-holiday [7] - Muyuan Foods aims to use approximately 10% of the net proceeds from the IPO, around 1.046 billion HKD, for working capital and general corporate purposes [7]

记者丨刘婧汐 编辑丨高梦阳 1月29日，河南养殖龙头牧原食品股份有限公司（下称"牧原股份"，002714.SZ）启动H股招股。本次牧原股份H股全球发售由摩根士丹利亚 洲、中信证券（香港）及高盛（亚洲）担任联席保荐人。 根据本次H股全球发售方案，牧原股份拟发售H股总数达2.74亿股，其中香港公开发售占比10%，共2739.52万股；国际发售占比90%，共2.47 亿股。同时，牧原股份授予国际包销商15%的超额配股权，可额外配发最多4109.27万股H股，用以补足市场超额分配需求。 香港公开发售于1月29日上午9时正式开启，认购期至2月3日中午12时结束。 值得注意的是，牧原股份此次港股IPO招股价≤39港元，而1月30日A股收报46元人民币（约51.67港元）。 按照上限定价算，牧原股份港股招 股价相比A股折价约25%，并低于其2021年A股定向增发的发行价39.97元/股，新发股票价格不升反降。 牧原股份总部位于河南南阳，是全球最大的生猪养殖企业，2024年末养殖产能已达8100万头/年，形成集饲料加工、生猪育种、商品猪饲养、 屠宰肉食为一体的完整猪肉产业链。 据《2025胡润百富榜》，牧原股份创始人秦英林以 ...

1月29日，河南养殖龙头牧原食品股份有限公司（下称"牧原股份"，002714.SZ）启动H股招股。本次牧 原股份H股全球发售由摩根士丹利亚洲、中信证券（香港）及高盛（亚洲）担任联席保荐人。 21世纪经济报道记者 刘婧汐 根据本次H股全球发售方案，牧原股份拟发售H股总数达2.74亿股，其中香港公开发售占比10%，共 2739.52万股；国际发售占比90%，共2.47亿股。同时，牧原股份授予国际包销商15%的超额配股权，可 额外配发最多4109.27万股H股，用以补足市场超额分配需求。 香港公开发售于1月29日上午9时正式开启，认购期至2月3日中午12时结束。 值得注意的是，牧原股份此次港股IPO招股价≤39港元，而1月30日A股收报46元人民币（约51.67港 元）。按照上限定价算，牧原股份港股招股价相比A股折价约25%，并低于其2021年A股定向增发的发 行价39.97元/股，新发股票价格不升反降。 据国金证券研报，目前生猪价格底部震荡，整体来看供给端压力或使得节后猪价下跌。 在行业承压的大背景下，牧原股份赴港上市或许是其打开新融资渠道的重要一步。牧原股份在招股书中 表示，募集资金净额约10%，即约10.46 ...

《星岛》见习记者 洪雨欣 深圳报道 在生猪行业持续承压的背景下，养殖龙头牧原食品股份有限公司（下称"牧原股份"，002714.SZ）赴港 上市的步伐引发市场关注。 1月29日，牧原股份正式启动港股IPO招股，全球发售2.74亿股H股，最高发行价定为39港元/股（约合 34.71元人民币），预计募资104.6亿港元。 假设行使超额配售权，则牧原股份此次最多募资106.84亿港元。 然而，这一价格折算成人民币后，大致相当于牧原股份20日均价（47.73元/股）的七折，并低于其2021 年A股定向增发的发行价——当时为39.97元/股。 截至1月29日，牧原股份为A股同业中估值第一，总市值达2530.90亿元；H股同业中估值第一的海天味 业（03288.HK）总市值为1867.90亿港元（约合人民币1660亿元）。 值得注意的是，该轮定增正值猪周期由盛转衰的拐点，但牧原股份的资产状况和盈利状况仍表现良好。 2019年末至2022年9月末，公司资产总额从528.87亿元增长至1850.07亿元；营业收入分别为202.21亿 元、562.77亿元、788.90亿元和807.74亿元。 而如今，即便考虑汇率因素（按1港元 ...

农林牧渔行业：猪价短期回暖，不 改去化趋势 2026 年 1 月 30 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：猪价旺季回升，12 月均价下行。农业农村部监测数据显示， 2025 年 12 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 23.40 元/公斤、12.26 元/公斤和 22.63 元/公斤，环比变化分别为-3.50%、-2.27%和-1.81%。猪价在 12 月底部 回升，但均价下行。26 年 1 月猪价明显回升，截至 1 月 20 日，全国外三元生 猪均价 12.90 元/公斤。 供应端： 12 月份，疫病点状爆发和行业亏损影响，养殖端整体出栏节奏偏快。 进入 26 年 1 月，规模场按照正常节奏出栏，中小散户节奏放缓，对 1 月上旬 猪价形成支撑。需求端：元旦支撑需求阶段性走高，12 月生猪屠宰开工率环 比上涨 5.32 个百分点至 39.44%。1 月春节备货逐步开启，终端市场有所提振。 但屠宰端冻品出库对开工率和价格上行造成阻力。 产能变化趋势：国家统计局数据显示，10 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3990 万头，环 比下降 1.10%，12 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3961 万头 ...