瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.13」 碳酸锂市场周报 长假将至供需双减，锂价或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡走强，涨跌幅为14.84%，振幅15.06%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价152640元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，1月份，我国CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，核心CPI同比上 涨0.8%；PPI环比上涨0.4%，连续4个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点，同比则下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5 个百分点。基本面原料端，锂矿价格随锂价区间波动，矿商出货意愿较强，但冶炼厂由于备货较为充足，态度偏谨慎 观望。供给端，上游冶炼厂因春节长假来临而生产产能有所减弱，加之物流停运，国内供给量逐步收减。需求端，由 于假期放假原因，加之前期锂价回落时节前采买备货基本已完成，现货市场成交较为零星，逐步清淡。整体来看，碳 酸锂基本面或将处于供需双减的局面，产业库存逐步下降 ...

经济观察网 瑞达期货（002961）近期密集推进资本运作，2026年1月20日公司公告计划以5.89亿元收购 申港证券11.94%股权，以补全证券业务牌照；2026年2月3日董事会审议通过以1.5亿元自有资金增资全 资子公司瑞达新控，增资后其注册资本增至9亿元，旨在强化风险管理主业和综合金融转型。同时，公 司管理层频繁变动，2025年11月副总经理田瑶转任总经理助理，另一位副总经理徐志谋转任子公司董事 长，引发市场对管理稳定性的关注。合规方面，2025年公司及分支机构累计收到至少4次监管警示函， 涉及内控、从业人员管理等问题，最近一次为2025年12月四川证监局对乐山营业部出具警示函。 截至2025年9月30日，瑞达期货资产总额204.40亿元，负债总额172.92亿元，股东权益31.48亿元；2025 年前三季度实现营业总收入16.21亿元，净利润3.88亿元，归母净利润3.86亿元，基本每股收益0.87元， 显示自有资金较为充裕。核心子公司瑞达新控同期资产总额23.96亿元，净资产10.77亿元，2025年1-9月 营业收入7.93亿元，净利润1.21亿元，为非经纪业务重要收入来源。 财报分析 以上内容基 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2603 fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1,958 yuan/ton. This week, the operating loads in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased slightly but remained at a high level [2]. - Affected by the maintenance of some domestic alumina plants, the alumina operating rate decreased slightly. The load of some viscose staple fiber units was slightly adjusted, and the operating rate decreased slightly. Printing and dyeing enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have fully taken holidays and stopped production, and the printing and dyeing operating rate has dropped to 0% [2]. - Some downstream enterprises in East and South China actively replenished their stocks this week, and some production enterprises in North and Northwest China cleared their inventories before the Spring Festival. The inventory of liquid caustic soda plants across the country decreased month - on - month, but the inventory was still at a relatively high level compared to the same period [2]. - Affected by the weak price of liquid chlorine, Shandong's chlor - alkali profit showed a downward trend this week, and the theoretical loss of enterprises deepened. With the decline of chlor - alkali profit, the market price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong has gradually stopped falling and rebounded. However, in the short term, the caustic soda price is still suppressed by high domestic supply and weak demand. Sustained rebound requires the support of production cuts by chlor - alkali plants in the future [2]. - After the Spring Festival, as the delivery month of the 03 contract approaches, the price rebound space is limited. The daily range of SH2603 is expected to be around 1,930 - 2,000. The 05 contract trades on the expectation of chlor - alkali plant maintenance, and the price has relatively high upward elasticity. The daily range of SH2605 is expected to be around 2,130 - 2,200 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 1,958 yuan/ton, and the position of the main caustic soda contract was 90,829 lots, a decrease of 21,499 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures traders in caustic soda was - 1,150 lots, and the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 170,290 lots, a decrease of 89,978 lots [2]. - The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2,400 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2,168 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu it was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 1,875 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton, and the basis of caustic soda was - 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 237.5 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in the Northwest it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Jiangsu it was 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry News - From February 6th to February 12th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% [2]. - From January 31st to February 6th, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.71% month - on - month to 84.06%. From January 30th to February 5th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.15% month - on - month to 88.28%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 27.91% month - on - month to 0% [2]. - As of February 5th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above across the country was 471,400 wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.41% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97% [2]. - On February 12th, the daily profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was - 266 yuan/ton [2]

停机放假，暂停对原料的采购，纱线库存明显增加。不过市场普遍存在植棉面积调减预期，对棉价形成有 力支撑。考虑到当前长假临近，短期暂且观望为主。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 棉花(纱)产业日报 2026-02-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14790 | 45 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20655 | 65 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓 ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 东产销数据表现一般，现货价格持稳为主，预计后市郑糖价格窄幅震荡，长假临近，注意风险控制。 数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 白糖产业日报 2026-02-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5254 | -12 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 443331 | -8525 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production and capacity utilization rate of styrene increased month - on - month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the EPS, PS, and UPR devices are about to reduce their loads seasonally, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. The market has entered the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage, and the inventory pressure is not large. The integrated and non - integrated profits decreased month - on - month, but the profits are still at a relatively high level. The profits of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS are low. As the negative factors in the downstream of the industrial chain are transmitted upwards, the over - valued state of styrene is expected to be unsustainable. The EB2603 daily range is expected to be around 7340 - 7600 [2] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of styrene was 7453 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan; the trading volume was 356126, a decrease of 171983; the long position of the top 20 holders was 417204 hands, a decrease of 16070 hands; the net long position of the top 20 holders was - 13532 hands, an increase of 2150 hands; the short position of the top 20 holders was 430736 hands, a decrease of 18220 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity was 4402 hands, an increase of 2654 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan. The mainstream prices in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 7375 yuan/ton (an increase of 75 yuan), 7825 yuan/ton (an increase of 85 yuan), 7575 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 7615 yuan/ton (an increase of 60 yuan) respectively [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia was 696 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 773.38 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the price of ethylene FD US Gulf was 399.5 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 8.2 US dollars), the FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 309 cents/gallon (a decrease of 3 cents), the FOB price of pure benzene in Rotterdam was 919 US dollars/ton (an increase of 7 US dollars), the market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 6150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the market price of pure benzene in the East China market was 6060 yuan/ton (an increase of 25 yuan), and the market price of pure benzene in the North China market was 6060 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 157805 tons, an increase of 1965 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 9.62 tons, a decrease of 1.24 tons; the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, an increase of 2.98 percentage points; the ABS operating rate was 64.4%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The PS operating rate was 55.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points; the UPR operating rate was 38%, an increase of 2 percentage points; the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate was 83%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From February 6th to 12th, styrene production increased by 1.6% month - on - month to 35.65 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.12% month - on - month to 71.08%. From January 30th to February 5th, the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 0.7% month - on - month to 26.04 tons. As of February 12th, the styrene factory inventory was 16.09 tons, an increase of 1.94% compared with last week. As of February 9th, the styrene inventory in the East China port was 9.62 tons, a decrease of 11.42% compared with last week; the styrene inventory in the South China port was 1.2 tons, unchanged compared with last week [2]

苹果产业日报 2026-02-12 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) | 9739 | 138 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 112583 | 9935 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 10404 | 824 | | | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 5.25 | 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 0 | 2.4 | 0 | | | 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 | | 元/斤) 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | 4.2 | 0 | 3.7 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) | 5128.51 | 168.34 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) | | | | 产业情况 | | | | | | | | 水果批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) 全国苹果冷库总 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the Shanghai nickel will experience short - term shock adjustment, and it is necessary to pay attention to the competition around the 140,000 - yuan mark. The macro - economic situation is complex with the US non - farm report affecting interest rate cut expectations, and China's CPI and PPI showing specific changes. The supply side of the nickel industry has factors such as reduced nickel ore imports and potential supply contractions in the future, while the demand side has positive signs from stainless steel and new - energy vehicle sectors. The inventory situation shows an increase both domestically and overseas, and the market sentiment is relatively flat from a technical perspective [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 139,610 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 250 yuan/ton. The 03 - 04 month contract spread is - 220 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 18,065 dollars/ton, up 515 dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 70,629 lots, a decrease of 5,811 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 44,735 lots, a decrease of 4,761 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 285,750 tons, unchanged [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 57,457 tons, an increase of 2,061 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,176 tons, an increase of 384 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 52,027 tons, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 145,350 yuan/ton, up 2,750 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 145,450 yuan/ton, up 2,950 yuan/ton [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 5,740 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 209.92 dollars/ton, up 2.3 dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 million tons, a decrease of 134.67 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,108.53 million tons, a decrease of 63.81 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 75.53 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, a decrease of 700 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7472 million tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 557,200 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Li Qiang proposed to comprehensively promote the scientific and technological innovation, industrial development, and enabling applications of artificial intelligence to cultivate and strengthen new productive forces [3]. - China's CPI year - on - year increase in January dropped from 0.8% to 0.2%, mainly due to the Spring Festival month shift and the expansion of energy price decline caused by international oil price changes. The year - on - year decline of PPI in January narrowed to 1.4% [3]. - The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, and hourly wages increased by 0.4% month - on - month [3]. 3.7 Key Points of View - Macroeconomic aspect: The US non - farm report in January was strong, suppressing the market's interest rate cut expectations. Traders postponed the expected time of the first interest rate cut from June to July. China's CPI year - on - year increase in January dropped to 0.2%, and the PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4% [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The Philippines entered the rainy season, and the nickel ore import volume showed a downward trend. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year, and the raw material contraction is expected to be transmitted in the second quarter. The ore production quota of the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay Nickel Mine, will be only 12 million tons this year, significantly lower than the adjusted 42 million tons in 2025 [3]. - Smelting end: The ferronickel production in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large. With the recent rise in nickel prices, there is a profit margin for production, and the refined nickel output is expected to rise again [3]. - Demand end: The profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, and the market mainly purchases on dips, with the spot premium rising. The overseas LME inventory continues to increase, and the spot premium is lowered [3]. - Technical aspect: The position is stable, the price is adjusted, and the market sentiment is flat [3].

明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2026/2/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 1258.900 75.7↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1566.1 | | +71.50↑ | | 期货盘面 | -307.20 +15.90↑ EC2604-EC2608价差 EC2604-EC2606价差 | -373.10 | | +30.00↑ | | EC合约基差 | 399.04 -81.00↓ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 31021 -2006↓ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1657.94 -134.20↓ S ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The I2605 contract fluctuated weakly on Thursday. Macroeconomically, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 130,000 in January, far exceeding market expectations, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts slowed down. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of iron ore from Australia and Brazil declined, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was stable, the molten iron output remained below 2.3 million tons, and the iron ore port inventory reached a new high. Overall, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the restocking demand of steel mills weakens, and the futures price continues to consolidate within a range. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded at a low level with shrinking red bars. The view is for short - term trading with attention to risk control. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 762.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50 yuan; the position volume was 497,918 lots, a decrease of 9039 lots. - The spread between the I 5 - 9 contracts was 17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 24481 lots, a decrease of 2098 lots. - The warehouse receipts of the I Dalian Commodity Exchange were 2,900.00 lots, with no change. - The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 99.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.35 US dollars. [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the price of 60.5% Macfarlane powder ore at Qingdao Port was 808 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 1 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Chaote powder ore at Jingtang Port was 723 yuan/dry ton, with no change. The basis of the I main contract (Macfarlane powder dry ton - main contract) was 46 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 99.95 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.25 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Macfarlane powder ore at Qingdao Port was 3.25, an increase of 0.02. - The estimated import cost was 799 yuan/ton. The global weekly iron ore shipment volume was 2,535.30 million tons, a decrease of 559.30 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,455.60 million tons, a decrease of 213.60 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - The weekly iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 17,914.68 million tons, an increase of 156.42 million tons; the weekly iron ore inventory of sample steel mills was 10,316.64 million tons, an increase of 348.05 million tons. - The monthly iron ore import volume was 11,965.00 million tons, an increase of 911.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 32 days, an increase of 3 days. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.51 million tons, a decrease of 1.05 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 61.27%, a decrease of 1.67%. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.07 million tons, a decrease of 2.71 million tons. The BDI index was 1,958.00, an increase of 76.00. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.86 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.51 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 8.417 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.47 US dollars. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.55%, an increase of 0.53%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.71%, an increase of 0.26%. - The monthly domestic crude steel output was 6,818 million tons, a decrease of 169 million tons. [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.09%, a decrease of 0.13%; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.60%, a decrease of 0.20%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.36%, an increase of 1.68%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 17.09%, a decrease of 1.03%. [2] Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the weekly output of sintered ore of 54 steel mills was 756.70 million tons, an increase of 7.60 million tons or 1.01% compared with the previous period. The sintered ore inventory was 277.04 million tons, a decrease of 10.61 million tons or 3.69% compared with the previous period. - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills under the new caliber was 3547.77 million tons, an increase of 84.62 million tons compared with the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 112.99 million tons, a decrease of 0.89 million tons compared with the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.4, an increase of 0.99 compared with the previous period. [2] Key Focus - The domestic iron ore port inventory, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills on Friday. [2]