1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the high-quality rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period, with strong expectations of a bumper harvest. Domestically, the high oil - mill operating rate and the accumulation of soybean meal inventory suppress the price of the rapeseed meal market. The future decline in pig inventory and the promotion of soybean meal reduction substitution also reduce demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand is offset by the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market fluctuates greatly, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, high - frequency data shows that palm oil production increases while exports decline, which restricts palm oil prices. However, increased exports from Indonesia, low inventory, and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with ample supply and high inventory pressure in rapeseed oil mills, which restricts prices. But the reduction in the oil - mill operating rate and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease supply - side pressure. The short - term volatility of rapeseed oil has increased [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9510 yuan/ton, down 111 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2699 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 696.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.9 Canadian dollars [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread is 61 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the rapeseed meal 9 - 1 spread is 288 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 194,637 lots, down 20,837 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal is 442,990 lots, down 3,790 lots [2]. - Top 20 net long positions: The top 20 net long positions of rapeseed oil are 16,891 lots, down 7,830 lots; the top 20 net long positions of rapeseed meal are 29,067 lots, down 6,136 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 3,487 sheets, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 1,200 sheets, an increase of 1,200 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,680 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the average spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,745 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Import costs: The import cost of rapeseed is 4,942.03 yuan/ton, down 33.88 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: The oil - meal ratio is 3.61, down 0.08 [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 59 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 89 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,350 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,890 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price spreads: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 690 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global production: The predicted annual global rapeseed production is 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly rapeseed import quantity is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 tons, an increase of 10 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 28.79 tons, an increase of 4.13 tons [2]. - Mill inventories: The total weekly rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, down 5 tons [2]. - Operating rates: The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 14.93%, down 0.79 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Regional inventories: The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 9.55 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 1.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 56.27 tons, down 2.18 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 33.41 tons, down 1.72 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 5.55 tons, down 0.05 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 26.1 tons, down 0.9 tons [2]. - Weekly提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.27 tons, an increase of 0.36 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.43 tons, an increase of 1.11 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly feed production is 2,762.1 tons, an increase of 98.1 tons; the monthly edible vegetable oil production is 440.4 tons, down 87 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4,707.6 billion yuan, an increase of 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 24.6%, up 0.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 24.61%, up 0.5 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.31%, down 1.48 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.31%, down 1.48 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 18.97%, up 0.72 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 17.27%, up 0.21 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.66%, up 0.75 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.41%, down 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 30, ICE rapeseed futures fell due to the weakening of CBOT soybean oil futures and good weather in western Canada. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed down 5.70 Canadian dollars at 696.60 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January rapeseed futures closed down 5.00 Canadian dollars at 707.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, 68% in the previous week, and 67% in the same period last year [2].

多晶硅产业日报 2025-07-31 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 49130 | -5575 8-9月多晶硅价差 | -120 | -45 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 126989 | -37501 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 40370 | -5050 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 46500 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -8205 | -3900 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.94 | 0 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 8760 | -525 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 52919.65 | -1219 ...

工业硅产业日报 2025-07-31 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8760 | -525 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 212932 | -29745 -236 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -66694 | 7394 广期所仓单(日,手) | 49846 | | | | 8-9月工业硅价差 | -5 | 40 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9800 | -200 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 10150 | -100 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 1040 | 325 DMC现货价(日,元/吨) | 12300 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 硅石平均价(日,元/吨) | 410 | 0 石油焦平均价(日,元/吨) | 1720 | 0 0 | | | 精煤平均价(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 木片平均价(日,元/吨) | 490 | | | | 石 ...

白糖产业日报 2025-07-31 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5793 | -11 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 255082 | -21949 -1532 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 19473 | -47 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | 7075 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | | 4533 | 39 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | 4585 | 40 51 | | | 吨) 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | 吨) | | | | | | 5761 | 51 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5828 | | | | /吨) 现货价:白砂糖:昆明(日,元/吨) | 5900 | -15 现货价:白砂糖:南宁(日,元/吨) ...

玉米系产业日报 2025-07-31 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) | 2288 79 769791 | -24 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 吨) -15 玉米淀粉月间价差(9-11):(日,元/吨) 19476 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 2660 93 162157 | -23 -1 -2989 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -22570 | 6231 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, | -21587 | -3822 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) | 154091 | 手) -2500 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 0 | -2573 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) | 372 | 1 | | | | 外 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that on Thursday, the I2509 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroeconomically, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations. In terms of supply - demand, the shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased this period, while the arrival volume decreased, and domestic port inventories continued to rise. Iron - water production remained above 2.4 million tons, and demand support still existed. Overall, due to the high linkage of the black series, the coking coal limit - down affected market sentiment, causing iron ore prices to decline under pressure. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were weakening downward, with the green bar expanding. The recommended operation is short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 779 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the position volume was 419,559 lots, a decrease of 32,551 lots. - The spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 25.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 20,682 lots, a decrease of 604 lots. - The warehouse receipts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange for I were 3,600 lots, an increase of 200 lots. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 100 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.71 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 839 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 824 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 2 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 723 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 45 yuan, an increase of 12 yuan. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.95 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.95 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.39, an increase of 0.07. - The estimated import cost was 831 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 32.009 million tons, an increase of 0.918 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 143.9568 million tons, an increase of 0.1417 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.6306 million tons. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 105.95 million tons, an increase of 7.82 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, an increase of 2 days. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 411,000 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 64.68%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 409,000 tons, a decrease of 43,500 tons; the BDI index was 1,995, a decrease of 114. - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.59 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.64 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.32 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.78%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 83.18 million tons, a decrease of 3.36 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 22.40%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.18%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.14%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.41%, a decrease of 0.68 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel statistics, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2.83069 million tons, an increase of 35,920 tons compared with the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 115,700 tons, an increase of 2,230 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 24.47, a decrease of 0.16 compared with the previous period. - From July 21st to July 27th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 22.405 million tons, a decrease of 1.307 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 11.573 million tons, a decrease of 2.319 million tons compared with the previous period [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Focus On - The iron ore port inventory in domestic ports, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills on Friday [2].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：RB：螺纹钢；HC：热轧卷板 螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/7/31 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,205.00 | -110↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1816026 | -213107↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -58700 | -59984↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -56 | 0.00 | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 85034 | 0.00 HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 185 | +17↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,380.00 | -100↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,467 | -103↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,470.00 | -10↓ 天津 HRB40 ...

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-07-31 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1247 130 | -64 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 10 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1117 974024 | -74 109991 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | 142138 纯碱前20名净持仓 | | | | | | 1101265 | | -344377 | -14009 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -215547 | -19125 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 1500 | 145 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -83 | 6 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -129 | -4 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -11 | 7 | | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | 1 | -3 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1714 | -28 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -22 | 6 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 141557 | -5600 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -18779 | 3449 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 3233 | 333 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1780 | 10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 56 | 28 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 430 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 425 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 54.3 | 0.2 企业库存(周,万吨 ...

价货接受意愿较低，供需两弱局面。国内库存进入去库周期，随着国内不锈钢减产持续，库存下降有所加 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 不锈钢产业日报 2025-07-31 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12805 | -115 08-09月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 10 | 10 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -23761 | 6549 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 94448 | -8202 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 103234 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13500 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9500 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 365 | 115 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍 ...