1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the corn market, in the US, as the corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, but the estimated corn yield this year is lower than the previous USDA forecast, and the expectation of a Sino - US trade agreement boosts the market. In China, in the Northeast, the corn yield has increased significantly, but the purchase price has slightly decreased with the increase in new grain supply. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market supply has slightly declined due to farmers' reluctance to sell, and feed enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode. The corn futures price has weakened again after a slight rebound, maintaining a low - level volatile consolidation [2]. - For the corn starch market, the increase in new - season corn supply weakens the cost support for corn starch, and the substitution advantage of tapioca starch squeezes the market demand. However, the industry's operating rate is lower than the same period in previous years, and the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased. The starch market fluctuates synchronously with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract of domestic yellow corn is 2111 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 81914 hands, down 5324 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 63966 hands; the closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 434.5 cents/bushel, up 2.75 cents [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2419 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 54064 hands, up 4667 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 12504 hands; the main - contract CS - C spread is 337 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - CBOT corn: The total weekly position is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2242.16 yuan/ton, down 0.59 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2120 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 1974.15 yuan/ton, up 0.3 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract is 83 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China are 427.11 million hectares, 53 million hectares, 295 million hectares respectively, and the predicted yields are 36.44 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, 32 million tons respectively, with no changes [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: 480,000 tons in southern ports, 1.04 million tons in northern ports, 2.334 million tons in deep - processing enterprises, up 298,000 tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: 1.128 million tons, down 12,000 tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.05%, a monthly decline of 0.97%, and a year - on - year increase of 36.89% [2][3]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly output is 3.1287 million tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profit: 120 yuan/ton in Shandong, 119 yuan/ton in Hebei, 105 yuan/ton in Jilin [2]. - Operating rate: 61.67% for alcohol enterprises, 58.86% for starch enterprises, up 3.24 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.48%, down 0.43 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.25%, up 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.24%, up 0.74 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.25%, up 0.75 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Analysts expect the net export sales volume of US corn in the week ending October 23, 2025, to be between 1.1 million and 2.1 million tons [2]. - As of October 27, the planting progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's Paraná state is 98%, up from 94% last week [2]. 3.9 Key Focus - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading operations is expected to inject stable liquidity into the market, significantly boosting bond market sentiment. The positive progress in China-US trade talks has alleviated the market disturbance caused by trade policy uncertainties. The continuous repair of the economic fundamentals and the implementation of loose fiscal policies still require a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to purchase medium - and short - term treasury bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially drive long - term interest rates down. However, the potential suppression of long - term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite should be watched out for. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position and closely monitor the implementation progress and impact of the new fund fee regulations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T主力收盘价 rose 0.05% to 108.630 with a volume of 68,993 (down 22,365); TF主力收盘价 remained unchanged at 106.065 with a volume of 54,366 (down 44,952); TS主力收盘价 fell 0.01% to 102.554 with a volume of 33,991 (down 22,127); TL主力收盘价 rose 0.19% to 116.150 with a volume of 128,226 (up 2,790) [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most futures spreads decreased, such as TL2512 - 2603价差 down 0.04 to 0.27, T2512 - 2603价差 down 0.01 to 0.32 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T主力持仓量 decreased by 1,169 to 245,110; TF主力持仓量 decreased; TS主力持仓量 increased by 2,319 to 73,541; TL主力持仓量 decreased by 1,963 to 144,078. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS had different changes [2]. 3.2 CTD and Active Bond Quotes - **CTD Net Prices**: Some CTD net prices increased, like 220017.IB rose 0.0639 to 106.7228, 250003.IB rose 0.0308 to 99.7127; some decreased, such as 220016.IB fell 0.0032 to 101.9375 [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: Yields of 1 - 7Y active bonds decreased, with 1y down 4.00bp to 1.3900, 3y down 4.00bp to 1.4200, 5y down 2.50bp to 1.5350, 7y down 1.75bp to 1.6550; 10y remained unchanged at 1.8130 [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Most short - term interest rates decreased, such as silver - pledged overnight down 4.26bp to 1.2974, Shibor overnight down 9.70bp to 1.3170, silver - pledged 7 - day down 2.00bp to 1.4800, Shibor 7 - day down 2.80bp to 1.4840 [2]. - **LPR Rates**: 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 212.5 billion, the maturity scale was 342.6 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. - The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and both sides will make corresponding adjustments to trade - related measures in the new round of China - US trade consultations [2]. 3.6 Economic Situation - In China, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in September continued to rise, with a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year, with a stable but slightly slower growth rate. Industrial added value increased significantly in September, social retail sales growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to shrink [2]. - In the US, the September CPI was lower than expected, core inflation was stable, and the ADP data showed a recovery in the employment market in October [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of reduced supply and slightly increased demand, with prices potentially supported. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increased supply and strong consumption, with inventory reduction and positive expectations. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - The cast aluminum market may be in a stage of tight supply - demand balance, with inventory reduction and positive expectations. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,245 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 50 yuan, down 50 yuan. The main contract position decreased by 7,311 hands to 275,967 hands. The LME aluminum three - month quote was 2,870 US dollars/ton, down 24 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,900 tons to 462,750 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.04 to 7.40 [2]. - The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,816 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 63 yuan, up 10 yuan. The main contract position increased by 15,281 hands to 392,755 hands [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,705 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 135 yuan, down 80 yuan. The main contract position was 13,046 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot was 21,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,790 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 595 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 45 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 0.99 US dollars/ton, down 3.60 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 799.90 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the alumina开工率 was 85.98%, up 3.05 percentage points. The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina was 25 million tons, up 7 million tons; the import volume was 6 million tons, down 3.44 million tons. The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.54 million tons, up 1.45 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 57.60 million tons, up 0.80 million tons. The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged. The electrolytic aluminum开工率 was 98.27%, up 0.16 percentage points [2]. - The primary aluminum import volume was 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the primary aluminum export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons. The aluminum product production was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons. The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27 [2]. - The automobile production was 322.65 million vehicles, up 47.42 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 9.71%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.23%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money was 12.36%, up 0.0175 percentage points; the call - put ratio was 1.38, up 0.0569 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - A central - enterprise strategic emerging - industry development special fund was launched with an initial scale of 51 billion yuan, focusing on strategic emerging industries and future industries [2]. - In September, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.35, up 3.1% month - on - month and 4.7% year - on - year, with the inventory level below the warning line but higher than the reasonable range [2]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year, ending the balance - sheet reduction from December 1st. There were significant differences within the Fed on the subsequent path [2]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, on October 30th to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [2] 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint - The alumina main contract oscillated weakly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The supply may decrease due to squeezed smelter profits, while the demand may be slightly boosted by high - running electrolytic aluminum capacity and positive macro expectations [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - The Shanghai aluminum main contract oscillated weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The supply may increase slightly, and the consumption may be strong, with inventory reduction and positive expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint - The cast aluminum main contract oscillated weakly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply may be restricted by tight raw materials, and the demand is resilient, with inventory reduction and positive expectations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures mostly declined on Thursday, with the main contract EC2512 rising 0.15% and the far - month contracts falling between 1% - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index increased by 172.33 points from last week, a 15.1% week - on - week increase. Spot index gains may support short - term freight rate increases. Trade war situation improvement, geopolitical conflict reaching a substantial easing inflection point, and leading shipping companies announcing November freight rate increases have led to a rapid recovery in futures prices. The fourth - quarter shipping peak season also has an impact. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1843.800, EC secondary main contract closing price: 1583, a 15.60 decline; EC2512 - EC2602 spread: 260.80, a 4.20 decline; EC2512 - EC2604 spread: 667.90, an 8.70 decline; EC contract basis: - 531.09, a 27.20 increase; EC main contract open interest: 30114, a 1792 decline [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1312.71, a 172.33 increase; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 863.46, a 14.34 decline; SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1403.46, a 93.14 increase; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, no change; CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 992.74, a 19.63 increase; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1293.12, a 25.21 increase; Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1961.00, an 11.00 decline; Panama - type freight index (daily): 1885.00, a 19.00 increase; average charter price (Panama - type ship): 17564.00, no change; average charter price (Cape - type ship): 23582.00, a 103.00 increase [1] 3.3 Industry News - Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on China - US relations and common concerns. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% early today, the second cut this year, and will end balance - sheet reduction from December 1. The US Senate passed a bill to end the national emergency used by the Trump administration to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, but the House Republican leadership has blocked a vote on overturning the tariff until next March [1] 3.4 Key Data to Watch - October 31: US September core PCE price index annual rate (TBD), Japan September unemployment rate (07:30), China October official manufacturing PMI (09:30), France October CPI monthly rate preliminary value (15:45), Eurozone October CPI annual rate preliminary value (18:00) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Momentum Factor R Index (480057) closed at 2880.13 points, down 0.93%, with a trading volume of 50.51 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.11% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The index had 12 stocks rising and 38 stocks falling on the day, with Dazhong Mining leading the gainers at a 9.99% increase, while Ruida Futures led the decliners with a 7.39% drop [1] - The net outflow of main funds from the index's constituent stocks totaled 2.77 billion yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 2.41 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Top Constituents - The top ten constituents of the Momentum Factor R Index include: - Heertai (002402) with a weight of 5.80%, latest price at 56.31, and a 1.37% increase [1] - Zhongjun Shengtang (000039) with a weight of 4.18%, latest price at 8.25, and a 0.73% increase [1] - Ping An Bank (000001) with a weight of 3.89%, latest price at 11.38, and a slight decrease of 0.09% [1] - Shunluo Electronics (002138) with a weight of 3.73%, latest price at 39.00, and a 4.06% decrease [1] - Other notable constituents include Lingxiao Technology (002884), Mengmai Technology (002595), Huafeng Chemical (002064), Weichai Power (000338), Jianghai Co. (002484), and Nongyu Technology (300953) [1] Group 3: Fund Flow Details - Detailed fund flow for the top stocks shows: - Heertai had a main fund net inflow of 101 million yuan, while retail saw a net inflow of 48.64 million yuan [2] - Shunluo Electronics experienced a main fund net inflow of 39.31 million yuan, but a retail net inflow of 36.14 million yuan [2] - Weichai Power had a main fund net inflow of 75.24 million yuan, with retail investors showing a minor net outflow [2]

Core Points - The Shenzhen Leading Index (399653) closed at 3133.91 points, down 0.66%, with a trading volume of 143.46 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.42% [1] - Among the index constituents, 11 stocks rose while 39 stocks fell, with Huali Group leading the gainers at 2.75% and Ruida Futures leading the decliners at 7.39% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Shenzhen Leading Index include: - Ningde Times (21.12% weight) at 398.29 yuan, down 0.43%, with a market cap of 181.73 billion yuan [1] - Midea Group (7.29% weight) at 75.30 yuan, up 1.21%, with a market cap of 57.86 billion yuan [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang (7.12% weight) at 514.74 yuan, down 1.15%, with a market cap of 57.19 billion yuan [1] - Luxshare Precision (6.18% weight) at 65.04 yuan, down 3.33%, with a market cap of 47.36 billion yuan [1] - BYD (5.69% weight) at 103.61 yuan, down 0.87%, with a market cap of 94.46 billion yuan [1] - Sungrow Power Supply (4.83% weight) at 194.68 yuan, up 1.67%, with a market cap of 40.36 billion yuan [1] - Wrigley (4.50% weight) at 118.47 yuan, down 0.30%, with a market cap of 45.99 billion yuan [1] - Gree Electric Appliances (3.53% weight) at 40.47 yuan, down 0.54%, with a market cap of 22.67 billion yuan [1] - ZTE Corporation (2.97% weight) at 44.83 yuan, down 2.97%, with a market cap of 21.44 billion yuan [1] - Xianlefang A (2.81% weight) at 4.09 yuan, up 0.49%, with a market cap of 15.30 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Summary - The net outflow of main funds from the Shenzhen Leading Index constituents totaled 8.84 billion yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 6.18 billion yuan [3] - Notable capital flows include: - Ningde Times with a net inflow of 94.67 million yuan from main funds and a net outflow of 38.40 million yuan from retail investors [3] - SF Holding with a net inflow of 93.43 million yuan from main funds and a net outflow of 61.70 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Other companies like Fenzhong Media and Luzhou Laojiao also experienced varying degrees of net inflows and outflows [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Panoramic Daily Report 2025/10/30 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although investment and consumption were under pressure in September, high - tech industries strongly supported the economy, and the Fourth Plenary Session's statement on developing new - quality productivity during the "14th Five - Year Plan" met market expectations [2] - After the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States, there were no more positive news released in the short term, and the market showed a situation of "good news exhausted" [2] - It is recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price and Spread - IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub - main contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2512) was at 4690.0, down 32.4 [2] - Various spreads showed different changes. For instance, the IF - IH monthly contract spread was 1654.8, down 23.0 [2] - The differences between quarterly and monthly contracts also changed. For example, IF quarterly - monthly was - 39.4, up 3.8 [2] Futures Position - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 21,903.00, down 1750.0 [2] Spot Price and Basis - The spot prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was at 4709.91, down 37.9 [2] - The basis of the main contracts showed different trends. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 19.9, down 4.7 [2] Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume increased to 24,642.94 billion yuan, up 1736.20 billion yuan. Margin trading balance increased to 25,066.48 billion yuan, up 118.88 billion yuan [2] - North - bound trading volume decreased to 2371.33 billion yuan, down 408.51 billion yuan [2] - The proportion of rising stocks decreased to 22.77%, down 26.23 percentage points [2] Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The strength of all A - shares decreased to 3.10, down 3.00 [2] - The technical and capital aspects also showed a decline trend [2] Industry News - The US will cancel the 10% so - called "Fenni tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. China will adjust counter - measures accordingly [2] - A - share major indexes closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.84% [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but Powell said a December rate cut was uncertain, pushing up the US dollar and weakening the offshore RMB [2] - From January to September, the profit growth rate of domestic industrial enterprises above designated size accelerated significantly, driven by high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing [2] Key Data Release Schedule - From October 27 - 31, 4347 A - share listed companies will disclose their third - quarter reports [3] - On October 30 at 21:15, there will be an ECB interest rate decision [3] - On October 31 at 9:30, China's October manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI will be released [3] - On October 31 at 20:30, the US September PCE, core PCE, personal expenditure, and personal income will be released [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2601 fluctuated weakly, closing at 6,968 yuan/ton. New maintenance devices were added this week, causing PE production to decline month-on-month. The downstream shed film is in the peak season, with orders and the start - up rate gradually reaching the annual high. Orders for express bags and bubble bags are accumulating before the e - commerce festival, leaving room for the start - up rate of packaging films to increase. Inventories of production enterprises and society are being depleted, with little inventory pressure. The cost of the oil - based process decreased slightly while losses deepened; the cost of the coal - based process increased significantly, and profitability shrank greatly. The market expects a slight increase in OPEC+ production in December, and combined with weak crude oil demand, international oil prices are under pressure. In the short term, L2601 is expected to weaken with oil prices, and technically, attention should be paid to the previous low support around 6,870 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 6,968, down 41; 1 - month contract was 6,968, down 41; 5 - month contract was 7,030, down 45; 9 - month contract was 7,066, down 39. The trading volume was 214,616 hands, up 1,678, and the open interest was 508,700 hands, down 3,569. The 1 - 5 spread was - 62, up 4. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 410,926 hands, up 5,094; the short position was 480,595 hands, up 4,494; the net long position was - 69,669 hands, up 600 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE(7042) in North China was 7,025.65 yuan/ton, down 9.57; in East China was 7,175.24 yuan/ton, up 0.71. The basis was 57.65, up 31.43 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - FOB: middle price: naphtha: Singapore region was 61.91 US dollars/barrel, up 0.31; CFR: middle price: naphtha: Japan region was 571.13 US dollars/ton, up 2.5. The middle price of ethylene CFR Southeast Asia was 756 US dollars/ton, down 15; the middle price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia was 766 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The start - up rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 81.46%, down 0.3 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of polyethylene(PE) in packaging films was 52.59%, up 0.4; in pipes was 32.33%, up 0.33; in agricultural films was 47.11%, up 4.22 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.46%, down 0.02; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.1%, up 0.11. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of polyethylene was 9.58%, both down 0.62 [2] 3.7 Industry News - From October 24th to 30th, China's total polyethylene production was 643,500 tons, a decrease of 0.72% from last week. The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous period. From October 17th to 23rd, the average start - up rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.8% from the previous period. Among them, the overall start - up rate of agricultural films increased by 4.2%, and the start - up rate of PE packaging films increased by 0.4%. As of October 29th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 416,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.16%. As of October 24th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 527,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. From October 18th to 24th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.42% month - on - month to 7,137 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 44.43 yuan/ton month - on - month to - 125.14 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 4.02% month - on - month to 6,769 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 301.85 yuan/ton month - on - month to 192.29 yuan/ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated October 30, 2025 [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core View - The overall terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is resilient with increased apparent demand, higher than the same period last year. However, after the Fed's interest rate cut and the end of the China-US summit, market bullish sentiment has weakened. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA have crossed and pulled back at high levels. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,318 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume is 1,473,286 lots, up 12,227 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 61,090 lots, down 9,028 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread is - 9 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of HC on the SHFE is 128,835 tons, down 5,938 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 212 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 4.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,260 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 52 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 4.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 807 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 3,000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 144.2065 million tons, up 1.3895 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 373,700 tons, down 1,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.3327 million tons, down 60,000 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei is 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons [2] 4.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.73%, up 0.48 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.92%, down 0.39 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 82.65%, up 0.28 percentage points. The weekly inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] 4.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles is 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2] 4.6 Industry News - On October 30, Mysteel reported that the actual weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the factory inventory was 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the social inventory was 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons; the total inventory was 4.0659 million tons, down 83,300 tons; the apparent demand was 3.3189 million tons, up 51,600 tons week - on - week. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance sheet reduction starting from December 1. Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade launched an anti - circumvention investigation into the anti - dumping case of hot - rolled coils originating from China [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term inventory of urea enterprises is expected to have small fluctuations. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1650 in the short term [3][4] - The release of previously suppressed demand and the appropriate follow - up of some reserve demand have increased the new order transactions and shipment volume of urea factories. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased this week [3] - The start - up rate of domestic compound fertilizer plants has increased, but the autumn fertilizer tail orders are approaching the end, and the start - up rate of compound fertilizer next week is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1627 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 78 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - The main contract's open interest is 270109 lots, down 240 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 31434 lots, up 3175 lots [3] - The exchange warehouse receipts are 0, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1630, 1580, 1590, 1600, and 1590 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, - 10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton [3] - The main contract basis is - 27 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [3] - FOB Baltic is 348.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 375 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 210,000 tons, down 236,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1,554,300 tons, down 75,900 tons [3] - The urea enterprise start - up rate is 80.32%, up 2.29%; the daily output is 182,600 tons, down 6000 tons [3] - The urea export volume is 1.37 million tons, up 570,000 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate is 27.71%, up 3.53%; the melamine start - up rate is 48.3%, down 6.88% [3] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 153 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with outsourced urea is 220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [3] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, down 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,100 tons, down 3300 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,554,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66% [3] - As of October 30, the port sample inventory of Chinese urea was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 47.62% [3] - The domestic urea production has increased due to the resumption of previously overhauled devices, and the probability of output increase is high next week [3] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3]