鸡蛋产业日报 2025-07-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3576 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -37023 | 891 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(9-1):(日,元/500千克) | -67 | 11 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 250165 | -1151 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 3 | 3 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | 3.26 | 0 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | -317 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 111.91 | 1.02 淘汰产蛋鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 104.09 | -4.59 | | | 主产区平均价:蛋鸡苗(周,元/羽) | 3.88 | 0 新增雏鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 76 ...

铝类产业日报 2025/7/29 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,615.00 55.00 | -145.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 0.00 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 3,243.00 28.00 | -185.00↓ +3.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 285,172.00 | -16798.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝 ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、 复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 798.00 | +12.00↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 482,200 | -7237↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 27.5 | -1.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -13772 | +12027↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 3,400.00 | 0.00 ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/7/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,503 | +106↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1612699 | +131532↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -81,030 | -15423↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -4 | +8↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 57772 | -590↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 156 | +7↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,480.00 | +20.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,470.00 | +20.00↑ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,500.00 | +20.00↑ 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/ ...

| | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-07-29 厂开工积极性，导致今年季节性旺季效果暂未显现。库存方面，国内库存呈现小幅上行态势，且仓单也有 所上行，反映出整体需求放缓。尽管铅蓄电池行业临近旺季，但当前需求尚未有效拉动库存去化。综上所 免责声明 述，沪铅整体供应有望小幅下降，需求无太大变化，叠加反内卷炒作，铅价短期有望震荡上行。操作上逢 低布局多单。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16900 | -15 LME3个月铅报价(日, ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/7/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,347.00 | +99↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2175237 | +239356↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 88542 | +94480↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -37 | +4↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 85034 | +594↑ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 156 | +7↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,480.00 | +50↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,569 | +51↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,450.00 | +10↑ 天津 HRB400 ...

玉米系产业日报 2025-07-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -17 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 2302 87 | -6 玉米淀粉月间价差(9-11):(日,元/吨) | 2666 81 | -17 -1 | | 吨) | | | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) | 期货市场 | 794329 | -11231 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 175002 | 1570 | | -1604 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -22888 | | -15707 | 9412 | | 手) | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) | 160521 | -7358 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 6499 | -100 | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) | | 36 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the improvement of market risk - appetite, the global major stock index futures and non - US currencies generally rebounded, leading to a slowdown in gold's safe - haven demand. The median forecast from a Reuters survey of 40 analysts and traders raised the 2025 gold price from $3,065 to $3,220 per ounce and expected it to reach $3,400 in 2026 [2]. - The $3300 level of the outer - market gold price may form strong support. Central bank gold - buying demand remains the cornerstone of gold demand, with China having increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, and nearly 40% of central banks considering geopolitical risks as an important reason to increase gold positions [2]. - Trump's threat of sanctions on Russia's oil exports due to the Ukraine war led to a 2.3% increase in Brent crude to $69.90 per barrel, indicating that geopolitical risks are still high and providing side - support for gold [2]. - Future Fed policy expectations, PCE inflation, and non - farm payroll data are potential driving factors. If the expectation of two or more interest rate cuts within the year is consolidated, it will provide solid medium - term support for the gold price. A significant shortfall in subsequent PCE growth may boost the gold price in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 771.44 yuan/gram, down 3.34 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9195 yuan/kg, down 17 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract holding volume of Shanghai gold was 212,407 lots, an increase of 2,732 lots; that of Shanghai silver was 392,743 lots, a decrease of 5,678 lots. The top 20 net positions of the Shanghai gold main contract were 155,575 lots, a decrease of 1,058 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 128,368 lots, a decrease of 781 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 31,263 kg, an increase of 1,005 kg; that of silver was 1,204,866 kg, a decrease of 3,403 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 767.04 yuan/gram, down 3.15 yuan; the silver spot price was 9146 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.4 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.19 yuan; that of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 49 yuan/kg, an increase of 17 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 956.23 tons, down 0.86 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,159.79 tons, down 70.64 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 253,038 contracts, an increase of 39,923 contracts; those of silver were 60,620 contracts, an increase of 1,172 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.24%, an increase of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.76%, a decrease of 0.19% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.34%, a decrease of 0.73%; that of at - the - money put options was 20.35%, a decrease of 0.73% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Trade and Politics**: Trump may impose a 15% - 20% uniform tariff on imports from countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the US. Sino - US high - level officials restarted tariff negotiations in Stockholm, aiming to extend the August 12 tariff truce by 90 days. The EU and the US reached an important agreement, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment weakened [2]. - **Geopolitics**: Thailand and Cambodia reached a cease - fire agreement, reducing geopolitical risks. However, Trump expressed disappointment with Putin again, and there were still frictions after the temporary cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine [2]. - **Central Bank Policy**: The European Central Bank's hawkish official Kazimir said that the bank is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again, and the reason for action in September is not sufficient unless there is a major unexpected economic turn [2].

瑞达期货（002961）指出，宏观方面，工信部部署下半年八方面重点工作，其中提到，制定增强消费品 供需适配性助力扩大消费行动方案。供需情况，热卷周度产量延续下滑，产能利用率81.11%；厂库和 社库双增，总库存+2.25万吨。整体上，双焦持续走弱，成本支撑下滑，同时影响市场情绪，热卷现货 成交萎缩。技术上，HC2510合约1小时MACD指标显示DIFF与DEA向下调整。操作上，日内短线交 易，注意节奏和风险控制。 西南期货表示，热卷基本面大逻辑与螺纹钢没有明显差异，走势或与螺纹钢保持一致。从技术面来看， 钢材期货高位遇阻，短期或延续调整。策略上，投资者可关注回调后的低位做多机会，注意仓位管理。 7月29日，国内期市黑色金属板块多数飘红。其中，热卷期货主力合约开盘报3398.00元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，热卷主力最高触及3505.00元，下方探低3398.00元，涨幅达1.83%附近。 目前来看，热卷行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于热卷后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 冠通期货分析称，从供需基本端来看，铁矿石、焦炭价格震荡走弱，成本支撑不足，房地产新开工数据 疲软，基建项目推 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly, with short - term participation recommended due to large market fluctuations recently. The rapeseed oil market has intensified short - term fluctuations, and recently it has performed weaker than soybean and palm oils [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9406 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2660 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 699.9 Canadian dollars/ton (up 2.6 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed was 5197 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) was 49 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), rapeseed meal (9 - 1) was 267 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 201338 lots (down 9445 lots), rapeseed meal was 468326 lots (down 15182 lots) [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was 15749 lots (up 2973 lots), rapeseed meal was 24840 lots (up 1665 lots) [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3487 sheets (unchanged), rapeseed meal was 0 sheets (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9570 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2560 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil was 9610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Import cost of rapeseed: 4981.37 yuan/ton (up 20.15 yuan) [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 113 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 100 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8320 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8970 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2850 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2] - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1220 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 570 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 290 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 232 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 20 tons (up 5 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate: 14.93% (down 0.79%) [2] Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 34 tons (up 10 tons), import volume of rapeseed meal: 28.79 tons (up 4.13 tons) [2] - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 9.55 tons (up 0.3 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 1.9 tons [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 56.27 tons (down 2.18 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory: 35.13 tons (down 2.91 tons) [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 5.55 tons (down 0.05 tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory: 27 tons (down 1.2 tons) [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil pick - up volume: 2.91 tons (down 0.38 tons), weekly rapeseed meal pick - up volume: 2.32 tons (down 0.14 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons) [2] - Retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry: 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2] - Edible vegetable oil production: 440.4 tons (down 87 tons) [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 20 - day was 15.85% (up 0.2%), 60 - day was 16.72% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.71%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.76%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 20 - day was 10.9% (unchanged), 60 - day was 12.14% (up 0.03%) [2] Industry News - On July 25 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures rose. The market was caught between bullish biofuel factors and bearish good crop conditions. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed up 5.10 Canadian dollars at 700.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71%, but still at a high level in the same period [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The domestic oil mill operating rate is relatively high, soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory, and the future pig inventory is expected to decline. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the reduction and substitution of soybean meal, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and the aquaculture peak season increases the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. But the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - High - frequency data shows that from July 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased while exports declined, which restricts palm oil prices. But the large increase in Indonesian exports and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, but the reduction in the operating rate of oil mills weakens the output pressure of rapeseed oil. The reduction in third - quarter rapeseed purchases eases the supply - side pressure [2] Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions announced by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2]