1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Zinc ore imports are increasing as long - term contract ores signed by smelters arrive at ports, and refineries are stockpiling raw materials for winter production. However, zinc ore processing fees are down, sulfuric acid prices have fallen, squeezing smelter profits and causing some losses. New production capacity is being released, but refined zinc output growth is limited [3]. - Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift to net exports expected [3]. - The traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak. The real estate sector is a drag, while policies in the automotive and home appliance sectors bring some positive factors. Domestic social inventories have increased slightly, but downstream demand is weak. LME inventories are continuously decreasing, and the spot premium has reached a record high, intensifying the tight situation [3]. - Technically, with reduced positions and rising prices, the bearish sentiment has weakened. Attention should be paid to the support at the 2.20 level. It is recommended to go long on dips [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,310 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts is - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,058.5 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars; the total Shanghai zinc open interest is 209,097 lots, down 4,393 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 8,609 lots, up 1,292 lots; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 68,271 tons, up 2,547 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 109,168 tons, down 459 tons; the LME inventory is 37,050 tons, down 550 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. - The basis of the main ZN contract is - 40 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 212.89 dollars/ton, up 25.52 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,310 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14%, down 0.47%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14%, down 0.48% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.36%, up 0.21%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.82%, down 0.06% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping that both sides would work towards each other to prepare for high - level Sino - US interactions [3]. - From January to September, the profits of large - scale equipment manufacturing industries increased by 9.4% year - on - year, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average level of all large - scale industries, driving the profit growth of all large - scale industrial enterprises by 3.4 percentage points. The high - tech manufacturing industry had a significant driving effect, with the profits of large - scale high - tech manufacturing industries increasing by 8.7% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points faster than from January to August [3]. - According to IMF forecasts, by 2030, the ratio of the US government's total debt to GDP will soar by more than 20 percentage points from the current level, reaching 143.4%, breaking the post - pandemic record [3].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 21,140.00 | -220.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,817.00 | -12.00↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -60.00 | +15.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -42.00 | -2.00↓ | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 285,793.00 | -25476.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 389,764.00 | +17280.00↑ | | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 64,600.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 239,607.00 | 0.00 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,878.50 | +22.00↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 469,275.00 ...

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/10/28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,790.00 | -12.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,564.00 | 0.00 | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 528,804.00 | -1064.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 340,627.00 | -4689.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -58,605.00 | +1360.00↑ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -29,139.00 | -2233.00↓ | | | SM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 38.00 | -2.00↓ | SF5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 78.00 | +10.00↑ | | SM | 仓单（日，张） | 38,603.00 | -5424.00↓ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 8,675.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The global sugar market is under pressure due to increased supply and demand concerns, with ICE raw sugar futures hitting a near - five - year low. In the domestic market, the supply of northern beet sugar will gradually increase in the short term, and the import volume of sugar is expected to exceed 500 tons this year, with significant pressure from later imports. Downstream demand is seasonally declining. However, the futures price is supported by cost, and the price is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5483 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the main contract position is 400,036 lots, down 1562 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7695, down 100; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 74,205 lots, up 4811 lots [2]. - The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 586, unchanged; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4135 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4194 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [2]. - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5241 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5319 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5720 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons [2]. - The cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, up 44.98 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.99%, up 1% [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, down 280,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil is 324.58 million tons, down 49.82 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (within quota) is 1410 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1351 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 304 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 226 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, up 8.5 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1591.7 million tons, down 184.1 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.85%, down 1.32%; that of put options is 7.85%, down 1.37% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.68%, down 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.1%, down 0.16% [2]. Industry News - China has suspended the import of all syrups and premixes from October 27 due to syrup quality issues announced by the Thai Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives [2]. - ICE raw sugar futures hit a near - five - year low on Monday, with the most actively traded March contract down 0.51 cents or 3.40% to 14.46 cents per pound [2]. Other Information - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with an expected total output of about 1.4 million tons [2]. - In September 2025, China's sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 280,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%; from January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4% [2]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that China's total sugar import volume this year will exceed 5 million tons, and the pressure of later import volume is still significant [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 28, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1242.0, down 0.76%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No.5 clean coal was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On October 28, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1747.5, down 0.96%. The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It is driven by cost and should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1242.00 yuan/ton, down 21.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1747.50 yuan/ton, down 32.00 yuan [2]. - The JM futures contract position was 911,218.00 lots, down 16,022.00 lots; the J futures contract position was 49,303.00 lots, down 710.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 63,323.00 lots, up 1,548.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 4,432.00 lots, up 44.00 lots [2]. - The JM5 - 1 monthly contract spread was 65.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 monthly contract spread was 129.50 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, down 100.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 2,070.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No.5 raw coal was 1,135.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1,775.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 yuan [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 157.50 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.50 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1,570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,760.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1,520.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan; the price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory was 1,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the JM main contract was 278.00 yuan/ton, up 91.50 yuan; the basis of the J main contract was 27.50 yuan/ton, up 87.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.70 million tons, up 0.60 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 289.60 million tons, down 0.80 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, up 0.01%; the monthly raw coal output was 41,150.50 million tons, up 2,100.80 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4,600.00 million tons, up 326.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.00 thousand tons, down 5.10 thousand tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 507.18 million tons, up 19.02 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.79 million tons, up 8.14 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1,029.70 million tons, up 32.33 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 58.64 million tons, up 1.35 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 782.96 million tons, down 5.36 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 633.16 million tons, down 6.28 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.77 days, down 0.13 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 11.07 days, down 0.12 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1,092.36 million tons, up 76.14 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 3,696.86 million tons, down 392.52 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.47%, down 0.77% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 41.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00 yuan/ton; the monthly output of coke was 4,255.60 million tons, down 4.10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.73%, up 0.48%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.92%, down 0.39% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7,349.01 million tons, down 387.84 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented. The mainstream steel mills in Shandong and Hebei have issued letters to increase the coke purchase price, with a wet - quenching increase of 50 yuan/ton and a dry - quenching increase of 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on October 27 [2]. - The latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that the US government debt - to - GDP ratio will reach 143.4% by 2030, exceeding that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century [2]. - On October 27, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council attended the Fifth Leaders' Meeting of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The parties to the agreement should cooperate more closely to jointly address challenges [2]. - US President Trump said that Russian President Putin should end the war in Ukraine instead of testing nuclear missiles, and added that the US has deployed a nuclear - powered submarine near the Russian coast [2]. - On October 25, the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, the major "west - to - east coal transportation" artery in China, completed its autumn maintenance, laying a foundation for coal supply during the coming winter and spring [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market is in the new cotton listing stage. The upside of cotton prices is restricted by hedging. In the short term, the upward space for cotton prices is limited. The supply side shows that Xinjiang cotton harvesting is over 50%, faster than last year, with a slight increase in ginning factory processing costs, while inland cotton acquisition is slow due to rain. The demand side indicates that the downstream textile enterprises' demand is weak, and the "Silver October" replenishment is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the impact of trade situations on the market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,565 yuan/ton, unchanged; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,765 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are -110,691 lots, an increase of 2,111 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are -141 lots, a decrease of 8 lots. - Cotton main contract positions are 579,084 lots, a decrease of 6,203 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions are 24,095 lots, a decrease of 94 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 2,471 sheets, a decrease of 17 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 6 sheets, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,830 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,475 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,116 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,050 yuan/ton. - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,145 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan; for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,491 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,645 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. - The national industrial inventory of cotton is 861,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 460,000 tons. - Cotton import volume is 100,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 130,000 tons, unchanged. - Imported cotton profit is 823 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 25.24 days, an increase of 0.39 days; grey fabric inventory days are 31.43 days, an increase of 0.31 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.811 billion meters, an increase of 0.11 billion meters; monthly yarn output is 2.0738 million tons, an increase of 45,900 tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value is 12,453,247,000 US dollars, a decrease of 1,692,657,000 US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value is 11,966,516,000 US dollars, a decrease of 426,686,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 6.5%, down 0.08%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 6.5%, down 0.08%. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 8.2%, unchanged; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 7.97%, down 0.03% [2] Industry News - As of October 27, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in the 2025/26 season is 6,378,658 bales, totaling 1,440,701 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.28%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton is 1,414,998 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.79%. - ICE cotton futures rose on Monday, driven by a weak US dollar and optimism about the alleviation of trade tensions supporting global cotton demand. The ICE December cotton futures contract closed up 0.36 cents, or 0.40%, at 64.56 cents per pound [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to buy on dips and place long orders [2] 2) Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, China's wind and solar power installed capacity exceeded thermal power, marking the energy revolution entering a deeper stage. The large - scale construction and grid - connection of new energy power stations are key to achieving the "dual carbon" goal [2] - On the supply side of polysilicon, as the dry season approaches in Southwest China in November, production costs for polysilicon enterprises are rising, and some enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan have started to reduce production. On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry chain has weak demand. Component tender prices are continuously falling, leading to delays in centralized projects and a reduction in the demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers [2] - Although N - type silicon materials maintain a certain premium due to the increasing penetration rate of TOPCon battery technology, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the overall industry gross margin is narrowing [2] - Internationally, high inventory in the European market suppresses import demand. The loosening of US tariff policies drives the growth of energy storage system exports but cannot fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America show a surge in demand, buffering the decline on the demand side [2] - Market rumors about the government's potential policy to regulate photovoltaic production capacity have boosted market confidence, but the specific details and implementation time of the policy are still unclear [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 54,355 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the open interest of the main contract is 114,932 lots, up 9,055 lots. The basis between December and January for polysilicon is 40 yuan, down 65 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,400 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.36 yuan/piece, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars; the basis of polysilicon is - 1,520 yuan/ton, down 2,195 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,955 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,350 US dollars/ton, down 270 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,873,000 kilowatts, up 1,016,000 kilowatts; the average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.74 yuan/watt, unchanged. The weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 pieces, down 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 pieces, down 6,706,500 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/piece, up 0.06 US dollars [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Next week, in the industrial silicon market, production cuts in the southwest and increased production in the northwest will occur simultaneously; there is high uncertainty in the demand for polysilicon, while the demand for organosilicon and aluminum alloy is relatively stable; costs provide support for prices at the lower end, but high inventories limit the upside potential of prices. Industrial silicon continued to fluctuate at the bottom today. If production capacity continues to decline, industrial silicon prices are expected to find support. However, the short - term main contract is near the high - price level, so it is recommended to short on rallies [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8955 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 211,670 hands, up 10,152 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 55,846 hands, down 7,555 hands; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 48,044 hands, down 141 hands; the closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon was - 375 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for industrial silicon was - 375 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 395 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2030 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon production was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon imports were 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; the monthly industrial silicon exports were 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organosilicon DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.85 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organosilicon DMC was 70.05%, up 0.69 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy production was 1.776 million tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's wind and photovoltaic power generation installed capacity exceeded that of thermal power for the first time, marking that the energy revolution has entered a critical stage. The large - scale construction and grid - connection of new energy power stations represented by wind and solar energy have become the key forces in achieving the "dual - carbon" goal. In terms of industrial silicon, on the supply side, Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning from the wet season to the dry season in October, leading to an increase in manufacturers' production costs. Some enterprises with exhausted raw materials have chosen to stop production. As November approaches, the scale of production cuts during the dry season is expected to further expand. In Xinjiang, with stable and low - cost power supply, some manufacturers are actively increasing production, with an increase in the number of furnaces in operation and continuous release of production capacity [2] 3.7 Demand Analysis - In the organosilicon segment, inventories are lower than the historical average. The production profit of organosilicon has slightly rebounded but remains in the loss range, providing some rigid - demand procurement support for industrial silicon. Most organosilicon manufacturers still have some pre - sold orders, and many are in maintenance or plan to enter maintenance, which maintains the demand for industrial silicon to some extent. In the polysilicon segment, inventories are as high as 278,300 tons, higher than the historical average. The prices of silicon wafers are flat, and the prices of solar cells are falling, with poor downstream transmission. Leading enterprises have maintenance plans, and there is a risk of weakening demand support for industrial silicon in the future. In the aluminum alloy segment, the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remains stable, with high demand for industrial silicon, showing relatively stable demand, but the marginal effect on industrial silicon prices is limited [2]

生猪产业日报 2025-10-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 12160 | -170 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 117248 | 7747 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 206 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -30906 | 694 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 12600 | 300 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 12600 | 200 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 12300 | 200 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 440 | 470 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4038 | -4 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.3 | 0.1 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2970 | 10 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the shipment of urea enterprises has improved slightly, but most of them only maintain a weak balance between production and sales. With some devices shut down for maintenance, the rising trend of enterprise inventory has slowed down, and the domestic urea enterprise inventory only increased slightly last week. However, according to the progress of agriculture, the duration of future demand is limited, and the inventory may still show an increasing trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,600 - 1,660 yuan in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1,635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is -73 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 273,001 lots, a decrease of 8,953 lots; the net position of the top 20 is -32,661; the exchange warehouse receipt is 2,970 sheets, a decrease of 2,318 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1,630 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), 1,590 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), 1,610 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 1,590 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is -25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports are 348.5 US dollars/ton and 375 US dollars/ton respectively, both unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 210,000 tons, a decrease of 236,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.6302 million tons, an increase of 14,800 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.03%, a decrease of 2.61 percentage points; the daily output is 182,600 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons. The urea export volume is 1.37 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, a decrease of 190,010 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 27.71%, an increase of 3.53 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 48.3%, a decrease of 6.88 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 153 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, a decrease of 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,100 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 22, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6302 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.92%. As of October 23, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 210,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52.91%. As of October 23, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.2779 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.23%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.61% [2]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]