股指期货全景日报 2025/11/3 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2512） | 最新 4634.8 | 环比 数据指标 -1.8↓ IF次主力合约（2511） | 最新 4646.2 | 环比 -0.2↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2512） | 3016.6 | 0.0 IH次主力合约（2511） | 3017.6 | -0.6↓ | | | IC主力合约（2512） | 7239.6 | -24.8↓ IC次主力合约（2511） | 7292.8 | -21.4↓ | | | IM主力合约（2512） | 7398.0 | +0.8↑ IM次主力合约（2511） | 7471.4 | +5.4↑ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1628.6 | +4.4↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2646.6 | -3.6↓ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 178.6 | +30.2↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 4275.2 | +0.8↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2825.2 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina's fundamentals may enter a stage of slightly reduced supply and relatively stable demand, with a suggestion of light - position short - long trading at low prices [2] - The fundamentals of Shanghai Aluminum might be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosted demand, and it's recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [2] - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy could be in a situation of slowed supply and increasing demand, and light - position oscillating trading is advised [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai Aluminum contract is 21,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 2,789 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,888 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 558,050 tons, up 98,525 tons [2] - The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 21,065 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE are 51,117 tons, up 273 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 21,440 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,790 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina output in October is 799.90 million tons, up 7.42%; the national alumina start - up rate is 85.98%, up 3.05% [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) in October is 704.31 million tons, down 21.49%; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 46.85 million tons, up 18.12% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum in October is 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity in October is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate is 98.27%, up 0.16% [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of aluminum products in October is 590 million tons, up 35.18 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 52 million tons, down 1 million tons [2] - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in October is 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 tons [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 10.65%, up 0.95%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 8.84%, up 0.65% [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 12.75%, up 0.0049; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.42, up 0.1219 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, aims to guide financial institutions to improve the transmission efficiency of monetary policy, especially interest rate policy, and study and reserve policy tools [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI is 49%, down 0.8 percentage points; the non - manufacturing PMI is 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage point; the composite PMI output index is 50%, down 0.6 percentage points [2] - Multiple Fed officials oppose interest rate cuts, expressing concerns about economic growth, inflation, and policy restrictions [2] - The CPC Central Committee proposes to expand two - way investment cooperation space, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce more detailed measures [2]

| | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-11-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 922.58 | 0.66 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 11455 | 14 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 151373 | -5518 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 261467 | -17774 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 104455 | -1274 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 93562 | 2032 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 87816 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 658851 | -6693 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 917.5 | 0.9 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 11350 | -120 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -5.08 | 0.24 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils has strong resilience, apparent demand has increased and is higher than the same period last year. However, the support from macro positives has weakened, and at the same time, furnace materials have weakened, causing hot-rolled coils to operate weakly. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are moving downward. Operationally, it's recommended to be bearish with oscillations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,295 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the position volume is 1,422,835 lots, down 47,384 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is -78,193 lots, down 10,918 lots. The HC1 - 5 contract spread is -9 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 128,537 tons, unchanged. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 216 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 75 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 800 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,960 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 374,400 tons, up 700 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points. The hot-rolled coil output of sample steel mills is 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 82.65%, up 0.28 percentage points. The hot-rolled coil inventory at sample steel mills is 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities is 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of automobiles is 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles; the monthly sales are 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly production of air conditioners is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly production of household refrigerators is 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly production of household washing machines is 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2] Industry News - Fed Governor Waller said that despite the risk of a government shutdown, the Fed will still obtain a large amount of data and should advance monetary policy based on data guidance. He further pointed out that all data indicate that the correct policy path currently is to continue to advance interest rate cuts. The Passenger Car Association disclosed that the preliminary estimate of new energy vehicle retail sales in October is about 1.32 million vehicles, and the penetration rate is expected to reach about 60%, possibly setting a new historical high [2]

| | | ，本周库存可能有一定变化，若库存去化速度放缓，将对价格上涨形成一定阻力。综合来看，沪铅预计震 荡，但高度有限，建议逢高空为主 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17420 | 30 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2025 | 3 | | 期货市场 | 12-01月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -10 | -5 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 119718 | 663 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -85 | -581 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 21645 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 35999 | -334 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 220300 | -3875 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17225 | 0 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17440 | 60 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -195 | -30 L ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/11/3 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1284.50 | -1.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1771.50 | -5.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 954896.00 | -3107.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 50255.00 | +377.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -62214.00 | -5683.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -5533.00 | +127.00↑ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 63.00 | -5.00↓ | J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 137.00 | -2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The freight rate market is currently highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to experience increased volatility. It is recommended that investors exercise caution, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC2512 closed at 1851.700, down 30.2; EC2602 closed at 1592.2, up 8.5. The spread between EC2512 - EC2602 was 259.50, up 9.10; the spread between EC2512 - EC2604 was 667.30, up 24.40. The EC contract basis was -538.99, down 47.70. The EC main contract open interest was 29320, down 2045 [1]. Spot Market Data - The SCFIS (European Line) was 1208.71, down 104.00 week - on - week; the SCFIS (US West Line) was 1107.32, up 159.83 week - on - week. The SCFI (Comprehensive Index) was 1550.70, up 147.24 week - on - week. The CCFI (Comprehensive Index) was 1021.39, up 28.65 week - on - week; the CCFI (European Line) was 1323.81, up 30.69 week - on - week. The Baltic Dry Index was 1966.00, up 17.00 day - on - day; the Panamax Freight Index was 1821.00, up 28.00 day - on - day. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 23368.00, down 882.00 [1]. Industry News - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng detailed the main tasks of the "dual - pillar system", including optimizing the base money supply mechanism, improving the market - oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, etc. [1] - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the China - US trade agreement might be signed as early as next week, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded positively [1]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with South Korean Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Kim Jung - gun to discuss maintaining the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain and strengthening regional and multilateral cooperation [1]. Market Analysis - The freight rate support has weakened as the latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index decreased by 104 points week - on - week, a 7.9% decline. However, mainstream shipping companies have issued price increase notices for November, and Maersk's successful price support in mid - to - late October has boosted market confidence [1]. - The container handling business at the Port of Rotterdam has come to a complete standstill, increasing regional supply chain uncertainties. The positive results of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have improved the market's expectations for the trade war situation [1]. - Geopolitically, there are attempts to start cease - fire negotiations, but the external mediation is at a deadlock. The eurozone economy shows resilience, and the German investor confidence index is expected to continue to improve in November [1]. Key Data to Watch - On November 4, the release of the US September trade balance (in billions of dollars) and the US September factory orders month - on - month rate are to be determined [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The steel market is facing a mix of long - and short - term factors. The mainstream short - position holdings have increased more, and the market is under short - term pressure. The operation strategy is to expect a sideways - to - bearish trend, with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,079 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume is 1,919,017 lots, up 39,567 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 93,441 lots, down 27,034 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread is - 66 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 144,640 tons, down 1,200 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 216 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,354 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it is 3,330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it is 3,190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract is 191 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 800 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,960 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 374,400 tons, up 700 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.1259 million tons, up 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 46.60%, up 1.21 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.7171 million tons, down 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 4.3081 million tons, down 66,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 67.71%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar is 15.41 million tons, up 660,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 92.78, down 0.27; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is - 0.50%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is - 13.90%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 1.10%, down 0.9 percentage point. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing is 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of October 31, 20 cities have introduced 26 real - estate market relaxation policies, and more cities may follow to improve and standardize construction design plans and calculation rules. The US Treasury Secretary said that the China - US trade agreement may be signed this week, and China is willing to promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of China - US relations [2].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Economic fundamentals' continuous recovery and the implementation of expansionary fiscal policies require a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially drive long - term rates down. However, the potential upward pressure on long - term rates due to a rise in risk appetite should be watched out for. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL are the main contracts of 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and ultra - long - term (TL) treasury bond futures respectively. T's closing price rose 0.01% to 108.680, with a trading volume of 65,902 (down 276). TF's closing price fell 0.01% to 106.050, with a trading volume of 52,682 (up 1,537). TS's closing price fell 0.03% to 102.516, with a trading volume of 24,640 (down 6,201). TL's closing price fell 0.11% to 116.510, with a trading volume of 98,827 (down 4,923) [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads showed changes. For example, the TL2512 - 2603 spread was 0.24 (down 0.02), and the T12 - TL12 spread was - 7.83 (up 0.17) [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T's main position increased by 1,313 to 243,868. TF's main position increased by 1,862 to 151,286. TS's main position decreased by 1,209 to 71,166. TL's main position decreased by 4,976 to 137,774 [2]. 2. Cash Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds changed. For example, the net price of 220017.IB (4y) rose 0.0332 to 106.7458, while the net price of 250018.IB (4y) fell 0.0417 to 99.0955 [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: Yields of active treasury bonds showed different trends. The 1 - year yield remained unchanged at 1.38%, the 3 - year yield remained unchanged at 1.41%, the 5 - year yield rose 0.75bp to 1.53%, the 7 - year yield fell 0.75bp to 1.63%, and the 10 - year yield fell 1.00bp to 1.7925% [2]. 3. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Most short - term interest rates declined. The overnight silver - pledged repo rate fell 3.99bp to 1.3101%, and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate fell 6.00bp to 1.4000% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 4. Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The issuance scale was 783 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 3373 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 2590 billion yuan. The interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 5. Industry News - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The central bank governor detailed the main tasks of the "dual - pillar system". The finance minister proposed measures for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, including using special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, optimizing income distribution, and dealing with local government debt [2]. 6. Key Data to Watch - On November 3 at 23:00, the US October ISM manufacturing PMI will be released. On November 5 at 21:15, the US October ADP employment data (in ten thousand people) will be released [3].

Core Viewpoint - As of November 3, 2025, Ruida Futures (002961) closed at 23.07 yuan, down 2.2%, with significant net outflows from major and retail investors, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Ruida Futures reported a main revenue of 1.621 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.87%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 386 million yuan, an increase of 42.15% [3]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a single-quarter main revenue of 575 million yuan, down 13.91%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders rose to 158 million yuan, up 17.41% [3]. - The company’s debt ratio stands at 84.6%, with investment income reported at 599 million yuan [3]. Market Position - Ruida Futures has a total market value of 10.267 billion yuan, ranking 15th in the diversified financial industry, which has an average market value of 24.4 billion yuan [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 19.96, significantly lower than the industry average of 229.35, ranking 6th in the industry [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) for Ruida Futures is 12.64%, placing it first in the industry, while the industry average is 3.07% [3]. Investor Sentiment - Over the past 90 days, four institutions have rated Ruida Futures, with three giving a buy rating and one an increase rating, indicating positive sentiment among analysts [4]. - The average target price set by institutions in the last 90 days is 29.88 yuan, suggesting potential upside from the current trading price [4].