Core Viewpoint - The performance of four A-share listed futures companies in the third quarter shows significant divergence, with Ruida Futures leading in net profit growth at 42.15% year-on-year, while the overall industry is experiencing substantial growth in market scale and regulatory improvements [2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Ruida Futures reported a total operating revenue of 1.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.87%, with a net profit of 386 million yuan, marking a 42.15% increase [2]. - Yong'an Futures achieved an operating revenue of 8.36 billion yuan, down 55.26% year-on-year, but its net profit rose by 13.31% to 475 million yuan [2]. - Nanhua Futures had an operating revenue of 941 million yuan, a decline of 8.27%, with a net profit of 351 million yuan, down 1.92% [3]. - Hongye Futures reported an operating revenue of 462 million yuan, a significant drop of 76.77%, and a net profit of 209,970 yuan, down 87.27% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - As of October 9, 2025, the total funds in China's futures market exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [4]. - The total client equity of futures companies was about 1.91 trillion yuan, also reflecting a 24% growth compared to the end of 2024 [4]. - The number of effective clients in the market surpassed 2.7 million, a 14% increase year-on-year, with institutional clients growing by 3% and foreign clients by 11% [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The China Futures Association announced the implementation of the "Futures Market Making Business Management Rules" starting December 1, 2025, which aims to enhance the management and risk prevention of market-making activities [5][6]. - As of September 2023, 38 companies were engaged in market-making for 61 futures varieties, and 33 companies were involved in market-making for 69 options varieties [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expectation has increased this week due to multiple factors including the completion of the autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, relevant government notices, the Fed's interest rate cut, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting [7]. - The supply - demand of silicon ferroalloy is in a weak balance, with inventory at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke prices are stable, providing short - term cost support. However, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is in a loss state [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - It is expected that from November to December, the output of silicon ferroalloy will decline compared with the same period. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and the profit of coke is difficult to improve significantly. The alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The silicon ferroalloy is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: On October 25, the autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was completed. On the 28th, the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released, and on the 29th, relevant government notices were issued. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Profit**: Supply - demand is in a weak balance, inventory is at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke prices are stable, providing short - term cost support. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 380 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 360 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the market and winter equipment maintenance, the planned production of a Gansu enterprise in October is postponed to next year. It is expected that the output from November to December will decline compared with the same period. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and the silicon ferroalloy is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of October 31, the position of silicon ferroalloy futures contracts was 318,600 lots, a decrease of 41,000 lots compared with the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract monthly spread was 66, a decrease of 4 points compared with the previous period. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 4,471, a decrease of 6,692 compared with the previous period. The price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was 5,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [13][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 31, the basis of silicon ferroalloy was - 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 points compared with the previous period [25]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The national average daily output of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 16,170 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared with the previous week. The weekly demand for silicon ferroalloy in five major steel types was 20,275.3 tons, an increase of 1.70% compared with the previous week. The national silicon ferroalloy output (weekly supply) was 113,200 tons. The inventory of 60 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 71,990 tons, an increase of 5,430 tons compared with the previous week [28][34]. - **Upstream Situation**: As of October 27, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy remained unchanged. As of October 30, the prices of lanthanum coke in Inner Mongolia and Shenmu remained unchanged. The spot production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia was 5,682 yuan/ton, a 1.18% increase, and in Ningxia was 5,579 yuan/ton, a 1.20% increase. The spot profit in Ningxia was - 409 yuan/ton, unchanged [38][42]. - **Downstream Situation**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons compared with the previous week. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export of silicon ferroalloy with a silicon content greater than 55% was 292,900 tons, a decrease of 22,900 tons compared with the same period last year, a 7.25% year - on - year decrease [46].

目录 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.31」 焦炭市场周报 宏观扰动&成本推动，焦企亏损三轮提涨 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 1. 宏观方面，工信部就《钢铁行业产能置换实施办法（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见，各省（区、市）炼铁、炼钢产能置换比例 均不低于1.5:1；28日，"十五五"规划建议发布，其中提到综合整治"内卷式"竞争，同时，29日盘中，商务部等5部门办公 厅关于印发《城市商业提质行动方案》的通知，通知提到整治"内卷式"竞争，叠加美联储降息、中美领导人会晤，本周市场 预期增强。 2. 海外方面，美联储如期降息25个基点，同时，12月降息概率有所下降；商务部介绍中美经贸磋商成果共识：美方将取消针对中 国商品加征的10%所谓"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品加征的24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。 3. 供需方面，需求端，本期铁水产量延续季节性回落，铁水产量236.36，-3.54万吨，焦炭总的库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, rapeseed oil futures continued to decline, with the 01 contract closing at 9,422 yuan/ton, down 339 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price was affected by factors such as the harvest of Canadian rapeseed, the expected increase in palm oil supply, and the anticipation of Sino - Canadian trade talks [6]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with the 01 contract closing at 2,388 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton from the previous week. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price was boosted by the optimistic sentiment of Sino - US trade [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Market Review**: The 01 contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,422 yuan/ton, down 339 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Canadian rapeseed harvest is completed with a bumper crop, putting pressure on prices. The expected increase in Indonesian palm oil production and the uncertainty of the B50 biodiesel plan also impact the market. In China, the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed will lead to a structural tightening of imports in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil will continue to destock, supporting prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its substitution advantage limit the demand for rapeseed oil. The market is also affected by the anticipation of Sino - Canadian trade talks [6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term watch [8]. - **Market Review**: The 01 contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2,388 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The progress of US soybean harvest exerts pressure on prices, but the Sino - US summit has boosted market sentiment. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal will be restricted in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure is small. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market Price Trends - Rapeseed oil futures continued to decline this week, with a total open interest of 220,738 lots, down 30,322 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and rebounded, with a total open interest of 343,443 lots, down 28,052 lots from last week [15]. Top Twenty Net Positions Changes - The top twenty net positions of rapeseed oil futures were +2,459 this week, compared with +7,916 last week, showing a decrease in net long positions. The top twenty net positions of rapeseed meal futures were - 88,865 this week, compared with - 108,635 last week, showing a decrease in net short positions [21]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 7,540 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 2,955 lots [25][28]. Spot Prices and Basis Trends - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780 yuan/ton, significantly lower than last week. The basis between the active contract of rapeseed oil futures and the spot price in Jiangsu was +358 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan/ton, slightly higher than last week. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of rapeseed meal futures was +32 yuan/ton [34][40]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread Changes - The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +281 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +46 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [48]. Futures - to - Spot Ratio Changes - The ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.946, and the average spot price ratio was 4.04 [51]. Rapeseed - Soybean Oil and Rapeseed - Palm Oil Spread Changes - The 01 contract spread of rapeseed - soybean oil was 1,294 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed this week. The 01 contract spread of rapeseed - palm oil was 658 yuan/ton, with little change this week [61]. Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spread Changes - The 01 contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 633 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spot spread of soybean - rapeseed meal was 490 yuan/ton [66]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side**: As of October 24, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20,000 tons. The estimated arrivals of rapeseed in October, November, and December 2025 were 65,000 tons, 195,000 tons, and 580,000 tons respectively. As of October 30, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was +1,051 yuan/ton. As of the 43rd week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 4,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 0.98%. In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 115,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 691,600 tons (85.71%) and a month - on - month decrease of 131,400 tons [72][76][80][84]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 601,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,000 tons (1.44%). In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil was 156,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,200 tons (6.99%) and a month - on - month increase of 19,000 tons [88]. - **Demand - Side**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.95 million tons, and the monthly retail sales of catering were 450.86 billion yuan. As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the contract volume of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 35,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons (8.30%) [92][96]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 8,000 tons, unchanged from last week. In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal was 157,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64,700 tons (29.08%) and a month - on - month decrease of 55,700 tons [100][104]. - **Demand - Side**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3.1287 million tons [108]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - As of October 31, rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly higher this week. The implied volatility of the corresponding options was 22.13%, up 2.8% from 19.33% last week, at a slightly higher level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [112].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market had a mixed performance this week. Most major indices rose slightly, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rising over 3%. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The market was influenced by Sino - US talks, rising at first and then falling back due to the lack of new short - term news [6][14]. - The bond market strengthened this week. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is expected to inject stable liquidity into the market. The economic fundamentals' recovery and the implementation of loose fiscal policies require a low - interest - rate environment. Short - term interest rates are expected to decline, which may also drive long - term interest rates down [6]. - The commodity market is expected to remain volatile. Powell's hawkish stance pushed up the US dollar index, which had a negative impact on commodity prices. However, gold as a safe - haven asset offset some of the decline [6]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index continued to rebound, the euro may be supported in the medium term due to the narrowing of the US - EU interest rate spread, and the Japanese yen is likely to be under pressure in the short term [6][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock Market**: The CSI 300 Index fell 0.43%, while the CSI 300 Stock Index Futures rose 0.10%. The overall A - share market rose slightly, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rising over 3% and other indices rising less than 1%. Small - and medium - cap stocks were stronger. The market was affected by Sino - US talks, rising from Monday to Wednesday and falling back from Thursday to Friday. The trading volume increased compared with last week. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6][14]. - **Bond Market**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.18% this week, with a weekly change of - 0.33BP. The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.62%. The central bank's operations are expected to inject liquidity, and the market sentiment was boosted. The allocation suggestion is to trade within a range [6]. - **Commodity Market**: The Wind Commodity Index fell 1.96%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index fell 0.05%. The market is expected to remain volatile. The allocation suggestion is to mainly stay on the sidelines [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.50%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract fell 0.53%. The US dollar index continued to rebound, the euro may be supported in the medium term, and the yen is likely to be under pressure. The allocation suggestion is to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [6][12]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Global Trade and Politics**: Sino - US reached a consensus on the trade framework, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment declined. The US Senate failed to pass a bill to end the government shutdown, and the tariff on Brazil was "symbolically" vetoed [12][17]. - **Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there were significant differences within the Fed on future interest - rate paths. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan kept their interest rates unchanged [12][17]. - **Domestic Policy**: The central bank's governor said that the moderately loose monetary policy would be implemented in detail, and new policy measures would be studied and reserved [14]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In September, the annual growth rate of industrial enterprise profits above designated size was 21.6%. In October, the official manufacturing PMI was 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1 [13][18]. - **US**: In August, the monthly rate of the FHFA house price index was 0.4%, and the annual growth rate of the S&P/CS20 - city non - seasonally adjusted house price index was 1.6%. The Fed cut the upper limit of the interest rate to 4% [18]. - **EU**: The initial annual GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 1.3%, and the unemployment rate in September was 6.3%. The European Central Bank kept the deposit mechanism interest rate at 2% [12][18]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data such as the manufacturing PMI of France, Germany, the eurozone, and the UK, the PPI monthly rate of the eurozone, the ADP employment data in the US, and the Chinese export and import data in October will be released [82].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined slightly. The main contract EC2512 fell 1.2%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1% - 3%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index rose 15.1% week - on - week, which may support freight rates in the short term [8][39]. - The improvement of the trade war situation, the substantial inflection point of geopolitical conflicts, and the price increase announcements of leading shipping companies in November led to a rapid rebound in futures prices. The arrival of the fourth - quarter shipping peak season also had an impact [9][39]. - The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [9][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - Futures contracts: The main contract EC2512 closed at 1804.00, down 1.2% or 22.00. Other far - month contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., also showed varying degrees of decline [12]. - Spot index: The SCFIS index closed at 1312.71, up 172.33 points or 15.1% week - on - week [12]. - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures declined slightly this week, while the trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract increased, indicating a warming market [15][18]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, and announced to end balance - sheet reduction from December 1. There are significant differences within the Fed on the subsequent policy path [22]. - The Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur achieved positive results. The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and relevant export control and investigation measures will be suspended for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant counter - measures accordingly [22]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange launched 9 policy measures to facilitate cross - border trade business [22]. - The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive time, believing that inflation has reached the target level [22]. 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts widened this week [25]. - The export container freight rate index declined this week [28]. - Container shipping capacity continued to grow. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [32]. - The charter price of Panamax ships continued to rise, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar widened [34]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The market expects that the GDP of core euro - zone countries such as Germany may achieve a mild positive quarter - on - quarter growth in the fourth quarter, and the economic recovery trend in November is expected to continue [8][39]. - If the German new government's proposed fiscal expansion policy has more specific details, it will enhance investors' confidence in the medium - term growth of the euro - zone [8][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures declined by 0.49%, and the glass futures dropped by 0.92%. The soda ash futures showed a volatile trend. Affected by the market's interest - rate cut expectation, the price first rose and then weakened due to the expectation of increased production. The glass market had a similar trend to the soda ash market, but due to the sluggish real - estate sentiment, the decline of glass was more significant than that of soda ash. It is expected that next week, the soda ash price will mainly show a volatile and weakening trend, and the glass price will also face challenges due to supply and demand factors [6]. - For soda ash, the current operation of soda ash plants is relatively stable with no large - scale maintenance plans, and the overall production remains at a relatively high level. New production capacities such as those of Yuangxing Energy Phase II and Yingcheng Xindu Chemical are expected to be put into operation in December, which will further exacerbate the future oversupply situation. The demand from the float glass industry is mainly for daily production needs, and the short - term demand pull from photovoltaic glass is limited. For glass, the supply has shown an upward trend due to the restart of some cold - repaired production lines, but the "coal - to - gas" policy in the Shahe area and the policy of restricting new production capacity may relieve the marginal supply pressure. The demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and although the automobile industry provides some support, it cannot offset the negative impact of the real - estate demand decline [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to trade the SA2601 contract in the range of 1200 - 1260, with stop - loss set at 1180 - 1300. For the FG2601 contract, it is recommended to operate in the range of 1080 - 1130, with stop - loss set at 1060 - 1150 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures fell 0.49% and glass futures fell 0.92% this week. Soda ash first rose under the interest - rate cut expectation and then weakened due to production increase expectation. Glass followed a similar trend but declined more due to real - estate sentiment [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash supply is expected to increase with new capacities coming online in December, and demand is relatively stable with limited short - term pull from photovoltaic glass. Glass supply may face short - term contraction due to policies, and demand from real - estate is weak while the automobile industry provides some support [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade SA2601 in the 1200 - 1260 range with stop - loss at 1180 - 1300, and operate FG2601 in the 1080 - 1130 range with stop - loss at 1060 - 1150 [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Both soda ash and glass futures prices declined this week [8]. - **Spot Prices**: Soda ash spot prices remained flat, and the basis was stable. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1185 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 50 yuan/ton. Glass spot prices weakened, and the basis also weakened but is expected to stabilize in the future. As of October 30, 2025, the price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1048 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 43 yuan/ton [14][19][22]. - **Price Spread**: The soda ash - glass price spread strengthened this week and is expected to continue strengthening next week. As of October 30, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 144 yuan/ton [24][26] 3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Production and Operation**: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production increased this week. As of October 30, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 86.78% (up 3.3% week - on - week), and the weekly production was 75.76 tons (up 2.3% week - on - week). The number of cold - repaired glass production lines remained unchanged, and the overall production was stable. The production capacity utilization rate and daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased [28][42][49]. - **Profit and Cost**: Soda ash enterprise profits declined, with negative profits affecting future production. Glass enterprise profits also decreased due to weakening spot prices and increased costs. As of October 30, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash by the dual - tonnage joint - soda process was - 180 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 126 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using different fuels all decreased [35][40]. - **Inventory and Demand**: Soda ash enterprise inventories decreased slightly due to weak downstream demand and the decline in photovoltaic glass production. Glass enterprise inventories also decreased, but the inventory reduction is expected to slow down next week. The downstream deep - processing orders for glass increased slightly, but the demand remained low. As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.4 days [53][57][61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend, with the main contract 2512 of Shanghai lead futures being active and falling 1.34%. Due to the expected increase in secondary lead production and unchanged demand, the Shanghai lead price oscillated downward [4]. - In terms of supply, primary lead production is expected to increase slightly, while secondary lead supply may grow next week but with limited growth due to environmental - related transportation controls and tight waste battery supplies. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded, and the traditional consumption peak season provides some support for lead demand. However, the expansion of the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots and tariff - affected exports of lead - acid batteries will suppress demand growth. Inventory is decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and potential growth in secondary lead production, inventory may change next week, and a slowdown in inventory depletion will resist price increases. Overall, Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate next week with limited upside, and it is recommended to short on rallies [4]. - For operation, it is suggested that the main contract 2512 of Shanghai lead oscillates in the range of 17,200 - 17,500, with a stop - loss range of 17,100 - 17,600. Attention should be paid to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend this week, and the main contract 2512 fell 1.34%. Due to the expected increase in secondary lead production and unchanged demand, the price oscillated downward [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply may grow slightly with limitations. Demand has some support but is also suppressed. Inventory may change, and price upside is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2512 of Shanghai lead oscillates in the range of 17,200 - 17,500, with a stop - loss range of 17,100 - 17,600 [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: Domestic futures prices of Shanghai lead decreased compared with last week, while foreign futures prices increased, and the ratio decreased. As of October 30, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures closing price was $2,022 per ton, the lead futures closing price (active contract) was 17,350 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.584 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: Domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, and foreign premium and discount also strengthened. As of October 30, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 160 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - $33.99 per ton [12][14]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign lead inventory decreased, domestic inventory increased, warehouse receipt quantity decreased, and overall lead inventory decreased. As of October 23, 2025, the total lead inventory was 27,900 tons (up 1,800 tons), the total LME lead inventory was 224,175 tons (down 11,200 tons), and the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai lead was 21,645 tons (down 2,089 tons) [31][35]. 3. Industry Situation - **Supply - Side**: - **Primary Lead**: As of October 23, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major production areas was 82.65% (up 1.01% from last week), and the weekly output was 39,600 tons (up 500 tons from last week) [18][20]. - **Secondary Lead**: As of October 23, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 51.88% (up 3.8% month - on - month), and the output in major domestic production areas was 22,500 tons (up 2,900 tons month - on - month) [25][29]. - **Imports and Exports**: In September 2025, refined lead exports decreased by 43.62% month - on - month and increased by 408.31% year - on - year. Refined lead imports decreased by 17.17% month - on - month and 94.69% year - on - year. Lead alloy imports were 12,784 tons. Lead concentrate imports increased by 11.72% month - on - month and decreased by 7.21% year - on - year. Lead ingot imports were 12,000 tons (up 1,200 tons month - on - month, an increase of 11.11%, and down 22,600 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 65.33%) [37][39]. - **Demand - Side**: - **Processing Fees**: As of October 23, 2025, the national average processing fee of lead concentrate was 380 yuan per ton, and the average processing fee of imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $90 per thousand tons [41][43]. - **Automobile Market**: In September 2025, overall automobile sales were 3.226 million (up 12.9% month - on - month and 14.9% year - on - year). New energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million (up 24.6% year - on - year). The growth of new energy vehicles may lead to a decline in lead demand [45][48]. - **Recycling and Product Prices**: As of October 30, 2025, the average price of waste lead batteries (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 19,410 yuan per ton [50][53].

Group 1: Report Summary - The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.68% [5][17] - In the first half of October 2025, the sugar cane crushing and sugar production progress in the central - southern region of Brazil slowed down significantly. As of October 16, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season increased by 0.89% year - on - year [5] - In the domestic market, the forecasted arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in October is expected to decrease month - on - month. Due to news about syrups and premixes, there is support at the lower level, but the loose supply - demand situation still pressures the sugar market. In the short term, sugar prices will mainly operate at a low level [5] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5] - Future factors to watch include domestic production and sales, and new - season production forecasts [6] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market International Market - The international raw sugar spot price this week was 14.1 cents per pound, down 0.62 cents per pound from last week [15] Domestic Futures Market - The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.68% [5][17] - The net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures this week was - 57,848 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 7,530 [23] - The price difference between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures this week was + 70 yuan/ton, and the basis of spot - Zhengzhou sugar was + 257 yuan/ton [28] Domestic Spot Market - As of October 31, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,760 yuan/ton, in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,740 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,710 yuan/ton [34] - This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,790 yuan/ton, up 176 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 509 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,512 yuan/ton, up 206 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 432 yuan/ton, up 267 yuan/ton from last week [40] Group 3: Industry Chain Supply Side - As of the end of September 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [44][56] - As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% [47] - In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 280,000 tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.89% [51] Demand Side - As of the end of September 2025, sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar - making season had all stopped crushing [56] - In September 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 539,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 15.9167 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [60] Group 4: Option and Stock - Futures Correlation Market Option Market - This week's implied volatility of at - the - money options in the sugar option market is presented in the relevant chart [62] Stock Market - The price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is presented in the relevant chart [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the port methanol market weakened, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2170 - 2270 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2180 - 2260 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market continued to decline, with the price in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranging from 2010 - 2040 yuan/ton. Due to squeezed downstream profits, high supply, and high inventory, enterprises mainly reduced prices to attract orders [7]. - Recently, the domestic methanol production has decreased as the loss of production capacity from maintenance and production cuts exceeded the output from restored production. Although the enterprise shipment rhythm is okay, the inventory of some enterprises has increased significantly due to the suspension of individual MTO long - term contracts. The port methanol inventory has a narrow fluctuation, and it is expected to accumulate next week as the demand has not improved significantly. The overall operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry decreased this week but is expected to increase next week [7]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2150 - 2250 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Port methanol prices weakened, and inland prices continued to fall. Enterprises cut prices to attract orders due to high supply, high inventory, and squeezed downstream profits [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production decreased, enterprise inventory increased, port inventory may accumulate, and the methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate is expected to rise [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2150 - 2250 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a - 4.05% change in the main contract price [10]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of October 31, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 80 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 30, there were 11,997 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 2095 from last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: As of October 30, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2020 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67.5 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Foreign Spot Prices**: As of October 30, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 257 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 67 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from last week [34]. - **Basis**: As of October 30, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from last week [39]. 3.4 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of October 29, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of October 30, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.06 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.72 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [43]. - **Industry**: As of October 30, China's methanol production was 1,968,095 tons, an increase of 24,630 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 86.73%, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. As of October 29, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 376,100 tons, an increase of 15,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.36%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 215,600 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. The total Chinese methanol port inventory was 1.5065 million tons, a decrease of 5700 tons from the previous data. In September 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4269 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.92%; from January to September 2025, the cumulative methanol imports were 9.6667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.94%. As of October 30, the methanol import profit was - 31.15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.67 yuan/ton from last week [47][52][55]. - **Downstream**: As of October 30, the domestic methanol - to - olefins device capacity utilization rate was 91.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. As of October 31, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 750 yuan/ton, an increase of 204 yuan/ton from last week [58][61]. 3.5 Options Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the provided content