天风证券股份有限公司孙潇雅,张童童近期对亿纬锂能进行研究并发布了研究报告《储能高增持续，消费、动 力保持增长》，给予亿纬锂能买入评级。 亿纬锂能(300014) 公司2024Q4/2025Q1重回收入和利润的正增长，具体经营结果数据如下：?24年：收入486亿，YOY-0.4%，归 母/扣非净利润41/32亿元，YOY+0.6%/15%。 24Q4：收入146亿，YOY+10%，QOQ+18%，归母/扣非净利润8.9/6.6亿元，YOY+42%/10%，QOQ- 16%/-34%。 25Q1：收入128亿元，YOY+37%，QOQ-12%，归母净利润11亿元，YOY+3%，QOQ+24%，扣非净利润8.2亿 元，YOY+17%，QOQ+24%。公司2024年分板块经营情况如下： 投资建议：考虑到公司24年利润微增，我们下调25-26年归母净利润为53、70亿元（上次预期67、83亿元）， 预计27年实现归母净利润92亿元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：电动车销量不及预期、储能需求不及预期、动力&储电池价格下降超预期、行业竞争加剧 最新盈利预测明细如下： | 报告日期 | 机构简称 | 研究员 | 沂三年业绩 ...

Market Performance - The market rebounded last week, with the China Securities Index rising by 1.99% to 1650.47 points [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.92%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.29%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.27% [2] Strong Stock Performances - Notable strong performers included: - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) up by 13.55% - Shanghai Jahwa (600315) up by 9.31% - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760) up by 8.25% - CATL (300750) up by 7.24% - Beitaini (300957) up by 6.01% [2] - Other stocks such as Hisense Home Appliances (000921), EVE Energy (300014), and Stone Technology saw gains exceeding 5% [2] Year-to-Date Stock Performance - Since the beginning of 2025, Shanghai Jahwa has surged by 51.39%, leading the gains [3] - Marumi Bio (603983) follows with a 50.59% increase, while Xintai (002294) and Anji Technology have both risen over 30% [3] Market Outlook - Positive factors are emerging as the market stabilizes, with expectations for gradual recovery in investor sentiment and stock performance [4] - The domestic economy is on a steady recovery path, supported by ongoing policy efforts [4] - The current A-share market is viewed as being in a high cost-performance zone, indicating medium to long-term investment value [4] - However, short-term market movements may remain volatile unless strong driving factors emerge [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering a slight profit increase in 2024 and projecting net profits of 5.31 billion CNY in 2025 and 9.2 billion CNY in 2027 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to return to positive revenue and profit growth in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant contributions from its energy storage segment and continued growth in consumer and power battery sectors [1][2]. - In 2024, the company anticipates a slight decline in revenue to 48.61 billion CNY, with a projected net profit of 4.08 billion CNY, followed by a strong recovery in 2025 with revenues reaching 65.63 billion CNY and net profits of 5.32 billion CNY [4][11]. - The company achieved a remarkable 91.90% year-on-year increase in energy storage battery shipments, solidifying its position as the second-largest global supplier in this segment [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2023: Revenue of 48.78 billion CNY, net profit of 4.05 billion CNY - 2024: Revenue of 48.61 billion CNY, net profit of 4.08 billion CNY - 2025E: Revenue of 65.63 billion CNY, net profit of 5.32 billion CNY - 2026E: Revenue of 88.60 billion CNY, net profit of 6.99 billion CNY - 2027E: Revenue of 115.18 billion CNY, net profit of 9.16 billion CNY [4][11][12]. - **Growth Rates**: - Revenue growth rates are projected at -0.35% for 2024, 35% for 2025, and 30% for 2026 [4][11]. - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 0.63% in 2024, 30.43% in 2025, and 31.42% in 2026 [4][11]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 21.88 in 2023 to 9.68 by 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [4][12]. - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 7.95% by 2027 [12]. Segment Performance - **Consumer Batteries**: - The consumer battery segment is expected to generate 103 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 23% and a gross margin of 27.6% [10]. - **Energy Storage Batteries**: - The energy storage segment is projected to achieve 190 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, with a gross margin of 14.7% [10]. - **Power Batteries**: - The power battery segment is forecasted to generate 192 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, despite a year-on-year decline of 20% [10].

Core Viewpoint - EVE Energy has launched its first commercial vehicle battery technology day and introduced the third-generation open-source battery, focusing on operational capability and profitability for commercial vehicle users [1][4]. Group 1: Product Offerings - EVE Energy introduced eight flagship products designed for various commercial vehicle scenarios, including logistics vans, light trucks, buses, and construction machinery [1][2]. - The LF125P-41.86kWh battery targets the micro-van market, offering a charging time of just 18 minutes for SOC 20%-80% and an 8-year warranty for 600,000 kilometers [1]. - The LM254-160kWh battery for light trucks supports a range of 400 kilometers and maintains 85% energy efficiency at -20℃, with a system energy density of 180Wh/kg [2]. - The LF324S-43.8kWh battery for buses features a 10-year warranty for 1 million kilometers and a system energy density of 170Wh/kg [2]. - The LF628-350kWh battery for construction machinery boasts a high integration with 200Wh/L and a lifespan of 6000 cycles [2]. Group 2: Heavy-Duty Truck Solutions - The LF230P-453kWh battery for short-haul heavy trucks can charge from SOC 10%-80% in 18 minutes, potentially generating an annual operational increase of 50,000 yuan for users [3]. - The LF668-448kWh battery offers a high integration design, reducing weight by 0.5 tons and potentially increasing annual earnings by 12,000 yuan per vehicle over a 6-year lifecycle [3]. - The LF420-563kWh battery features a low height of 248mm, ensuring visibility while meeting the needs of short-haul transport [3]. - The LM284-851kWh battery provides a range of 700 kilometers and can save users up to 500,000 yuan over five years compared to fuel trucks [3]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - EVE Energy's batteries utilize the LMX chemical material system, achieving a 25% increase in system capacity while reducing component count by 50% [4]. - The third-generation 3D liquid cooling technology enhances battery lifespan by 20%, maintaining a maximum temperature of 42℃ and a temperature difference of 5℃ across the system [4]. Group 4: Industry Context - The electric transformation of new energy commercial vehicles is attracting numerous battery manufacturers, with EVE Energy competing against companies like CATL, BYD, and Zhongchuang Xinhang [4]. - The recent product launch by EVE Energy is expected to accelerate the electrification of commercial vehicles, intensifying competition in this sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - The event marked the launch of EVE Energy's first commercial vehicle battery technology day, showcasing the company's commitment to advancing electric vehicle technology and collaboration with industry partners [2][4]. Group 1: Market Insights - The global and Chinese new energy commercial vehicle market is at a critical turning point, with a penetration rate of 20% in China, indicating a phase of rapid growth [4]. - The penetration rate for new energy vans has surpassed 40%, aligning closely with the passenger vehicle market, while new energy light trucks are approaching a 20% penetration rate [4]. Group 2: Product Launch and Innovations - EVE Energy introduced eight new open-source battery products designed for various commercial vehicle applications, emphasizing a comprehensive solution for logistics, heavy trucks, buses, and construction machinery [6][8]. - The LF125P-41.86kWh battery targets the urban logistics market, while the LM254-160kWh battery addresses the challenges of light trucks, focusing on reducing empty load energy consumption [8]. - In the bus sector, the LF324S-43.8kWh battery aims to solve the "vehicle and battery lifespan mismatch" issue, offering a warranty of 10 years or 1 million kilometers [9]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - EVE Energy's open-source battery system features five core technologies, including cell upgrades that enhance energy density and reduce charging time in low temperatures [11]. - The integration of advanced cooling technology and safety standards surpassing national regulations ensures improved performance and longevity of the battery systems [11]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships - EVE Energy signed strategic cooperation agreements with key industry partners, indicating a collaborative approach to enhance the commercial vehicle battery ecosystem [13].

Industry Overview - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in China has reached 20%, entering a phase of rapid growth, with new energy VAN penetration exceeding 40% and new energy light trucks approaching 20% [2] - The electric engineering machinery market is expected to exceed 80GWh by 2030, becoming the third growth pole after passenger and commercial vehicles [2] - New energy commercial vehicle exports are anticipated to experience a new growth curve [2] Company Developments - EVE Energy, one of the earliest developers and manufacturers of commercial vehicle batteries, is promoting the electrification of buses, logistics vehicles, heavy trucks, and engineering machinery [2] - On May 9, EVE Energy launched eight open-source battery products designed for various commercial vehicle applications, from micro-vans to heavy trucks and engineering machinery [3] Product Innovations - The eight open-source battery products are set to be completed in development this year and will gradually enter mass production next year [4] - EVE Energy's open-source batteries focus on operational capability and profitability for commercial vehicle users, aiming to maximize user returns through technological innovation [4] - The LF125P-41.86kWh battery for urban logistics can achieve a charging time of only 18 minutes from SOC 20% to 80% and offers an 8-year warranty for 600,000 kilometers [5] - The LM254-160kWh battery, designed for light trucks, supports a range of 400 kilometers and maintains 85% energy efficiency in low-temperature environments [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that over twenty chairpersons of energy storage companies in the A-share market have annual salaries exceeding one million yuan, with nearly half of these companies experiencing year-on-year salary growth [1][2] - The top ten highest-paid chairpersons in the energy storage sector for 2024 include prominent figures such as Wang Chuanfu from BYD, Nan Cunhui from Chint Electric, and Zeng Yuqun from CATL, with salaries ranging from 765.50 million yuan to 225.83 million yuan [1][2] - Among the top ten chairpersons, 70% experienced a year-on-year salary increase, with the fastest-growing salaries seen in companies like Funeng Technology and Xinnengda, both exceeding a 50% increase [2] Group 2 - CATL reported a revenue of 362.01 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 9.70% year-on-year, while its net profit attributable to shareholders reached 50.75 billion yuan, marking a 15.01% increase, translating to a daily profit of 139 million yuan [2] - Zeng Yuqun, despite being among the top three highest-paid chairpersons, saw a decline in his salary to 5.743 million yuan, down 10.36% from 6.4065 million yuan in 2023 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid growth of the new energy commercial vehicle market in China, with a penetration rate reaching 20%, indicating a significant development opportunity driven by technological advancements and innovative applications [3][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in China has reached 20%, marking the beginning of a high-growth phase [6]. - The penetration rate for new energy VANs has surpassed 40%, aligning with the growth momentum seen in the passenger vehicle market [7]. - In the new energy light truck sector, the penetration rate is close to 20%, with increasing demand for high-capacity models driven by intercity logistics in regions like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Sichuan-Chongqing [8]. Group 2: Product Launches - EVE Energy launched eight new "open-source battery" products aimed at various commercial vehicle applications, focusing on faster charging, lighter weight, longer lifespan, and better cost efficiency [4][10]. - The LF125P-41.86kWh battery targets the micro-van market, offering rapid charging capabilities and an 8-year warranty [12]. - The LM254-160kWh battery for light trucks supports a range of 400 kilometers and maintains high energy efficiency even in low temperatures [12]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - EVE Energy's new battery series is supported by five core technologies, including advanced lithium iron phosphate chemistry, which enhances energy density and charging efficiency [18]. - The integration of third-generation liquid cooling technology allows for precise temperature control, improving battery lifespan by 20% [18]. - The company employs AI and cloud technology for remote monitoring and predictive maintenance of battery systems, enhancing operational efficiency [19]. Group 4: Strategic Collaborations - EVE Energy signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Haihua Chuangye, expanding its ecosystem in the new energy commercial vehicle sector [20]. - The company collaborates with various industry players, including Huawei for ultra-fast charging technology and major commercial vehicle manufacturers like SANY and Dongfeng [21]. - Through product launches and strategic partnerships, EVE Energy aims to accelerate its market expansion and technological implementation in the new energy commercial vehicle industry [23].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the new energy sector, suggesting a bottoming out phase and waiting for a new cycle to emerge [1]. Core Insights - Lithium battery sector is entering a new cycle with opportunities, showing signs of profit recovery in Q1 2025 after a significant decline in 2024 [3][7]. - The photovoltaic sector is expected to see gradual improvement in supply and demand dynamics, with new technologies anticipated to benefit the industry [3][4]. - The wind power sector remains in a high-growth phase, with performance expected to continue improving [3][4]. - Investment recommendations focus on three main lines: true growth companies, cyclical recovery, and new technologies [3]. Summary by Sections Lithium Batteries - In 2024, 53 sample companies achieved a total net profit of 58.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63%. In Q1 2025, net profit reached 18.6 billion yuan, up 36% year-on-year and 41% quarter-on-quarter [6][7]. - The lithium battery sector is stabilizing with new product releases and a recovery in profitability observed in Q1 2025 [11][12]. - Different segments within the lithium battery industry are experiencing varied profitability, with downstream segments like batteries and structural components showing positive trends [11][12]. Photovoltaics - The supply-demand situation is gradually improving, with industry self-discipline expected to enhance the market dynamics [3][4]. - Key players in the silicon material segment are likely to recover profitability first due to their cost advantages [3]. - New technologies, such as BC technology, are anticipated to be released in 2025, benefiting equipment and material companies [3]. Wind Power - In 2024, 31 sample companies reported a total net profit of 13.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. In Q1 2025, net profit was 3.29 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The wind power sector is expected to see significant growth in installations, particularly in the offshore segment as construction peaks in Q2 2025 [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. True growth companies such as Ningde Times and EVE Energy [3]. 2. Companies poised for cyclical recovery like Hunan Youneng and Fulin Precision [3]. 3. New technology firms such as Xiamen Tungsten and Rongbai Technology [3]. - Supply-side reforms are also highlighted, with companies like Tongwei and Longi Green Energy being key players [3].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the China Securities New Energy Vehicle Index has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline in the index value despite a notable increase over the past month [2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities New Energy Vehicle Index has decreased by 0.27%, closing at 2952.77 points with a trading volume of 27.231 billion yuan [1]. - Over the past month, the index has increased by 11.17%, while it has decreased by 3.61% over the last three months and has risen by 3.04% year-to-date [2]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index includes companies involved in lithium batteries, charging stations, and new energy vehicles, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies [2]. - The top ten weighted companies in the index are BYD (13.47%), Huichuan Technology (11.56%), CATL (9.64%), Sanhua Intelligent Control (4.86%), Yiwei Lithium Energy (4.34%), Huayou Cobalt (3.87%), Ganfeng Lithium (2.83%), Greenmeadows (2.6%), Tianqi Lithium (2.46%), and Hongfa Technology (2.23%) [2]. Group 3: Market and Sector Distribution - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (82.93%), followed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange (16.47%) and the Beijing Stock Exchange (0.60%) [2]. - In terms of industry distribution, the index comprises 56.65% in industrials, 24.48% in consumer discretionary, 17.70% in materials, and 1.18% in information technology [2]. Group 4: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3]. - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [3].